OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

[xlm34]

This is pure profile reading but Porter and Addison were both consensus top-15 picks prior to the combine. Porter's lack of long speed was known. I think Addison was expected to do better but not a ton. They were also consensus top-3 in their position for premium positions.

Wait and see but I'm not optimistic on them dropping a ton. Who's rising anyway? Richardson was going before 17 in a ton of mocks already. Smith ran fantastic times for an edge rusher, but is still real small for one. Ditto Kancey for a DL. Campbell did awesome in everything other than the 40, but I presume that only takes him from 2nd/3rd to late 1st/2nd? Some of the CBs ran big times, but I think Banks is the only one who's rising through the first.

Again, wait and see... and maybe I'm stupid as this is the first I've followed a draft... but I'm not sure I see big drops ahead.

I guess we’ll see if the WR market really has gotten as crazy as it’s looked. Addison would be a pretty massive outlier to go in the top 15. Sub 6 foot, sub 175 guys with that combine performance I don’t think have ever gone round 1 let alone top 15.

I don’t think anyone expected him to be a burner because that isn’t who he is on tape, but I think people will still be disappointed by what he showed.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Based on what?

The Athletic and Pro Football Network consensus big boards both feature 3 WRs in the top 20 overall, and no more guys until the 30s. That's a very clear top 3 then other guys. Addison is one of the former - 11th overall in Athletic, 14th in PFN - not the latter.

You got another source for what the consensus public scouting opinion looks like, great, lets hear it. But that's what the first (and currently) only two I can find say.



edit: Also the fact we can - at the moment - see a clear top 3 lets us talk about what a GM who needs a WR might do instead of Addison.

Take Johnston first? Sure. Already frequently called.

Take Smith-Njigba before Addison? It's pretty much the same strengths and problems. Smooth productive route runner who mightn't thrive outside and lacks elite athleticism. Smith-Njigba is bigger, but doesn't show the same change of pace and has had hamstring issues.

After those guys...

Hyatt? Well, he's different as a speed demon, although a 4.4 at combine won't help him like the 4.29 he was targetting. Otherwise, a raw stringbean. Downs? A 5'8" probably slot only guy with drop issues sound like Addison, only more explosive and probably better at YAC. Flowers is pretty similar except he's an inch taller. Rice has size and athleticism, but is raw.

Addison probably isn't getting pushed much down the WR rankings. I saw some updated odds on first WR to be picked and he's now behind JSN, but still top three. Maybe teams don't take WRs early this class... but we'll see.

Your right some had him going top 15 before yesterday which to me is absolutely crazy he put up similar numbers as juju in college. I personally think Flowers Mimms Smith Jefferson are better and drafting Downs or Washington in round 3 gives us better value

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

This is our Creed Humphrey.

Joe Tippmann Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

It may drop him, but Addison is like AB. Their timed speed and play speed are two totally different things. Claypool was opposite. That's the crazy thing about wideouts...if they are true technicians, their size and speed almost don't matter because they can get so open so quickly.

The issue I have with Addison is drops, and that will define his career, much like it has for DJ thus far.

AB had some crazy low RAS (4.3?), while Claypool was off the charts with 9.3.

So can’t always go by RAS, but when you are avg height, a buck 70, then put up a bad vert and ok 40, your RAS is going to blow.

I think he’s going to be a hell of a flanker, just hoping his meh combine gives the Steelers a shot mid second.

I suspect a receiver needy team like the Ravens might covet Flowers over Addison now.

I don’t think Steelers will sniff around WR until the third round though… maybe a guy like Downs if he’s still there, but he’s a lot like Austin III.

Hard to pinpoint what they are thinking about their WR group to be honest.

 

[td_ice]

Listeining to the FAN, I know Poni's coveted guy is OT Pete Skoronski. Definitely would love to see our OL fortified. Whether Skoronski is the guy, I have no idea.

What do you guys think of him at 17?

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Listeining to the FAN, I know Poni's coveted guy is OT Pete Skoronski. Definitely would love to see our OL fortified. Whether Skoronski is the guy, I have no idea.

What do you guys think of him at 17?

I’m confident he will be the first OT off the board, despite the arm length concerns.

If he’s there at 17 we should all be breakdancing.

 

[td_ice]

I’m confident he will be the first OT off the board, despite the arm length concerns.

If he’s there at 17 we should all be breakdancing.

Uh yes, I've heard of the short arm disease that he may have, haha. Reminiscent of Kenny "small hands" Pickett stories.

 

[Peat]

I guess we’ll see if the WR market really has gotten as crazy as it’s looked. Addison would be a pretty massive outlier to go in the top 15. Sub 6 foot, sub 175 guys with that combine performance I don’t think have ever gone round 1 let alone top 15.

I don’t think anyone expected him to be a burner because that isn’t who he is on tape, but I think people will still be disappointed by what he showed.

I hear that but at the same time, it's not like small meh athletes haven't succeeded pretty big in the NFL as WRs. Addison has the tape to show he can be one of them, Them taking Addison first round wouldn't be a gamble on a player type that's never made it before, it'd be them gambling on him being AB-lite without the madness or DJ without the focus lapses (and yeah, I know he's got focus drops on his resume too, but so do a lot of guys this draft),

I'm not gonna be surprised if he drops like you guys are predicting, but I'm not going to be surprised if he doesn't either. Not a shortage of examples of NFL teams ignoring measurement shortcomings early in the draft recently either.

