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I never thought The Walking Dead was a premonition for our future. I feel like I woke up in some parallel universe nightmare
 
i set aside about $5000 to invest in my IRA to offset some taxes. I'll probably wait until around the 10th of april to contribute + file, just to get the most eventual bang for my buck. I suppose over 30+ years it makes literally no difference, but I have a feeling this week is going to be a shitshow and we might just eek out a little bit of value.

Then hopefully I can afford some stuff next month when I have some money again. Will we be under 10k as fast as we went from 30k -> 20k?
 
Yikes, i called the bloodbath tomorrow. Get your money in boys if you want to make some money down the road!
 
Fixed to Ruin said:
Click to expand...

I think we should distinguish between "unemployed and out of a job and looking for one" and "unemployed, but temporary and when things settle down will be back to the last employer."

On the first? We're not going near 30%. On the latter? Much higher chance to get there; I don't know if we'll get to 30% or not - admittedly, because I have a poor feel for it because my job still exists even as WFH and virtually every other job at my employer still exists for the same reason. I'm curious what others think. Might be good for a poll here and/or elsewhere.

LarryFisherman said:
Then hopefully I can afford some stuff next month when I have some money again. Will we be under 10k as fast as we went from 30k -> 20k?
Click to expand...
Let's start with "do I think we're going to Dow 10,000?" Back-of-the-envelope, no.

Looking at closing figures as the basis, we topped out at 29,551 on February 12. We first closed back under 20K on March 18 (19,899), we officially dropped 10K points on Friday (19,174). I struggle to see it going much under 12,000 merely because of the composition of the Dow. (Which is why I use the S&P, among other reasons.) But, that's still -40% from here and would mean almost -60% off the top. That would put the S&P somewhere around 1,355. (I have its downside closer to 1,250, or nearly half off from here.) So short answer - no, we probably don't drop to 10K in the next ~5 weeks.

Now, that assumes somewhere in this administration someone gets their shit together and we start getting help out to the health care system. Right now, I have low confidence in that - and, I have high confidence in people in this administration front-running anything that does happen grease their own palms (even more than they have already). The longer that goes, the more likely we touch 10K - and if we go there, you have to think Americans will full-panic and bail out of the market, having pissed away the last 11 years of gains and most likely having exactly nothing to show for ~22 years of investing in the market.

You'll also have to balance that with stupid ideas like "let's mint a pair of $1 trillion coins to pay for all of this." [Hell, why stop at $1 trillion? Make it $5 trillion. Make it $10 trillion. f***, make it 334 million $1 trillion coins. What could go wrong?] We start printing money, it likely puts a floor on the market. The Fed starts buying equities, it really puts a floor in. (Yes, that's going to happen. No, it's not going to solve anything.) But at that point, your best investment isn't going to be equities. It will be hard metals.
 
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Mud the ACAS said:
I think we should distinguish between "unemployed and out of a job and looking for one" and "unemployed, but temporary and when things settle down will be back to the last employer."

On the first? We're not going near 30%. On the latter? Much higher chance to get there; I don't know if we'll get to 30% or not - admittedly, because I have a poor feel for it because my job still exists even as WFH and virtually every other job at my employer still exists for the same reason. I'm curious what others think. Might be good for a poll here and/or elsewhere.


Let's start with "do I think we're going to Dow 10,000?" Back-of-the-envelope, no.

Looking at closing figures as the basis, we topped out at 29,551 on February 12. We first closed back under 20K on March 18 (19,899), we officially dropped 10K points on Friday (19,174). I struggle to see it going much under 12,000 merely because of the composition of the Dow. (Which is why I use the S&P, among other reasons.) But, that's still -40% from here and would mean almost -60% off the top. That would put the S&P somewhere around 1,355. (I have its downside closer to 1,250, or nearly half off from here.) So short answer - no, we probably don't drop to 10K in the next ~5 weeks.

Now, that assumes somewhere in this administration someone gets their shit together and we start getting help out to the health care system. Right now, I have low confidence in that - and, I have high confidence in people in this administration front-running anything that does happen grease their own palms (even more than they have already). The longer that goes, the more likely we touch 10K - and if we go there, you have to think Americans will full-panic and bail out of the market, having pissed away the last 11 years of gains and most likely having exactly nothing to show for ~22 years of investing in the market.

You'll also have to balance that with stupid ideas like "let's mint a pair of $1 trillion coins to pay for all of this." [Hell, why stop at $1 trillion? Make it $5 trillion. Make it $10 trillion. f***, make it 334 million $1 trillion coins. What could go wrong?] We start printing money, it likely puts a floor on the market. The Fed starts buying equities, it really puts a floor in. (Yes, that's going to happen. No, it's not going to solve anything.) But at that point, your best investment isn't going to be equities. It will be hard metals.
Click to expand...

Fun fact. Physical Hard metals are back ordered for 3 to 4 months right now.
 
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w-what about paper metals

should I put more $ in that or is that also fancy spreadsheets
 
Its interesting. A lot of the people who are saying buy are the same people that said that a 10% drop was all that there was going to be. Then they said buy at the 15%, then 20%... and that we were most likely at bottom.

Yet here I am thinking we havent seen a situation where this many variables are at play at the same time. Heck even when cities are being shelled in wartime people are still walking around in public every day and going to work knowing that they could die. So we are living in unknown times.
 
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lukester said:
Its interesting. A lot of the people who are saying buy are the same people that said that a 10% drop was all that there was going to be. Then they said buy at the 15%, then 20%... and that we were most likely at bottom.

Yet here I am thinking we havent seen a situation where this many variables are at play at the same time. Heck even when cities are being shelled in wartime people are still walking around in public every day and going to work knowing that they could die. So we are living in unknown times.
Click to expand...
Ya and if this continues it means more layoffs and more lockdowns which means the stocks will further dive
 
Ainec said:
Already is


General public will just blame the pandemic for everything
Click to expand...
The more closely held (fewer investors) an asset is, the more vulnerable it is to price shocks because of small trades. This is where the Fed is going. It thinks it's going to single-handedly prop up the stock market by buying everything in sight.

I'll put my SB cash down on a triple-limit stop within 30 days, even if the Fed is buying equities.
 
questrade crashed lol

I'm also using IB, any other good brokers?
 
We're now under where we were trading on the S&P when Trump took office. If you're in the "buy-and-hold" crowd, you've now got a total return of 0.00% for 7-8 years depending on which measure you want to use. Dollar-cost averaging is flat to about mid-January 2013; average S&P close is flat back to March, 2012.

For those wondering, if (when) the S&P drops to 1911 it will have wiped out aggregate gains for the buy-and-hold crowd going back to the March 2009 lows. If (when?) it drops to 1454, it will have wiped out aggregate gains going back to the beginning of 1995. Yes, that would be 25 years of zero average annual return.
 
meme of the year

moneyprintergobrrr.jpg
 
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