The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Sabre Dance]

I don't know that, you don't know that, and the twins don't know that.

At this point, we all just guessing.

You can make projections. I base mine a lot on age. Defense takes time and all our best guys are still attempting to reach their potential.

 

[Gras]

The Skinner buy-out really only makes sense if you utilize the capspace and replace his offense in one way or another.
Simply substracting him from the roster doesn't improve the team, only Pegulas pockets. Then again, maybe that was the goal.

There were plenty of people on the addition by subtraction train.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’m also concerned though to be honest it is with all their centers. It feels like we are back to the end of the Darcy era and need someone to step up in the middle. Last season isn’t all due to Granato. Neither of the top two returning centers appeared ready for the year. They have serious questions to answer.

This is where Adams set Ruff up much better for the long haul. The team went from 4 legit top 6 centers to just Connolly and Roy, both injury prone. Which led to the reach for Leino.

Ruff has Thompson and Cozens, the latter arguably a better wing or Sam Bennett style 3C. But Krebs can be a 4C, and there are a slew of centers in the pipeline in Savoie, Ostlund, Helenius, and potentially Kulich.

I’m not really worried. Adams could get Zegras or even Roslovic as a stop gap until next season when the kids are more ready.

It’s also why I’m ok with trading Kulich (in a Tkachuk type of trade) or Rosen instead of the centers.

I also still think Savoie is a Point style center who will surprise.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement.

And this is an attempt to be *predictive*, so it should be looked at as purely entertainment value. Hockey analytics are constantly improving, but they're currently at the point where the results from looking backward have some pretty significant error bars ...trying to look forward is not going to produce anything remotely reliable.

(And the stuff that's publicly available is way behind the curve; anyone who's actually good at this is working for a team, not posting on a website named after a Magic The Gathering card).

If we had to pick a game predictive analytic hockey types have played.... it's almost certainly Magic The Gathering.

 

[Chainshot]

This is where Adams set Ruff up much better for the long haul. The team went from 4 legit top 6 centers to just Connolly and Roy, both injury prone. Which led to the reach for Leino.

Ruff has Thompson and Cozens, the latter arguably a better wing or Sam Bennett style 3C. But Krebs can be a 4C, and there are a slew of centers in the pipeline in Savoie, Ostlund, Helenius, and potentially Kulich.

I’m not really worried. Adams could get Zegras or even Roslovic as a stop gap until next season when the kids are more ready.

It’s also why I’m ok with trading Kulich (in a Tkachuk type of trade) or Rosen instead of the centers.

I also still think Savoie is a Point style center who will surprise.

Wish I was more optimistic about the slew of small pivots, but they don't have the power wingers to overcome all that small in the middle IMO.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

There were plenty of people on the addition by subtraction train.

Lafferty is better than Skinner. Sure. Zucker better. Double sure.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

So we don’t suck?

Well they may suck, it's hard to tell. You'd want to look at the GAR for the top 6 (or top 7) for each team. The tails on these sort of things can be pretty thin.

Buffalo from that stat has:
Dahlin - a mid 1D (16)
Power - a lower 1D (23)
Byram - a mid 4D (144)
Samuelsson - a mid 4D (147)
Clifton - 6.5D (205)
Jokiharju - 8D (250)

The difference in GAR between 1 and 16 is probably bigger than the difference between 147-250. So it's pretty hard to say definitive things about the group without knowing what the other teams have.

 

[Panthaz89]

Joker did very little wrong last year and is considered 250th? seems like terrible metrics to me.

 

[Fezzy126]

“We need forwards.”

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808252541937111155

Talk about a triggering post, this may win the award for worst analytics post of the year.

Let's look at something actually semi-useful:

Last year's xGAR/60 for defensemen, filtering out any guys that played under 50 minutes:

• Dahlin: 24th
• Bryson: 48th
• Samuelsson: 121st
• Power: 179th
• R Johnson: 203rd
• Byram: 215th
• Clifton: 227th
• Jokiharju: 230th

Never mind for a second that GAR and xGAR punishes players in defensive roles, or that it's not particularly useful in determining defensemen impact (FFS last year 3 of the top 4 dmen in xGAR were Vladislav Kolyachonok, Joel Hanley, and Spencer Stastney).

