The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Sabre Dance]

Talk about a triggering post, this may win the award for worst analytics post of the year.

Let's look at something actually semi-useful:

Last year's xGAR/60 for defensemen, filtering out any guys that played under 50 minutes:

• Dahlin: 24th
• Bryson: 48th
• Samuelsson: 121st
• Power: 179th
• R Johnson: 203rd
• Byram: 215th
• Clifton: 227th
• Jokiharju: 230th

Never mind for a second that GAR and xGAR punishes players in defensive roles, or that it's not particularly useful in determining defensemen impact (FFS last year 3 of the top 4 dmen in xGAR were Vladislav Kolyachonok, Joel Hanley, and Spencer Stastney).

All that aside they have EH is "projecting" that all of our super young defensemen will get worse with another year of experience and better coaching, as well as better defensive forwards supporting them?

Glad I don't follow this dude...

Ok, enough about the metric.

How good are these players?

Byram
Jokiharju
Samuelsson
Clifton

 

[elchud]

Pageau could be had for FC, at least give Krebs some competition for 3C

 

[Diaspora]

Pageau could be had for FC, at least give Krebs some competition for 3C

FC and $5M for two years, no? I'd be opposed.

 

[elchud]

Dahlin if we take the NHL specifically

Murray if we are talking the organization

 

[elchud]

FC and $5M for two years, no? I'd be opposed.

KA opposed as well of course.

They are looking to next year clearly. If Quinn/Peterka/Byram/Levi all get pretty decent term on their deals, we could be a capped out team. There *could be* as much as 18 million with those 4, depending on this year's production and how many years on the contracts.

The Skinner buyout may be capitulation, as in, there is no mandate to make the playoffs this year. Let's change the culture, have Ruff right the ship, etc.

If Terry is down with all this, Adams job may actually be safe.

 

[elchud]

Zucker is the Skinner replacement. There won't be any trade for Ehlers. We've got too many bodies on the wings as it is.

With Joker ostensibly coming back, Ruff will make lines and pairs with a fresh set of eyes and tinker with them all season probably. 3C is the only true hole on this team. The center spine (1/2/4), Dahlin 1PP Power 2PP, and UPL as starter are the only things that are currently set, lineup wise. Looks like Rosen/Kulich/Savoie/Ostlund will all start the season in Rochester.

I think Helenius has a legit shot at the roster, over the 4 other kids. If they feel better with him at 3C than Krebs, they will go with it, just like they went with Benson last year.

 

[Diaspora]

KA opposed as well of course.

They are looking to next year clearly. If Quinn/Peterka/Byram/Levi all get pretty decent term on their deals, we could be a capped out team. There *could be* as much as 18 million with those 4, depending on this year's production and how many years on the contracts.

The Skinner buyout may be capitulation, as in, there is no mandate to make the playoffs this year. Let's change the culture, have Ruff right the ship, etc.

If Terry is down with all this, Adams job may actually be safe.

Yes, they need to preserve cap space for the RFAs.

I think you're reading the Skinner business wrong.

First of all, you shouldn't assume that Skinner was a happy camper and big bad Adams unilaterally decided to buy him out. We've seen what he looks like when he's disengaged. He was disengaged for a good part of the last season.

When he's not fully involved, he's very much a net negative. Not reliable. If you only show up for games that matter, then pretty soon, none of the games matter.

There is essentially no difference in buying out Skinner now vs. next year. Regardless of his performance in Edmonton, removing him was the right thing to do for this year. It doesn't really matter that no one body was brought in to replace his production. An increase in the work ethic across the board will make up for it.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Zucker is the Skinner replacement. There won't be any trade for Ehlers. We've got too many bodies on the wings as it is.

With Joker ostensibly coming back, Ruff will make lines and pairs with a fresh set of eyes and tinker with them all season probably. 3C is the only true hole on this team. The center spine (1/2/4), Dahlin 1PP Power 2PP, and UPL as starter are the only things that are currently set, lineup wise. Looks like Rosen/Kulich/Savoie/Ostlund will all start the season in Rochester.

I think Helenius has a legit shot at the roster, over the 4 other kids. If they feel better with him at 3C than Krebs, they will go with it, just like they went with Benson last year.

Zucker move reminds me of Roy for Ott.

 

[elchud]

Yes, they need to preserve cap space for the RFAs.

I think you're reading the Skinner business wrong.

