Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[JustAHabFan]

I think one of the biggest difference makers for him right now is that he's vastly improved the way he thinks the game. I've noticed that he's much more often got a plan B/escape plan. Plays that would die on his stick or in a board battle before, are now being extended because he's making these small touches into open space or to teammates, and he's becoming a dual threat in situations where he'd previously try forcing plays.

I also noticed that he also try to hang around in front of the net a lot more and used his strength to stay there.

 

[morhilane]

I think one of the biggest difference makers for him right now is that he's vastly improved the way he thinks the game. I've noticed that he's much more often got a plan B/escape plan. Plays that would die on his stick or in a board battle before, are now being extended because he's making these small touches into open space or to teammates, and he's becoming a dual threat in situations where he'd previously try forcing plays.

I said it back in early January, the game was still a bit too fast at time for Slaf back then and timing wasn't all there, but we could see he was starting to think ahead. He's just getting better and better at it now.

 

[Gillings]

Even when he was struggling you could see the passing ability. Again, his skill would show itself in flashes.

The fact that he’s put it all together so quickly is incredible. I mean, I was hopeful that he’d be a big 70 point guy but now I think he’ll be - a 60 point guy next year.

He might be a 60 point guy this year hahahaha

 

[JustAHabFan]

He might be a 60 point guy this year hahahaha

That is too optimistic. I will be very happy if he can get 50.

 

[Mrb1p]

Hes shooting 34% over the last 7 games, thats the main difference.

Unsustainable, yes. But it is so good for his confidence that it might have lasting effects, lucky streaks have the inverse effects of stretch of unlucky play.

 

[Jaynki]

Hes shooting 34% over the last 7 games, thats the main difference.

Unsustainable, yes. But it is so good for his confidence that it might have lasting effects, lucky streaks have the inverse effects of stretch of unlucky play.

He probably dont scores 8 goals in the next 12 but whatever his scoring percentage... 21 points in 28 games gives him 50 on the season..

Fair to say its a tangible possibility right now even if his shooting % correct.

 

[Mrb1p]

He probably dont scores 8 goals in the next 12 but whatever his scoring percentage... 21 points in 28 games gives him 50 on the season..

Fair to say its a tangible possibility right now even if his shooting % correct.

Wouldnt say too likely. Look at his overall pace and assume normalization, at least on goals. He is shootint ~15% over his season right now, even that is pretty high.

 

[Kennerback]

Hes shooting 34% over the last 7 games, thats the main difference.

Unsustainable, yes. But it is so good for his confidence that it might have lasting effects, lucky streaks have the inverse effects of stretch of unlucky play.

It is unsustainable. His progress is incredible but working on tweaking his shot is where he’ll progress even more.

On that 3 on 1, he was thinking pass all the way and he made it obvious that he was thinking pass. Passing is fine, but he’s still way too eager to give away the puck to Suzuki and CC.

By shooting progressively more, his dip in shooting percentage won’t cripple his production.

 

[Toene]

Re: bolded completely correct. To add, he finally has that halo effect of a spotlight seemingly following him everywhere across the ice. Star players have it. Slaf did not have it last year. Now he has it. It's incredible to see.

Habs fans should be happy and enjoying this streak. I've never seen a young player have a streak like this for the Habs. This sort of phenom has always been on another team. After so many bitter false starts (Kostitsyn, Galchenyuk, Drouin, and Kotkaniemi...) It's a nice feeling when one of our youngsters actually steps up and enjoys parabolic growth (cc: @Jaynki).

Back to hiatus. Ciao.

Wait, you dropped this

 

[BaseballCoach]

That is too optimistic. I will be very happy if he can get 50.

21 points in his last 23 games, now needs 21 points in his next 28 games. Hard, but not impossible.

 

[Tyson]

21 points in his last 23 games, now needs 21 points in his next 28 games. Hard, but not impossible.

20 G and 50 points would be an impressive sophomore season

 

[vlady]

Wouldnt say too likely. Look at his overall pace and assume normalization, at least on goals. He is shootint ~15% over his season right now, even that is pretty high.

15% is not that high. There are plenty of players in the league with higher. Even Suzuki has higher percentage than Slaf.

Slaf is not in the top 100 in this stat. I know there are a bunch of guys there with very few shots, but also a lot of proper good players. Shooting percentage is not something that is random. Some players tend to have it higher than others over a long period of time. I see no reason why Slaf can't maintain a 15% clip.

 

[Kennerback]

20 G and 50 points would be an impressive sophomore season

The model for the slow road to success for a 1OA big forward in the NHL @18 is Joe Thornton. Not to say that slower is impossible, it’s that following the Thornton model is a road we know worked in the past.

Second half of Year 2 is when Thornton really came into his own (just like Slaf) and he finished the season with the following stats:

81

16

25

41

i’ll be very happy if Slaf ends up in that ballpark.

 

[Andy]

Joe Thornton first two seasons:

55gp-3g-7pts
81gp-16g-41pts

Let's hope he call follow that path of Joe who used his big frame to create space to dish out sick passes.

 

[Kennerback]

Joe Thornton first two seasons:

55gp-3g-7pts
81gp-16g-41pts

Let's hope he call follow that path of Joe who used his big frame to create space to dish out sick passes.

