Prospect Info: The Second Overall Pick Thread: Part IV (Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Let's have a little fun here.

The fact that Panarin is a LW is huge plus for the lineup, if they can land him. Let's say they do. The mock lineups up front are pretty freakin' good.

Drafting either Kakko or Hughes will force a few guys to play out of position or be sent out, but that's a GREAT problem to have and something we saw coming anyway. One could say that Hughes fits in better with what we have going forward since we have a logjam at C&RW. They are stronger down the middle unless Chytil goes ape on us.

Guys like Andersson, Vesey, Namesnikov and Nieves may ultimately have their fates with the Rangers determined by the Devils. Though I think Andersson has a much longer leash.

I'm leaving Vesey on the bench for arguments sake and I'm leaving Kreider a Ranger, namely because he's a LW and he's Kreider. I wouldnt be against moving him for the right package but then we kinda lose sight of things here.

W/ Hughes & Panarin

Kreider Zibanejad Buchnevich
Panarin Hughes Chytil
Lemieux Strome Kravstov
Andersson Howden Fast

Vesey (?)
Nieves
Namesnikov (traded)

W/ Kakko & Panarin

Kreider Zibanejad Buchnevich
Panarin Chytil Kakko
Lemieux Strome Kravstov
Andersson Howden Fast

Vesey (?)
Nieves
Namesnikov (traded)

One good thing is you have Andersson and Chytil who can both play center if injuries occur or if Hughes is AHL bound to start.
You can mix and match the bottom two lines however you'd like. Feel free to rip this apart.

Inserting either of these kids into the lineup makes the top two lines so much more dangerous. And waiting in the weeds is Kravstov getting 3rd line minutes against 2nd & 3rd pairings...

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I thought the consensus was that Chityl is better at center. Like much better?

I don’t think there’s a consensus here, but Chytil has said he likes playing center more

 

[JT Kreider]

Let's have a little fun here.

The fact that Panarin is a LW is huge plus for the lineup, if they can land him. Let's say they do. The mock lineups up front are pretty freakin' good.

Drafting either Kakko or Hughes will force a few guys to play out of position or be sent out, but that's a GREAT problem to have and something we saw coming anyway. One could say that Hughes fits in better with what we have going forward since we have a logjam at C&RW. They are stronger down the middle unless Chytil goes ape on us.

Guys like Andersson, Vesey, Namesnikov and Nieves may ultimately have their fates with the Rangers determined by the Devils. Though I think Andersson has a much longer leash.

I'm leaving Vesey on the bench for arguments sake and I'm leaving Kreider a Ranger, namely because he's a LW and he's Kreider. I wouldnt be against moving him for the right package but then we kinda lose sight of things here.

W/ Hughes & Panarin

Kreider Zibanejad Buchnevich
Panarin Hughes Chytil
Lemieux Strome Kravstov
Andersson Howden Fast

Vesey (?)
Nieves
Namesnikov (traded)

W/ Kakko & Panarin

Kreider Zibanejad Buchnevich
Panarin Chytil Kakko
Lemieux Strome Kravstov
Andersson Howden Fast

Vesey (?)
Nieves
Namesnikov (traded)

One good thing is you have Andersson and Chytil who can both play center if injuries occur or if Hughes is AHL bound to start.
You can mix and match the bottom two lines however you'd like. Feel free to rip this apart.

Inserting either of these kids into the lineup makes the top two lines so much more dangerous. And waiting in the weeds is Kravstov getting 3rd line minutes against 2 &3 pairings...

Looks good in principle. Not so sure if Kreider is a Ranger much longer. His value only stands to drop from here on out so hopefully he is moved at the draft unless Gorton actually envisions this team being in the playoff mix so he would be used as an "internal rental".

 

[GameChanger]

If you’re thinking about Matthews playing overseas in his draft season, it’s only because Matthews essentially missed the 2015 draft by a few days, so he was older than most of the players in his draft class (if not the oldest). Matthews’ birthday also was in a really small window that would allow him to play overseas which is why he’s the only player I can think of that did that. As for Hughes, he probably could’ve crunched his school work and been able to play in the NCAA this year, but everything I’ve read and heard about him was he recognized how special this US crop was and really wanted to set the scoring record and stay with everyone to play all these tournaments.

