The Stretch Drive

[thebus2288*]

It's simple. There are 11-12 forwards on this team that are better and give our team a higher chance of winning than with Umberger in. I just hate he's been thrown into our top 6 and on the PP for so long. The "chemistry" he's had with Johansen is actually Foligno and RyJo carrying him on their backs earlier in the year.

 

[SuperGenius]

It's simple. There are 11-12 forwards on this team that are better and give our team a higher chance of winning than with Umberger in. I just hate he's been thrown into our top 6 and on the PP for so long. The "chemistry" he's had with Johansen is actually Foligno and RyJo carrying him on their backs earlier in the year.

So I guess the 18 goals and 33 points are a figment of our imaginations then?

 

[1857 Howitzer]

It's simple. There are 11-12 forwards on this team that are better and give our team a higher chance of winning than with Umberger in. I just hate he's been thrown into our top 6 and on the PP for so long. The "chemistry" he's had with Johansen is actually Foligno and RyJo carrying him on their backs earlier in the year.

I would love to see this list of 11-12 forwards with supporting data showing how they are better then Umberger.

Is RJ a top 4 forward? No, but he's sure not the number 11 or 12 forward in this organization ether.

 

[Crede777]

I'd take these forwards over Umberger:
Johansen
Anisimov
Foligno
Jenner
Atkinson (I have faith in the kid and he has looked good to me if not to Richards)
Dubinsky
Horton (Very similar in impact but slightly better)
and Mackenzie (He's invaluable for what he brings at the cost)

Calvert and Letestu are washes IMO.

I would NOT take Comeau, Tropp, Frattin or Boll over him.

That puts him about 8th-10th in my opinion.

Jenner - Johansen - <Player Needed>
Foligno - Anisimov - Horton
Calvert - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Umberger - Letestu - Mackenzie
Comeau

 

[1857 Howitzer]

Half of your list are centers not forwards and putting Horton above RJ (based on this season) is funny.

 

[blahblah]

Half of your list are centers not forwards.

Am I missing something? Centers are forwards. Centers and wings are forwards. Did you mean wings?

 

[Crede777]

Half of your list are centers not forwards and putting Horton above RJ (based on this season) is funny.

I even admitted Horton is similar to Umberger in impact but plays a slightly better game... What's funny is if you disagree with this assessment as I'm guessing you're in the vast minority.

 

[1857 Howitzer]

Am I missing something? Centers are forwards. Centers and wings are forwards. Did you mean wings?

Been a long day.

 

[Xoggz22]

When your PROD is around 60 minutes for the month of March, for a supposed top six forward, you leave yourself exposed. Anything over around 32 or 33 is getting bad. 58 minutes is just terrible.

Even with that terrible production he was still a plus 3 for the month. Imagine what it would have been had he picked up another goal and a few assists?

I like RJ; but he's prime for an amnesty buyout (or are those done? I thought there was another offseason for those?) if we can't trade him and retain some of the salary.

This is the last off season for an amnesty buyout. The better option is getting him to waive his NTC (maybe this is writing on the wall for him and a little pressure for upcoming discussions this off season?) and retain some salary in a move.

I too like RJ but for his pay grade we simply aren't getting a full 200 ft game from him. I don't think he's bought out as the CBJ don't seem like a team willing to just eat cash.

 

[Robert]

Am I missing something? Centers are forwards. Centers and wings are forwards. Did you mean wings?

OT: not Wild Wings, they are horrible...

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Nice summary. A couple of quick notes.

I don't think Erixon has a higher offensive upside than Murray.

Second you really didn't mention Jenner. 13 goals in the rookie campaign is impressive. It's safe to say that we're not quite sure what we'll have in Jenner in 4 or 5 years. It's probably safe to say that, at a minimum, you're going to have a really nasty 2nd/3rd line power forward scoring 20-25 goals a year. I'm leaning more toward a 25-30 goal guy. He is going to create a lot of space for the upcoming skill guys. What would be entertaining is to see him center Cam and Calvert sometime next season (If we're up by 3 goals in the 3rd, I would like to see it some this season).

I agree with you about Murray and Jenner for the most part. I think we have a tendency to underrate Murray's offensive potential. The way he sees the ice makes me believe he will develop into a very good offensive player, while remaining strong in his own end.

Why do you want to see Jenner centering Atkinson and Calvert?

