The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Scintillating10]

There was nothing easy or obvious about trading for Dach or Newhook, or leveraging Monahan for 1st round picks. Or, for that matter, drafting the specific players we did, versus Shane Wright or Michkov. Those are high-level decisions, certainly not something a typical hockey fan is qualified to do.

To be clear, every one of Hughes' decisions comes with a risk – Dach's health, Reinbacher's upside, etc. – but risk is exactly what makes them high-level decisions. No-risk, obvious decisions like drafting Bedard are easy, but Habs never had that option. Sure, there are plenty of hard decisions to come, but the decisions Hughes has made so far haven't been easy or obvious.

The willingness to take risks – knowing they may not work out – is the only way to build a winner. Bergevin refused to do that. Hughes has, which is why he deserves a top grade even though the job isn't finished.

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

 

[Benstheman]

Next step, we start learning to win. I want to see steady improvement for next 2 years. Although, the big influx of talent and progression should come in for the 2025-2026 season with Demidov, Reinbacher, Mailloux and maybe a solid UFA acquisition, i want the 2024-2025 season to be a good step forward.

The two important areas i see as being vital for our team going forward :

1- Having a solid 2nd line that can step up when 1st line is flat. Healthy Dach is essential and i would say getting him a legit 2nd line winger is also. Laine would be a great add in that sense.

2-Keep getting improvment from the 1st AND 2nd PP units. That's where i think Hutson will have the biggest impact. I am not sure how coaches will deal with PP time for Hutson and Matheson but i am 99,9% positive Hutson will push Matheson aside as the 1st PP QB before the end of the season.

I would be happy with a 23th to 25th place finish and i think it's a reasonable outcome.

B+.

I mean, we sucked and picked top picks so far 3 years in a row. This will fast track any rebuild.

That said, what usually makes the distinction from a good foundation to a great team is how you add.

Montreal GMs have historically sucked when adding the 'missing piece' for a contender. That big time free agent who snubs montreal and all that.

So until that changes I cannot give an A because that is what would separate Hughes from others.

That's why you have to think long and hard about a gamble like Laine imo.

 

[Lshap]

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

We gave up value for Dach or Newhook, but I don't consider that paying through the nose. That's the bold risk you have to take when assembling a young core in the early stages of a rebuild. You have to give in order to get. I love both trades and hope Hughes does more of them. Is it possible Dach will be chronically injured? Sure. But it's more likely he becomes the powerful top C we've seen in glimpses.

You and I could've drafted Bedard, McDavid, or Matthews – they were no-brainers. Hughes didn't have that luxury. He had to make tough decisions and sacrifices, and the roster and contracts we currently have reflect Hughes' vision of team-building. Time will tell whether his gambles pay off, but I gave him an "A" based on how his gambles are developing so far.

 

[BLONG7]

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

You love MB still?? LOL....

 

[rve24]

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

What was the gauranteed return for Anderson Hughes turned down?
Paid thru the nose......not really at all.
A redundant young D for chance at a #2 big centre former 3rd OA......any and every day please.
How many late 1st rd picks contribute anything significant in the NHL? (Hint....not many) Newhook will out perform most late 1st rd picks taken around the pick they moved. Again worth a shot but I'll say not as happy as with the Dach deal)
Mesar, not my cup of tea but they looked for skill is my guess. ( and the obvious connection to another pick that year )
So ya don't wanna gamble on a Dach or Newhook but wanna gamble on a redundant D or picks that historically for all nhl teams don't give ya a whole lot?
Sounds like just trying to pick a bone for whatever reason.
Not all moves will work out but they have taken shots, been creative and aggressive and it's refreshing.

 

[The Last Red]

He's made mistakes but I'm glad we hired Hughes instead of Briere.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He's made mistakes but I'm glad we hired Hughes instead of Briere.

It's funny but I have a hard time coming up with mistakes for him. We may have drafted the wrong players and we'll see that in time I guess. But he's executed really well.

Much better than I'd expect from average GM let alone the crappy ones we've had for so long.

