The State of the Leafs - what do we have here, exactly?

[The Best Leafs Ever]

I think you're trying to hard.

We shall see what they do in the playoffs. You need top end players to win. I would be surprised if we even beat Bruins in 7 game series.

 

[zeke]

Love what you did there, Zeke.


One comment though: you're underestimating Gardiner. He's been a beast with everyone but zaitsev (who's tanked the stats of every partner he's been with).

good point. zaitsev may have dragged him down. i kay be underrating his play.

in general, linemates are the weak points of my analysis here. the Relative to team stats I list do cover some of the linemates effects but when linemates play most of the time together it's hard to separate them completely.

 

[zeke]

We have a young team that's a legit contender. As long as we can maintain decent depth, we should have an open window for ~5 or more years.

I think with the emergence of Dermott and breakout season by Rielly, there's less pressure now to find a major upgrade to the blueline.

My main concern is draining the depth by repeatedly letting guys walk for nothing to free agency (Bozak, JVR, Komarov, etc), while simultaneously trading picks for depth rentals (Boyle & Plekanec). Do that for a few years, and you can quickly bleed the organizational depth.

yup. but the good news is that it seems the free agent market is starting to figure out the cap era. smart gms can find good depth for peanuts if they know what they are doing. and good drafting should be able to consistently provide quality depth players no katter where they pick.

 

[Gary Nylund]

yup. but the good news is that it seems the free agent market is starting to figure out the cap era. smart gms can find good depth for peanuts if they know what they are doing. and good drafting should be able to consistently provide quality depth players no katter where they pick.

What I'm really interested in is if and when the day will come when GM's stop overpaying for UFA's. The Lucik contract is the obvious example and I do expect this kind of mistakes to stop soon but the next stop is more interesting - teams signing their own star players as they approach/reach UFA status tend to overpay as well. The Price contract is probably the best example as it seems clear MTL would have been much better off trading him or even letting him walk and then Corey Perry and Jonathan Toews come to mind. It's hard for a team to draw the line and let go of their star players if the alternative is overpaying but it just might happen some day. How would fans react? Would they be pissed that their star players are traded or would they be happy and understand that they'd be better off not overpaying them and thus handcuffing the franchise going forward? I think if a team has won the cup then fans might prefer to overpay than to let the guys play elsewhere but if there's been no cup, that might be different. Would Anaheim be better off had they traded Getzlaf and Perry for whatever they could get instead of signing them? If they had done that it would have been an interesting paradigm shift IMO.

Not sure how coherent that was but no worries, I'm done now.

Edit - cool post Zeke, I always appreciate you taking time to post stats for us. I know this post was more than just stats but just wanted to give you a nod for the stats you always share with us.

 

[zeke]

What I'm really interested in is if and when the day will come when GM's stop overpaying for UFA's. The Lucik contract is the obvious example and I do expect this kind of mistakes to stop soon but the next stop is more interesting - teams signing their own star players as they approach/reach UFA status tend to overpay as well. The Price contract is probably the best example as it seems clear MTL would have been much better off trading him or even letting him walk and then Corey Perry and Jonathan Toews come to mind. It's hard for a team to draw the line and let go of their star players if the alternative is overpaying but it just might happen some day. How would fans react? Would they be pissed that their star players are traded or would they be happy and understand that they'd be better off not overpaying them and thus handcuffing the franchise going forward? I think if a team has won the cup then fans might prefer to overpay than to let the guys play elsewhere but if there's been no cup, that might be different. Would Anaheim be better off had they traded Getzlaf and Perry for whatever they could get instead of signing them? If they had done that it would have been an interesting paradigm shift IMO.

Not sure how coherent that was but no worries, I'm done now.

There will always be bad contracts. The worst ones are always the ones where you pay a premium for grit and intangibles, though. Not only because those really aren't worth paying extra for in the first place, but also because they age very poorly as well - so it's a double whammy. So lucics and clarksons and even toewses are the killers. Not the kessels and kanes. And yeah with price too - overpaying for goalies is never a great idea imo.

But those dumb gms help the good gms by always leaving a number of skilled depth free agents left over to scoop up for cheap - so hopefully gms stay dumb. Though the success of fast and skilled Vegas might make a bunch of gms smarten up quick.

Edit - cool post Zeke, I always appreciate you taking time to post stats for us. I know this post was more than just stats but just wanted to give you a nod for the stats you always share with us.

Thanks, I appreciate it....but tbh i do these stats for myself anyways (in lieu of reading "expert opinions") so there's no reason not to share them....especially since i think these stats are really useful, and that people can understand them pretty easily with some more familiarity. And of course i'm proud to play any small part in the Great War against Media Hack Cliches that i can.

 

[Northernguy10]

Here's one site's report re: " Do advanced stats really work in hockey?"

Do advanced stats really work in hockey?