All that aside they have EH is "projecting" that all of our super young defensemen will get worse with another year of experience and better coaching, as well as better defensive forwards supporting them?

Glad I don't follow this dude...

 

[yasky]

^Its best not to think about it.

I’m of the camp that nobody else is getting signed as a free agent until a couple in-house contracts are taken care of first (UPL at the very least)

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Never mind Ruff... What about a full season of UPL playing like he did during the second half of last year? A healthy Thompson? A healthy Quinn? An actual grind/energy line that makes the team tougher to play against & makes other players play harder ? The addition of Byram for a full year? Improvement from an 18yo rookie Benson ? Other rookies possibly breaking into the team?

There's lots of reason to believe that this squad is better than last year's.

You’re right, they’re Stanley cup contenders

 

[StrompTroller]

You’re right, they’re Stanley cup contenders

nowhere close but its okay...we tried

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

.....holy christ I'm a moron. Thank you.

You’re a moron because you didn’t know EH stood for revolving hockey? I’d go easier on yourself lol

 

[Gras]

nowhere close but its okay...we tried

31 teams try every year

 

[Intermission]

The Sabres around the edges are patched up and don't need Band-Aids like Jack Roslovic, Daniel Sprong, Kevin Labanc, or Tyler Johnson.
It's got to come from within.
Thompson and Quinn being healthy is essential for the Buffalo Sabres vs. the world campaign.

Last hope for outside help if Konecny and the Flyers don't get closer to reaching an agreement in the next few weeks.

 

[StrompTroller]

31 teams try every year

set the bar low

 

[Zman5778]

You’re a moron because you didn’t know EH stood for revolving hockey? I’d go easier on yourself lol

I mean....once he mentioned it, it seemed plainly obvious.

 

[Gabrielor]

If we get to the weekend with nothing, I'm going to assume the summer is done.

 

[Gras]

If we get to the weekend with nothing, I'm going to assume the summer is done.

Theres still stuff to do with RFAs around the league, players could still shake free.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

If we get to the weekend with nothing, I'm going to assume the summer is done.

Once teams start signing RFA's I think we'll see some trades start happening. Teams like the Isles are close to the cap with RFA's to sign, Caps are already over, number of others will be pushing it as well.

 

[Bobby Bottle Service]

With Zemgod departing... Who is the longest tenured Sabre now?

Joker?
Bryson?

 

[Fjordy]

With Zemgod departing... Who is the longest tenured Sabre now?

Joker?
Bryson?

Dahlin if we take the NHL specifically

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I agree entirely but theres also reason for pessimism if we are essentially paying Zucker 8 mill this year (his salary plus the buy out price to replace Skinner) and that's our big splash. Making our pick instead of trading it to truly upgrade the team...etc etc. There's lots to be sour about but your post is spot on in what there is to be optimistic about.

I've consistently been against buying out Skinner as much as anyone has been on this forum. And i don't like signing Zucker (although we do need veteran leadership & he's only signed up for a year so i don't hate it).

I don't hate making the pick, especially if there were no players worth moving it for. Would you rather we traded the R1 instead of the R2 for Malenstyn? Besides... moving a Savoie/Kulich/Rosen/Ostlund always made more sense to me than trading this year's R1 & that still may happen.

There's far more to be positive about than be negative about imo. I get it because of what's happened over the last 13 or so years... But the majority of this fanbase will always prefer to focus on the negatives. It's also a reflection of how society is at the current time i guess...

 

[Rowley Birkin]

You’re right, they’re Stanley cup contenders

Lol. There is some middle ground between genuine contention & having absolutely no hope.

I think this squad is more than capable of making the playoffs & that is all I'm expecting. The ultimate goal is to win a cup - but breaking the streak would be such an important step towards eventually doing more.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Wish I was more optimistic about the slew of small pivots, but they don't have the power wingers to overcome all that small in the middle IMO.

The games changes. Everyone is going to try to be the Panthers and build that way. Everyone wanted to be the Kings, and then the Pens won back to back with a bunch of smaller forwards.