Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Rubi]

Why contrive such a disjointed analysis when you could simply compare Celebrini’s season to-date to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year?

I think I know the answer.

Um... Because Celebrini is competing against one of the top goalies in the NHL and looking like a distant 2nd. Is Celebrini one of the NHL's top forwards? Not even close.
Also Wolf is a difference maker every game he plays. Is Celebrini?

 

[Star Platinum]

Why contrive such a disjointed analysis when you could simply compare Celebrini’s season to-date to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year?

I think I know the answer.

Well, on the one hand, 5th best goalie is more impressive than 90th best forward if we're just looking at points. On the other hand, there's a lot more forwards in the league than there are goalies.

Let's not go nuts on how many starts Wolf has had though. Right now, he's 24th in the league in terms of games played, so he's not carrying the huge load for Calgary that guys like Hellebuyck, Saros, and Vasilevskiy are. The one traditional stat he's elite at right now is save percentage (he is tied for first in goalie assists though).

There's a long way to go and we don't know how injuries and cold streaks will factor in. Right now we have a very nice pool of potential winners.

 

[Mattb124]

Um... Because Celebrini is competing against one of the top goalies in the NHL and looking like a distant 2nd. Is Celebrini one of the NHL's top forwards? Not even close.
Also Wolf is a difference maker every game he plays. Is Celebrini?

You are missing the point, and I think intentionally so. You compared Wolf to a Calder winning rookie goalie from 30+ years ago and then compared Celebrini to current veterans when considering a trophy for the most proficient rookie.

As a rookie forward, it would be more relevant to compare him to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year, but I can see why you wouldn’t do that because Celebrini’s production is slightly out-pacing Bedard’s rookie season which would undermine your narrative.

I do love that the front-runners are a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie - a rather unique Calder race.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Current projected paces

Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p

Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).

I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.

Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.

It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.

Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.

Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.

WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.

 

[Rubi]

You are missing the point, and I think intentionally so. You compared Wolf to a Calder winning rookie goalie from 30+ years ago and then compared Celebrini to current veterans when considering a trophy for the most proficient rookie.

As a rookie forward, it would be more relevant to compare him to Bedard’s Calder-winning season from last year, but I can see why you wouldn’t do that because Celebrini’s production is slightly out-pacing Bedard’s rookie season which would undermine your narrative.

I do love that the front-runners are a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie - a rather unique Calder race.

I only brought up Brodeur to illustrate that goalies do occasionally win the Calder and Brodeur's numbers are very similar to Wolf's... actually even slightly lower if Wolf maintains his current pace.

As for actual comparison re Wolf, I pointed out he's the 5th best goalie in the league today when it comes to Sv% and there isnt much difference between him and the current leader... A .008 Sv% difference.

Whereas when you look at Celebrini, the current scoring skater leaders have over double the points that Celebrini has. Celebrini only looks great if you just compare him to the other current rookie skaters. Wolf looks great when you compare him to ALL goalies playing this year.

 

[Rubi]

Current projected paces

Celebrini 72gp 27g 63p
Hutson 82gp 4g 61p
Michkov 80gp 21g 52p

Even with his 5 game cold streak, Hutson is still probably the favorite, though I think he'll have some voter bias to overcome going up against a 1st overall pick. He might get a bit of a boost due to playing for such a major market though. If he's able to break 60 points that might be enough to secure the narrative, considering that hasn't happened since Lidstrom (though Hughes and Makar probably would have done so if not for COVID).

I think Celebrini would absolutely have to outscore Hutson to have a shot IMO, I don't believe there are a lot of examples of forwards winning the Calder while losing the scoring race to a rookie defenseman. He he would probably need to cover a spread of at least 4-5 points. It helps that his pace is 10+ points ahead.

Michkov would have to go on a heater to get himself back in the race (which he's kind of due for) while the other two cool off. Even if he finishes with 28p in his last 28gp, he'd still only finish 62 points, so he'll need some help from Hutson and Celebrini. But he's probably at <1%, which is crazy considering how he was the front runner like 6 weeks ago.

It will be tough for Wolf to win it with a 60+ point dman and a 1OA center playing at a 70+ pace. He's on pace to play just 47 games. He'd probably have to start 20+ of their remaining 30 games and drag the Flames into the playoffs, and even then it might not be enough.

Jimmy Howard lost the Calder to Jeff Skinner's 63 point campaign despite going 37-15-10 with a 924 sv%. He was 8th in wins and 5th in save percentage.

Steve Mason is the only goalie to win it since the lockout, and that's only because no rookie scored more than 57 points that year.

WIth the way games are split between goalies these days, it's just a really tough trophy to win for them. But who knows, it's all narrative based in the end, and if his relative performance compared to Vladar gets enough noise, you never know.

With the Flames fighting for a playoff spot i think its quite reasonable to expect Wolf to play at least 20 of the 30 games remaining giving him 50 or so for the season. He may even play more. Hes likely to play the 3 remaining games before the 2 week break and after the break the Flames only have 3 BtB games. I can see a 22-8 game split between Wolf and Vladar.

 

[eojsmada]

Seems like all the skaters are hitting the wall. Wolf continues to put up impressive rookie numbers for a goalie.