The Real JT
The percentage you’re paying is too high priced
Apparently, there's still hope for an improvement in overall global health.
The stock market thread.
- Thread starter Thucydides
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Apparently, there's still hope for an improvement in overall global health.
Thucydides
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- Dec 24, 2009
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JetsWillFly4Ever
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So many people are trying to get into buying stocks right now thinking it's easy money. This crash is far from over and though it will come back at some point it will likely not be anytime soon so you better be able to lose money for a significant portion of time (not specific to people in this thread just people in general). I would be very careful investing now unless you can stomach a loss and wait it out.
Thucydides
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no such thing as easy money in the market . And you’re right - you need to be able to wait it out . But if you don’t mind bathing in the red , swimming in the red then in the long run, you’re going to do really well once all this is over . Think long term! Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
i cashed out anything with a strike earlier than may this morning after open. i think we're gonna go sideways for the next bit and iv is gonna crush people that held shorter positions. maybe even get a bull trap-esque pump into april once this stimulus bill gets done in the senate. i might even short call spy (its like $1 contracts now) once i get a better feel for the momentum. i'm willing to bet there are lots of greedy little pigs still buying puts that are gonna take losses in the coming weeks. but cash is king at this moment in time, as far as i'm concerned
Ainec
Panetta was not racist
- Jun 20, 2009
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I like USO as well
Some of these like CCL are probably getting bailed out. Does anyone have any articles on what happens to stock prices before and after bailouts? Also any reason why you like CCL over airlines
CCL might survive even without a bailout. Big cash reserves and tons of collateral (their ships) to lever for cash.
BA is for sure getting bailed out. They are a defense contracting machine and basically married to the government. I like BA, but I still think there's some room for a further drop in the coming weeks
Airlines, meh. Too risky. Some will get bailouts, others won't. I don't have time for that
Fixed to Ruin
Come wit it now!
48g90a138pts
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Thucydides
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Fixed to Ruin
Come wit it now!
ZDH
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Finally in the market after waiting forever to get the account opened up. Looking to move most of my money into airlines and cruise lines but I think they will sink even further in the next month so I'm going to hold off for now. Did just buy some LNC stock though, I think that one is really solid value right now.
Thucydides
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you think? I think we haven’t reached peak virus yet . I think we still have further down to go.
Everyone and their mother knows we haven't reached peak virus yet here. Everyone knows it is coming eventually. Market just needs to see progress, which they are seeing in other countries...even in Italy.
I think POTUS is going to get the ball rolling, that's why I'm very bullish on the US
Ted Hoffman
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- Dec 15, 2002
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I think your optimism is wildly misplaced. I also will not be surprised if when Congress passes the bailout, like how the markets went into the toilet after TARP was finally passed we go at least two circuit-breakers down as the news gets sold.
In fact, I'm debating whether to short the f*** out of the market (again) after we opened up 6.7% and are sitting up about 5.5% right now - and that's considering the POTUS is likely to order things to reopen and make the situation 10x worse that it would be if we just stayed the course and plowed through this.
I mean it's laughable at how much everyone is trying to time at when they should jump back in the market. I'm not looking to make a quick buck here, if you have a long time horizon and haven't bought in yet....you are an idiot.
Markets have priced most of their concerns to this crisis.. correlations across asset classes went to 1, this is an indicator that we are close to or reached the bottom. I am not saying that the market won't go through vol.periods, but the worst is most probably behind us.
Ainec
Panetta was not racist
- Jun 20, 2009
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I think stocks will go up because of the money printing and the fed backing it. But I think it's easier to maintain or increase purchasing power with gold and bitcoin
Ted Hoffman
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Or, more pointedly,
I'm not saying we're going down almost 90% off the high - I think 60% is well within the cards - but I am saying that buying massively back into the market when it's ~33% off the 3rd bubble-induced high in 20 years merely because "look at the long-term, stocks haven't been this cheap in years" is a great way to end up going nowhere for years to come.
Finally, every time I hear "the market has priced in everything, the worst is behind us" I'm reminded of the same comments from 2007-2008 and through most of the run-up the last few years. Bad news is seemingly always already factored into the market. Good news is never factored in, and it leads to "bad news? Buy! Wait, it's really good news? Really buy!" mentality that causes the market to rocket up to obscene valuations and people to exclaim this time is different, recessions are a thing of the past, you have to be in stocks, they'll never go down again!
Or, more pointedly,
I'm not saying we're going down almost 90% off the high - I think 60% is well within the cards - but I am saying that buying massively back into the market when it's ~33% off the 3rd bubble-induced high in 20 years merely because "look at the long-term, stocks haven't been this cheap in years" is a great way to end up going nowhere for years to come.
I know this, however if you systematically put money to work continuously and put more money to work in period of shocks, you should end up on the positive side of things. Don't get caught trying to time the market.
Why Mistiming The Market Can Be Disastrous - The Simple Dollar
Good luck out there!
Ted Hoffman
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1. This jumps off one of the lower points the Dow was at in the 1978-1982 range, when it was already about 65% off the 1965 high and had dropped below the 1974 low. Of course it's going to look really good from there. Spoiler: we're not at the same point in time in 2020. Jump off March, 2000 and see how those gains look compared to having sat in Treasuries or even a money market account.
2. Even with today's massive rally, everyone who's "systematically put money to work continuously" (read: dollar-cost averaging) in the market is still flat for the last 5 1/2 years. Not "flat after accounting for inflation," I mean "your total return over that period is 0.00%." As of yesterday's close, you were flat for nearly 7 years. If (when) we hit 2100, you'll be flat for 8 years. 2000? 8 1/2 years. 1250 (about where I expect we'll land)? 23 years of buy-and-hold gains will be wiped out. 25 points below that? It'll wipe out everything back to 1995. Inflation-adjusted? It's even worse.
Short-term timing? I agree, 99.99% of people shouldn't do that. Long-term "set it and forget it" a la Ron Pompeil, though? That's just as dumb, IMO. Gains are paper only until you sell, and way too many people won't do that because they fear losing more gains. Buy-and-hold is great as long as stocks go up forever. When they don't, buy-and-hold quickly turns into losses because your cost basis has increased over time. Never be afraid to take gains, don't just put blind faith in "everything will always go back up" because like irrational behavior on the way up, the market can stay irrational longer on the way down than you want to believe is possible.
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