Vancouver has 7 years of dead cap coming related to the OEL buyout (2.36, 4.76, 4.76, 2.12, 2.12, 2.12, 2.12). Despite of this they are apparently looking at a Mikheyev buyout that would increase their dead cap amount over the next 4 years by 1.15, 2.15, 1.15, 1.15. They don't need to do this, but they recognize they can get and keep players who are either better or who better fit their needs, with such buyouts.
The Roster Thread, Summer 2024
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Vancouver has 7 years of dead cap coming related to the OEL buyout (2.36, 4.76, 4.76, 2.12, 2.12, 2.12, 2.12). Despite of this they are apparently looking at a Mikheyev buyout that would increase their dead cap amount over the next 4 years by 1.15, 2.15, 1.15, 1.15. They don't need to do this, but they recognize they can get and keep players who are either better or who better fit their needs, with such buyouts.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
Dreger says that Lindholm will be getting $8M on the free agent market. I hope that quiets down any talk of him coming to Buffalo...
Der Jaeger
Generational EBUG
@Gabrielor
I wanted to do a comparison to how a good team was built. Non-generational player teams excluded, because I think that masks things. I took a look at the Lightning with Yzerman and Brisebois. Yzerman's first draft was 2010. Killorn, Stamkos, and Hedman were already drafted.
2010 draft: Brett Connolly and Radko Gudas. 6 picks amounted to nothing, including a 3rd.
2011: Big haul. Namestnikov, Kucherov, Nesterov, and Palat. Matthew Peca played in the NHL and even the 6th round goalie, Adam Wilcox, got 2 NHL games. No misses.
2012: Vasilevskiy and Paquette were the big picks. Koekkoek was their 1st nd played NHL games but never lived up to his draft status. Dotchin and Gusev also played NHL games. Tanner Richard played 3 games. 2 picks amounted to nothing, both were their 2nd round picks.
2013: Drouin and Erne played in the NHL but never lived up to their draft status. Drouin was moved for Sergachev in a fleece of a trade. Gudlevskis and Vermin played NHL games. 2 picks amounted to nothing.
2014: Anthony Deangelo and Brayden Point. Ben Thomas played 5 NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing, including both 2nd round picks.
2015: Mitchell Stephens, Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph. Bokondji Imama played 15 NHL games. 5 picks amounted to nothing, including their 2nd and 3rd round picks.
2016: decent draft where a lot of players made it to the NHL but only Ross Colton made an impact. Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh, Connor Ingram all played a good amount of NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing.
2017: Another draft with a lot of players making the NHL but none making a huge impact: Callan Foote, Alexander Volkov, Nick Perbix, Cole Guttman, Sam Walker. Their 3rd round pick did not make it.
2018: Bad draft year. Gabe Fortier, Magnus Chrona, and Cole Koepke played NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing, including their 3rd. This was the last Yzerman draft.
2019: Another weak draft year. Brisebois' first draft year. Nolan Foote, Hugo Alnefelt, and Max Crozier played NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing.
2020: last draft year I'll look at, as the jury is still out on anything more recent. 9 picks. Gage Goncalves played 2 NHL games. Jack Thompson played 3 NHL games. Their 2nd, Jack Finley, has not reached the NHL yet.
Some things I think from that draft record:
- Having Stamkos and Hedman onboard when Yzerman took over really bouys the entire organization.
- Tampa drafted two franchise level players in this time: Kucherov and Vasilevskiy. Kucherov was not a 1st rounder. Brayden Point was also a huge mid-round find.
- Tampa missed on their highest pick in this time: Drouin. But they recovered by quickly trading him.
- Tampa had a few drafts which didn't amount to a whole lot. 2020, 2019, 2018.
- Tampa had a lot of drats with players who made the NHL but were bottom end roster contributors. 2017, 2016.
- 2012 was saved by Vasilevskiy and 2014 by Point.
- 2011 was the big draft which steered Tampa into contention.
If we look at the Sabres from 2012 onward, they aren't looking that bad.
2012: Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark. Austin played 5 games. 3 picks with no impact.
