The Race for the Calder Trophy

[MNRube]

He's got so much talent he'd be in a scoring role on any team. Maybe a winger for some teams, like Edmonton for example, but he'd absolutely get minutes and opportunities on any team in the league.

Just so happens he's doing it on a team with the next best forward being Phillip Kurashev.

Well, yeah that is extremely obvious. Chicago is the only team in the NHL where he ends up as the only threat though. Which makes judging his current standing in the NHL very difficult.

 

[rynryn]

wish i knew how they compiled the honorable mentions in that player/front office poll.
I wouldn't call him a top ten D in the league yet (look at how some other players have slumped after their first years) but he's playing like one, which is quite a bit more remarkable than Bedard playing like an average first line center--which is about where he'd be at if he hadn't been injured and continued at his early season pace? More than enough to earn a Calder, that, but not as remarkable as Faber's performance. As Chicago fans have lamented, Bedard's situation IS handicapped quite a lot but they don't really take that into account in voting, I think.

 

[Rubi]

He's a defense first dman who is 10th in average ice time and 16th in defensemen scoring despite only just recently getting PP1 duty. I think you could absolutely make the case that he's a top 10 dman this year, he's absolutely carried Minnesota's defense.

If he was playing for a better team would he be 10th in average ice time or would he be carrying the team defense? I think not. Because of that I take those stats with a grain of salt. Better off quoting individual stats than team related ones.

 

[AKL]

I was not implying that Faber is, or isn't, a top 10 defenseman. But even the weeks leading up to Bedard's injury, he was leading the Calder race. If you want to say that Faber was actually a bit better at that time, fine. But that difference doesn't equate to one being top 10 in Norris voting and the other only being a 2C.

Faber is 16th in scoring among defenseman and defense is widely regarded as his strength (meaning higher scoring defensemen could be worse defensively and thus worse overall)

Bedard is 32nd among centers in points per game and defense is widely regarded as not his strength (meaning lower scoring centers could be better defensively and thus better overall)

There's certainly a conversation to be had about it, it's not something you can brush off as easily as you want to brush it off.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If he was playing for a better team would he be 10th in average ice time or would he be carrying the team defense? I think not. Because of that I take those stats with a grain of salt.

Why wouldn't he be? He's an excellent defenseman, and the biggest reason why the Wild are still remotely in the playoff hunt. Regardless, you could say that about a lot of guys who get lots of ice time. The fact of the matter is he's getting extremely difficult deployments and is still succeeding. How many shut down defenseman are in the top 20 in D scoring?

Better off quoting individual stats than team related ones.

I didn't realize scoring and TOI were team statistics.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Faber is 16th in scoring among defenseman and defense is widely regarded as his strength (meaning higher scoring defensemen could be worse defensively and thus worse overall)

Bedard is 32nd among centers in points per game and defense is widely regarded as not his strength (meaning lower scoring centers could be better defensively and thus better overall)

There's certainly a conversation to be had about it, it's not something you can brush off as easily as you want to brush it off.

He's an 18yo who is playing on a team that quite literally does not feature another top 6 player.

At the time he was injured, he was at 0.89ppg. Kurashev was 2nd on the team with 0.69 (nice). Jason Dickinson was 3rd with 0.49.

Bedard's PPG is only as low as it is because he's playing with jack f***ing squat. How do some of you not understand this? Especially you Wild fans; we're division foes, we see each other a lot. So how can you not take into account the roster that he has to play alongside?

 

[MuckOG]

He's an 18yo who is playing on a team that quite literally does not feature another top 6 player.

At the time he was injured, he was at 0.89ppg. Kurashev was 2nd on the team with 0.69 (nice). Jason Dickinson was 3rd with 0.49.

Bedard's PPG is only as low as it is because he's playing with jack f***ing squat. How do some of you not understand this? Especially you Wild fans; we're division foes, we see each other a lot. So how can you not take into account the roster that he has to play alongside?

I certainly take into account Bedard's teammates. I think he's got a great career ahead of him. And if he didnt get injured, he would be the leading contender for the Calder.

I also think that Faber is having a special season. He's on pace to crack the 50 pt mark, something that only 3 defensemen have accomplished in their rookie season over the past 30+ years. He's a bona-fide 1D, who is helping to carry the Wild into a possible playoff spot, and unless the wheels fall off over the next month and a half (which is possible), it's looking like a Calder season for him.

In the end, it really doesn't matter that much. Both players have a great future in front of them.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's an 18yo who is playing on a team that quite literally does not feature another top 6 player.

At the time he was injured, he was at 0.89ppg. Kurashev was 2nd on the team with 0.69 (nice). Jason Dickinson was 3rd with 0.49.

Bedard's PPG is only as low as it is because he's playing with jack f***ing squat. How do some of you not understand this? Especially you Wild fans; we're division foes, we see each other a lot. So how can you not take into account the roster that he has to play alongside?

