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Prospect Info: The Second Overall Pick Thread: Part III (Kakko/Hughes Talk)

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Edge said:
We always talked about what would happen if we could find that ability with a handful of elite young homegrown talent.

Well, we’re getting closer to finding out.
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I feel like I already see a deep bench emerging.

Lemieux Howden Strome Lias Fast (if he’s kept as a veteran presence) already make up a VERY solid bottom 6 I don’t think that’s ever been an issue for us finding and developing that kind of talent. We’ll have more coming. Barron and our likely 2nd first rounder this year are going to add to that depth. May have 2 first rounders next year at this rate as well.

Now the exciting part is the top 6 where we always struggle to find elite talent. But Mika Kravtsov Kakko Chytil and an emerging Buchnevich really change things. Do we keep Kreider? Sign Panarin? Either of those guys are legit top line guys.

I don’t see much reason to add short term ufas this summer. I think we’ve got plenty of depth already. Young but definitely nhlers.
 
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Kovalev27 said:
I feel like I already see a deep bench emerging.

Lemieux Howden Strome Lias Fast (if he’s kept as a veteran presence) already make up a VERY solid bottom 6 I don’t think that’s ever been an issue for us finding and developing that kind of talent. We’ll have more coming. Barron and our likely 2nd first rounder this year are going to add to that depth. May have 2 first rounders next year at this rate as well.

Now the exciting part is the top 6 where we always struggle to find elite talent. But Mika Kravtsov Kakko Chytil and an emerging Buchnevich really change things. Do we keep Kreider? Sign Panarin? Either of those guys are legit top line guys.

I don’t see much reason to add short term ufas this summer. I think we’ve got plenty of depth already. Young but definitely nhlers.
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The only UFAs I woud be interested in short-term are guys like Strålman to take away some of the tougher minutes from our young kids on defense. Other than that, I agree. We have no need for short-term acquisitions
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
The only UFAs I woud be interested in short-term are guys like Strålman to take away some of the tougher minutes from our young kids on defense. Other than that, I agree. We have no need for short-term acquisitions
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The only UFAs I'd be interested in are those willing to take a 1 year contract. That way you can flip them for an asset come TDL.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
You say "low", I think it's realistic.

It's in line with Kotkaniemi and Barkov in their rookie season as an 18-year old.
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Ehh, I think 35-40 would be pretty underwhelming. Comparing their situations, first with Barkov: he pretty much only concentrated for his overall 2-way play in his first couple of seasons. He was given pretty heavy defensive duties from the get go as a center and the point totals were lower in that time too. He was a late year born for his draft class (scored his first NHL goal a month after turning 18), there is over a half a year age difference between him and Kakko. And about Kotkaniemi; he was never seen as the same caliber of a prospect to begin with. At times in the FEL in his draft season he honestly struggled, very much contrary to Kakko. Kudos to him for making it to the NHL in his first season, but for a lot of people it was a big surprise (especially since he was deemed as a longer term project).
 
Kovalev27 said:
I feel like I already see a deep bench emerging.

Lemieux Howden Strome Lias Fast (if he’s kept as a veteran presence) already make up a VERY solid bottom 6 I don’t think that’s ever been an issue for us finding and developing that kind of talent. We’ll have more coming. Barron and our likely 2nd first rounder this year are going to add to that depth. May have 2 first rounders next year at this rate as well.

Now the exciting part is the top 6 where we always struggle to find elite talent. But Mika Kravtsov Kakko Chytil and an emerging Buchnevich really change things. Do we keep Kreider? Sign Panarin? Either of those guys are legit top line guys.

I don’t see much reason to add short term ufas this summer. I think we’ve got plenty of depth already. Young but definitely nhlers.
Click to expand...

I think if the Rangers end up moving Kreider, and/or are aggressive at the draft, I think Panarin becomes more likely on multiple fronts.

