The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Lafleurs Guy]

it's very difficult to add high end talent, and if you were among the worst 5 teams for 3 years chances are good you don't currently have much high end talent.

Okay, but talent was added in that time. It's the same with say... the Blackhawks. They were bad but added high end talent with high picks (Toews, Kane) and then went on to win cups with them. Slaf, RB, Demidov, Hutson and others added in that timeframe. Hutson coming in a rebuild trade.

This has nothing to do with if Hughes was smart to trade Monahan, a monkey could have made that trade. He's clearly smart but there's a lot that has to go right.

I can't think of another situation where a GM got a first for taking a player and a first for trading him away.

A lot has to go right? Yes, that's absolutely true. We have to stay healthy for one thing. But that's different than assessing where we're at now. Hugo's set out to amass a deep group of talent and I think he's acheived that. But that's a long way from saying we're going to win a cup with this group. It's obviously way too early to say anything like that.

 

[conFABulator]

The blueline is what they seem to be building with, but until we see how the do in the NHL over the next couple of years, who knows how it will play out, lots of question marks around Hutson, Mailloux, Reinbacher, Engstrom still so they might have a great core up coming or not who knows.

who is the good young goalie they have?

Unless Slaf and Demidov are putting up massive #'s, there's no way in the world that Suzuki/Caufield, Dach and Newhook would be enough to do anything close to being a cup contender.

There's tons of question marks for the Habs, the good news is that for them the next 2-3 years will be very telling for their future success or not.

I thought Montembault was the goalie of the future for the Habs, no?

 

[JoelWarlord]

Does Montreal have the high end pieces require to convert the rebuild to a success?

This is a boring answer but at present the only reasonable answer is maybe IMO. I'm extremely optimistic about Montreal's future and on paper I'd say we absolutely have the pieces, but until that actually materializes we can't say for sure.

I think the bones of a successful rebuild are there, a big part of that for me is that I'm now reasonable comfortable with the idea of exiting the rebuild with Suzuki as the 1C. Ideally we'll find someone better but I think there's a world where you can get an 18-19 Ryan O'Reilly performance out of him and that could be enough with a deep blue line and good scoring depth. It would still be nice to upgrade there but it's no longer absolutely critical IMO.

A lot really hinges on what Demidov and Slafkovsky can become. I'm confident that the blue line will be good enough to contend and should at minimum be a strength through depth even if nobody emerges as a true #1, but I think a successful rebuild will require that at least one and ideally both of Demidov or Slafkovsky become clearly better players than Suzuki. If they don't then the path upwards becomes a lot harder and requires something like an Eichel to Vegas, M. Tkachuk to Florida, or O'Reilly to St. Louis kind of trade for a contending window to open. Montreal is well situated to make that kind of move down the line but it's hard to rely on those things happening.

I thought Montembault was the goalie of the future for the Habs, no?

Maybe. The organization is really high on Jacob Fowler and he's probably the guy they're hoping will be the future in net but he was a 2023 draftee and will still be a few years away at minimum. Montembeault is probably going to end up being a stopgap but it's possible he emerges as a solid 1A. I don't think they're planning on Montembeault as the long term goalie solution but the 3 year contract gives him a chance to make his case and we'll see what happens.

 

[Redux91]

why? they just spent the last 3 years being one of the worst teams in the league, of course there's a lot of work that needs to be done.

I'm also honestly surprised at you too lol

Rebuild being a success or not has nothing to do with how the last 3 years went standings wise..

Finishing top5 3 straight times in drafts is HOW you acquire the pieces necessary to 'build' the future success..

So really not sure how you think we haven't BEEN grabing the pieces you need to build a Cup contender

Obviously a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds isn't enough to declare we're a contender but to say we don't have / are not acquiring the pieces to a future contender I just Obviously can't agree with

We can't draft 1st overall 10 straight times..

 

[montreal]

Okay, but talent was added in that time. It's the same with say... the Blackhawks. They were bad but added high end talent with high picks (Toews, Kane) and then went on to win cups with them. Slaf, RB, Demidov, Hutson and others added in that timeframe. Hutson coming in a rebuild trade.

I can't think of another situation where a GM got a first for taking a player and a first for trading him away.

A lot has to go right? Yes, that's absolutely true. We have to stay healthy for one thing. But that's different than assessing where we're at now. Hugo's set out to amass a deep group of talent and I think he's acheived that. But that's a long way from saying we're going to win a cup with this group. It's obviously way too early to say anything like that.

Prospects are nothing until they are something, no one knows what the Habs have in any of these prospects, We might end up with the talent of the Hawks but we do not have anything close being a contender.