2013: Ristolainen, Zadorov, Compher, Bailey, Baptiste, Petersen. Malone played 2 games. 4 picks with no impact.
2014: Reinhart, Lemieux, Johansson, Willman, Olofsson. 4 picks with no impact, including 2 second rounders and a 3rd.
2015: Eichel, Guhle, Borgen. 3 players with no impact.
2016: Nylander played in the NHL but never lived up to draft status. Asplund, Fitzgerlad, Murray, and Hagel played NHL games, with Hagel having the most impact. 5 players with no impact, including a 3rd rounder.
2017: Mittelstadt, UPL, Bryson. 3 players with no impact, including a 2nd and 3rd.
2018: Dahlin and Samuelsson. 4 players with no impact.
2019: Last Botterill draft. Cozens, Johnson, Rousek. 3 players with no impact, but Portillo was traded to LA and recovered the 3rd.
2020: 1st Adams draft. Quinn and Peterka. 3 picks with no impact. Last draft I'll look at.
Some things I think about the draft record:
- I don't think the Sabres drafted poorly at all in contrast with Tampa. Buffalo missed on Nylander and Tampa missed on Drouin. Tampa was quick to recover though. Buffalo allowed Nylander to lose value.
- The higher round picks for the Sabres generally contributed, aside from 2014, when Murray out-thought himself in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
- The Sabres hit on Eichel, Reinhart, and Dahlin as top picks. But they also picked up some really high end players in Quinn, Peterka, Cozens, Samuelsson, UPL, and Ullmark.
- The scout also hit on a lot of role players: McCabe, Compher, Zadorov, Lemieux, Olofsson, Borgen, Hagel, Bryson, and the jury is still out on Ryan Johnson though he's looking good.
Thoughts on comparing the organizations:
- I don't see a ton of difference in draft record.
- Tampa starting with Stamkos and Hedman was huge.
- Tampa was able to develop a lot of players into supporting roles. The Sabres seemed to get the same amount of players but not be able to put it together either in development or coaching.
Adams seems to be looking at some quantity drafts to fill to cupboards. 2021 and 2022 put a lot of players into the system. 2021 is trending toward a draft year saved by Power, Rosen, and Novikov. Though we won't know for a while on Poltapov. I'm not sure the Russian draft was a good approach. We'll see.
I think Adams will need to be quicker than Murray and Botterill on recognizing a mistake and getting what you can from the pick. Adams did that with Portillo. He may need to consider that with Rosen and Poltapov.
I'd place a ton of emphasis on player development if I were Adams. I think his scouts are doing a job on par with other franchises, given my extremely limited scope comparison. He's already taken another needed step in coaching.
I think Granato was a good coaching choice given that player development was not an organizational strength. In order to salvage players like Dahlin, Thompson, and Mittelstadt, Granato was needed. The Sabres had to develop at the NHL level, which is not ideal but needed because of how poorly the team was developing players in the AHL.
I wanted to do a comparison to how a good team was built. Non-generational player teams excluded, because I think that masks things. I took a look at the Lightning with Yzerman and Brisebois. Yzerman's first draft was 2010. Killorn, Stamkos, and Hedman were already drafted.
2010 draft: Brett Connolly and Radko Gudas. 6 picks amounted to nothing, including a 3rd.
2011: Big haul. Namestnikov, Kucherov, Nesterov, and Palat. Matthew Peca played in the NHL and even the 6th round goalie, Adam Wilcox, got 2 NHL games. No misses.
2012: Vasilevskiy and Paquette were the big picks. Koekkoek was their 1st nd played NHL games but never lived up to his draft status. Dotchin and Gusev also played NHL games. Tanner Richard played 3 games. 2 picks amounted to nothing, both were their 2nd round picks.
2013: Drouin and Erne played in the NHL but never lived up to their draft status. Drouin was moved for Sergachev in a fleece of a trade. Gudlevskis and Vermin played NHL games. 2 picks amounted to nothing.
2014: Anthony Deangelo and Brayden Point. Ben Thomas played 5 NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing, including both 2nd round picks.