Thornton went from completely lost on another planet in year 1 to starting to really look good at the end of year 2.

 

[Jaynki]

The model for the slow road to success for a 1OA big forward in the NHL @18 is Joe Thornton. Not to say that slower is impossible, it’s that following the Thornton model is a road we know worked in the past.

Second half of Year 2 is when Thornton really came into his own (just like Slaf) and he finished the season with the following stats:

81

16

25

41

i’ll be very happy if Slaf ends up in that ballpark.

Jack Hughes, Stutzle, Draisaitl, Rantanen.

Other example of player who took off in the 2nd half of their D+2, having 45-50 points season. Becoming 100 points player.

They were the basis of the argument this summer that we should not give too much weight to Slaf D+1 since it was all about the growth in the D+2. (Growth that was inexistant in Galch, Yakupov, KK and Laf case btw.)

 

[KevSkillz4]

We can certainly have believe that he is a 90 points type of player. This guy is such great at everything. Great hands. Great shot. Great passing ability. Great two-way game. Great protection of puck. That's not look like a only 60-65 pts type of player to me, he is much than that!

Star in the making!!

 

[LaP]

We can certainly have believe that he is a 90 points type of player. This guy is such great at everything. Great hands. Great shot. Great passing ability. Great two-way game. Great protection of puck. That's not look like a only 60-65 pts type of player to me, he is much than that!

Star in the making!!

I think his vision is his best asset tbh.

The pass he made to Suzuki on the PP against Anaheim was a pass most player would not have made even vets. Most player would have simply shot the puck and hope for a deflection or the puck finding a small hole. The speed at which he processed the game was above average. He made the pass as soon as he got the puck. If he waits half a second to make it the passing lane would have been covered.

 

[Mrb1p]

15% is not that high. There are plenty of players in the league with higher. Even Suzuki has higher percentage than Slaf.

Slaf is not in the top 100 in this stat. I know there are a bunch of guys there with very few shots, but also a lot of proper good players. Shooting percentage is not something that is random. Some players tend to have it higher than others over a long period of time. I see no reason why Slaf can't maintain a 15% clip.

Thats why Im saying is actual over the season is more likely to remain. 15% is high, theres no way around it. Theres 18 players with over 500 games played since 04-05 that have a shooting % above this.

Between 8 and 14 is the range in which you could say "okay hes not impacted by luck, or at very least not in a major way."


But thats beyond the point, like I said, his actual season pace is much more of a sustainable metric than his last ~10 games. Even if the shooting % is a bit on the high end, the playmaking, confidence and overall play quality he gained should more than cover for luck, up to about a 45-50 points season.

 

[Cournoyer12]

View attachment 819749

Keep scoring those sexy goals Slaf!!!!!

 

[417]

Today we're talking about 90pt potential, what his contract extension will look like, locking him up!, etc,.

The Slafkovsky thread used to be a cesspool of negativity, Habs fans all at each other’s throats.

A few months later, who would thought we’d be here?

 

[LaP]

Thats why Im saying is actual over the season is more likely to remain. 15% is high, theres no way around it. Theres 18 players with over 500 games played since 04-05 that have a shooting % above this.

Between 8 and 14 is the range in which you could say "okay hes not impacted by luck, or at very least not in a major way."


But thats beyond the point, like I said, his actual season pace is much more of a sustainable metric than his last ~10 games. Even if the shooting % is a bit on the high end, the playmaking, confidence and overall play quality he gained should more than cover for luck, up to about a 45-50 points season.

15% is not too far off. Going from 15 to a more normal 12-13 would not impact his play much. We are far from the 23% Byron had during his 22 goals season.

 

[OldCraig71]

It is unsustainable. His progress is incredible but working on tweaking his shot is where he’ll progress even more.

On that 3 on 1, he was thinking pass all the way and he made it obvious that he was thinking pass. Passing is fine, but he’s still way too eager to give away the puck to Suzuki and CC.

By shooting progressively more, his dip in shooting percentage won’t cripple his production.

I commented on this last night. He was in a prime shooting position and probably would have scored there because Quick was looking slow last night.

 

[BaseballCoach]

15% is not that high. There are plenty of players in the league with higher. Even Suzuki has higher percentage than Slaf.

Slaf is not in the top 100 in this stat. I know there are a bunch of guys there with very few shots, but also a lot of proper good players. Shooting percentage is not something that is random. Some players tend to have it higher than others over a long period of time. I see no reason why Slaf can't maintain a 15% clip.

If most of the shots are high danger, 15% is often attainable. Both Suzuki and Slaf rarely take long useless shots, they would pass instead (unlike a Gallagher who has a terrible shooting percentage).

 

[le_sean]

It is unsustainable. His progress is incredible but working on tweaking his shot is where he’ll progress even more.

On that 3 on 1, he was thinking pass all the way and he made it obvious that he was thinking pass. Passing is fine, but he’s still way too eager to give away the puck to Suzuki and CC.

By shooting progressively more, his dip in shooting percentage won’t cripple his production.

He made the right play on the 3 on 1. He can’t pass it to the guy behind him and you need to make the goalie move post to post in that situation. It was just a nice defensive play that broke it up.