I thought Montembault was the goalie of the future for the Habs, no?

He turns 28 in October, hard to be the goalie of the future, but I have never been a big fan and while I suck with evaluating goalies as it's the only position I never played, I have wondered if Primeau doesn't end up the better goalie.

 

[montreal]

I'm also honestly surprised at you too lol

Rebuild being a success or not has nothing to do with how the last 3 years went standings wise..

Finishing top5 3 straight times in drafts is HOW you acquire the pieces necessary to 'build' the future success..

So really not sure how you think we haven't BEEN grabing the pieces you need to build a Cup contender

Obviously a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds isn't enough to declare we're a contender but to say we don't have / are not acquiring the pieces to a future contender I just Obviously can't agree with

We can't draft 1st overall 10 straight times..

No one said anything about drafting 1st OA, the point is that just because you get some high picks doesn't mean anything, it's how you develop them in time that matters.

 

[Walksss]

it's very difficult to add high end talent, and if you were among the worst 5 teams for 3 years chances are good you don't currently have much high end talent.

This has nothing to do with if Hughes was smart to trade Monahan, a monkey could have made that trade. He's clearly smart but there's a lot that has to go right.

Obviously a monkey would struggle to make the phone call necessary to negotiate such a trade, someone would have to take the monkey to negotiate in person. Your analysis is ridiculously inaccurate.

 

[Mario Lemieux fan 66]

The hope is to have before the the Guhle contract ends, 3 near ppg players in Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Demidov. Caufield has a 60 + points player and one of Hage, Dach and our 2 first round pick next year as a 55 + points second line center and one of the other 3 as a 50 + points top 6 winger. Roy-Beck and Newhook as great bottom sixer with enough money and trade assets to add a top 4 RD and a top 6 forward.

I like the draft so far by Hughes, the development and the salary cap structure. The key fowards need to stay healthy and the Habs can be a Stanley cup contender in 5-6 years.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Prospects are nothing until they are something, no one knows what the Habs have in any of these prospects, We might end up with the talent of the Hawks but we do not have anything close being a contender.

I think we have a good idea of what some of these guys can do. In some cases health has gotten in the way but that doesn’t mean we don’t know anything about them.

Not close to a contender? Nobody will dispute that. The makings of a future contender though? Maybe already there. We have to wait.

We’ve chosen the path of many cup winners in that we’ve drafted high and aggressively traded for picks and prospects. I think it’s going to pay off with a good team down the road. Not every bet will pay off but some will.

The Hawks didn't know those players would become stars but they knew they had strong prospects. That's the stage we're at now. Hopefully we'll get similar results but there's no guarantee of that. At least we're following a proven template.

 

[Trabdy2]

I give it a B.

It's hard to judge at this point, because I think we need to judge it based on results and it's too early for us to see significant team results from his work as we've been rebuilding.

In general I have liked the moves he's made, and I've been encouraged by seeing the progress of some of our key players that he's committed long term to. That said, I've been discouraged because of all the injuries. Yes, maybe they are freak accidents, but this high man-games-lost trend over the past like 3 years is something that needs to be figured out organizationally if we're ever going to be competitive.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

No one said anything about drafting 1st OA, the point is that just because you get some high picks doesn't mean anything, it's how you develop them in time that matters.

Partially true. Many high picks do not need developing.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Prospects are nothing until they are something, no one knows what the Habs have in any of these prospects, We might end up with the talent of the Hawks but we do not have anything close being a contender.



He turns 28 in October, hard to be the goalie of the future, but I have never been a big fan and while I suck with evaluating goalies as it's the only position I never played, I have wondered if Primeau doesn't end up the better goalie.

Of course the Habs know what they have with most of their early picks or they wouldn't have drafted them. Some of the later picks are taking a flyer on long shot players with a high ceiling but low floor.

 

[Sorinth]

The hope is to have before the the Guhle contract ends, 3 near ppg players in Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Demidov. Caufield has a 60 + points player and one of Hage, Dach and our 2 first round pick next year as a 55 + points second line center and one of the other 3 as a 50 + points top 6 winger. Roy-Beck and Newhook as great bottom sixer with enough money and trade assets to add a top 4 RD and a top 6 forward.

I like the draft so far by Hughes, the development and the salary cap structure. The key fowards need to stay healthy and the Habs can be a Stanley cup contender in 5-6 years.

Caufield has a 65 point season already and it was considered a down season for him by most fans. Not sure how him being a 60 point player is the hope, if he can get back into that 12-14% shooting percentage that's an extra 10-15 goals putting him in that ppg range.