And as for why Caufield isn’t higher, it’s because he projects to be a great complimentary player, but not necessarily a guy who can carry a line or a team’s offense.

That explains a lot, thank you! I didn't know about the window to play overseas, that's interesting.

Yeah it's difficult to compare players with different birthdays. Still it's fair to say Matthews would probably have the highest points in the list if he'd decided to stay in NA for the final year too. Obviously his choice worked well for him and I'm sure he doesn't mind missing the potential record.

I haven't seen Caufield enough to say much myself, but your explanation makes sense. Another player with a bit similar (though somewhat less in every regard) stats with Hughes is Clayton Keller. It'll be interesting to see how he'll be doing next season.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I’d be into trading Kreider only if we land Panarin .

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I’d be into trading Kreider only if we land Panarin .

That's what makes trading him at the Draft tough because if you flip him and don't get Panarin you are weak on the left. Then you prob need to extend Vesey. But maybe the Rangers know something?

Hell, if you sign Panarin - and add one of Hughes or Kakko & Kravstov up front you'll most certainly be a better team. Might as well use Kreider as your own "rental" and see what happens...

I can see a case made for both scenarios.

 

[NYR Viper]

That's what makes trading him at the Draft tough because if you flip him and don't get Panarin you are weak on the left. Then you prob need to resign Vesey. But maybe the Rangers know something?

Hell, if you sign Panarin - and add one of Hughes or Kakko & Kravstov up front you'll most certainly be a better team. Might as well use Kreider as your own "rental" and see what happens...

I can see a case made for both scenarios.

The correct long term plan is to trade Kreider. If they can get Panarin at a reasonable term and cap hit, great. That doesn't change the fact that the correct decision is to not sign Kreider long-term at this time. The team may be worse this upcoming year by trading him, but long-term it should create more flexibility

 

[Ghost of jas]

I thought the consensus was that Chityl is better at center. Like much better?

Not from what I’ve seen.

 

[Gardner McKay]

My god, another wonderful highlight reel goal

Not trying to sound like a broken record...

I get the idea that one tournament doesn't change things but are we really sure this tournament isn't enough to make the Devils reconsider? Hell (no pun intended), I think even Devils fans are on the Kakko bandwagon now.

Kakko is now t-6th in points, t-1st in goals - all against the same/similar level of competition he will be facing in the NHL next year.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Teams do not ditch hundreds upon hundreds of hours of scouting, data, travel, etc. based on recency bias.

THIS is exactly the dangerous situation that social media has created. It creates false narratives shrouded in just enough of people's doubt to be deemed an emerging issue.

I get this. I think it is a good point. The question I would ask, what caused Kotkaniemi to vault up the rankings last year? Was part of it due to his WJC performance?

And FWIW, I am genuinely asking. I openly admit that prospect knowledge is not remotely closet to what it once was.

 

[Polar Bear]

Not trying to sound like a broken record...

I get the idea that one tournament doesn't change things but are we really sure this tournament isn't enough to make the Devils reconsider? Hell (no pun intended), I think even Devils fans are on the Kakko bandwagon now.

Kakko is now t-6th in points, t-1st in goals - all against the same/similar level of competition he will be facing in the NHL next year.

Once again, and I think someone mentioned this many times before, Kakko has absolutely done enough to go 1st, but I don't think Hughes has done nearly enough to not go 1st.

 

[Inferno]

people seriously need to stop acting like if we got hughes it would be some horrible outcome. its beyond laughable. we spent the entire year *****ing about loser points because every point potentially hurt our odds to win the lottery and a shot at JACK HUGHES...#loses4hughes all year and then you see kakko for 4 games and suddenly getting hughes would be bad?

don't get me wrong. kakko looks amazing and if you prefer him thats fine. but lets not act like hughes wouldn't be the best forward we've ever drafted as well.

