The Saint Mikael Granlund hypetrain part 2 (saucer passes turning to wine!)

[Erikfromfin]

We finns are not nation of utter failures
by procentage atleast 1 of these youngsters will become nhl elite
who will it be or when will it will be is another question. i refuse to believe all our top talent wont make it for reason or another

Vatanen, Mi.Granlund, Ristolainen, Määttä, Aittokallio, Armia, Barkov, Teräväinen, Korpisalo, K.Kapanen

 

[end2endrush]

We finns are not nation of utter failures
by procentage atleast 1 of these youngsters will become nhl elite
who will it be or when will it will be is another question. i refuse to believe all our top talent wont make it for reason or another

Vatanen, Mi.Granlund, Ristolainen, Määttä, Aittokallio, Armia, Barkov, Teräväinen, Korpisalo, K.Kapanen

I think Barkov is the only one with the potential to become elite. Elite is a pretty broad term, do you mean top 10 player in league, or top 3 player on team? Because other than Barkov I don't see any of them being real elite players. Teravainen and Vatanen have the potential to be top line players though. Ristolainen a top pair D

 

[Syan Ruter]

The thing is, people assume that a 20-year-old-recently-moved-to-the-states-Finn is automatically a bust because of, A) His rookie season wasn't a success & B) "Come on...he's 20-years-old and hasn't won any trophies, no? Bust."

Give him at least two more years before you label him a bust.

 

[Gaps]

The thing is, people assume that a 20-year-old-recently-moved-to-the-states-Finn is automatically a bust because of, A) His rookie season wasn't a success & B) "Come on...he's 20-years-old and hasn't won any trophies, no? Bust."

Give him at least two more years before you label him a bust.

Exactly. He's not the first prospect to struggle during his first season in the NHL. I find it ridiculous that some people are already labeling him a bust, based on his nationality or whatever. You're talking about a kid who managed to be PPG in the AHL while getting accustomed to the smaller rink and the North American style of play. That doesn't exactly scream "OBVIOUS BUST" at me. Let's wait and see.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

We finns are not nation of utter failures
by procentage atleast 1 of these youngsters will become nhl elite
who will it be or when will it will be is another question. i refuse to believe all our top talent wont make it for reason or another

Vatanen, Mi.Granlund, Ristolainen, Määttä, Aittokallio, Armia, Barkov, Teräväinen, Korpisalo, K.Kapanen

Finland has produced some useful players, goalies in particular.

Elite talent is a Toews, Crosby, Stamkos, Maikin, Ovie, Kane, Chara, Karlsson, Datsyuk, Doughty.

Someone that is near or at the top of their particular position or game.

For whatever reason Finland has struggled to have a player as one of the best in the game play in the NHL. Selanne is the closest, he's a pretty special player. Even when he scored 76 goals, it was hard to identify him as the best scorer in the NHL.

Mogilny, Lemieux, Lafontaine, Gilmour, Oates, Yzerman were all putting up ungodly points that season.

Will Finland produce the best player in the game one day? Russia, Czechs(before break up), Canada, Sweden, USA, may have already. Maybe just a matter of time, but we still wait.

 

[Jtabo]

Not saying he is a bust, not saying he isn't, but Stamkos was labelled a disappointment after his rookie season.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

Not saying he is a bust, not saying he isn't, but Stamkos was labelled a disappointment after his rookie season.

Stamkos was 18, not 21.

Not saying Granny will be a bust, but it's a major difference

 

[janecky]

For all his hype, from my limited viewings he left me totally underwhelmed.

That is to be expected because his game is about superior hockey sense. When he's not fully ready to perform at the NHL level, he's not going to whelm your senses. He was always going to have a tough task to live up to expectations instantly because he's quite small and doesn't have great wheels. On bigger ice he had more space to work his magic. He'll figure it out. Players with his hockey sense, skill, and work ethic don't bust unless they're destroyed by injuries.

 

[Censored23]

The thing is, people assume that a 20-year-old-recently-moved-to-the-states-Finn is automatically a bust because of, A) His rookie season wasn't a success & B) "Come on...he's 20-years-old and hasn't won any trophies, no? Bust."

Give him at least two more years before you label him a bust.

Well, then quit proclaiming every Finnish prospect is gonna be the next NHL God before he has even done one single thing in his career.

 

[Billy Mays Here*]

Kadri wasn't a stud right out of the gate either. It took him a couple years of development to get the hang of it, and now he's flourishing. I'm not putting down Kadri in any way, on the contrary, I just like using using him as an example of why you shouldn't give up on a prospect so soon. The Leafs didn't, and I don't think they're regretting the decision to be patient with him now are they?