I also doubt the hope is that out of Hage, Dach, Newhook, plus 2025 picks the hope is to have one 55 point 2nd line center and one 50 point winger. Honestly it would be extremely disappointing if that where the case.

 

[StreetHawk]

Caufield has a 65 point season already and it was considered a down season for him by most fans. Not sure how him being a 60 point player is the hope, if he can get back into that 12-14% shooting percentage that's an extra 10-15 goals putting him in that ppg range.

I also doubt the hope is that out of Hage, Dach, Newhook, plus 2025 picks the hope is to have one 55 point 2nd line center and one 50 point winger. Honestly it would be extremely disappointing if that where the case.

If you are banking on Slaf, Suzuki and Caulfield to be in the top 6, then you are likely betting on Demidov as well. So, need a C and a Winger. Is that Dach or Beck as the thicker guys. Is that also Kapanen, Kidney, Hage, Mesar? Probably include Newhook as an option.

Just the CAD teams who made the PO, the points for the 3rd and 4th forwards were:

Van - Boeser at 73 was 3rd and then it dropped to Garland at 47 for 4th.
EDM - Hyman at 77 was 3rd, then Nuge at 67 for 4th and Kane at 44 for 5th.
WIN - Ehlers at 61 was 3rd then Perfetti at 38 was 4th
TOR - Marner at 85 was 3rd. Tavares at 65 was 4th, then Domi at 47 was 5th.

Van and Win had a Dman second in overall scoring. Edm had a Dman that was 3rd. Tor had one who was 5th. Montreal would need Hutson or someone to be a top 4/5 scorer on the roster.

 

[Mario Lemieux fan 66]

Caufield has a 65 point season already and it was considered a down season for him by most fans. Not sure how him being a 60 point player is the hope, if he can get back into that 12-14% shooting percentage that's an extra 10-15 goals putting him in that ppg range.

I also doubt the hope is that out of Hage, Dach, Newhook, plus 2025 picks the hope is to have one 55 point 2nd line center and one 50 point winger. Honestly it would be extremely disappointing if that where the case.

For Caufield i wrote 60 + points and with is size injuries may be a concern. Dach already has huge injuries problem if he can stay healthy have 55 + points seasons it will be a major win same thing with Newhook. Hage and the 1st round pick it's a wait and see, at least one of these assets will bust or will be a role player at best.

If Demidov, Suzuki and Slafkovski are near ppg and the Habs have 3 50 + points second line players + Newhook on the 3rd line it's gonna be great. I may be cautious in my hope but injuries and bust pick are part of the business.

 

[Sorinth]

For Caufield i wrote 60 + points and with is size injuries may be a concern. Dach already has huge injuries problem if he can stay healthy have 55 + points seasons it will be a major win same thing with Newhook. Hage and the 1st round pick it's a wait and see, at least one of these assets will bust or will be a role player at best.

If Demidov, Suzuki and Slafkovski are near ppg and the Habs have 3 50 + points second line players + Newhook on the 3rd line it's gonna be great. I may be cautious in my hope but injuries and bust pick are part of the business.

For Caufield you put what he's already done, with everybody else it was something they haven't yet achieved yet which is pun intended, selling him short. He's just as likely to be a ppg player as the others

The hope for Dach as 2nd line center has to be closer to 70+ points. He's a recent 3rd overall pick who has shown glimpses of being dominant. He might not reach that level but the hope has to be more then he stays healthy and produces like he did 2 years ago, especially since he likely has one of Demidov or Slafkovsky who you list as a ppg players on his wing.

 

[montreal]

I think we have a good idea of what some of these guys can do. In some cases health has gotten in the way but that doesn’t mean we don’t know anything about them.

Not close to a contender? Nobody will dispute that. The makings of a future contender though? Maybe already there. We have to wait.

We’ve chosen the path of many cup winners in that we’ve drafted high and aggressively traded for picks and prospects. I think it’s going to pay off with a good team down the road. Not every bet will pay off but some will.

The Hawks didn't know those players would become stars but they knew they had strong prospects. That's the stage we're at now. Hopefully we'll get similar results but there's no guarantee of that. At least we're following a proven template.

How can they have a good idea when most of their top prospects are just turning pro this year or next.

The makings of a future contender, maybe isn't a plan, Hughes just has to keep working and hope everyone is doing their jobs correctly.

I can't speak for what the Hawks knew about their prospects and when, but it doesn't matter one bit as there's no way anyone can really predict the rate of progress for prospects. The Habs could have a ton of talent incoming or they could suck ass for years to come, no one knows until you get a much clearer picture of your prospects, just have to wait and see.

Partially true. Many high picks do not need developing.

