Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[Junohockeyfan]

I could add using his body to power himself into the slot. But I think it’s still secondary. If he doesn’t shoot or has a sloppy release when he’s wedged in the slot, it’s pointless.

I think a lot has to do with his read of the play and his preference to defer to Suzuki and Caufield. Caufield as an example is always looking to get to the middle of the ice for a shot. Slaf is still unsure what to do when he has the puck and looks to dish off as quick as possible.

In the WC's - Slaf was the go-to buy and he was looking to get to the middle and skate with the puck. That's the guy i want to see. Not sure how we get there.

 

[Gravity]

I also don't get how people are saying Slaf's ceiling is 65-75 points. He's on pace for 44 this year on a dogshit team with a terrible 1st half at only 19 years old.

 

[Redux91]

Slaf is showing or has shown....

- he can thread the needle and make great passes
- he can score from difficult angle with pure snipes
- he can score from the slot with power
- he can score in dirty utilizing his size and strength
- he can control the puck along the boards, and is a possession monster
- he can play defense and knows where to be on the ice
- he can skate and close gaps on the back check
- he can hit.
- he is worthy of a #1 OV pick.

We all spoke earlier about working on his shooting. He is doing/has done that.

What is next? What do you see as his next challenge?

Can he reach another gear with skating? I would like to see him work on skating next. Work on edge work and shiftiness. Tough thing for a guy his size, but would be something if he had another gear in a straight line and could be shiftier like a little guy.

Like I said last time lol
For me I want to see him on a NHL breakaway and score, that's 1 step I'd like to see
That or the vid WTK posted lol
But be careful rehabs might dock it for being vs Kazakhstan again

Nevermind Gord Miller who's seen and called every WJC the last 20 years showering this undrafted monster with praise saying someone's getting a player with that one

 

[Kennerback]

I think a lot has to do with his read of the play and his preference to defer to Suzuki and Caufield. Caufield as an example is always looking to get to the middle of the ice for a shot. Slaf is still unsure what to do when he has the puck and looks to dish off as quick as possible.

In the WC's - Slaf was the go-to buy and he was looking to get to the middle and skate with the puck. That's the guy i want to see. Not sure how we get there.

In non-pro levels, I’ve seen him litterally power walk to the slot barely acknowledging the defenders he skated through and shoot. Maybe we’ll see that one day in the NHL, who knows.

 

[Mrb1p]

Last season, 65 players had a shooting percentage of 15.0% or more and scored at least 20 points Out of the 65, 45 scored at least 40 points.

15% is really not unsustainable for guys who do not waste shots from far into the chest protector.

15% is unsustainable, theres no way around it. Its high. It doesnt mean a player cant hold that for 50 or 100 games, it means hes bound to regress. Its basic statistics. The very best shooters that arent volume shooters will generally run around with 14-15%. Slaf is a good shooter, hes not an elite one, his shooting % will probably normalize between 11 and 13.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The problem with the 2023 draft is we had only two top 100 picks because of the Newhook trade. I'd like us to acquire an extra 2nd round pick for this year and keep all our picks unless a stud is available I don't hate Newhook but he is a complement more than anything else. We need more studs (at least two dmen and two forwards) and unless a stud is available we should keep our picks this year.

They don't see that as a problem because there was already a number of prospects in the system due to the amount of picks they had and used in 2022 and the number of extra 2nd rounders in the system from the Bergevin regime.

They are going to continue to acquire picks and also trade picks because there's a contract limit. We are already on the fence about signing someone like Guindon who is a perfectly good prospect who may just get squeezed out.

The other thing is that a late 1st/early 2nd, if they make it, aren't going to impact the roster for 4-5 seasons. The Habs were looking to accelerate some infrastructure around Suzuki and Caufield, and it's looking like the right move as both players continue to progress and show worth as first liners.

Not a fan of the Newhook trade or the Rein selection but it is what it is. They really killed it in 2022 though. Slaf seems to be the correct choice and they added Beck + Hutson to that so really well done.

Why would you not be a fan of the Newhook trade? It's two unlikely picks to amount to NHLers for a surefire NHLer who brings elements we need now.