 

[ReHabs]

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

• Refusing to trade Anderson for whatever he could get was a bad move but KH's former firm was Anderson's agency and they were gambling/betting on Anderson's upside. He got it wrong though.
• Drafting Mesar was fine. Mesar wasn't a reach and in the lower first round you want to swing for high-upside players. What's the point, otherwise?
• He got cooked by Sakic/COL on the Lehkonen trade for sure, another bad move the moment it was made.
• Dach was expensive but again, you want to swing for high-upside players.
• I don't like Newhook's ceiling but we essentially got a solid middle6er with top6 upside (and Cup winning experience) at palatable price and good cap hit -- a kind of necessary rebuilding team move when the team had so few NHL-worthy forward prospects.

I won't list his other moves because you didn't mention them but I think he got it wrong on the Toffoli return from CGY as well. Also, I've defended their choice in Reinbacher over Michkov many times because I see the reasoning/logic but if Michkov turns out to be a big time player and Reinbacher does not... that's on Hughes just as the Kostitsyn pick is on Gainey and the Kotkaniemi pick is on Bergevin.

Regardless, overall, we look to have a ton of cap-space going forward and a team that has so far not declined in terms of results (pt% year on year has gone up). If he swings a big return on Matheson it would be a wise move imo. If he swings a good return on Savard at the TDL, oh boy. If he manages to sell either or both of Armia or Dvorak as the TDL approaches we can appreciate it. These are the moves we should anticipate and evaluate coming up.

To Hughes' credit he didn't make any bad signings yet and he wisely avoided the UFA frenzy of this summer where so many bad contracts to bad players were handed out.

I think Hughes is average but ONLY because he hasn't tried to build a competitive yet. What he's done so far is relatively simple and he had no pressure to perform (in fact he had pressure to tank, and I think he could've tanked better in the 22-23 season where we ended up at 5OA) and so he can only get so much credit for his work so far. With that said, the real test comes when he has to make decisions and moves to build a winner and that have sincere opportunity cost. If he gets those decisions right (or if his thinking is right) he will be eligible for a higher grade. So you can do like LShap and give him an A on what you can review so far or you can be a miser like me and give him an Incomplete/C until further notice.

 

[slybel]

Another trade year coming up. Hope the compete in 2026 else...

 

[Gaud]

Next step, we start learning to win. I want to see steady improvement for next 2 years. Although, the big influx of talent and progression should come in for the 2025-2026 season with Demidov, Reinbacher, Mailloux and maybe a solid UFA acquisition, i want the 2024-2025 season to be a good step forward.

The two important areas i see as being vital for our team going forward :

1- Having a solid 2nd line that can step up when 1st line is flat. Healthy Dach is essential and i would say getting him a legit 2nd line winger is also. Laine would be a great add in that sense.

2-Keep getting improvment from the 1st AND 2nd PP units. That's where i think Hutson will have the biggest impact. I am not sure how coaches will deal with PP time for Hutson and Matheson but i am 99,9% positive Hutson will push Matheson aside as the 1st PP QB before the end of the season.

I would be happy with a 23th to 25th place finish and i think it's a reasonable outcome.


That's why you have to think long and hard about a gamble like Laine imo.

Also in answer to the OP's "Now What?" and possibly before or in between the above steps, I'd say that we are nearing a point where we start to consolidate our assets. We have a lot of positions that are "locked in" for some time and we have more assets than the few spots that will be liberated because of the underperforming vets occupying them.

Montreal has 42 contracts presently, plus the players in Europe. I'm not quite over the loss of Capfriendly yet haha so I am not sure if that includes the latest draftees. I thought we were closer to 50. We have 8-10 picks in the next draft (some conditional) Anyways, I see the next steps as packaging these assets to make our 50 contracts stronger, especially for the roster spots in the NHL.

 

[Benstheman]

Also in answer to the OP's "Now What?" and possibly before or in between the above steps, I'd say that we are nearing a point where we start to consolidate our assets. We have a lot of positions that are "locked in" for some time and we have more assets than the few spots that will be liberated because of the underperforming vets occupying them.

Montreal has 42 contracts presently, plus the players in Europe. I'm not quite over the loss of Capfriendly yet haha so I am not sure if that includes the latest draftees. I thought we were closer to 50. We have 8-10 picks in the next draft (some conditional) Anyways, I see the next steps as packaging these assets to make our 50 contracts stronger, especially for the roster spots in the NHL.

And we might get some more 2nd and 3rd rounds picks with Savard, Armia and Dvorak as rentals as TDL. Something will happen. I guess a team that starts his rebuild like the Flames could be interested in quantity.

