The Stretch Drive

[Iron Balls McGinty]

here is how it ultimately shakes down in my opinion as of today.

Last night was a key win for many reasons but mostly that it now puts the team's destiny back in their own hands.

CBJ - 10 games remain - 32 ROW
DET - 10 games remain - 28 ROW
WAS - 9 games remain - 25 ROW
TOR - 8 games remain - 27 ROW

There are the only teams that matter right now. I find it improbable that they will catch NYR or PHI due to the point gaps. The CBJ simply need to stay 1 game up on WAS and TOR due to the games in hand. I will use a 6-4 record over the remaining schedule as something realistic and achievable. Frankly in my opinion of the CBJ can't do better than 5-5 over these last 10, they don't deserve to make the playoffs. 6-4 is not a world beater pace but realistically achievable.

TOR only has a potential to gain 16 more points if they were to win out. We all know the likelihood of that happening is almost none, especially considering their weakness is their D. Unless they go 6-2 or better in their final 8, it might be safe to count them out and even then it might not be enough. The CBJ could go 6-4 to finish the season and would still hold a tie breaker over TOR.

WAS holds a bit more of their destiny in hand but the CBJ still have 1 more opportunity to gain 1 more point than them. It could quickly be a 3 team race between WAS, DET, and CBJ for the final spot but since DET and CBJ have a game in hand AND tiebreakers over WAS, the Caps will really have to play out of their mind in order to get one of the final 2 spots. If the CBJ or DET go 6-4 over their final 10, WAS would have to go 7-2 (or 6-2-1) over than span to top them.

After the NYI game, I thought they were done. Now seeing how other teams have put themselves into the position to create the 4 way tie last night I have a bit of a new perspective. odds seem really in the favor of CBJ and DET getting the final 2 spots but WAS and TOR will have to play at a higher level as well as either the CBJ or DET allowing them the opportunity to take the spot.

In the words of Al Davis, "Just Win Baby!"

Just win 6 out of the final 10 and their chances are still pretty good.

 

[Nordique]

here is how it ultimately shakes down in my opinion as of today.

Last night was a key win for many reasons but mostly that it now puts the team's destiny back in their own hands.

CBJ - 10 games remain - 32 ROW
DET - 10 games remain - 28 ROW
WAS - 9 games remain - 25 ROW
TOR - 8 games remain - 27 ROW

There are the only teams that matter right now. I find it improbable that they will catch NYR or PHI due to the point gaps. The CBJ simply need to stay 1 game up on WAS and TOR due to the games in hand. I will use a 6-4 record over the remaining schedule as something realistic and achievable. Frankly in my opinion of the CBJ can't do better than 5-5 over these last 10, they don't deserve to make the playoffs. 6-4 is not a world beater pace but realistically achievable.

TOR only has a potential to gain 16 more points if they were to win out. We all know the likelihood of that happening is almost none, especially considering their weakness is their D. Unless they go 6-2 or better in their final 8, it might be safe to count them out and even then it might not be enough. The CBJ could go 6-4 to finish the season and would still hold a tie breaker over TOR.

WAS holds a bit more of their destiny in hand but the CBJ still have 1 more opportunity to gain 1 more point than them. It could quickly be a 3 team race between WAS, DET, and CBJ for the final spot but since DET and CBJ have a game in hand AND tiebreakers over WAS, the Caps will really have to play out of their mind in order to get one of the final 2 spots. If the CBJ or DET go 6-4 over their final 10, WAS would have to go 7-2 (or 6-2-1) over than span to top them.

After the NYI game, I thought they were done. Now seeing how other teams have put themselves into the position to create the 4 way tie last night I have a bit of a new perspective. odds seem really in the favor of CBJ and DET getting the final 2 spots but WAS and TOR will have to play at a higher level as well as either the CBJ or DET allowing them the opportunity to take the spot.

In the words of Al Davis, "Just Win Baby!"

Just win 6 out of the final 10 and their chances are still pretty good.

I still say watch for PHI and/or NYR to crash these last 8-10 games. My money is on PHI, and I think we jump back to 3rd in the Metro.

 

[Xoggz22]

Philly in regulation.

It would knock NYR down to 100 possible points, tied with CBJ and DET and two up on WSH.