2015: Mitchell Stephens, Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph. Bokondji Imama played 15 NHL games. 5 picks amounted to nothing, including their 2nd and 3rd round picks.
2016: decent draft where a lot of players made it to the NHL but only Ross Colton made an impact. Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh, Connor Ingram all played a good amount of NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing.
2017: Another draft with a lot of players making the NHL but none making a huge impact: Callan Foote, Alexander Volkov, Nick Perbix, Cole Guttman, Sam Walker. Their 3rd round pick did not make it.
2018: Bad draft year. Gabe Fortier, Magnus Chrona, and Cole Koepke played NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing, including their 3rd. This was the last Yzerman draft.
2019: Another weak draft year. Brisebois' first draft year. Nolan Foote, Hugo Alnefelt, and Max Crozier played NHL games. 4 picks amounted to nothing.
2020: last draft year I'll look at, as the jury is still out on anything more recent. 9 picks. Gage Goncalves played 2 NHL games. Jack Thompson played 3 NHL games. Their 2nd, Jack Finley, has not reached the NHL yet.
Some things I think from that draft record:
- Having Stamkos and Hedman onboard when Yzerman took over really bouys the entire organization.
- Tampa drafted two franchise level players in this time: Kucherov and Vasilevskiy. Kucherov was not a 1st rounder. Brayden Point was also a huge mid-round find.
- Tampa missed on their highest pick in this time: Drouin. But they recovered by quickly trading him.
- Tampa had a few drafts which didn't amount to a whole lot. 2020, 2019, 2018.
- Tampa had a lot of drats with players who made the NHL but were bottom end roster contributors. 2017, 2016.
- 2012 was saved by Vasilevskiy and 2014 by Point.
- 2011 was the big draft which steered Tampa into contention.
If we look at the Sabres from 2012 onward, they aren't looking that bad.
2012: Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark. Austin played 5 games. 3 picks with no impact.
2013: Ristolainen, Zadorov, Compher, Bailey, Baptiste, Petersen. Malone played 2 games. 4 picks with no impact.
2014: Reinhart, Lemieux, Johansson, Willman, Olofsson. 4 picks with no impact, including 2 second rounders and a 3rd.
2015: Eichel, Guhle, Borgen. 3 players with no impact.
2016: Nylander played in the NHL but never lived up to draft status. Asplund, Fitzgerlad, Murray, and Hagel played NHL games, with Hagel having the most impact. 5 players with no impact, including a 3rd rounder.
2017: Mittelstadt, UPL, Bryson. 3 players with no impact, including a 2nd and 3rd.
2018: Dahlin and Samuelsson. 4 players with no impact.
2019: Last Botterill draft. Cozens, Johnson, Rousek. 3 players with no impact, but Portillo was traded to LA and recovered the 3rd.
2020: 1st Adams draft. Quinn and Peterka. 3 picks with no impact. Last draft I'll look at.
Some things I think about the draft record:
- I don't think the Sabres drafted poorly at all in contrast with Tampa. Buffalo missed on Nylander and Tampa missed on Drouin. Tampa was quick to recover though. Buffalo allowed Nylander to lose value.
- The higher round picks for the Sabres generally contributed, aside from 2014, when Murray out-thought himself in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
- The Sabres hit on Eichel, Reinhart, and Dahlin as top picks. But they also picked up some really high end players in Quinn, Peterka, Cozens, Samuelsson, UPL, and Ullmark.
- The scout also hit on a lot of role players: McCabe, Compher, Zadorov, Lemieux, Olofsson, Borgen, Hagel, Bryson, and the jury is still out on Ryan Johnson though he's looking good.
Thoughts on comparing the organizations:
- I don't see a ton of difference in draft record.
- Tampa starting with Stamkos and Hedman was huge.
- Tampa was able to develop a lot of players into supporting roles. The Sabres seemed to get the same amount of players but not be able to put it together either in development or coaching.
Adams seems to be looking at some quantity drafts to fill to cupboards. 2021 and 2022 put a lot of players into the system. 2021 is trending toward a draft year saved by Power, Rosen, and Novikov. Though we won't know for a while on Poltapov. I'm not sure the Russian draft was a good approach. We'll see.
