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The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

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Current PointsGames RemainingPossible PointsRWROWCommon Games
Wild85121093237vs C, vs V
Flames77131032630vs U, vs W
Blues81101012733vs U
Canucks76121002530vs W
Utah7512992431vs C, vs B

More pressure on the Flames to have to win their games in hand. Canucks, Wild and Utah are in action tomorrow. If Calgary has a regulation loss before the Blues lose, St Louis will control their own destiny. (EDIT - that's not QUITE true, but really close.)
 
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12-2-2 since the 4 Nations break. That's an .813 points percentage. Absolutely incredible run, one that includes some bona fide good teams too. In the last week, we've moved from the easiest SOS remaining to the 14th hardest. But beating the teams we should is quite refreshing considering teams past have often shit the bed in these stretches.

Money Puck also has our chance of making the playoffs up to 52.7%. I think at one point a few weeks ago we were in the teens.
 
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ToastedRavioli said:
A lot has been said about how easy our schedule is compared to the other wild card teams, but that was heavily weighted by this prior week. That was really the only week where there is a big disparity in opponents faced. The Blues no longer have the easiest schedule remaining. We have the 18th hardest now. Calgary and Utah have the 16th and 17th hardest. Our strength of schedule is no longer a meaningful aspect of this playoff race. Calgary, and to a lesser extent Vancouver and Utah, did exactly what they needed to do and weathered the storm of hard opponents.
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I don't think strength of schedule is the only thing that matters when looking at remaining schedules.

I'd take the spacing of our schedule over Calgary's. We're done with back to backs and we are also done with those stretches where you have 3+ days off and can build some rust. From here on out, we play every other night, with the exception of 3 instances where we have 2 days off. To compare, the Flames are currently in their last 2 day break. Starting tomorrow, they play every other night until the last day of the season, with the only exception being a road back-to-back. Utah has two more stretches of 2 days off, but they also have 2 more sets of road back-to-backs. Vancouver has two more 2 day breaks, but they also have a back-to-back in there (along with a harder strength of schedule).

One benefit to those teams having games in hand is that they have already burned through some 'extra' days off and are going to have less recovery time between games. And Calgary still has to actually win those games in hand for them to be beneficial. They need to either go 2-1 (both regulation wins) or 2-0-1 over those 3 games in hand to still control their own destiny. An OT win, a regulation win, and a regulation loss would leave them tied with us in points and regulation wins, but then we would still control the ROW tiebreaker. Games in hand are nice, but they are far from a lock to make up the needed ground in those games in hand.

FWIW, I wouldn't say that Calgary weathered the storm of hard opponents. They snagged 6 of 8 possible points this week, losing in regulation to the Leafs (9th in the NHL) and then beating the mediocre NYC trio (14th, 20th, and 21st in the NHL). It was a pretty middling strength of schedule and over the same week we went 4-0, so we gained 2 points worth of ground on them. Our remaining strength of schedule got harder, but I don't think theirs got easier. It's the next 4 games where they have to weather the storm. They have an easy matchup against the Kraken, but then they play three top 10 teams (3rd place Dallas, 10th place Edmonton, and 8th place Colorado). While we don't have another easy week, Montreal, Nashville, and Colorado isn't bad. This week is one of their games in hand, so they need to earn 2 more points than us to 'weather the storm.'

Obviously it was big for Calgary to win 3 in a row, but they went 0-2-1 right before then and lost ground to us again last week.
 
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Brian39 said:
It's the next 4 games where they have to weather the storm. They have an easy matchup against the Kraken, but then they play three top 10 teams (3rd place Dallas, 10th place Edmonton, and 8th place Colorado). While we don't have another easy week, Montreal, Nashville, and Colorado isn't bad. This week is one of their games in hand, so they need to earn 2 more points than us to 'weather the storm.'
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I think you hit the nail on the head at the end of your comment. These next four, both us and Calgary may well decide this race. While EDM may be without McDavid/Drai, that is a tough 3 game stretch for them after Seattle. We also have 3 tough games this week, as even though we've handled NSH, they aren't going to be easy to beat a 3rd time in a week, and MTL is playing some damn good hockey.