Can a mod please pin this post?

 

[Edge]

I get this. I think it is a good point. The question I would ask, what caused Kotkaniemi to vault up the rankings last year? Was part of it due to his WJC performance?

A few factors to consider:

Kotkaniemi was a guy who steadily climbed throughout the year. It was the WJC that these boards started talking about him. And that's a key understanding. I don't think we fully take into account the differences between how HFBoards view things and how teams do. HF is kind of an entity onto itself.

He wasn't a consensus pick like a Hughes or Kakko has been to this point. So it's not a scenario where 1o out of 10 scouts had him at 3, or every scouting service had him at 3.

Speaking to the above point, in those scenarios it only takes one team having him third to change the converstion. In the case of Kakko and Hughes we're consistently hearing them listed in the same spots. So there's no dissenting opinion that's been evident.

Generally speaking, things like the WJC and tournaments can impact players when they're in a cluster. So, for example, I think the impact of certain tournaments could impact groups like Turcotte, Cozens,Dach, Zegras and Newhook, but I don't know if I see it impacting something like the top two picks. Especially when you consider that Hughes himself is coming off an impressive showing.

And that's probably the big difference between picking first or second, as compared to picking third - with this draft being a prime example. The 1-2 slots have been consistent. But there's probably 3-5 guys who very well could find themselves going third.

 

[McRanger]

Not trying to sound like a broken record...

I get the idea that one tournament doesn't change things but are we really sure this tournament isn't enough to make the Devils reconsider? Hell (no pun intended), I think even Devils fans are on the Kakko bandwagon now.

Kakko is now t-6th in points, t-1st in goals - all against the same/similar level of competition he will be facing in the NHL next year.

The think the idea that this year WC won't change anything (or much) this year between Hughes and Kakko is correct, mainly because Hughes himself just had a ridiculous U18 and is just all around awesome.

But repeated line that that small sample (yet popular and widely viewed) international tournaments do not have an serious effect on draft rankings is nonsense. Every year people jump or drop in rankings due to these tournaments, especially the WJC. Its not a matter of throwing out all the other data, its a matter of adding to it and updating it.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Can a mod please pin this post?

Only if you say please.

I don't think anyone here would be genuinely upset about getting Hughes. That would be laughable. Being disappointed about not getting Kakko isn't the same as being upset that we are getting Hughes and I think we are only in a position like that because we have spent the last month honed in on Kakko.

You know what I mean? Imagine you're looking for a car and you find one you really like in a good color. You arrive at the dealership and find out it was sold. They have the same car, with a few more additional bells and whistles but in a color you aren't so fond of. Are you upset about getting a better product? No. Are you a little disappointed you didn't get the one you really wanted? Sure.

 

[Gardner McKay]

A few factors to consider:

Kotkaniemi was a guy who steadily climbed throughout the year. It was the WJC that these boards started talking about him. And that's a key understanding. I don't think we fully take into account the differences between how HFBoards view things and how teams do. HF is kind of an entity onto itself.

He wasn't a consensus pick like a Hughes or Kakko has been to this point. So it's not a scenario where 1o out of 10 scouts had him at 3, or every scouting service had him at 3.

Speaking to the above point, in those scenarios it only takes one team having him third to change the converstion. In the case of Kakko and Hughes we're consistently hearing them listed in the same spots. So there's no dissenting opinion that's been evident.

Generally speaking, things like the WJC and tournaments can impact players when they're in a cluster. So, for example, I think the impact of certain tournaments could impact groups like Turcotte, Cozens,Dach, Zegras and Newhook, but I don't know if I see it impacting something like the top two picks. Especially when you consider that Hughes himself is coming off an impressive showing.

And that's probably the big difference between picking first or second, as compared to picking third - with this draft being a prime example. The 1-2 slots have been consistent. But there's probably 3-5 guys who very well could find themselves going third.

As usual, you make some great points. Thank you @Edge

 

[Inferno]

If you want the rangers to sign panarin...you couldn't have a better result than jack Hughes falling to 2.