I think Adams will need to be quicker than Murray and Botterill on recognizing a mistake and getting what you can from the pick. Adams did that with Portillo. He may need to consider that with Rosen and Poltapov.
I'd place a ton of emphasis on player development if I were Adams. I think his scouts are doing a job on par with other franchises, given my extremely limited scope comparison. He's already taken another needed step in coaching.
I think Granato was a good coaching choice given that player development was not an organizational strength. In order to salvage players like Dahlin, Thompson, and Mittelstadt, Granato was needed. The Sabres had to develop at the NHL level, which is not ideal but needed because of how poorly the team was developing players in the AHL.
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The pro side is the more troubling part of the house for sure.
Gabrielor
Registered User
Great work! Kudos for the effort.
Small note: Vasilevsky WAS a 1st rounder. 19th overall in the Grigs/Girgs draft.
Now for the meat of it:
If you look at their drafts in a vacuum, sure, they look close, but what separates Tampa from us is A) their pillars from a previous era stayed loyal, and one of ours was the opposite of that, a selfish spoiled child, and B) development. We rushed EVERYONE in that 2012-2015 pocket. Oh what could've been with Ristolainen in proper development.
The hits minus Dahlin didn't gel here though. Both's best seasons have been elsewhere with other supporting casts, and the useful high ends weren't together in full form at the same time.
That's a lot of high draft capital on role players, and again, most never did it here.
This. This. This.
Also this. Adams, to his credit, has started that process. I'm going to make another post to drive this point home.
Yep, made sense, and it was a good idea.
We're entering that phase.
He has. It's partly why everyone keeps bitching.
I think it depends on what era we're talking about, because I think Kevin Devine and co. flubbed 2012-2014.
2015 gets a no-grade, because Murray traded picks 21, 25, 31, and 43. IMAGINE if they were patient instead of going for broke.
2016 was a complete failure and Murry's magnum opus here.
2017-2019 in the Botterill years was always light on picks, but it improved here, markedly.
2020-present, already talked about.
Granato did his part, he wasn't the guy for this phase. Lindy is, and *could* be for the next one too (contention), but we'll see.
While I was waiting for the Dallas-Edmonton game to end, I did this exercise, and I hope people understand what it means:
Note: I used who's currently starting for the 4 teams, and the players listed for Buffalo, so Buffalo is in part biased due to less players atm.
The weight/height measurements have a bias. It's a roster of 14 skaters vs. 18.
The age is why I posted this, and the focus. THEY ARE YOOOUNNNNNNNGGGGG. Like, incredibly young.
Yes, it's no excuse to not make the playoffs. But make no mistake, they need years played and growth more than they need a machup center or a top 6 forward.
Push Dr Tracksuit
Gerstmann 3:16
- Jun 9, 2012
- 13,537
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I struggle with assigning blame because of how much was wrong. And especially when the coaching staff for the last decade was so glaringly, and in several cases considerably, below nhl par. I think you just need to look around the playoffs and see how many ex-sabres are contributors. You've got multiple coaches, rolston/nolan/krueger, that played house league systems. Bylsma and his stretch pass breakout fetish. Donny was trying to play junior development hockey against pros.
not saying the scouts weren't a problem, but the number of players that have come through buffalo and played below their career averages, left, and magically returned or exceeded their career averages, is too large to be all on the pro staff
Push Dr Tracksuit
Gerstmann 3:16
- Jun 9, 2012
- 13,537
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organizationally its not an excuse, but ya for the individual players it is, you dont have to look much further than everyones favorite Av the legend of big casey mitts, who famously took years to find it
and yet every thread has its mass of posters that want to condemn 18-22 yr olds who have had a bad season as worthless busts, they want to blast the coach but dont want to give credence to that when talking about the guys playing for him
the drought has killed the vast majority of intelligent discussion on this board because you need to have 80hrs a week to analyze game tape to parse out what the f*** is even going wrong
Lindy is at least a bonafide NHL coach, hockey gods help us, let him turn this around, please for f***s sake
is it the Carolina cup? did we disrespect the hockey gods by going after the canes as undeserving winners? HAVENT WE SUFFERED ENOUGH!
