Current projected paces
Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p
Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).
I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.
Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.
It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.
Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.
Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.
WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.