Said no serious person ever. The Crosby and McDavid's of the world are very rare. Do you think Demidov and Celebrini don't need development?

Of course the Habs know what they have with most of their early picks or they wouldn't have drafted them. Some of the later picks are taking a flyer on long shot players with a high ceiling but low floor.

That's mixing up 2 different things. They drafted these players based off various factors but that doesn't mean they know what these kids will turn into. How could they? Do you know what Reinbacher will turn into? How can anyone really know how these kids will progress or not when there are so many factors involved.

There's a reason why so many draft picks fail out of the 200+ that get drafted every year. Or why you don't see the 1st 10 picks of every draft end up 20 years later going 1-10 in points from that draft class. Scouting and development are very tough as projecting 17, 18, 19 year olds for 5 years down the road when so many things can go so many different ways.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

How can they have a good idea when most of their top prospects are just turning pro this year or next.

The makings of a future contender, maybe isn't a plan, Hughes just has to keep working and hope everyone is doing their jobs correctly.

He definitely has a plan: Stockpile young talent. And he's done that very well.

I can't speak for what the Hawks knew about their prospects and when, but it doesn't matter one bit as there's no way anyone can really predict the rate of progress for prospects. The Habs could have a ton of talent incoming or they could suck ass for years to come, no one knows until you get a much clearer picture of your prospects, just have to wait and see.

I think it's overly skeptical to say we can't know anything here. We already have some young players who've shown real promise in the lineup and we've got more on the way. That's definitely something to be excited about.

I guess it depends on how much skepticsm you want to apply here. As an example, is Connor Bedard going to be a star? We can't know for sure but he's got great potential to be one...

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

How can they have a good idea when most of their top prospects are just turning pro this year or next.

The makings of a future contender, maybe isn't a plan, Hughes just has to keep working and hope everyone is doing their jobs correctly.

I can't speak for what the Hawks knew about their prospects and when, but it doesn't matter one bit as there's no way anyone can really predict the rate of progress for prospects. The Habs could have a ton of talent incoming or they could suck ass for years to come, no one knows until you get a much clearer picture of your prospects, just have to wait and see.



Said no serious person ever. The Crosby and McDavid's of the world are very rare. Do you think Demidov and Celebrini don't need development?



That's mixing up 2 different things. They drafted these players based off various factors but that doesn't mean they know what these kids will turn into. How could they? Do you know what Reinbacher will turn into? How can anyone really know how these kids will progress or not when there are so many factors involved.

There's a reason why so many draft picks fail out of the 200+ that get drafted every year. Or why you don't see the 1st 10 picks of every draft end up 20 years later going 1-10 in points from that draft class. Scouting and development are very tough as projecting 17, 18, 19 year olds for 5 years down the road when so many things can go so many different ways.

The majority of HuGo's draft choices will become NHL players because they know how to evaluate players abilty, character and willingness to work to improve.

 

[montreal]

He definitely has a plan: Stockpile young talent. And he's done that very well.

I think it's overly skeptical to say we can't know anything here. We already have some young players who've shown real promise in the lineup and we've got more on the way. That's definitely something to be excited about.

I guess it depends on how much skepticsm you want to apply here. As an example, is Connor Bedard going to be a star? We can't know for sure but he's got great potential to be one...

That's what rebuilding teams do, stockpile young assets, but only time will tell if he's done that very well as getting a bunch of picks is easy, making the right ones is very hard.

It's not at all skeptical to say to can't know anything because we haven't seen our best prospects in the NHL. Until then it's very hard to know what you have.

Bedard will be a star, will Reinbacher or Sennecke or Will Smith or Kent Johnson, etc...? There's very few guys that on draft day you say oh we know he's going to be a star.

 

[montreal]

The majority of HuGo's draft choices will become NHL players because they know how to evaluate players abilty, character and willingness to work to improve.

That could well be but no one said anything about becoming NHLers, and it's too early to say how well they evaluate players ability etc...

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That's what rebuilding teams do, stockpile young assets, but only time will tell if he's done that very well as getting a bunch of picks is easy, making the right ones is very hard.

It's not at all skeptical to say to can't know anything because we haven't seen our best prospects in the NHL. Until then it's very hard to know what you have.

Bedard will be a star, will Reinbacher or Sennecke or Will Smith or Kent Johnson, etc...? There's very few guys that on draft day you say oh we know he's going to be a star.

Slaf has made amazing progress. Caufield got off to an incredible start to his career. Hutson looks ready to go. Three great young players just starting their careers.

None of these guys are guaranteed but I think there's lots to be excited about. I'm stoked with what we've done.