 

[Hagged]

For whatever reason Finland has struggled to have a player as one of the best in the game play in the NHL. Selanne is the closest, he's a pretty special player. Even when he scored 76 goals, it was hard to identify him as the best scorer in the NHL.

Will Finland produce the best player in the game one day? Russia, Czechs(before break up), Canada, Sweden, USA, may have already. Maybe just a matter of time, but we still wait.

So wait. Because FEL only has produced Kurri and Selanne level of forwards, drafting the prospect (that at age 17 broke all U20 records of the league while playing the league best two-way game when 10% of the players were lock-out players from NHL) at 2nd OA was a mistake. So big of mistake that it not only will haunt Tallon and the Panthers but Finnish icehockey in the future in that no Finnish prospect will be taken seriously.

Because Finland is a country of 5 million (and it's hockey federation is run by idiots or at least made the wrong developmental choices for one decade in the past) it's less likely for Finland to produce A) a Gretzky, the best player ever B) a Crosby, generational talent C) a Toews/Thornton, top 10 talent D)an NHL player in general, than Canada, for instance. When you look at this, every NHL season to this date has had
100% of D's,
1,4% of C's,
~0,1% of B's
~0,01% of A's

So now, NHL on average has 3% of Finnish players (20). 1,4% of them should be C's, 0.014*20=0.28, about 0.1 % should be B's, 0.001*20=0.02. And about 0.0001 should be A's, that's 0.002 individuals. Now, you could try to model the players talent on some kind of statistical model, I suggest you try to model NHL talent as the far tail end of a Gaussian, it won't look pretty since it says there should be mostly bad players and less and less the more talented ones, which obviously isn't true since bad players end up getting the boot. But for these tiers I believe it will show quickly that at 20 year time frame Finland has a high propability of having between 0 and 2 of C's (top 10 players), between 0 and 0.2 B's (generational talent) and propability around 0 of having one A, the best player in the game.

------------------------

Now, I'm not saying you should complete the model and see how Finland has faired as opposed to how it should have faired (the time frame is too small anyway for the numbers to fit to any model accurately). But I'm saying that now consider a Finnish prospect, way above any other finnish prospect. Would you think he has 0 propability of becoming anything? Being the best Finnish prospect ever has around the same value as being the best Canadian prospect in 5 years. But that Finnish prospect could still become better than the best Canadian prospect ever. It's just less likely to happen.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

So wait. Because FEL only has produced Kurri and Selanne level of forwards, drafting the prospect (that at age 17 broke all U20 records of the league while playing the league best two-way game when 10% of the players were lock-out players from NHL) at 2nd OA was a mistake. So big of mistake that it not only will haunt Tallon and the Panthers but Finnish icehockey in the future in that no Finnish prospect will be taken seriously.

Because Finland is a country of 5 million (and it's hockey federation is run by idiots or at least made the wrong developmental choices for one decade in the past) it's less likely for Finland to produce A) a Gretzky, the best player ever B) a Crosby, generational talent C) a Toews/Thornton, top 10 talent D)an NHL player in general, than Canada, for instance. When you look at this, every NHL season to this date has had
100% of D's,
1,4% of C's,
~0,1% of B's
~0,01% of A's

So now, NHL on average has 3% of Finnish players (20). 1,4% of them should be C's, 0.014*20=0.28, about 0.1 % should be B's, 0.001*20=0.02. And about 0.0001 should be A's, that's 0.002 individuals. Now, you could try to model the players talent on some kind of statistical model, I suggest you try to model NHL talent as the far tail end of a Gaussian, it won't look pretty since it says there should be mostly bad players and less and less the more talented ones, which obviously isn't true since bad players end up getting the boot. But for these tiers I believe it will show quickly that at 20 year time frame Finland has a high propability of having between 0 and 2 of C's (top 10 players), between 0 and 0.2 B's (generational talent) and propability around 0 of having one A, the best player in the game.

------------------------

Now, I'm not saying you should complete the model and see how Finland has faired as opposed to how it should have faired (the time frame is too small anyway for the numbers to fit to any model accurately). But I'm saying that now consider a Finnish prospect, way above any other finnish prospect. Would you think he has 0 propability of becoming anything? Being the best Finnish prospect ever has around the same value as being the best Canadian prospect in 5 years. But that Finnish prospect could still become better than the best Canadian prospect ever. It's just less likely to happen.

Kurri was a very good player, but I am not sure he belongs to be mentioned with Selanne.

This may not be fair, but he played with the 1 or 2 greatest players in Hockey. Gretzky.

Blair Mcdonald scored 46 goals in Gretzky's first NHL season. In the end I do think Kurri is the second greatest Finn, but hard to say just how great he was when he was playing with one of the greatest players of all time.