IMO, every picks in the next draft are on the table except our own 1st who could very well be another top 5/top 10 pick.

 

[Gaud]

And we might get some more 2nd and 3rd rounds picks with Savard, Armia and Dvorak as rentals as TDL. Something will happen. I guess a team that starts his rebuild like the Flames could be interested in quantity.

IMO, every picks in the next draft are on the table except our own 1st who could very well be another top 5/top 10 pick.

absolutely. I am pretty psyched about this step in the process, personally. I am not convinced in our goalie tandem and i think we need a top six winger, but the rest shoudl grow into their positions over time.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Rebuild just started , lets not get ahead of ourselves

Hughes made a lot of stupid moves though. Refusing to trade Anderson for big return two years ago. Drafting of Mesar was waste of a first rounder. Got took on Barron. He has no hockey sense.

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

I can't imagine what bullsh** bergevin would be doing with this team , certainly not a rebuild , he would be undergoing some other rendition of *doing absolutely nothing with the franchise for 10 years*. Like we just went through

 

[Benstheman]

absolutely. I am pretty psyched about this step in the process, personally. I am not convinced in our goalie tandem and i think we need a top six winger, but the rest shoudl grow into their positions over time.

I would look for a blockbuster deal with Calgary, if they finally commit to a full rebuild.

Sharangovich and R.Andersson for multiple picks and prospects.

Sharangovich is 26 yo and entering his prime. 30 goals scorer with good size. Signed until 2030. Can easily fit on Dach wings.

Andersson is 27 yo in his prime. Solid 2-way RHD that can play PP and PK. Can eat big minutes. IMO, the perfect compliment to Reinbacher and Mailloux on the right side. Can fill the top pair D spot until Reinbacher is ready. The only thing is his contract ends in two seasons.

Because of Andersson's contract situation, i would prefer to do the deal next summer before or at the draft so we can extend him right after. Would also try to include Matheson in the deal. Calgary can extend him or trade him back for picks/prospects.

2025-2026

Slaf-Suzuki-Demidov
Sharangovich-Dach-Caufield
Newhook-Beck-Roy
Anderson-Evans-Gallagher

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Mailloux


With Hage and our 2025 1st pick (top 10) almost ready for the next season.

 

[Saundies]

Rebuild just started , lets not get ahead of ourselves

I mean... not really.

We're in year 4. How much longer do you expect to be bottom of the barrel terrible? Let's say a rebuild should ideally take 5 years, we're in the latter half of that now.

It's time to start progressing a little.

 

[B1g B1rd]

What's next? This is where it becomes interesting.

- We have a good potential top 6 with Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf and Demidov coming up. Nothing extraordinary except if Demidov lives to highest expectations. Dach? Maybe. Lets see if he can stay healthy. One more top 6 missing. Hage? Maybe. Newhook? Not sure.
- We have a good potential defense with Matheson, Ghule, Reinbacher, Hutson, Xhekaj and maybe Mailloux or Engstrom;
- We have cap space, picks, trading material (Barron, Harris, Dvorak, Armia, Evans..) and some prospects (Kapanen, Mesar, Beck, Fowler...) we can either develop or trade;
- We have a good head coach and have really worked on building an environment for developing the prospects.
I think its a pretty good start. Coming from where we were when Bargain got fired, I think HuGo deserves an A.

IMO, all this was fairly easy, not much pressure, just a disciplined vision and execution. Like my golf game... Going from 140 to 100 was pretty quick'n easy. After that, it became tougher (90) and much tougher (under 90).

Thats where we'll see the true value of HuGo and their vision. Can they transform our potential team into a Stanley Cup runner? I'll never be a good golfer, I lack the talent and the patience to work on the small things that make the difference. Do we have enough talent? Will HuGo be patient and resist to the growing expectations of this very emotive and demanding fan base?

 

[Benstheman]

What's next? This is where it becomes interesting.

- We have a good potential top 6 with Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf and Demidov coming up. Nothing extraordinary except if Demidov lives to highest expectations. Dach? Maybe. Lets see if he can stay healthy. One more top 6 missing. Hage? Maybe. Newhook? Not sure.
- We have a good potential defense with Matheson, Ghule, Reinbacher, Hutson, Xhekaj and maybe Mailloux or Engstrom;
- We have cap space, picks, trading material (Barron, Harris, Dvorak, Armia, Evans..) and some prospects (Kapanen, Mesar, Beck, Fowler...) we can either develop or trade;
- We have a good head coach and have really worked on building an environment for developing the prospects.
I think its a pretty good start. Coming from where we were when Bargain got fired, I think HuGo deserves an A.