I want Hughes for sure...will be thrilled with kakko tho.

 

[Inferno]

Only if you say please.

I don't think anyone here would be genuinely upset about getting Hughes. That would be laughable. Being disappointed about not getting Kakko isn't the same as being upset that we are getting Hughes and I think we are only in a position like that because we have spent the last month honed in on Kakko.

You know what I mean? Imagine you're looking for a car and you find one you really like in a good color. You arrive at the dealership and find out it was sold. They have the same car, with a few more additional bells and whistles but in a color you aren't so fond of. Are you upset about getting a better product? No. Are you a little disappointed you didn't get the one you really wanted? Sure.

But see that's now what's happening here.... It would be more like.

You spent all year fixated on 1 car. You saved up your money and just when you finally have enough for it....the last one gets sold and you're like..well crap...I've got this money...here's a really good alternative I'll just get that one.

And then you get to the dealer and you find out the original car is back in stock.

Why would you be upset at that?

Jack Hughes would be a franchise altering player in the premier position that teams look for.

No offense to kakko but how often do you hear of teams looking for a premier winger vs looking for a premier center?

Why did Hayes get what he got and zuuc get what he got? Wingers aren't as valuable as centers. Love kakko...he'd be a franchise altering piece as well...but the devil's would be flat out idiots to pass on him.based on 1 tournament

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

But see that's now what's happening here.... It would be more like.

You spent all year fixated on 1 car. You saved up your money and just when you finally have enough for it....the last one gets sold and you're like..well crap...I've got this money...here's a really good alternative I'll just get that one.

And then you get to the dealer and you find out the original car is back in stock.

Why would you be upset at that?

Jack Hughes would be a franchise altering player in the premier position that teams look for.

No offense to kakko but how often do you hear of teams looking for a premier winger vs looking for a premier center?

Why did Hayes get what he got and zuuc get what he got? Wingers aren't as valuable as centers. Love kakko...he'd be a franchise altering piece as well...but the devil's would be flat out idiots to pass on him.based on 1 tournament

Younger and didn't play like complete ass for most of the season leading up to the TDL.

 

[Inferno]

You have the choice....Mario lemieux or jaromir jagr?

Who takes jagr?

Everyone would take lemieucx. That's why I take Hughes.

 

[Inferno]

Younger and didn't play like complete ass for most of the season leading up to the TDL.

Zucc was carrying the team leading up to the deadline and didn't Hayes go quiet heading into it?

 

[Edge]

As usual, you make some great points. Thank you @Edge

Both guys are awesome, simply awesome. The truth is you can’t go wrong with either. So in the off chance the Devils take Kakko, the Rangers still win - BIG TIME.

While I will say the odds of the Devils taking Kakko is less than 10 percent, I also think Kakko has probably given them at least some feelings of doubt in their stomach. I also think he and Hughes are only adding to the disappointment experienced by LA and Colorado.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Zucc was carrying the team leading up to the deadline and didn't Hayes go quiet heading into it?

Hayes had 7 in 10 leading up to the TDL, that isn't really going quietly, more or less in line with what he is.

Zucc was pouty, Injured or MIA until the middle of January. Either way, its the entire body of work that really matters here. Hayes was pretty consistent throughout his last 2 seasons here, Zucc was the very definition of up and down. We're lucky he built up his trade value to what it ended up being.

 

[Inferno]

Both guys are awesome, simply awesome. The truth is you can’t go wrong with either. So in the off chance the Devils take Kakko, the Rangers still win - BIG TIME.

While I will say the odds of the Devils taking Kakko is less than 10 percent, I also think Kakko has probably given them at least some feelings of doubt in their stomach. I also think he and Hughes are only adding to the disappointment experienced by LA and Colorado.

Agreed. It's a lot closer than I thought it would be, but it's still Hughes imho

 

[Uncle Dru]

They're taking Hughes, I truly believe they already decided this

It's a beautiful position to be in, we draft a player who is proving to be flat out dominant or if by some chance they shift to Special K, we draft a Franchise Center with all-world talent