 

[Bookman]

We finns are not nation of utter failures
by procentage atleast 1 of these youngsters will become nhl elite
who will it be or when will it will be is another question. i refuse to believe all our top talent wont make it for reason or another

Vatanen, Mi.Granlund, Ristolainen, Määttä, Aittokallio, Armia, Barkov, Teräväinen, Korpisalo, K.Kapanen

This is the guy I was hoping the Wild would somehow land over a year ago.

Buffalo has some good young Finns.

 

[Hagged]

Kurri was a very good player, but I am not sure he belongs to be mentioned with Selanne.

This may not be fair, but he played with the 1 or 2 greatest players in Hockey. Gretzky.

Blair Mcdonald scored 46 goals in Gretzky's first NHL season. In the end I do think Kurri is the second greatest Finn, but hard to say just how great he was when he was playing with one of the greatest players of all time.

Well I'm sure he wouldn't have those 70 goal seasons without Gretzky but he actually had a bit better point production with 102 points in 88-89 without Gretzky than those 96 points in 87-88 (the last season Gretzky was in Edmonton).

I think if you manage a hundred points without Gretzky and another 93 point season and a stanley cup after your prime, you can be considered a great player.

 

[Syan Ruter]

Well, then quit proclaiming every Finnish prospect is gonna be the next NHL God before he has even done one single thing in his career.

What the flying **** are you talking about? Obviously, you're gonna praise a player who, by scoring that lacrosse goal and was arguably the best player at one point in the top-tier Finnish elite league, established him self as one of the top prospects OUTSIDE of North America. Now, key word being PROSPECT. The people who hyped him to the moon we're generally inexperienced-wannabee scouts who thought he was the **** and didn't expect any set-backs in his hockey career whatsoever.

Stop for a second and take a look at one of your PROSPECTS, someone who gets compared to Granlund a lot (even though I don't think they're even remotely comparable.) Kadri. He was hyped to the moon by Leaf-fans post-draft, and maintained that love before he came "out-of-shape" to camp and what not. He was on his third season before he broke through and regained his love from the Leaf Nation. Granny just finished his first season. I rest my case.

 

[Syan Ruter]

Exactly. He's not the first prospect to struggle during his first season in the NHL. I find it ridiculous that some people are already labeling him a bust, based on his nationality or whatever. You're talking about a kid who managed to be PPG in the AHL while getting accustomed to the smaller rink and the North American style of play. That doesn't exactly scream "OBVIOUS BUST" at me. Let's wait and see.

Precisely. He played extremely well in the AHL, but with the lockout and no camp before the season, he ultimately fell short. I am also taking the "let's wait and see" approach.

 

[Circulartheory]

Well, then quit proclaiming every Finnish prospect is gonna be the next NHL God before he has even done one single thing in his career.

I'm not sure if you understand the "humor" when we call him baby Jesus.

 

[Finnsane]

Granlund has a lot of work to transition his game to the NHL but I am very positive about him. A guy with his attitude and skill will get there eventually, he just needs time, he's not the first smallish player to take his time when coming to the Show.

Will Finland produce the best player in the game one day? Russia, Czechs(before break up), Canada, Sweden, USA, may have already. Maybe just a matter of time, but we still wait.

Maybe not but I don't really see why it matters. Also, I can't recall any American being considered the best in the game, want to freshen up my memory?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Granlund has a lot of work to transition his game to the NHL but I am very positive about him. A guy with his attitude and skill will get there eventually, he just needs time, he's not the first smallish player to take his time when coming to the Show.



Maybe not but I don't really see why it matters. Also, I can't recall any American being considered the best in the game, want to freshen up my memory?

Brett Hull, Leetch, Lafontaine, Modano, Chelios, Kane, Tim Thomas, Quick, all were at one point at or near the top of the game at their positions.

Just off the top of my head, I might be missing a few.

 

[jnt88]

For whatever reason Finland has struggled to have a player as one of the best in the game play in the NHL. Selanne is the closest, he's a pretty special player. Even when he scored 76 goals, it was hard to identify him as the best scorer in the NHL.

Mogilny, Lemieux, Lafontaine, Gilmour, Oates, Yzerman were all putting up ungodly points that season.

the 76-goal season was Selanne's 3rd or 4th best season.

He has lead the league in goals 3 times. Also has been second and third.

Was 2nd in points in 97 and 99 to Lemieux and Jagr (unusually tough competition) respectively. Also a Hart finalist.


Kurri has also lead the league in goals (reg. season and playoffs) and had over 100points in a season without gretzky even after his prime years. Not to mention being known as one of the best defensive forwards of his era.