If somehow we can go 2-1 and they go 1-3 or even 2-2, then we will be in a much better position. We'd have either a 4 or 6 point lead and they would be down to 2 games in hand. From there, the number of games left is shrinking, although CGY has a much easier last 8 than we do.
 
Brian39 said:
I don't think strength of schedule is the only thing that matters when looking at remaining schedules.

I'd take the spacing of our schedule over Calgary's. We're done with back to backs and we are also done with those stretches where you have 3+ days off and can build some rust. From here on out, we play every other night, with the exception of 3 instances where we have 2 days off. To compare, the Flames are currently in their last 2 day break. Starting tomorrow, they play every other night until the last day of the season, with the only exception being a road back-to-back. Utah has two more stretches of 2 days off, but they also have 2 more sets of road back-to-backs. Vancouver has two more 2 day breaks, but they also have a back-to-back in there (along with a harder strength of schedule).

One benefit to those teams having games in hand is that they have already burned through some 'extra' days off and are going to have less recovery time between games. And Calgary still has to actually win those games in hand for them to be beneficial. They need to either go 2-1 (both regulation wins) or 2-0-1 over those 3 games in hand to still control their own destiny. An OT win, a regulation win, and a regulation loss would leave them tied with us in points and regulation wins, but then we would still control the ROW tiebreaker. Games in hand are nice, but they are far from a lock to make up the needed ground in those games in hand.

FWIW, I wouldn't say that Calgary weathered the storm of hard opponents. They snagged 6 of 8 possible points this week, losing in regulation to the Leafs (9th in the NHL) and then beating the mediocre NYC trio (14th, 20th, and 21st in the NHL). It was a pretty middling strength of schedule and over the same week we went 4-0, so we gained 2 points worth of ground on them. Our remaining strength of schedule got harder, but I don't think theirs got easier. It's the next 4 games where they have to weather the storm. They have an easy matchup against the Kraken, but then they play three top 10 teams (3rd place Dallas, 10th place Edmonton, and 8th place Colorado). While we don't have another easy week, Montreal, Nashville, and Colorado isn't bad. This week is one of their games in hand, so they need to earn 2 more points than us to 'weather the storm.'

Obviously it was big for Calgary to win 3 in a row, but they went 0-2-1 right before then and lost ground to us again last week.
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I agree with this. Calgary has to make up three games in the next four weeks compared to us. Travel and rest are huge at this point of the year, with everyone ramping up the intensity as the playoffs are around the corner. This week will tell us a lot about where we stand. They have a murder's row of Dallas/Edmonton/Colorado, whereas we play Montreal/Nashville/Colorado. They also have to squeeze in a game against Seattle, who are currently playing fairly well.

It's tough that we don't control our own destiny, but if we keep winning, I think we're going to be just fine. Calgary isn't good, they have been carried hard by their goaltending all year. Sucks that the NY teams couldn't help us a bit more, but they've been ass all year, with the exception of Jersey, and they 100% choked that game away. Happens.
 
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Brian39 said:
I don't think strength of schedule is the only thing that matters when looking at remaining schedules.

I'd take the spacing of our schedule over Calgary's. We're done with back to backs and we are also done with those stretches where you have 3+ days off and can build some rust. From here on out, we play every other night, with the exception of 3 instances where we have 2 days off. To compare, the Flames are currently in their last 2 day break. Starting tomorrow, they play every other night until the last day of the season, with the only exception being a road back-to-back. Utah has two more stretches of 2 days off, but they also have 2 more sets of road back-to-backs. Vancouver has two more 2 day breaks, but they also have a back-to-back in there (along with a harder strength of schedule).

One benefit to those teams having games in hand is that they have already burned through some 'extra' days off and are going to have less recovery time between games. And Calgary still has to actually win those games in hand for them to be beneficial. They need to either go 2-1 (both regulation wins) or 2-0-1 over those 3 games in hand to still control their own destiny. An OT win, a regulation win, and a regulation loss would leave them tied with us in points and regulation wins, but then we would still control the ROW tiebreaker. Games in hand are nice, but they are far from a lock to make up the needed ground in those games in hand.