And for the Reinbacher selection, for everything that happened with Slafkovsky, don't you think they have earned the benefit of the doubt?

look I can turn around and say he's looking really good but we also don't have to pretend and flail around trying to justify a shooting percentage at 15-20% and say that it is realistic for him to keep this up

he'll slow down, that doesn't mean his progression will stall or regress

OK but can we also agree that the dip in shooting percentage will likely be compensated by an increased frequency of shots, where he doesn't shoot enough as is and will shoot more as he grows?

 

[Mrb1p]

Like I said last time lol
For me I want to see him on a NHL breakaway and score, that's 1 step I'd like to see
That or the vid WTK posted lol
But be careful rehabs might dock it for being vs Kazakhstan again

Nevermind Gord Miller who's seen and called every WJC the last 20 years showering this undrafted monster with praise saying someone's getting a player with that one

Didnt he score on a breakaway vs the Sens last year?

 

[Gravity]

They don't see that as a problem because there was already a number of prospects in the system due to the amount of picks they had and used in 2022 and the number of extra 2nd rounders in the system from the Bergevin regime.

They are going to continue to acquire picks and also trade picks because there's a contract limit. We are already on the fence about signing someone like Guindon who is a perfectly good prospect who may just get squeezed out.

The other thing is that a late 1st/early 2nd, if they make it, aren't going to impact the roster for 4-5 seasons. The Habs were looking to accelerate some infrastructure around Suzuki and Caufield, and it's looking like the right move as both players continue to progress and show worth as first liners.



Why would you not be a fan of the Newhook trade? It's two unlikely picks to amount to NHLers for a surefire NHLer who brings elements we need now.

And for the Reinbacher selection, for everything that happened with Slafkovsky, don't you think they have earned the benefit of the doubt?



OK but can we also agree that the dip in shooting percentage will likely be compensated by an increased frequency of shots, where he doesn't shoot enough as is and will shoot more as he grows?

Not a big fan of Newhook the player. Sure he's fast but looks like a middle 6 winger. Not something worth spending assets on.

As for Reinbacher, of course they've earned the benefit of the doubt. I'm not a fan of the Rein selection but will wait until both he and Michkov are in the league to come to a conclusion.

 

[Redux91]

I think they nailed the 2022 draft and made up for it in 2023.

I've been meaning to bring this up too..

2022 you get
-#1LW (but most importantly someone to play next to Suzuki Caufield)
-edit*** I almost forgot , trading for a 6"4 top6 C***
- A potential top6 F or good trade asset
- Our future 3C with a actual shot
- Potential top4 LD with guaranteed PP success
- Potential NHL LD shining overseas or good trade asset

2023 they obviously weren't thrilled with or missed out on top end talent, so decided to take a stab at trying to plug a few upcoming glaring holes for the rebuild as they zone in on the 2024 draft
- Potential 1RD
- Traded for a top 9 F with speed
- Potential 1G
- Potential Great bottom 6er (I like that kind of long term planning)
- Sneaky smart overage russian RD that makes other teams look stupid having passed on / good trade asset
- Couple more "just in case goalies"

That's not nothing man..
Now we have this year, another top 10 pick, +extra 1st + extra wtv more comes in at deadline..

Honestly.. they make Bergevin look worse and worse by the minute.. it's incredible really..

We're in good hands

 

[WeThreeKings]

Not a big fan of Newhook the player. Sure he's fast but looks like a middle 6 winger. Not something worth spending assets on.

As for Reinbacher, of course they've earned the benefit of the doubt. I'm not a fan of the Rein selection but will wait until both he and Michkov are in the league to come to a conclusion.

But that's the thing.. the odds a late first or an early second before a cromulent middle 6er aren't very high. So they cashed those in for cost certainty and with a belief the upside is higher.

 

[morhilane]

Not shooting enough. Improving his release.

He's already a lot more constant over the last two months and improved his shot output, now it's just maintaining that over more than 5-6 games. He would have even more shot if Matheson passed to him on the PP too.

If he continue to progress and use the goalie to create rebound more, I can see him go round ~3-4 shots games next season.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Since January 15th (1 month) he’s played 12 games and averaged roughly 2.5 shots per game, a huge improvement from the first half of the season.

On that pace for next season he’d shoot about 200 times and score about 25-30 goals.

As for the shooting percentage, he gets a lot of High Danger opportunities near the net, his percentage will be higher than a lot of players as a result. Suzuki has been shooting over 15% the last two seasons, he has a better shot but Juraj’s body and game will get him to danger areas more often.