 

[zeke]

Here's one site's report re: " Do advanced stats really work in hockey?"

Do advanced stats really work in hockey?

can't get to that site.

 

[Macallan18]

Next Up: How does this compare to TBay and Boston by all the very same metrics? (I'll get that done before the playoffs start I hope).

Great work, a huge thank you!!
I like Carrick more than most on our board, glad numbers support this.

 

[Silver91]

good point. zaitsev may have dragged him down. i kay be underrating his play.

in general, linemates are the weak points of my analysis here. the Relative to team stats I list do cover some of the linemates effects but when linemates play most of the time together it's hard to separate them completely.

How do the peripherals compare Gardiner to Cam Fowler? Based solely on counting stats through the point where both were a year away from UFA, they look almost identical to me (Gardiner is 3 years older than when Fowler signed his extension). Think Fowler would be a good comp for contract talks with Jake?

 

[djdev]

We shall see what they do in the playoffs. You need top end players to win. I would be surprised if we even beat Bruins in 7 game series.

you would be surprised if we "even" beat the team with the 4th best record in the league and probably had the best record in the NHL after the 1st month? i dont even know what to say anymore to some people on this forum lol

 

[zeke]

How do the peripherals compare Gardiner to Cam Fowler? Based solely on counting stats through the point where both were a year away from UFA, they look almost identical to me (Gardiner is 3 years older than when Fowler signed his extension). Think Fowler would be a good comp for contract talks with Jake?

you never know with contract talks. the good thing about leafs' dmen getting so little hype is that it should help come contract time.

Jake and Fowler seem to be fairly similar possession guys with fairly similar usage - except Jake's much more potent offensively, at even strength and on the PP. But Fowler does get lots of PK time and Jake gets none - whether either of them deserve or don't deserve that PK time is a much harder question to answer.

Tbh, one of the better comps I see right now for Jake, at least at even strength, is John Carlson. Both possession wise and offensively. Carlson does play the PK, though. And Carlson's numbers on the PP are legit better than jake's, though Carlson does play on a team that stacks its top PP unit, and Jake doesn't.

 

[IBeL34f]

you never know with contract talks. the good thing about leafs' dmen getting so little hype is that it should help come contract time.

Jake and Fowler seem to be fairly similar possession guys with fairly similar usage - except Jake's much more potent offensively, at even strength and on the PP. But Fowler does get lots of PK time and Jake gets none - whether either of them deserve or don't deserve that PK time is a much harder question to answer.

Tbh, one of the better comps I see right now for Jake, at least at even strength, is John Carlson. Both possession wise and offensively. Carlson does play the PK, though. And Carlson's numbers on the PP are legit better than jake's, though Carlson does play on a team that stacks its top PP unit, and Jake doesn't.

Based on the figures I've heard regarding Carlson (upwards of $7.5-8M/year) I really hope that's not the case. Keeping Gardiner long-term would be absolutely huge for us, but unless the Cap sky-rockets with the looming expansion, giving him more than $6M will be tricky.

 

[zeke]

Based on the figures I've heard regarding Carlson (upwards of $7.5-8M/year) I really hope that's not the case. Keeping Gardiner long-term would be absolutely huge for us, but unless the Cap sky-rockets with the looming expansion, giving him more than $6M will be tricky.

ah don't worry about that - Jake gets nowhere near the hype of Carlson, nor does he get the prime PP time to be able to match his gaudy old-skool numbers. Carlson will get paid much more than Jake....but probably shouldn't.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I can't help you understand any better than that. You don't get it. We're done here.

you never know with contract talks. the good thing about leafs' dmen getting so little hype is that it should help come contract time.

Jake and Fowler seem to be fairly similar possession guys with fairly similar usage - except Jake's much more potent offensively, at even strength and on the PP. But Fowler does get lots of PK time and Jake gets none - whether either of them deserve or don't deserve that PK time is a much harder question to answer.

Tbh, one of the better comps I see right now for Jake, at least at even strength, is John Carlson. Both possession wise and offensively. Carlson does play the PK, though. And Carlson's numbers on the PP are legit better than jake's, though Carlson does play on a team that stacks its top PP unit, and Jake doesn't.

Isn't it fair to say that our PP is pretty "stacked" as it is?

 

[IBeL34f]

ah don't worry about that - Jake gets nowhere near the hype of Carlson, nor does he get the prime PP time to be able to match his gaudy old-skool numbers. Carlson will get paid much more than Jake....but probably shouldn't.

I appreciate the optimism - Hope you're right!

 

[lebdafor norris]

Rielly's controlled, zone entry success rate (poss entry%) has probably been the most impressive part of his game this year, in fact, his been in the same percentile as the elite guys such as Keith, Subban, Doughty and OEL all year long. Unfortunately, the chart I found only gives us the stats for his last ~ 18 games as I can't find a site that shows a player's, cumulative controlled zone entry stats any where. If Rielly can improve his controlled, zone exit success rate I think he can truly become a top 15 Dman in the league.