Some of that's from a chunk of Kreider's money and years going toward Panarin, some of that is from them feeling that they're going to get faster returns on this draft class, some of it is from selling Panarin on the fact their vision involving high-end young talent, high-end veteran talent, a plethora of depth from which to draw, and that the Rangers will pursue additional talent as it becomes available.
 
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Kakko is on totally different tier offensively compared to Kotkaniemi. Barkov played with legit AHLers Brad Boyes and Sean Bergenheim in his rookie season. He was really raw skater and focused on playing great two-way game instead of offense. Kakko in the other hand is much more confidence offensively. I would say 35-40 points with little to no PP time is his 3rd line production next year. If he play top 6 he can potentially put up +50 points. If Laine scored 64 points i don’t see why Kakko could not go for 55+. Predicting points is total crapshoot but i would say he is ready to deliver if he is put into that position to help team offensively. He is that good already.
 
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I'd rather they just kept Kreider without an extension if trading him leads to a Panarin or similar signing.
 
Off Sides said:
I'd rather they just kept Kreider without an extension if trading him leads to a Panarin or similar signing.
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That would be terrible asset management. You have a guy on a reasonable contract with one year left during a rebuild/transition year. Why would you want to keep him for a non-contending season if you aren't planning on re-signing him? He has good value...letting him go for nothing is foolish.
 
Looking at history for some context concerning forwards who played a full season just after their draft year:

In 2018, Svechnikov posted 37, Kotkaniemi 34 and Tkachuk 45.

In 2017, Hischier posted 52, Patrick 32

In 2016, Matthews posted 69, Laine 64, Tkachuk 48

In 2015, MacDavid posted 48 in 45, Eichel 56

In 2013, MacKinnon posted 63, Barkov 24, Monahan 34, Lindholm 21

In 2012 short season, Yakpov posted 31, Galchenyuk 27 in 48 (so roughly 53 and 46 respectively over a full season)

In 2011, Hopkins posted 52 in 62, Landeskog 52

In 2010, Hall posted 42 in 65, Seguin 22 in 74

In 2009, Tavares posted 54, Duchene 55, Kane 26 in 66

So without getting too far into math and other circumstances, because I am running out the door, the ballpark is roughly 47 points over a full, healthy season.

So admittedly, 35-40 would probably be on the lower end and a bit underwhelming and scoring 60+ is the higher end.

A range 40-50 seems to split the difference (which I didn't realize when I first posted my prediction).
 
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broadwayblue said:
That would be terrible asset management. You have a guy on a reasonable contract with one year left during a rebuild/transition year. Why would you want to keep him for a non-contending season if you aren't planning on re-signing him?
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I did not say not to trade him.

I said if by trading him it leads to them signing Panarin I'd rather see them just keep him.

He can be sold next deadline if not sooner, if it has to be one or the other for this season.
 
Off Sides said:
I did not say not to trade him.

I said if by trading him it leads to them signing Panarin I'd rather see them just keep him.

He can be sold next deadline if not sooner, if it has to be one or the other for this season.
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Gotcha. If we can get a good package for CK I'd deal him now. Then go after Panarin. If we don't get him that's fine, we'll have plenty of extra cap space for next summer.
 
broadwayblue said:
Gotcha. If we can get a good package for CK I'd deal him now. Then go after Panarin. If we don't get him that's fine, we'll have plenty of extra cap space for next summer.
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Fair enough, I'm more on the trade Kreider and don't sign Panarin train.

Yet if it has to be one or the other, I'd rather see them keep Kreider as a pending UFA and sell him next deadline/near deadline even if that means them moving up this draft, or getting another pick outright, does not happen.
 
True Blue said:
You are setting yourself up for a lot of disappointment. We all want to shoot for the moon, but history dictates that the numbers that AK is giving in much more realistic.
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I haven't said anything about "shooting for the moon", but you simply can't convince me otherwise that him scoring 35p in the next season wouldn't be underwhelming. He is several tiers ahead of Kotkaniemi as a prospect who had that kind of production playing a harder position (assuming Kakko is going to play as a winger).
 
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