I think everybody understands it. Some probably don't want to give him extra credit for the franchise tearing itself down to get him.

I have it as even right now, because of the missed time, and we'll see how he scores when he comes back.

 

[AKL]

He's an 18yo who is playing on a team that quite literally does not feature another top 6 player.

At the time he was injured, he was at 0.89ppg. Kurashev was 2nd on the team with 0.69 (nice). Jason Dickinson was 3rd with 0.49.

Bedard's PPG is only as low as it is because he's playing with jack f***ing squat. How do some of you not understand this? Especially you Wild fans; we're division foes, we see each other a lot. So how can you not take into account the roster that he has to play alongside?

Oh it's understood that the Hawks suck, I'm just not interested in pretending like that gives him bonus points. I guess if he loses the Calder we can blame the Hawks front office for it? But I wouldn't be giving him the trophy by default just because the assumption is he'd produce better with better teammates.

Can only judge the player by what he's done, not what we think he might have done under ideal circumstances.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I think everybody understands it. Some probably don't want to give him extra credit for the franchise tearing itself down to get him.

I have it as even right now, because of the missed time, and we'll see how he scores when he comes back.

Kinda where I'm at. Bedard probably wins if he plays 82 games, but his injury and Faber's performance complicates things.

I'll be just fine if Faber gets it. He's more deserving than a lot of recent Calder winners.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

He's an 18yo who is playing on a team that quite literally does not feature another top 6 player.

At the time he was injured, he was at 0.89ppg. Kurashev was 2nd on the team with 0.69 (nice). Jason Dickinson was 3rd with 0.49.

Bedard's PPG is only as low as it is because he's playing with jack f***ing squat. How do some of you not understand this? Especially you Wild fans; we're division foes, we see each other a lot. So how can you not take into account the roster that he has to play alongside?

I doubt that's why anyone is arguing for Faber. Top picks tend to play on bad teams. Both are having great rookie years.

 

[malcb33]

I doubt that's why anyone is arguing for Faber. Top picks tend to play on bad teams. Both are having great rookie years.

There are bad teams and then there are the Blackhawks and Sharks.

Those teams aren't just bad they are purposely hollowed out and designed to be at the bottom of the league for the next few years, there is a difference IMO and I have no horse in this race.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

There are bad teams and then there are the Blackhawks and Sharks.

Those teams aren't just bad they are purposely hollowed out and designed to be at the bottom of the league for the next few years, there is a difference IMO and I have no horse in this race.

I watched the Panthers in the 00s. We had guys like Byron Ritchie and Brett McLean playing top 6 minutes.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I doubt that's why anyone is arguing for Faber. Top picks tend to play on bad teams. Both are having great rookie years.

That post was in response to a comment about how Bedard is 32nd in points per game among centers. I was comparing him to other centers in the league, not other top picks playing their rookie season.

 

[Mav3rick07]

Faber is 16th in scoring among defenseman and defense is widely regarded as his strength (meaning higher scoring defensemen could be worse defensively and thus worse overall)

Bedard is 32nd among centers in points per game and defense is widely regarded as not his strength (meaning lower scoring centers could be better defensively and thus better overall)

There's certainly a conversation to be had about it, it's not something you can brush off as easily as you want to brush it off.

That's not a fair measurement because there's almost twice as many forwards as there are defenceman in the NHL. Much easier to crack the top 20 as a d-man.

 

[AKL]

That's not a fair measurement because there's almost twice as many forwards as there are defenceman in the NHL. Much easier to crack the top 20 as a d-man.

Virtually every team in the league has more defensemen than centers.

 

[Mav3rick07]

Virtually every team in the league has more defensemen than centers.

My bad, I thought you ranked him in terms of forwards, not centers.

I retract my previous comment from the said argument.

 

[TaLoN]

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/minnesota-wild/news/faber-deserves-the-calder-and-its-not-even-close

What Wild defenseman Brock Faber has done this year in his rookie season is incredible and to be frank, he should win the Calder Trophy and it shouldn't be up for discussion.

Faber, 21, has four goals and 29 assists this season for 33 points in 52 games. He is on pace for six goals and 46 assists for 52 points this season. There is only one active defenseman in the NHL who had more points in his rookie season. Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks had 45 assists and 53 points in the 2019-20 season.

If he finished with 46 assists, Faber would rank eighth in NHL history for most assists by a defenseman in their rookie season. Phil Housley who is currently in the Hall of Fame had 47 assists in his rookie season. Housley finished with 338 goals, 894 assists, and 1,232 points in 1,495 career games.

Since January 6th, Faber has two goals and 17 points and ranks second among all defensemen in that category. Hughes has 19—just more of a reason why Faber should win the Calder Trophy.