NYR over PHI in regulation would put Philly at 103 possible and NYR at 102.

Great way to look at it. I hate the Rags so it really doesn't matter how I look at it.

 

[Bobcat110]

I still say watch for PHI and/or NYR to crash these last 8-10 games. My money is on PHI, and I think we jump back to 3rd in the Metro.

That'd be awesome. Let's do that

As Iron Balls said, 92 points looks to be the key minimum point level for a playoff spot now for CBJ (w/smaller possibility of 91 working). Washington, Detroit and Toronto would need 93 points to edge us.

6-4-0 or 5-3-2 would nearly guarantee a spot at 92 points.

Detroit would need to go 7-3 or 6-3-1 to edge us.

Toronto would need to go 6-1-1 or 7-1-0

Washington would need to go 6-2-1 or 5-1-3 or 7-2-0

 

[EspenK]

I think 90 could still get us in if you look at the game by game and see who Toronto,Wash & Detroit have to play but I agree that 92 probably will be needed barring an unbelievable Jackets circa 2013-like finish by two of the opponents.In which case I think we're toast.

 

[blahblah]

Well the Flyers could take out the Rangers today (doesn't matter to me too much either way there). However you sure want the Flyers to take out Toronto on Friday.

Detroit or Toronto is going to get a win on Saturday.

We'll see if Boston can do what some of the other elite teams haven't been able to do. Beat the team we are contending with. They've got Washington and the Flyers on Friday/Saturday.

 

[blahblah]

I think 90 could still get us in if you look at the game by game and see who Toronto,Wash & Detroit have to play but I agree that 92 probably will be needed barring an unbelievable Jackets circa 2013-like finish by two of the opponents.In which case I think we're toast.

90 points is around 50/50. Anything more than that and we're almost guaranteed.

Well within our wheel-house. They just need to finish what they started.

 

[CBJRzeznik]

I still say watch for PHI and/or NYR to crash these last 8-10 games. My money is on PHI, and I think we jump back to 3rd in the Metro.

I agree and am still hopeful that one will hit a cold streak. The odds would be PHI based on their schedule and relying on Mase However, I have been thinking the same thing for 2 weeks now and, of course, instead that both went on big winning streaks.

 

[blahblah]

Mason has a been a bit inconsistent this month; but when the Flyers are scoring 4 goals a game it kind of doesn't matter.

Will be interesting to see what happens if the Flyers cool down on the goal scoring a bit.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Mason has a been a bit inconsistent this month; but when the Flyers are scoring 4 goals a game it kind of does matter.

Will be interesting to see what happens if the Flyers cool down on the goal scoring a bit.

Yeah, I happened to notice that Mason's save % over the last 30 days is something like .909 and the GAA was in the high 2.6 range. All it will take is a strong d team to cool down their offense and they can be scored on.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I predict all of Washington (goalies can only be so hot right?), Detroit (they have one guy scoring for them, can't imagine him keeping it up.) Philly (scoring alot, but not sure about this one), and NYR to fall back a bit. Whether we capitalize or not, IDK. But I can't see Toronto getting THAT much worse with their schedule.

 

[CBJRzeznik]

I predict all of Washington (goalies can only be so hot right?), Detroit (they have one guy scoring for them, can't imagine him keeping it up.) Philly (scoring alot, but not sure about this one), and NYR to fall back a bit. Whether we capitalize or not, IDK. But I can't see Toronto getting THAT much worse with their schedule.

I agree that all of these teams will fall back a bit. However, I could see TOR completely falling apart. I feel they are a very talented team but it appears they are having internal problems (players not buying into/poor fit for coach's system) and that combined with the enormous pressure of playing in that market could lead to implosion...we could always hope!!! Anything that gets CBJ in the playoffs!

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

When I look at the standings now, I can't help but think how much different things would be if the CBJ didn't have the 5 goal collapse against the Flyers in December. The CBJ would have been in 3rd with 82 and the Flyers would be in the wildcard at 81 if no other games would have been impacted by the Butterfly Effect.