First of all, you shouldn't assume that Skinner was a happy camper and big bad Adams unilaterally decided to buy him out. We've seen what he looks like when he's disengaged. He was disengaged for a good part of the last season.

When he's not fully involved, he's very much a net negative. Not reliable. If you only show up for games that matter, then pretty soon, none of the games matter.

There is essentially no difference in buying out Skinner now vs. next year. Regardless of his performance in Edmonton, removing him was the right thing to do for this year. It doesn't really matter that no one body was brought in to replace his production. An increase in the work ethic across the board will make up for it.

I agree with all of this. I just mean that...they certainly explored trades during the draft...for multiple reasons nothing worked...all that was left was finding a quality winger who actually would sign a one-year deal with this team. That is the Skinner replacement for this season.

I know this isn't the KA thread, but if he could have signed Mitts a year ago to $5.5 at decent term (min. 4 years), failure to do so would be the worst decision he has made as GM.

 

[Chainshot]

The games changes. Everyone is going to try to be the Panthers and build that way. Everyone wanted to be the Kings, and then the Pens won back to back with a bunch of smaller forwards.

The Pens small forwards are akin to a bag full of meth addled badgers. I don't see much badger in the Sabres stable.

 

[DeletedUser539]

The Pens small forwards are akin to a bag full of meth addled badgers. I don't see much badger in the Sabres stable.

I see it in Benson and possibly savoie

 

[Bobby Bottle Service]

Saw some speculation on reddit that the ask for an unsigned Ehlers is 3 of Savoie/Kulich/Ostlund/Rosen and a 1st.

Talk about getting fleeced. GMTM would have taken the deal.

 

[Digable5]

The Pens small forwards are akin to a bag full of meth addled badgers. I don't see much badger in the Sabres stable.

Can we at least get them meth?

 

[Tatanka]

Can we at least get them meth?

Meth addled kitties are not tougher to play against. They are just more finicky eaters and refuse to use the litter box.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Saw some speculation on reddit that the ask for an unsigned Ehlers is 3 of Savoie/Kulich/Ostlund/Rosen and a 1st.

Talk about getting fleeced. GMTM would have taken the deal.

Unsigned, too. You might get one of Rosen/Ostlund/protected 1st plus some stuff, but absolutely lmfao at 3 of those pieces. Winnipeg’s GM is delusional if he thinks he’s getting even half of that value from any team for a year of Ehlers.

 

[Digable5]

Meth addled kitties are not tougher to play against. They are just more finicky eaters and refuse to use the litter box.

I would argue that if the Sabres players just started using the ice for their business (instead of their "litter box"/lockeroom) nobody would want to play them. Maybe a different definition for "harder to play against" but I believe it would still work.

 

[Digable5]

Are the only true trade candidates left Zegras, Necas and Ehlers? Who else should I be considering as options for top 6 scorer or 3C?

 

[tsujimoto74]

Are the only true trade candidates left Zegras, Necas and Ehlers? Who else should I be considering as options for top 6 scorer or 3C?

Guessing Carolina tries to keep Necas with Guentzel gone (and I didn’t want him anyway), and the asking price on Ehlers is reportedly absurd, so probably just Zegras from that group. Though he seems like more of what we already have, and the asking price there may also be ridiculous.

 

[TehDoak]

Are the only true trade candidates left Zegras, Necas and Ehlers? Who else should I be considering as options for top 6 scorer or 3C?

Quite a few more, GMs just aren't broadcasting the names.

Nashville has to move someone
Philadelphia has said they want to shed some salary.
Colorado has to move someone
Edmonton has to move someone

There are moves to be made.

I'm not sure anyone is getting traded that is a huge needle mover.

Maybe Konecny

 

[blackrock]

With Zemgod departing... Who is the longest tenured Sabre now?

Joker?
Bryson?

