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The State of the Leafs - what do we have here, exactly?

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Randy Randerson

Randy Randerson

Registered User
Jul 28, 2016
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Hamilton
makes me excited for the prospect of what Liljegren could be, and what he and Dermott could do to solidify a defense that has gone from bad to passable, but finally has the potential to be very good

also seems like Marleau was a bit of a gaff for how much he makes, and would really like to see what the group of kids could do with one of those top 6 LW spots
 
MR4

MR4

Registered User
Oct 20, 2014
6,270
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Yep have always said our only weakness is at the 1RD spot, and if Dermott could do well there we're golden
 
zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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Polaris1010 said:
1. Good job. You are true fan to do all that work.

2. Tend to agree with almost everything you posted. Just some minor differences which not sure if they really are.

Brown played on the 4th often and played with Bozak. His point total being down is understandable.

Bozak I think had one of his best year as a Leafs player. He accepted his role and was good and reliable. That is all you want and expect.

Komorav, another guy who has accepted his role, and he seems happier for it, not being one of the go to guys for scoring. Maybe back in Russia, but he's happy here with his new family. He will be back next season. With the kind of season he had, no one will be interested, other than the brass at Leafs Land.

Zaitsev I thought he had a pretty decent season, although his offense numbers do not show it. Last year he played the power play. This year he plays the entire two minutes of the penalty kill with Hainsey. My view to judge a defenseman who is used in this way, defense first, is to judge how many goals are scored when he is on the ice. He probably is the Leafs best defenseman in that regard. Zaitsev is usually on the ice for 1 goal against every game, and he is usually up against the best from the other team. That is good enough to win. Put the others in the same role, it will be more than 1 a game, and at the worst times.

3. Paradoxically, your post is a good point in why I do not follow advanced stats, semi-advanced or secret-advanced-stats.

We are 90% in agreement.

If you did not follow advanced stats, and wrote up a year end review, you are very knowledgeable about hockey, and you will basically produce the same post.

I think, with the advanced stats, it should try to show something different. In the end of this season, it just shows what we know. Some minor differences that do not amount to much

I think the advanced stats are still a work in progress.

Anyways, thanks for sharing.

:nod:
Click to expand...

but if you think think this reading of the advanced stats matches your eye test.....shouldn't that make you put more faith into them, especially in regards to games and players you don't watch all the time?

you seem to want stats that disagree with what you see?
 
Optimist

Optimist

Wendel and I
Feb 16, 2015
1,252
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Ontario Canada
I hate stats. I just watch the games (every one this year) and hope we play well and win. Number crunching just doesn't cut it for me. Stats and the lineup opinions, I just shake my head at. I haven't got a clue what corsi is, nor do I care. It's all eye test for me.
 
zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Optomist said:
I hate stats. I just watch the games (every one this year) and hope we play well and win. Number crunching just doesn't cut it for me. Stats and the lineup opinions, I just shake my head at. I haven't got a clue what corsi is, nor do I care. It's all eye test for me.
Click to expand...

thx for sharing.
 
Optimist

Optimist

Wendel and I
Feb 16, 2015
1,252
2,076
Ontario Canada
zeke said:
thx for sharing.
Click to expand...
So give me a million stats and percentages on why or why not we might win or lose the the Bruins. Meanwhile, I'll just watch the game and pull for the Leafs. The game is played on the ice last time I checked. Not on a computer.
 

luvdahattymatty

Registered User
Apr 8, 2018
511
405
I went to 10 Marlies home and away games so far this season. Dermott and Holl were far and away their 2 best defence. Lilegren was not noticeable but keep in mind he does not get a lot of ice either. I think Keefe is letting him get used to the North American game this season.
Zaitsev and Rielly kinda xchanged minutes this season with Rielly getting the pp minutes. Not sure it makes that much difference to team overall who gets the secondary apples on the pp.
Overall the team defence is similar. I still think they need to draft defence and centres. Hard to win Cup in NHL without a stud D who can do it all - score, makes plays, hit play hard, play strong defence and carry the play when he is on the ice. I hope Dermott can be that guy but it will take a couple years to figure it out. Rielly just does not have the mean streak and Gardiner just does not have the hockey sense. Zaitsev will be a complimentary piece.
 
LeafGrief

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,904
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Ottawa
I always appreciate your work Zeke. Great job compiling the stats here and making some great points.

In my opinion, we've got a team that can go toe to toe with anyone in the league and are in the dark-horse contender tier. I think the Bruins, Lightning, and Preds are all better teams, but we're close enough that we can beat any of them in a 7 game series. We're blessed with a deep lineup and a deep pool of young talent on the Marlies to supplement the big club. Can't wait for the playoffs to start.
 
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zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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luvdahattymatty said:
Zaitsev and Rielly kinda xchanged minutes this season with Rielly getting the pp minutes. Not sure it makes that much difference to team overall who gets the secondary apples on the pp..
Click to expand...

I gotta disagree with you there. I think this switch has been a huge boost to the PP, and Mo is a huge part of why that marner unit is so dominant this year.

Zaitsev had no business playing on the PP ahead of Mo last year - he's nowhere near as good.
 
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IBeL34f

IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
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Toronto
Optomist said:
So should I even bother watching? Or do your stats tell the story before the puck is even dropped?
Click to expand...
Stats aim to determine what has already happened, and to try and provide some context (where possible) for those events.

Using them at season's end to try and summarize what we've seen over the past 82 games (or, better yet, 164 games) makes a lot of sense.

No one's drawn any wild conclusions about the outcome of future games - The only hypothesis really presented in the OP at all was that we're really good, but missing a piece. I'm not really sure what exactly you're upset about here...
 
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Duke16

Duke16

Registered User
Apr 14, 2015
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It's crazy to think that we still have Johnsson looking to break in full time, as well as Bracco, Korshkov and Grundstrom as good bets to become effective forwards for us. On defence we still have Borgman and Liljegren (Rasanen?) as good bets to effective defenseman for us as well.
 
SprDaVE

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
54,358
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Optomist said:
I hate stats. I just watch the games (every one this year) and hope we play well and win. Number crunching just doesn't cut it for me. Stats and the lineup opinions, I just shake my head at. I haven't got a clue what corsi is, nor do I care. It's all eye test for me.
Click to expand...

So you don't care about simple stats like ice time, shots, goals and assists?

That's all these stats show.
 
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