The Flyers face both the Bruins and the Blues before facing the CBJ next Thursday. That game could potentially be a battle for 3rd with the Flyers then having to face the Bruins again after the CBJ game. That's going to potentially be a rough 4 game stretch for them.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

When I look at the standings now, I can't help but think how much different things would be if the CBJ didn't have the 5 goal collapse against the Flyers in December. The CBJ would have been in 3rd with 82 and the Flyers would be in the wildcard at 81 if no other games would have been impacted by the Butterfly Effect.

Throw in the @CAR collapse in the final 10 minutes, the game vs STL where we blew a 2 goal lead in the 3rd I believe to lose in OT, and the late 3rd collapse in Washington. Those points lost would be great

 

[Nanabijou]

I'm glad the Rangers beat the Flyers last night. We have one game left against the Flyers - win that one (in regulation) and get one more win than them in the other 9 games and we pass them. We have a tough schedule but that is do-able.

We want something that captures the attention of the casual Columbus hockey fan again? Any playoff game would be great, but a series against Nash and the rest of the Rangers (including Arniel, Brass, Dorsett, Stralman, Moore) would drive the attention-meter through the roof.

 

[SuperGenius]

9-5-1 in March. 2 up on WAS and TOR with 1 and 2 games in hand respectively.

 

[Bobcat110]

9-5-1 in March. 2 up on WAS and TOR with 1 and 2 games in hand respectively.

Our tiebreaker advantage is worth 1 point and if you figure a game in hand is worth a point, then our lead is closer to 4 points on Washington and 5 points on Toronto.

We may need it. Bring on the 8 games in 12 days

 

[CBJWerenski8]

As already discussed, if we get 10 points we're probably in. I think we could also get in with 8 or maybe even 7.

 

[Mayor Bee]

As already discussed, if we get 10 points we're probably in. I think we could also get in with 8 or maybe even 7.

For half the season, it looked like 94-96 would be necessary to make it.

Now, barring a hot streak from another team, 89 or 90 might do it. Strange.

 

[Cash for Nash]

9-5-1 in March. 2 up on WAS and TOR with 1 and 2 games in hand respectively.

Toronto is pretty much done. Best they can do is 92 pts if they go on a six game win streak. And we are well ahead of them on tiebreakers. They're in trouble.

NJ is too far back imo. Unless the perfect storm occurs and they go on a crazy streak and a couple teams completely tank.

Detroit is playing really well. I think they make it in.

Washington is the real threat here. I like the fact that we have the tiebreakers but their schedule isn't overly taxing (outside of STL). They are the real danger here to bump us out.

Tough week ahead for the CBJ. A big win to start the week (Colorado) would go a long way.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Toronto is pretty much done. Best they can do is 92 pts if they go on a six game win streak. And we are well ahead of them on tiebreakers. They're in trouble.

NJ is too far back imo. Unless the perfect storm occurs and they go on a crazy streak and a couple teams completely tank.

Detroit is playing really well. I think they make it in.

Washington is the real threat here. I like the fact that we have the tiebreakers but their schedule isn't overly taxing (outside of STL). They are the real danger here to bump us out.

Tough week ahead for the CBJ. A big win to start the week (Colorado) would go a long way.

Columbus and Detroit control their destiny in the wild card; each can finish with 98 points if they win out.

Washington can finish with 96; Columbus will hold the tiebreaker (WSH can match on R/OW, but CBJ holds head-to-head tiebreak).

New Jersey can finish with 93. Toronto and Ottawa can finish with 92, and they have one meeting against each other remaining.

 

[blahblah]

Washington is the real threat here. I like the fact that we have the tiebreakers but their schedule isn't overly taxing (outside of STL). They are the real danger here to bump us out.

I agree that they are the more dangerous threat; however they end with Chicago and Tampa. That's not an easy last two games. Those two teams could easily be fighting for home ice seeding for those games.

 

[JacketFanInFL]

In their next 4 games, Philly has Boston twice, St. Louis, and us.

Opportunity is there to move out of the Wild Card black hole.

 

[Robert]

It’s a three horse race for the two wild card spots now, Detroit/Columbus/Washington, the two teams with the best record in the last ten games of the season will make it.. (Toronto is playing so bad I've excluded them)

So far Detroit and the CBJ are in front....

 

[Mayor Bee]

Three big games tomorrow. Detroit plays Tampa Bay, Washington plays Nashville, and NY Rangers play Edmonton.