Sabre the Win
Joke of a Franchise
- Jun 27, 2013
- 13,219
- 5,797
Interesting insight, one caveat I would mention is that
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
I struggle with putting all of the blame on coaching when the supportimg cast around the younger players has been so awful too. That takes me back to ownership, the GMs, and the pro scouts.
Most of the teams under the coaches you listed were pure garbage and wouldn't stand a fighting chance under any coach. Some great players, for sure, but the teams were constructed as poorly as any ever to touch the ice when you look at them each from top-to-bottom.
I'm looking at the marginal or depth acquisitions that repeatedly flop vs. the coaching issues. Erik Johnson, Anders Bjork, Will Butcher, Eric Staal, Cody Eakin, Tobias Reader, Taylor Hall, Marcus Johansson, season 2 of Tyson Jost... Berglund, Sobotka, Wilson, Hunwick. Beyond the use stuff by the coaching, the fringe and support folks they bring in are regularly big misses.
Nylander finished the season in Columbus with 11 goals in his 23 games played there.
Fjordy
Soul Dancing in the Dark
- Jun 20, 2018
- 19,960
- 11,153
I would take a closer look at Stolarz if for some reason they want Levi to spend another season in Rochester. Just not sure he'll see much play with Lindy.
Der Jaeger
Generational EBUG
Der Jaeger
Generational EBUG
If we look at my post above, I agree with both your takes to a degree. I think the raw material was there, and the amateur scouting department did a good job.
Management (trades, player acquisition), pro scouts (who the traded for and brought in), and overall team construction were poor. The foresight on how to develop was probably the worst issue.
I don't let the coaches off the hook either. We can look back at a decade of GDTs and see the issues there.
I do think Adams is turning it around, but it was such a disaster that it's going to take time. @Gabrielor posted the overall age of the team, and it should be remembered when we get frustrated.
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Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
The "effort" idea, emerges again. I want results. Krebs is running out of time. He doesn't do much at all and needs to actually produce. Skinner does.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
What do “results” mean to you? Results to me mean getting to the postseason and doing well there - a metric for which Skinner has the worst record of any player to ever play the game.
He’s arguably the worst player in the NHL, if you care about anything but regular season even strength goals. Not wins, just personal goals in games where his team usually loses. I’m not buying this tired argument.
This would be classic Pegula. The guy has been so all over the map as an owner. I totally believe he would bring someone in, even kneecap Kevyn Adams. Ownership in Buffalo is just so unprofessional. It will infect the Bills at some point and then people will care.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
What do you even think he's planning? Adams replacement , or Adams boss?
Zman5778
Moderator
Bringing in Waddell as President of Hockey Ops would be one of the most professional things that Pegula has ever done in his time as Sabres owner. We've desperately needed a PoHO for years.
Lindy will coach for a couple years and groom Appert to eventually take his place, then Lindy goes to the Hockey Ops Prez role.
Imagine caring about the regular season, even strength goals? Where exactly does he doesn't want to win crap come from exactly? He has scored tons of key goals. He is not the reason the Sabres haven't made the playoffs. He is on the higher talent side of the team. His contract is ridiculous, but you go ask Terry Pegula how on earth he got to $72 M ($9 x 8 years) when no one else could offer more than seven years. It was absurd. It should have been a $60 M deal. Tops. Over 7, that would have been $8.57 M annually. I don't even believe any team would have paid that. Terry bid against himself. It was nuts. People hate Skinner because of the contract and that is not a good reason. Rasmus Dahlin has missed the playoffs six years. It's not his fault he got picked by an inept owner.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
I won't even allow myself to believe that's what he's trying to do here. All messaging from Ownership for years has been that they don't need/want that. Reporting has been aligned with that message too. It would be a real boost to morale if that was the plan here.
It would be. The sudden change of direction would just be so Terry after all these years. And to do it after he hired the coach? Just so Buffalo. But I agree, I'm for it.
How did Appert get gifted the head coaching job. Everybody is saying that? When did he become a lock to be an NHL head coach?
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