Faber ranks 14th in the NHL in GAR, according to Evolving Hockey, this season and is tied for eighth in WAR among all defensemen in the NHL. GAR stands for Goals Above Replacement and is a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number.

WAR is Wins Above Replacement and is a metric that attempts to express how much value (or wins) each player contributed to their team's success, expressed as a single number. Faber's GAR and WAR rank ahead of Josi, Adam Fox, Kris Letang, Josh Morrissey, and Devon Toews to name a few.

Faber's GAR and WAR trails only Ottawa's Ridley Greig and Calgary's Connor Zary for the highest in the NHL amongst all rookies. Greig has played 38 games this year with an average time on ice of 14:38. Zary has played 43 games and averages 15:26. Faber has played 52 games and averages 24:59.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That post was in response to a comment about how Bedard is 32nd in points per game among centers. I was comparing him to other centers in the league, not other top picks playing their rookie season.

I think offensively, Bedard is probably a top 15 center, but he might be the worst defensive center in the league. But that's not all his fault - he's 18 years old and undersized. It's a tough league for young centers. He'll get bigger and stronger which should help a bit. And more experience should help with his in zone positioning and decision making in high risk areas, both of which are pretty big gaps for him. These are all things that should improve as he matures.

The biggest gap IMO is that, at times, his defensive effort has just not been where it needs to be, and that's something he can control. There's no excuse for not giving 100% on both sides of the puck.

I would expect him to be a top 10 center leaguewide by the end of next year, but right now he's probably around 30.

 

[Rubi]

Sounds promising

 

[CallMeShaft]

itshappening.gif

 

[Hawkaholic]

but he might be the worst defensive center in the league.

I don't get why people think this.

 

[AKL]

I don't get why people think this.

Because there are stats that back up how bad he is defensively

This article is from yesterday

We can scroll to the Calder section

*A note about the chart from the author before we go further

I’m still working on adjusting for usage better and hopefully, that will be ready in time for the next awards watch. It will certainly make Connor Bedard look better than he is here, but it still may not be enough of an adjustment to put him right at the top.

Diving right in

Bedard having the best points-per-game rate for a rookie remains impressive, and is doubly so given he has the worst offensive teammate quality of any player in the league. It all depends on how much we should care about his defensive game. While it’s notable that the Blackhawks haven’t been able to buy a goal since Bedard’s injury (1.42 goals per 60 since, 2.3 goals per 60 before), it’s also true that their defense has actually improved by an even larger margin (2.76 goals against per 60 since, 3.99 goals against per 60 before). At five-on-five, their expected goals percentage is up five points since Bedard’s injury.

Looking at his All Three Zones possession-driving ability shows Bedard has all the makings of a superstar with how he creates in the offensive zone and how efficient he is moving the puck in transition. But one thing he is not is involved in the defensive zone. It’s a revelation brought about by this exploration into Matty Beniers’ Selke potential and one that might answer why the Blackhawks allow so many chances with Bedard on the ice. He’s already great at turning pucks into exits and exiting cleanly — he just doesn’t do it often at all. His defensive zone workload shows a center who isn’t helping his defenders out nearly enough.

And I'm sure others can find other sources that confirm that he's not good defensively, but that's as far as I'm going.

 

[CallMeShaft]

If some advanced stats tell you Bedard has only been the 10th best rookie this season, then that seems like good reason to not put all your trust into advanced stats.

 

[AKL]

And in fairness, we can also talk about the Faber points from that article

There's a reason some people have noticed more mistakes from Faber lately

As for the other rookies, it’s funny that Brock Faber’s reputation has surged once he started putting some numbers on the board (14 points in 14 games since the last awards watch) despite the rest of his game falling apart. Faber is now on pace for 52 points and leads all rookie defensemen in scoring, but his eye-popping on-ice numbers have come back down to earth a bit over the last month. He still carries strong relative metrics at both ends of the ice in a tough role which is why he leads all rookies in Net Rating. But as he’s been placed in a larger role with bigger minutes while being tasked with providing more offense, his defensive numbers have taken a hit.

Faber is still graded as the most valuable rookie for good reason. He has a strong body of work overall that can mitigate some defensive weaknesses shown over the last month as his role changed. He’s still working on finding the right balance to his game to be a top dog at both ends of the ice, but it’s clear the potential here is enormous.

So defensively he's slowed down in the last month and a half, but his offensive surge has more than made up the difference. Spurgeon and Brodin missing significant time is a double edged sword. He's being asked to do more with less, some parts of his game are struggling a bit, some are flourishing, overall he's still a very strong player all around.

If some advanced stats tell you Bedard has only been the 10th best rookie this season, then that seems like good reason to not put all your trust into advanced stats.

Did you just look at the picture and think "I gotcha now"? Cause you clearly didn't read anything after that. No one called him the 10th best rookie.