Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Rubi]

Why contrive such a disjointed analysis when you could simply compare Celebrini’s season to-date to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year?

I think I know the answer.

Um... Because Celebrini is competing against one of the top goalies in the NHL and looking like a distant 2nd. Is Celebrini one of the NHL's top forwards? Not even close.
Also Wolf is a difference maker every game he plays. Is Celebrini?

 

[Star Platinum]

Why contrive such a disjointed analysis when you could simply compare Celebrini’s season to-date to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year?

I think I know the answer.

Well, on the one hand, 5th best goalie is more impressive than 90th best forward if we're just looking at points. On the other hand, there's a lot more forwards in the league than there are goalies.

Let's not go nuts on how many starts Wolf has had though. Right now, he's 24th in the league in terms of games played, so he's not carrying the huge load for Calgary that guys like Hellebuyck, Saros, and Vasilevskiy are. The one traditional stat he's elite at right now is save percentage (he is tied for first in goalie assists though).

There's a long way to go and we don't know how injuries and cold streaks will factor in. Right now we have a very nice pool of potential winners.

 

[Mattb124]

Um... Because Celebrini is competing against one of the top goalies in the NHL and looking like a distant 2nd. Is Celebrini one of the NHL's top forwards? Not even close.
Also Wolf is a difference maker every game he plays. Is Celebrini?

You are missing the point, and I think intentionally so. You compared Wolf to a Calder winning rookie goalie from 30+ years ago and then compared Celebrini to current veterans when considering a trophy for the most proficient rookie.

As a rookie forward, it would be more relevant to compare him to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year, but I can see why you wouldn’t do that because Celebrini’s production is slightly out-pacing Bedard’s rookie season which would undermine your narrative.

I do love that the front-runners are a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie - a rather unique Calder race.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Current projected paces

Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p

Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).

I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.

Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.

It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.

Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.

Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.

WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.

 

[Rubi]

You are missing the point, and I think intentionally so. You compared Wolf to a Calder winning rookie goalie from 30+ years ago and then compared Celebrini to current veterans when considering a trophy for the most proficient rookie.

As a rookie forward, it would be more relevant to compare him to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year, but I can see why you wouldn’t do that because Celebrini’s production is slightly out-pacing Bedard’s rookie season which would undermine your narrative.

I do love that the front-runners are a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie - a rather unique Calder race.

I only brought up Brodeur to illustrate that goalies do occasionally win the Calder and Brodeur's numbers are very similar to Wolf's... actually even slightly lower if Wolf maintains his current pace.

As for actual comparison re Wolf, I pointed out he's the 5th best goalie in the league today when it comes to Sv% and there isnt much difference between him and the current leader... A .008 Sv% difference.

Whereas when you look at Celebrini, the current scoring skater leaders have over double the points that Celebrini has. Celebrini only looks great if you just compare him to the other current rookie skaters. Wolf looks great when you compare him to ALL goalies playing this year.

 

[Rubi]

Current projected paces

Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p

Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).

I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.

Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.

It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.

Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.

Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.

WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.

With the Flames fighting for a playoff spot i think its quite reasonable to expect Wolf to play at least 20 of the 30 games remaining giving him 50 or so for the season. He may even play more. Hes likely to play the 3 remaining games before the 2 week break and after the break the Flames only have 3 BtB games. I can see a 22-8 game split between Wolf and Vladar.

 

[eojsmada]

Seems like all the skaters are hitting the wall. Wolf continues to put up impressive rookie numbers for a goalie.

 

[Barrie22]

Seems like all the skaters are hitting the wall. Wolf continues to put up impressive rookie numbers for a goalie.

Not much of a wall for Celebrini, 6 points in the last 5 games and 10 in the last 10.

Only thing hurting Celebrini at the moment is the sharks are on like a 18 month break from games.

 

[coooldude]

Tonight is Calder Bowl 2k25 - MTL @ SJS. just remember, whoever has the best game tonight, if he's on your team, then the race is over and your guy won AINEC and the other fans are all doo doo heads.

And if instead your guy had a worse game, no he didn't because of /60 or something unfair or whatever and everyone else is just biased.

And anyway, Wolf would have saved that shot, so it shouldn't really count.

 

[Rubi]

Dustin Wolf back stopping the Flames tonight against the Leafs. Should be more interesting to watch than bottom of the barrel teams Sharks vs Habs...

 

[hockfan1991]

I only brought up Brodeur to illustrate that goalies do occasionally win the Calder and Brodeur's numbers are very similar to Wolf's... actually even slightly lower if Wolf maintains his current pace.

As for actual comparison re Wolf, I pointed out he's the 5th best goalie in the league today when it comes to Sv% and there isnt much difference between him and the current leader... A .008 Sv% difference.

Whereas when you look at Celebrini, the current scoring skater leaders have over double the points that Celebrini has. Celebrini only looks great if you just compare him to the other current rookie skaters. Wolf looks great when you compare him to ALL goalies playing this year.

That is completely false. Celebrini plays on a dog shit team with little to no help. he has played a third of minutes with crap linemates. He is in the top percentiles as far as level of competition. Hes going against to tier forwards being matched up against crosby and barkov while also going against top d. Does he make mistakes sure, but he never looks out of place and does something memorable everygame. Hes on a 70 point pace and could be ppg if he gets hot down the stretch. Hes achieving this on the worst roster in the league and being the youngest player in the league also. You do not watch him, you just look at stats. Watch him with your own eyes and say he only look good against other rookies? he wins 75% of his board battles against grown as men nhl 10 year vets. hes barely played half a season. Keep stroking Wolf but you are missing on Celebrini by a mile.