He’s going to be a 30 goal guy, without question. Possibly as early as next year.

 

[Jaynki]

Not a big fan of Newhook the player. Sure he's fast but looks like a middle 6 winger. Not something worth spending assets on.

As for Reinbacher, of course they've earned the benefit of the doubt. I'm not a fan of the Rein selection but will wait until both he and Michkov are in the league to come to a conclusion.

A middle six winger is the most commonly available asset. Traded each in every year for meh return. Available each and every year through free agency.

A 2nd RD pick is the most commonly traded assets. Traded each and every year for rentals or depth.

Two 2nd RD picks for Newhook is the most common, normal trade.

 

[Gravity]

But that's the thing.. the odds a late first or an early second before a cromulent middle 6er aren't very high. So they cashed those in for cost certainty and with a belief the upside is higher.

A middle six winger is the most commonly available asset.

A 2nd RD pick is the most commonly traded assets.

Two 2nd RD picks for Newhook is the most common, normal trade.

Remains to be seen what those picks turn into. We did waste a couple of seconds on Shaw and one of those picks turned out to be Debrincat.

 

[WeThreeKings]

A middle six winger is the most commonly available asset. Traded each in every year for meh return. Available each and every year through free agency.

A 2nd RD pick is the most commonly traded assets. Traded each and every year for rentals or depth.

Two 2nd RD picks for Newhook is the most common, normal trade.

They believe(d) Newhook has more potential and more to give.

The trade is not a bad trade, especially considering Newhook is a young player coming off his ELC. Those guys aren't available all that often.

Remains to be seen what those picks turn into. We did waste a couple of seconds on Shaw and one of those picks turned out to be Debrincat.

Sure but you can only go off of what the asset value and likelihood is.. it'd be like being mad the Habs traded a 7th round pick one year because Datsyuk went with that pick.. the likelihood of that pick turning into that calibre of player is low.

Shaw was a bad trade because he was a bad player that had to be shed for salary reasons. Newhook is a different move altogether.

 

[cphabs]

Curious what everyone feels his key weaknesses are at this point in his development. Enough of the lovefest!

Continued adjustment to a smaller ice surface and experience in the NHL with players of his caliber. They go hand in hand, but that’s what I think.

 

[Pazucha]

Could have had 4 pts last night.

Newhook missed the deflection and Slaf kinda botched the 3 on 1, could have shot that one but forced it a bit to Caufield.

There was also that backhand shot in the first (unfortunately Nick pass was slow and bouncy)

 

[Kennerback]

I also don't get how people are saying Slaf's ceiling is 65-75 points. He's on pace for 44 this year on a dogshit team with a terrible 1st half at only 19 years old.

Four players had 75 points last season. Hintz, Kaprizov, Ovechkin, Nelson. My personal points projection for him has been in flux in the past weeks. Maybe I’m too cautious, but I need more data.

 

[Gravity]

Curious what everyone feels his key weaknesses are at this point in his development. Enough of the lovefest!

Skating could be better. Better explosiveness and top line speed as well.

 

[BaseballCoach]

15% is unsustainable, theres no way around it. Its high. It doesnt mean a player cant hold that for 50 or 100 games, it means hes bound to regress. Its basic statistics. The very best shooters that arent volume shooters will generally run around with 14-15%. Slaf is a good shooter, hes not an elite one, his shooting % will probably normalize between 11 and 13.

His shooting percentage is actually 14.3%.

Last year, 40% of the players with 50 or more points shot at over 14%.

It's not at all unusual.

 

[417]

Didnt he score on a breakaway vs the Sens last year?

It was preseason I believe...how are you btw @Mrb1p

 

[Gravity]

Four players had 75 points last season. Hintz, Kaprizov, Ovechkin, Nelson. My personal points projection for him has been in flux in the past weeks. Maybe I’m too cautious, but I need more data.

18 players put up 75 or more points last year. It's totally possible for Slaf in his prime to meet/exceed that.

 

[Jaynki]

Skating could be better. Better explosiveness and top line speed as well.

Go see NHL Edge stats and tell me this again.

 

[Gravity]

Go see NHL Edge stats and tell me this again.

He's in the 79th percentile for top speed. Still room to improve. This is excluding explosiveness.

 

[Jaynki]

He's in the 79th percentile for top speed. Still room to improve. This is excluding explosiveness.

Well, ok