IMO, all this was fairly easy, not much pressure, just a disciplined vision and execution. Like my golf game... Going from 140 to 100 was pretty quick'n easy. After that, it became tougher (90) and much tougher (under 90).

Thats where we'll see the true value of HuGo and their vision. Can they transform our potential team into a Stanley Cup runner? I'll never be a good golfer, I lack the talent and the patience to work on the small things that make the difference. Do we have enough talent? Will HuGo be patient and resist to the growing expectations of this very emotive and demanding fan base?

I agree. And at some point, HuGo will have to make harder decisions, take some risks. That's why i think Laine is a good option. Because you won't have to pay much to get him and it won't disrupt the process if it doesn't work out.

 

[Habby4Life]

• Refusing to trade Anderson for whatever he could get was a bad move but KH's former firm was Anderson's agency and they were gambling/betting on Anderson's upside. He got it wrong though.
• Drafting Mesar was fine. Mesar wasn't a reach and in the lower first round you want to swing for high-upside players. What's the point, otherwise?
• He got cooked by Sakic/COL on the Lehkonen trade for sure, another bad move the moment it was made.
• Dach was expensive but again, you want to swing for high-upside players.
• I don't like Newhook's ceiling but we essentially got a solid middle6er with top6 upside (and Cup winning experience) at palatable price and good cap hit -- a kind of necessary rebuilding team move when the team had so few NHL-worthy forward prospects.

I won't list his other moves because you didn't mention them but I think he got it wrong on the Toffoli return from CGY as well. Also, I've defended their choice in Reinbacher over Michkov many times because I see the reasoning/logic but if Michkov turns out to be a big time player and Reinbacher does not... that's on Hughes just as the Kostitsyn pick is on Gainey and the Kotkaniemi pick is on Bergevin.

Regardless, overall, we look to have a ton of cap-space going forward and a team that has so far not declined in terms of results (pt% year on year has gone up). If he swings a big return on Matheson it would be a wise move imo. If he swings a good return on Savard at the TDL, oh boy. If he manages to sell either or both of Armia or Dvorak as the TDL approaches we can appreciate it. These are the moves we should anticipate and evaluate coming up.

To Hughes' credit he didn't make any bad signings yet and he wisely avoided the UFA frenzy of this summer where so many bad contracts to bad players were handed out.

I think Hughes is average but ONLY because he hasn't tried to build a competitive yet. What he's done so far is relatively simple and he had no pressure to perform (in fact he had pressure to tank, and I think he could've tanked better in the 22-23 season where we ended up at 5OA) and so he can only get so much credit for his work so far. With that said, the real test comes when he has to make decisions and moves to build a winner and that have sincere opportunity cost. If he gets those decisions right (or if his thinking is right) he will be eligible for a higher grade. So you can do like LShap and give him an A on what you can review so far or you can be a miser like me and give him an Incomplete/C until further notice.

I agree with your incomplete. I’m glad they decided to rebuild but the losing and selecting top picks is the easy part. Now we will see what kind of GM he is because it’s time to start rounding out the roster via other methods. They can’t just draft their way into being a contender.

I mean... not really.

We're in year 4. How much longer do you expect to be bottom of the barrel terrible? Let's say a rebuild should ideally take 5 years, we're in the latter half of that now.

It's time to start progressing a little.

100%

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I mean... not really.

We're in year 4. How much longer do you expect to be bottom of the barrel terrible? Let's say a rebuild should ideally take 5 years, we're in the latter half of that now.

It's time to start progressing a little.

Yeah you can progress , its still a rebuild though , 50% of the roster right now won't be around when we are good

 

[ReHabs]

Yeah you can progress , its still a rebuild though , 50% of the roster right now won't be around when we are good

It's iterative. You need to play playoff series, evaluate and adjust, and try again. You need to win playoff series, evaluate and adjust, and try again. Etc. Sometimes no matter what, your core is problematic and you cannot get over the hump -- so you need a GM who can make the major surgery without harming the team's trajectory.