 

[EspenK]

This is the last off season for an amnesty buyout. The better option is getting him to waive his NTC (maybe this is writing on the wall for him and a little pressure for upcoming discussions this off season?) and retain some salary in a move.

I too like RJ but for his pay grade we simply aren't getting a full 200 ft game from him. I don't think he's bought out as the CBJ don't seem like a team willing to just eat cash.

I think we overestimate the reluctance to pay out a buyout.

What this team really needs is a top 6 forward capable of improving the offense. Most of us will agree that Umbie is not that guy. So we save 3 mill a year by exercising a compliance on him and use that to offset the cost of the top 6 acquisition.

We keep Tropp/Comeau/Skile at no additional cost to the organization to replace Umbie on the roster. In three years when the savings are gone we are still on the hook for 1.5 mill but hopefully by then it is a non-issue, even if it might be one now.

 

[major major]

Nice summary. A couple of quick notes.

I don't think Erixon has a higher offensive upside than Murray.

Second you really didn't mention Jenner. 13 goals in the rookie campaign is impressive. It's safe to say that we're not quite sure what we'll have in Jenner in 4 or 5 years. It's probably safe to say that, at a minimum, you're going to have a really nasty 2nd/3rd line power forward scoring 20-25 goals a year. I'm leaning more toward a 25-30 goal guy. He is going to create a lot of space for the upcoming skill guys. What would be entertaining is to see him center Cam and Calvert sometime next season (If we're up by 3 goals in the 3rd, I would like to see it some this season).

I wouldn't be surprised if Erixon and Murray both end up as 40 pt defencemen.

And Jenner makes a damn good power winger too, so I wouldn't mind keeping him at wing, which allows him to run around leveling guys a lot more. He plays like Lucic, not as big but very well built.

I think when envisioning the future C's (Johansen-Wennberg-Jenner), let's not forget that Dubinsky and Anisimov are still young, and it's not clear that Wennberg and Jenner would make better centers or make better centers than wingers. Sometimes you want a more veteran guy to handle the middle. Anyways, we'll all have plenty of time to talk about this and sort this out years down the road.

 

[Viqsi]

I think we overestimate the reluctance to pay out a buyout.

What this team really needs is a top 6 forward capable of improving the offense. Most of us will agree that Umbie is not that guy. So we save 3 mill a year by exercising a compliance on him and use that to offset the cost of the top 6 acquisition.

We keep Tropp/Comeau/Skile at no additional cost to the organization to replace Umbie on the roster. In three years when the savings are gone we are still on the hook for 1.5 mill but hopefully by then it is a non-issue, even if it might be one now.

There's no "cost" that needs to be saved. Gaborik's gone and the cap is going up, and most of our extensions are depth players. I mean, unless we anticipate Johansen's next contract being an NHL max contract, a buyout isn't strictly necessary.

I mean, if the concern was contract count, or roster space, I could sort of see that, although I don't think Umby would be the first choice since he *does* score goals more often than most. But "cap hit" strikes me as a bit silly if we're only targeting one big add or two moderate ones. (And if we want one big and one moderate, then at that point I submit we're chasing the grass on the other side of the fence by buying out Umby.)


EDIT: Forgot to mention. Some of those depth extensions I mentioned do, in fact, include Tropp, Comeau, and Skille. Combined right now, before extensions, they have about just under half the cap hit of RJ ($2.2m to $4.6m). They also have half the goal production, with 9 goals (2 for Tropp, 3 for Comeau, 4 for Skille) to RJ's 18. Would seem like a nice group deal, except I thought we were trying to consolidate our talent a little more.

I maintain that Umberger is still much more valuable on our "third second line" than he is bought out.

 

[Crede777]

It is strange, Viqsi, that my valuation of the forwards seems to be the opposite of the franchise's (swapping Umberger and Skille in one).

I would rank them Umberger > Skille > Comeau > Tropp.
Seems the organization ranks them Tropp > Comeau > Umberger > Skille

That said, I've seen numerous reports that Umberger is a likely buyout candidate this offseason.

 

[blahblah]

I maintain that Umberger is still much more valuable on our "third second line" than he is bought out.

I don't mind RJ; I'm just struggling to see what he adds. At some point we need to improve our offense and someone is going to be the causality. I look down the list of top nine forwards and decide who I want to keep; RJ really isn't making a case to stay on that list.

Your top nine forwards are.