FWIW, I wouldn't say that Calgary weathered the storm of hard opponents. They snagged 6 of 8 possible points this week, losing in regulation to the Leafs (9th in the NHL) and then beating the mediocre NYC trio (14th, 20th, and 21st in the NHL). It was a pretty middling strength of schedule and over the same week we went 4-0, so we gained 2 points worth of ground on them. Our remaining strength of schedule got harder, but I don't think theirs got easier. It's the next 4 games where they have to weather the storm. They have an easy matchup against the Kraken, but then they play three top 10 teams (3rd place Dallas, 10th place Edmonton, and 8th place Colorado). While we don't have another easy week, Montreal, Nashville, and Colorado isn't bad. This week is one of their games in hand, so they need to earn 2 more points than us to 'weather the storm.'

Obviously it was big for Calgary to win 3 in a row, but they went 0-2-1 right before then and lost ground to us again last week.
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The only thing I really see concerning with Calgary’s schedule is the last two games. There’s a big chance LA and Vegas are resting guys for the playoffs for those games. The game has to be played so can’t count as a win for the Flames but if I was a betting man in Vegas I would be betting on Calgary. Especially if us and Calgary are still close at that point.

Hopefully the Blues are far enough ahead at that point that it won’t matter but if it comes down to that last week it will be pins and needles around here.
 
A Real Barn Burner said:
The only thing I really see concerning with Calgary’s schedule is the last two games. There’s a big chance LA and Vegas are resting guys for the playoffs for those games. The game has to be played so can’t count as a win for the Flames but if I was a betting man in Vegas I would be betting on Calgary. Especially if us and Calgary are still close at that point.

Hopefully the Blues are far enough ahead at that point that it won’t matter but if it comes down to that last week it will be pins and needles around here.
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I think there is a decent chance that those games won't be meaningless for those teams.

Vegas has another game the day after playing Calgary, so they would have to clinch the 1 seed in game 79 to make it meaningless. They have 3 days between the Calgary game and the opening night of playoffs and any guy they rest in both games would have a full week off before playoffs. I'd wager that game 82 against Vancouver will be their 'rest everyone' game.

The LA game is the last game of the season for both teams, but who knows whether LA will be locked into a spot by then. They are currently 5 points back of Vegas (with a game in hand) and tied in points with Edmonton. I think there is a decent chance that they will still be playing for home ice in that game (with a small chance that they actually are playing to avoid Edmonton in round 1). Edmonton will be done the night before, so they very well could be facing a 'win and we're at home, lose and we start in Edmonton' situation for that game.

FWIW, our end of the season is equally nice. Our 2nd to last game of the year is against the Kraken, who will be mathematically eliminated by then. Our last game of the year is at home vs Utah in their last game of the season. We are their 3rd game of a 4 day road trip where they go Dallas-Nashville-St. Louis. Their day off will be either in Dallas or Nashville and I expect that group to be hitting the bars one last time (I'm assuming that they will be eliminated by then).
 
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Stelmacki said:
It’s time to add Minnesota to our watchlist. They play Dallas, Vegas (b2b) and then Washington this week.
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I'm not really adding them to our watchlist unless/until they actually falter. They can go 1-3-1 to close out March and would still be a point ahead of us in the standings and control tiebreaker even if we went 3-0 to close out the month. That would erase their 'games in hand' advantage and would get me ready to really start watching them. They can go 2-3-0 to close out March and still be 4 points ahead of us if we "only" go 2-1 and then their April schedule is manageable. They beat the Kings last week and the Avs a couple weeks ago. They are running on fumes, but they are still playing well enough that they are a foregone conclusion to go below .500 in these next 5 games.

I'll keep an eye on them tonight because there aren't many other games, but tomorrow all non-Blues viewing for me will be Ovi's goal chase and Calgary.
 
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Brian39 said:


That's the next 4 games without Petey and Hoglander. Their lineup looks brutal when you remove the two of them. Hopefully that is the final nail and we can stop worrying about them.
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I’m still amazed at the Blues recent success without Parayko. Our team defense has really stepped up. Will be curious to see if the Nucks have others step up in a similar manner with those players out.
 
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