At every point there will be transactions and roster re-considerations. We can't just flip a switch or swap out half the roster in one go or expect the roster to "organically" develop without major transactions and changes to the point of going from bottom5 to winning playoff series.

It's gradual and iterative and at this point in time we should expect to see them play more meaningful games... and I'll add that injuries are not a 100% blanket excuse. Good teams endure injuries. To be a good team you need depth. Hughes has not gotten to that point yet. It feels like he's satisfied in the holding pattern for yet another season but I'm withholding judgement (even though I prefer to see him acquire depth right away) until the season starts.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

It's iterative. You need to play playoff series, evaluate and adjust, and try again. You need to win playoff series, evaluate and adjust, and try again. Etc. Sometimes no matter what, your core is problematic and you cannot get over the hump -- so you need a GM who can make the major surgery without harming the team's trajectory.

At every point there will be transactions and roster re-considerations. We can't just flip a switch or swap out half the roster in one go or expect the roster to "organically" develop without major transactions and changes to the point of going from bottom5 to winning playoff series.

It's gradual and iterative and at this point in time we should expect to see them play more meaningful games... and I'll add that injuries are not a 100% blanket excuse. Good teams endure injuries. To be a good team you need depth. Hughes has not gotten to that point yet. It feels like he's satisfied in the holding pattern for yet another season but I'm withholding judgement (even though I prefer to see him acquire depth right away) until the season starts.

I think our contention window will open when our D mature which will take time , I see a path for improvement but not for contention until Demidov and the young D mature.

No use rushing things , especially since the D take time to mature...just my 2 cents... you can't rush the process when it comes to dmen they simply take more time. And ours are so young

 

[ReHabs]

I think our contention window will open when our D mature which will take time , I see a path for improvement but not for contention until Demidov and the young D mature.

No use rushing things , especially since the D take time to mature...just my 2 cents... you can't rush the process when it comes to dmen they simply take more time. And ours are so young

Yeah letting them mature and play on is the right move. I wouldn’t cut any of Guhle, Reinbacher, or Hutson loose. I considered Guhle only in the case the Habs had Demidov off the board and would pick a dman, otherwise he’s not worth trading away prior to this all important season for him.

Xhekaj is a cheap fan favourite and worth retaining for the excitement he brings. Harris and Barron I don’t like much at all. Mailloux might be an x-factor and I bet he’s targeted by GMs in trade talks. Engstrom and the Russians I dunno.

 

[TesseractPrice]

We paid thru the nose for Dach/Newhook. The Dach deal he gave up good young D for injury prone player. Along with first pick in third round. Newhook costs us a first rounder and early 2nd. That was no steal.

Hughes is about average GM.

The player Newhook was at the end of the season would have been worth a late 1st as a rental UFA at the trade deadline

Between the deadline and the end of the season, Newhook had 14 points in 19 games while playing as the 2C. He had around the same production and rate as Barzal, Sveshnikov, Konecny and... Caufield. I'm not saying he's better than any of these guys and that we should expect this production to be sustainable for the next season, but a winger who can play 2C in a pinch and produce at an acceptable to great rate... that's worth way more than a late 1st and early 2nd pick

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Rebuild just started , lets not get ahead of ourselves

A wise approach.

I wouldn't force the pace as one shouldn't set any arbitrary deadlines. With 2 firsts , 2 seconds and 3 thirds in the upcoming draft, coupled with the coming wave of talented prospects and an increase in the cap, this is a pivotal year to flush under-performing veterans and less than promising prospects out of our pool of players.

Once you see Hughes actively enter into the FA market, you will know that, at least in the team's management's opinion, we have turned the corner and are in the 'win now' mindset.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

A wise approach.

I wouldn't force the pace as one shouldn't set any arbitrary deadlines. With 2 firsts , 2 seconds and 3 thirds in the upcoming draft, coupled with the coming wave of talented prospects and an increase in the cap, this is a pivotal year to flush under-performing veterans and less than promising prospects out of our pool of players.

Once you see Hughes actively enter into the FA market, you will know that, at least in the team's management's opinion, we have turned the corner and are in the 'win now' mindset.

The issue is you can't have a time machine to make Reinbacher engstrom mailloux hutson Ghule 3 years older.....Its gonna have to happen organically , We can't expect all these kids to reach their potential at 22-23-24...