On the other hand, I was amazed at how poor Zaitsev's transitional game was, I expected Hainsey to score poorly on this as puck moving was never part of his game but wasn't Zaitsev considered a 2 way, mobile Dman in the KHL? Anyway, nice post as always as Zeke, the OP was definitely a fun read.

Meant to compare Rielly with Zaitsev on the original picture.

 

[Nithoniniel]

asn't Zaitsev considered a 2 way, mobile Dman in the KHL?

Yes he was. He doesn't play the same way at all. My impression is that he mainly has two problems. First is that he hasn't handled the increased pace very well. That extra bit of time on the bigger ice has allowed him the time to identify good plays and execute them, while here he often panics and goes for the safe play. Another thing is that he seem to struggle with self-confidence. He's even noted himself that he's exceedingly harsh against himself when he struggles, and it's reportedly something that the Leafs have tried to work with him on.

He's got the tools though. The problems with him here has been the things that were strengths in the KHL, so I still think there's an upside there if he can find a way to be slightly more patient with the puck when called for. He so often have more time than he thinks, and Babcock is not the coach you need to be scared of mistakes with.

 

[The Apologist]

Stats aim to determine what has already happened, and to try and provide some context (where possible) for those events.

Using them at season's end to try and summarize what we've seen over the past 82 games (or, better yet, 164 games) makes a lot of sense.

No one's drawn any wild conclusions about the outcome of future games - The only hypothesis really presented in the OP at all was that we're really good, but missing a piece. I'm not really sure what exactly you're upset about here...

Well said. And agreed, great analysis by @zeke . Don't necessarily agree with all of it but nothing egregious here.

 

[zeke]

Isn't it fair to say that our PP is pretty "stacked" as it is?

Well actually not really - the Caps stack all the best on one unit and play them the whole PP. The leafs split their best players up and play them half and half. So while carlson spends nearly 4 minutes of PP every game witb ovie backstrom kuz and oshie, jake gets only 2 minutes a game and plays with old man marleau and uncle leo.

 

[Polaris1010]

I guess my question is - why do you feel the need to point out how much you don't care about something? I know I don't go around telling people how uninterested I am in their interests.

Don't get me wrong here, I praised your original post because I liked very much.

I do not think that I posted that I "point out how much you don't care about something".

Read your entire post. Considered it. Posted feedback, and some comments about stats and advanced stats in general.

To me, this was an exchange of ideas, and no way an attempt to derail conversation, or to make light of your efforts.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Bring in John Carlson or Justin Faulk

Rielly Carlson/Faulk

Gardiner Dermott

Hainsey Borgman/UFA

 

[zeke]

Don't get me wrong here, I praised your original post because I liked very much.

I do not think that I posted that I "point out how much you don't care about something".

Read your entire post. Considered it. Posted feedback, and some comments about stats and advanced stats in general.

To me, this was an exchange of ideas, and no way an attempt to derail conversation, or to make light of your efforts.

Didn't mean to come off sounding harsh - sorry. I was just responding to your points - I was interested in hearing your counterpoints to my counterpoints, tbh.

 

[moon111]

Stats are a useful tool, but I disagree that 'old' ways still don't hold value. What kind of body language is the goalie giving you for instance. And in many cases, especially in the Leaf's case, they can afford not to worry about scoring for everyone as long as they can shut-down the opposition. If all Tomas Plekanec and Leo Komarov accomplish is having the star opposition break their stick in frustration, I'll take it, damn any other stat. A mean, charged-up Polak being a beast in front of the crease is perhaps invaluable despite the lack of other attributes. It's almost a guarantee the Leafs are going to lose at least one game in their next series because the blueliners are weak clearing and tying up the crease. Some of this can be measured even, but really the good old eye test tells you without needing to look at numbers on a piece of paper. I really like the stats, they tell a story, but don't tell the whole story.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Props to zeke for the OP.


Optimist in Me: We have a promising and exciting young team.


Pessimist in Me: We have a promising and exciting young team that has yet to really hit the growing pains.


Either way, Go Leafs Go!

 

[Morgs]

Bring in John Carlson or Justin Faulk

Rielly Carlson/Faulk

Gardiner Dermott

Hainsey Borgman/UFA

It's funny that what people think they're going to get with Carlson is what they thought they would get with Shattenkirk. An all offense defenseman, who's above average on the PP.

Carlson might be a little better offensively than Gardiner (debatable), but he's much worse defensively. He is someone we should not even consider signing this offseason, especially at what he's going to cost.

Faulk is also not the guy I believe we should blow our load for, but I would be less mad if we went for him instead of Carlson.