 

[thomast]

Brett Hull, Leetch, Lafontaine, Modano, Chelios, Kane, Tim Thomas, Quick, all were at one point at or near the top of the game at their positions.

Just off the top of my head, I might be missing a few.

Tim Thomas developed in FEL with huge leaps. I would say that FEL had MAJOR impact on his career and i would maybe call him as product of FEL.

 

[vanskillZ]

Brett Hull, Leetch, Lafontaine, Modano, Chelios, Kane, Tim Thomas, Quick, all were at one point at or near the top of the game at their positions.

Just off the top of my head, I might be missing a few.

So in this case, Selänne, Kiprusoff, Niemi and Rinne could be considered the same level as these guys because they were at one point at near the top of the game at their position? Granlund will be fine...

 

[jnt88]

Brett Hull, Leetch, Lafontaine, Modano, Chelios, Kane, Tim Thomas, Quick, all were at one point at or near the top of the game at their positions.

Just off the top of my head, I might be missing a few.

If you can consider Lafontaine, Modano, Kane, Quick etc. to have been at the top of their positions you HAVE to consider atleast Kurri, Selanne, Kiprusoff, Rinne and to a lesser extent a guy like Lehtinen to have been at the top of theirs.


More on the actual topic at hand: Yes Granlund was overhyped. This is due to the fact that after an amazing generation of finnish players like T.Selanne, S.Koivu, S.Kapanen, J.lehtinen, O.Jokinen, T.Numminen, K.Timonen etc. Finland hasn't been able to produce much NHL talent outside of players like M. Koivu, V.Filppula, T.Ruutu, J.Jokinen, J.Pitkanen none of who are that young anymore.

(I'm not counting the goalies because by some miracle there is an abundance of great finnish goalies; P.Rinne, T.Rask, A.Niemi, K.Lehtonen, N.Backstrom, M.Kiprusoff etc.)

So after a long-ish dry spell of high-end offensive talent from Finland Granlund had the unfortunate fate of being drafted 9th overall and on top of that winning the Finnish championship and World championship (+ the lacrosse goal) in the same year. This caused the finnish tabloids to go crazy on Granlund and the more casual hockey fans to believe it.

After this there have been many finns drafted high in the first round (Armia,Teravainen,Maatta,Ristolainen,Barkov) none of whom have had nearly the amount of hype that Granlund had.

Anyway, the future of finnish hockey is now looking brighter than it has in a long time. And it is way too early to give up on Granlund, he has the talent and hopefully starts adapting more.

 

[CPFC]

Precisely. He played extremely well in the AHL, but with the lockout and no camp before the season, he ultimately fell short.

Nah, Granny had a fairly average AHL season. Lots of points from PP, but didn't get much done 5-on-5. Not to mention that he pretty much disappeared during the play-offs.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

If you can consider Lafontaine, Modano, Kane, Quick etc. to have been at the top of their positions you HAVE to consider atleast Kurri, Selanne, Kiprusoff, Rinne and to a lesser extent a guy like Lehtinen to have been at the top of theirs.


More on the actual topic at hand: Yes Granlund was overhyped. This is due to the fact that after an amazing generation of finnish players like T.Selanne, S.Koivu, S.Kapanen, J.lehtinen, O.Jokinen, T.Numminen, K.Timonen etc. Finland hasn't been able to produce much NHL talent outside of players like M. Koivu, V.Filppula, T.Ruutu, J.Jokinen, J.Pitkanen none of who are that young anymore.

(I'm not counting the goalies because by some miracle there is an abundance of great finnish goalies; P.Rinne, T.Rask, A.Niemi, K.Lehtonen, N.Backstrom, M.Kiprusoff etc.)

So after a long-ish dry spell of high-end offensive talent from Finland Granlund had the unfortunate fate of being drafted 9th overall and on top of that winning the Finnish championship and World championship (+ the lacrosse goal) in the same year. This caused the finnish tabloids to go crazy on Granlund and the more casual hockey fans to believe it.

After this there have been many finns drafted high in the first round (Armia,Teravainen,Maatta,Ristolainen,Barkov) none of whom have had nearly the amount of hype that Granlund had.

Anyway, the future of finnish hockey is now looking brighter than it has in a long time. And it is way too early to give up on Granlund, he has the talent and hopefully starts adapting more.

The poster said he didn't remember any US born elite players which I defined in a post above as one of the best in the game or at their positions.

Again Kurri played with Gretzky, any player playing with arguably the best player in the game has to be factored in.

Also my post said Kurri was a very good player, elite is more debatable. There were a lot of great wingers in that era, I don't think many would say Kurri was the best winger of his era.