 

[montreal]

Slaf has made amazing progress. Caufield got off to an incredible start to his career. Hutson looks ready to go. Three great young players just starting their careers.

None of these guys are guaranteed but I think there's lots to be excited about. I'm stoked with what we've done.

Slaf had a great 2nd half, what does that mean for his future, do think anyone really knows what the future holds for Slaf? Will he put up 100 points, 80? 60, who knows. Lots of questions still need to be answered, for whatever reason we see how some rookies struggle in their 2nd full season, how do they bounce back from that if they do, how do you know how he would handle that if that happened? The point is people try to pretend they know things that are just about impossible to know.

Caufield i've been a big fan of but what will he do in the NHL, will he score 50? get 100 pts, 80 pts, who knows as there's no way these guys put up those huge point totals without a lot of help from the blueline moving the puck much better and having a stronger PP.

I've seen every game Hutson has played since we drafted him, I've been his biggest supporter on this site and ranked him 1st OA in Nov of '22 in my Habs top 20 prospect rankings. But despite the 200-300 games a year I watch of NCAA, AHL, SHL, CHL, MHL, etc.. and I've been doing that for over 20 years, I couldn't even begin to say what will Lane Hutson turn into. I've watched tons and tons of NCAA hockey and I have never seen anyone like Hutson but when it comes to the playoffs can you say he's going to be able to hold up in his own end or will have issues? What about how much he often relies on himself vs using his teammates more, how will that impact him at the NHL level?

No one said anything about no being excited about our prospects, that's the very nature of having prospects, they bring hope but the question was do we have high end pieces require to convert the rebuild to a success? That has nothing to do with being excited about our prospects, as I am very excited for them but I have watched the Habs struggle to draft and develop talent, it's been a rough 20 years for the organization in that regard and longer of course.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Slaf had a great 2nd half, what does that mean for his future, do think anyone really knows what the future holds for Slaf? Will he put up 100 points, 80? 60, who knows. Lots of questions still need to be answered, for whatever reason we see how some rookies struggle in their 2nd full season, how do they bounce back from that if they do, how do you know how he would handle that if that happened? The point is people try to pretend they know things that are just about impossible to know.

Caufield i've been a big fan of but what will he do in the NHL, will he score 50? get 100 pts, 80 pts, who knows as there's no way these guys put up those huge point totals without a lot of help from the blueline moving the puck much better and having a stronger PP.

I've seen every game Hutson has played since we drafted him, I've been his biggest supporter on this site and ranked him 1st OA in Nov of '22 in my Habs top 20 prospect rankings. But despite the 200-300 games a year I watch of NCAA, AHL, SHL, CHL, MHL, etc.. and I've been doing that for over 20 years, I couldn't even begin to say what will Lane Hutson turn into. I've watched tons and tons of NCAA hockey and I have never seen anyone like Hutson but when it comes to the playoffs can you say he's going to be able to hold up in his own end or will have issues? What about how much he often relies on himself vs using his teammates more, how will that impact him at the NHL level?

No one said anything about no being excited about our prospects, that's the very nature of having prospects, they bring hope but the question was do we have high end pieces require to convert the rebuild to a success? That has nothing to do with being excited about our prospects, as I am very excited for them but I have watched the Habs struggle to draft and develop talent, it's been a rough 20 years for the organization in that regard and longer of course.

Fair enough.

Nobody has a crystal ball. But there are so many highly rated prospects here that I can't see some of them panning out. Will all of them pan out? No. But there's so much depth in terms of exciting guys coming up. I think we're on the right track and I'm excited about where we're going.

I think we're going to improve this year but not make the playoffs. I expect we'll make it next season. But a LOT is going to depend on health. Dach and CC in particular need to get healthier for us to get to the next level.

 

[montreal]

Fair enough.

I think it's true that nobody has a crystal ball. But there are so many highly rated prospects here that I can't see some of them panning out. Will all of them pan out? No. But there's so much depth in terms of exciting guys coming up. I think we're on the right track and I'm excited about where we're going.

I think we're going to improve this year but not make the playoffs. I expect we'll make it next season. But a LOT is going to depend on health. Dach and CC in particular need to get healthier for us to get to the next level.

and that doesn't really matter as it will be great to add a bunch of NHLers in the coming years but they need to be really, really good if we are talking about being a cup contender.

That's why with prospects you can't count on them until they show what the can do in the NHL outside of the rare few that are NHL ready at 17/18.

But making the playoffs is shit, we are talking about contender status, something we haven't seen much of for the past 30 years and while that can certainly happen, I don't see how anyone can really know where we are in that regard until we have much clearer picture of Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, Demidov, Hage, Fowerl, Volohkin, etc......