 

[Rubi]

That is completely false. Celebrini plays on a dog shit team with little to no help. he has played a third of minutes with crap linemates. He is in the top percentiles as far as level of competition. Hes going against to tier forwards being matched up against crosby and barkov while also going against top d. Does he make mistakes sure, but he never looks out of place and does something memorable everygame. Hes on a 70 point pace and could be ppg if he gets hot down the stretch. Hes achieving this on the worst roster in the league and being the youngest player in the league also. You do not watch him, you just look at stats. Watch him with your own eyes and say he only look good against other rookies? he wins 75% of his board battles against grown as men nhl 10 year vets. hes barely played half a season. Keep stroking Wolf but you are missing on Celebrini by a mile.

You're right... Celebrini is getting very little support. However, rightly or wrongly, I look at the Calder trophy as being the MVP award for rookies. Wolf is almost singlehandedly dragging the Flames into the playoffs.... and this is on a team that everyone expected to finish in the bottom 10 of the league this year. He's also playing behind a defence. that with the exception on Weegar and Andersson, is mediocre at best. .. Miromanov, Bean, Pachal, Barrie, and Hanley. I will however admit that Kevin Bahl has surpringly stepped up big time and hasnt looked out of place.playing beside Rasmus Andersson. Unfortuately Bahl is injured right now and he maybe out for a few more weeks.

 

[Fraser28]

Hutson wins this because there isn't a forward in the race. It goes like forward->defender->goalie, and im not saying Hutson isn't worthy, but thats how it goes.

Uhh huh?

Current projected paces

Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p

Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).

I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.

Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.

It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.

Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.

Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.

WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.

Not sure I agree with that. If the voting were today, I think Celebrini would win.

 

[Fraser28]

Seems like all the skaters are hitting the wall. Wolf continues to put up impressive rookie numbers for a goalie.

How in the world is Celebrini hitting a wall?

 

[Frank Drebin]

Dustin Wolf back stopping the Flames tonight against the Leafs. Should be more interesting to watch than bottom of the barrel teams Sharks vs Habs...

View attachment 972349

It was interesting?

 

[Frank Drebin]

Celebrini an absolute stud and hutson having a heck of a game too

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Seems like all the skaters are hitting the wall. Wolf continues to put up impressive rookie numbers for a goalie.

Celebrini has been hot what

 

[Frank Drebin]

Celebrini best player on the ice tonight wow (after joel armia)

 

[bud12]

The guy is already a stud and a top center in the league. To bad our own 1st overall play like if he was in a beer league with no intensity

 

[karltonian]

Celebrini best player on the ice tonight wow (after joel armia)

that pass in from smith was absolutely robbed twice by the goalie. macklin's gonna be replaying that one. he got everything he wanted on both those shots.

 

[Mattb124]

It was interesting?

It is, from the perspective that the poster you replied to had predicted “…..a 22-8 game split between Wolf and Vladar.” - the very same numbers in Wolf’s .828 save % from tonight’s game.

What I dis find interesting is that the results from tonight with the 3 front-runners in action lined out just as the recently posted Vegas odds suggested: Celebrini > Hutson > Wolf.

 

[TimAllen]

Dustin Wolf back stopping the Flames tonight against the Leafs. Should be more interesting to watch than bottom of the barrel teams Sharks vs Habs...

View attachment 972349

Dang no follow up on this tonight. I'm assuming Wolf played so well that this guy passed out?

 

[Khrox]

It is, from the perspective that the poster you replied to had predicted “…..a 22-8 game split between Wolf and Vladar.” - the very same numbers in Wolf’s .828 save % from tonight’s game.

Honestly, it's still likely that that's the split. Shame Wolf had a rough game,

Celebrini plays on a dog shit team with little to no help.

I mean, if we're being fair, so does Wolf. I love the Flames, but like, we're regularly running Daniil Miromanov,Jake Bean, Tyson Barrie, and Joel Hanley rotating into our top 4 defenseman. Pachal is a good 3rd pair guy, and Weegar/Andersson are the only other D-Men on the team that should be seeing regular ice-time (you can include Bahl to that when he's healthy as well). Most of us are pretty sure half our AHL team would be better options than what we've regularly been seeing. And our forwards, while exciting to see some of the younger guys get time and develop, are struggling hard to score (I'd be surprised if we had more than 6 players this season get 30+ points. Only 5 are a lock, and Sharangovich if he keeps up this hot streak will likely make it. That's about it. Not counting Frost or Farabee who will play like 30 games with the Flames this year and both have a chance to make it as well). Wolf is the only reason we aren't a bottom 5 team in the league (which sucks because no high pick that could have been used on a potential 1C that we don't have in our system or on our team, but I'm never gonna be mad that we have a young guy coming in and doing well).

 

[Great Makohead Shork]

Not in the Calder race but I thought Owen Beck played a solid game tonight. Colin Graf with his first goal, too. Hutson, Mack, and Smith with some nifty plays. Just an entertaining game all around from two up-and-coming young teams.

 

[Star Platinum]

I only brought up Brodeur to illustrate that goalies do occasionally win the Calder and Brodeur's numbers are very similar to Wolf's... actually even slightly lower if Wolf maintains his current pace.

As for actual comparison re Wolf, I pointed out he's the 5th best goalie in the league today when it comes to Sv% and there isnt much difference between him and the current leader... A .008 Sv% difference.

Whereas when you look at Celebrini, the current scoring skater leaders have over double the points that Celebrini has. Celebrini only looks great if you just compare him to the other current rookie skaters. Wolf looks great when you compare him to ALL goalies playing this year.

Starts: 21st
Wins: 14th
GAA: 16th
Shutouts: T-16th

Fifth best goalie....