Sabres Tenure List:

UPL - 2017 Draft, 54th
*Bryson - 2017 Draft, 99th
Dahlin - 2018 Draft, 1st
Samuelsson - 2018 Draft, 32nd
Thompson - 2018 Trade, 7/1
Cozens - 2019 Draft, 7th
*Johnson - 2019 Daft, 31st
*Rousek - 2019 Draft, 160th
Jokiharju - 2019 Trade, 7/9
Quinn - 2020 Draft, 8th
Peterka - 2020 Draft, 34th
Power - 2021 Draft, 1st
*Rosen - 2021 Draft, 14th
Levi - 2021 Trad, 7/24
Tuch - 2021 Trade 11/4
Krebs - 2021 Trade 11/4
*Savoie - 2022 Draft, 9th
*Ostlund - 2022 Draft, 16th
*Kulich - 2022 Draft, 28th
Greenway - 2023 Trade, 3/3
Benson - 2023 Draft, 13th
Clifton - 2023 FA, 7/1
Byram - 2024 Trade, 3/6
*Helenius - 2024 Draft, 14th
Malenstyn - 2024 Trade, 6/29
Zucker - 2024 FA, 7/1
Lafferty - 2024 FA, 7/1
Aube-Kubel - 2024 FA, 7/1
*Gilbert - 2024 FA, 7/1

* Roster status uncertain (I tried to be over-inclusive).

 

[Fjordy]

Are the only true trade candidates left Zegras, Necas and Ehlers? Who else should I be considering as options for top 6 scorer or 3C?

C:

Zegras
Wild Bill
Hartman
Granlund
Kotkaniemi
Drury
Kuznetsov
Kadri
Pageau
McLeod
Roy
Jenner
Frost
Colton
Dickinson
Gourde
Eller
Suter
Rossi

Some of them can also be considered as wingers

W:

Zegras
Necas
Farabee
Vatrano
Crouse
Konecny
Coleman
Iafallo
McGroarty
Kakko

Tarasenko and Roslovic in UFA

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’ve assume Krebs is the 3C, but we may see a (very real) competition for that spot between him and Savoie/Kulich/Helenius. It makes sense that they would leave a spot open for a prospect to take from the onset. Do I agree with that approach? Hell no. But if that’s what it is, I’m here for it.

It seems like the only spot open for grabs. We have our 4th line of Malenstyn-lafferty-NAK. Our top two centers are Thompson and cozens. And we have 6 top 9 wingers in Quinn, Peterka, Tuch, benson, Zucker, and greenway.

Sure, I suppose you could see a legit Top 6 acquisition pushing down Zucker or Greenway to the 4th line, but unless that happens, I don’t see a prospect pushing any of them down.

 

[TageGod]

Zucker is the Skinner replacement. There won't be any trade for Ehlers. We've got too many bodies on the wings as it is.

With Joker ostensibly coming back, Ruff will make lines and pairs with a fresh set of eyes and tinker with them all season probably. 3C is the only true hole on this team. The center spine (1/2/4), Dahlin 1PP Power 2PP, and UPL as starter are the only things that are currently set, lineup wise. Looks like Rosen/Kulich/Savoie/Ostlund will all start the season in Rochester.

I think Helenius has a legit shot at the roster, over the 4 other kids. If they feel better with him at 3C than Krebs, they will go with it, just like they went with Benson last year.

OOF. He is 17, 0 chance. You have multiple prospects above him who are centers knocking on the door.

 

[Dirty Dog]

OOF. He is 17, 0 chance. You have multiple prospects above him who are centers knocking on the door.

I disagree. I think he is clearly a long shot and is behind krebs, Kulich, and Savoie in likelihood for that spot. But if they let him compete for the spot and he is the best, they’d give it to him.

They gave it to benson last year and there were prospects “above him”

Zucker is the Skinner replacement. There won't be any trade for Ehlers. We've got too many bodies on the wings as it is.

With Joker ostensibly coming back, Ruff will make lines and pairs with a fresh set of eyes and tinker with them all season probably. 3C is the only true hole on this team. The center spine (1/2/4), Dahlin 1PP Power 2PP, and UPL as starter are the only things that are currently set, lineup wise. Looks like Rosen/Kulich/Savoie/Ostlund will all start the season in Rochester.

I think Helenius has a legit shot at the roster, over the 4 other kids. If they feel better with him at 3C than Krebs, they will go with it, just like they went with Benson last year.

Ha, I just came in here and made a mostly similar post.

 

[TageGod]

I disagree. I think he is clearly a long shot and is behind krebs, Kulich, and Savoie in likelihood for that spot. But if they let him compete for the spot and he is the best, they’d give it to him.

They gave it to benson last year and there were prospects “above him”



Ha, I just came in here and made a mostly similar post.

He performed the best, but only because Savoie injury knocked him out of what was likely his spot. Which leads me to believe Savoie will in fact be one of the best players at camp for a THIRD year and finally get the spot he deserves.