Johansen
Horton
Jenner
Dubinsky
Foligno
AA
RJ
Atkinson
Calvert

If you are working on the premise that you aren't simply going to grow (enough) organically (a lot of these players are near peak and our top forward prospects are probably two to three years away); if you add a free agent who is the odd man out? If it's a trade it's a little different obviously (although a forward is still on the move).

 

[EspenK]

Blah states the case for moving Umbie very well. He is the odd man out and is too expensive to be on the 4th line and I don't think he fits there either. So for me, its either trade him if he'd waive or compliance him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

There is no way we amnesty Umberger. Being amnestied to me says you cannot play anymore. Not being worth your contract is one thing, but RJ is a well liked player in the room. I don't see any scenario where we amnesty him.

That being said, I could see him requesting a trade in the offseason, and I bet we could get something for him. He's been pretty good this year.

 

[major major]

There is no way we amnesty Umberger. Being amnestied to me says you cannot play anymore. Not being worth your contract is one thing, but RJ is a well liked player in the room. I don't see any scenario where we amnesty him.

That being said, I could see him requesting a trade in the offseason, and I bet we could get something for him. He's been pretty good this year.

Can't play anymore? Tell that to Vinny Lecavalier. Tell that to either Brad Richards or Rick Nash next year. Players a lot better than RJ are getting bought out.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Can't play anymore? Tell that to Vinny Lecavalier. Tell that to either Brad Richards or Rick Nash next year. Players a lot better than RJ are getting bought out.

Different scenario with VL. He was being paid like a superstar when he was a 2nd liner now. If RJ had a 7.7 million cap hit for 7 more years then I would think it would be possible.

 

[major major]

Different scenario with VL. He was being paid like a superstar when he was a 2nd liner now. If RJ had a 7.7 million cap hit for 7 more years then I would think it would be possible.

Look back at your argument that I responded to.

 

[muleskinner2013]

I don't know what they will do with Umberger in the off season and don't care right now. He is being payed to be an impact veteran player THIS season and he needs to start doing it. Richards needs to play him instead of Horton and see if he can light a fire down this stretch run. If he can't do it then deal with it later. He has more in the tank right now than Horton does.

 

[EspenK]

There is no way we amnesty Umberger. Being amnestied to me says you cannot play anymore. Not being worth your contract is one thing, but RJ is a well liked player in the room. I don't see any scenario where we amnesty him.

That being said, I could see him requesting a trade in the offseason, and I bet we could get something for him. He's been pretty good this year.

I think with him as I said before its a fit issue. Where does he fit?

With Joey & Jenner? No.


With Foligno-Arty-Horton? (can't have 4 guys)

Calvert-Dubi-CAM

Letestu-D-Mac-Boll? No

13th F? No.

So it's either trade him or compliance. If it is not, I'll be amazed.

I suppose one argument is to move Horton up a line and put him on the 2nd line. To me that says we are standing pat, which to me is a bad option.

 

[blahblah]

The perception of amnesty meaning "Can't play anymore" isn't accurate. It just a buyout like any other buyout. It's just a special case related to the lowering cap because of the new CBA. Teams have bought out players for varying reasons. Not all of them because their careers are done.

I don't think we'll amnesty him (even if we probably should IMHO). Not because of if he can play or not. More like if he is playing at the level of his current contract (he's not) and his overall contribution to the team. What is he offering that we aren't getting with other players? In addition I don't think the owner has the stomach to spend all that cash and get nothing tangible on the ice out of it.

He's got some goal this year, but his overall game isn't where it was when Hitch was the head coach (not saying Hitch was the reason; just time frame for reference).

We really aren't under cap pressure; however we might be under roster slot pressure.

 

[EspenK]

The perception of amnesty meaning "Can't play anymore" isn't accurate. It just a buyout like any other buyout. It's just a special case related to the lowering cap because of the new CBA. Teams have bought out players for varying reasons. Not all of them because their careers are done.

I don't think we'll amnesty him (even if we probably should IMHO). Not because of if he can play or not. More like if he is playing at the level of his current contract (he's not) and his overall contribution to the team. What is he offering that we aren't getting with other players? In addition I don't think the owner has the stomach to spend all that cash and get nothing tangible on the ice out of it.

He's got some goal this year, but his overall game isn't where it was when Hitch was the head coach (not saying Hitch was the reason; just time frame for reference).

We really aren't under cap pressure; however we might be under roster slot pressure.

I continue to believe that is the big issue. As you said earlier (or in another thread) his fit is a big question.