Listeining to the FAN, I know Poni's coveted guy is OT Pete Skoronski. Definitely would love to see our OL fortified. Whether Skoronski is the guy, I have no idea.

What do you guys think of him at 17?

Would be delighted.

 

[td_ice]

I hear that but at the same time, it's not like small meh athletes haven't succeeded pretty big in the NFL as WRs. Addison has the tape to show he can be one of them, Them taking Addison first round wouldn't be a gamble on a player type that's never made it before, it'd be them gambling on him being AB-lite without the madness or DJ without the focus lapses (and yeah, I know he's got focus drops on his resume too, but so do a lot of guys this draft),

I'm not gonna be surprised if he drops like you guys are predicting, but I'm not going to be surprised if he doesn't either. Not a shortage of examples of NFL teams ignoring measurement shortcomings early in the draft recently either.



Would be delighted.

Yeah, I think teams realizing "football speed" and timed speed can be a tricky thing. As the first isn't as measurable, and the latter isn't a fail safe approach.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Uh yes, I've heard of the short arm disease that he may have, haha. Reminiscent of Kenny "small hands" Pickett stories.

Exact scenario happened with Slater (slipped because of arm length silliness) and now he’s the best young LT in the league.

Pretty sure Kahn will have to move up if he wants him.

But as I’ve written, after watching all of KP’s senior year snaps last year at this time, I thought he was for sure a top ten pick.

Teams do stupid shit when it comes to measurables all the time.

By either moving up or staying put I’m 99% sure their guy will be one of these six:

Skoronski
P Johnson
B Jones
D Witherspoon
C Gonzalez
Porter

I’d be stoked as hell over any of the first four.

I’d be pretty happy about Gonzalez… less than enthusiastic about Porter.

Porter’s lack of playmaking skills concern me. He’s had one pick, one fumble recovery and zero FF in his college career.

Could likely be me nitpicking, but it’s hard to overlook, especially when looking at a guy like Witherspoon who’s relentless as hell and accounted for 9 turnovers.

AFC is a massive arms race and you need guys who can get the ball back in your O’s hands.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

JSN or Addison’s tape far exceed anyone else’s at WR but neither are can’t miss. Just an exceptionally weak WR season.

BTW there are a couple positions where RAS is a massive indicator of success, others where it hardly matters. I believe IOL is one that it is a predictor but will have to dig up the tweets.

 

[Peat]

Isn't part of Porter's low production numbers getting targeted an insanely low number of times?

 

[xlm34]

JSN or Addison’s tape far exceed anyone else’s at WR but neither are can’t miss. Just an exceptionally weak WR season.

BTW there are a couple positions where RAS is a massive indicator of success, others where it hardly matters. I believe IOL is one that it is a predictor but will have to dig up the tweets.

I think it was this thread that does a good job going through it:

 

[JTG]

I'd let Gentry walk and try to grab one of these TE's. The value will be insane. I think the bang for our buck is at TE instead of WR.

Brian Branch didn't do himself any favors working out at the combine. Could definitely slip to 17 and would be an awesome nickle corner for us.

I think Mazi Smith should be our pick if he's there at 32. Also love Ji'Ayir Brown S from PSU. He has a throwback feel as a S where he has some swagger to him and he loves to lay the lumber. Also many reports have said how he is a team leader and motivator. We could use some of that swagger that we haven't had since Porter left.

AB had some crazy low RAS (4.3?), while Claypool was off the charts with 9.3.

So can’t always go by RAS, but when you are avg height, a buck 70, then put up a bad vert and ok 40, your RAS is going to blow.

I think he’s going to be a hell of a flanker, just hoping his meh combine gives the Steelers a shot mid second.

I suspect a receiver needy team like the Ravens might covet Flowers over Addison now.

I don’t think Steelers will sniff around WR until the third round though… maybe a guy like Downs if he’s still there, but he’s a lot like Austin III.

Hard to pinpoint what they are thinking about their WR group to be honest.

My gut says they find a way to add Addison, even if they have to sacrifice from next year's draft. I don't agree with it, but I think it's going to happen.

I have had my eye on Flowers for years. He's absolutely electric with the ball in his hands and he always stood out to me when I watched BC games. He'd actually be a really good fit in Baltimore.

Listeining to the FAN, I know Poni's coveted guy is OT Pete Skoronski. Definitely would love to see our OL fortified. Whether Skoronski is the guy, I have no idea.

What do you guys think of him at 17?

Skoronski is probably the most technically sound LT to come out in years. He will probably be a really good LT, but the thing with him is, if he struggles at LT, the consensus is that he's a Pro Bowl G from the hop. Very low risk prospect.

Isn't part of Porter's low production numbers getting targeted an insanely low number of times?

Yes.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think it was this thread that does a good job going through it:

Yes! Great find

 

[Peat]

This thread is interesting on the whole "How much does RAS matter" stuff too

RAS Comparisons

With the combine around the corner, we are about to have an abundance of athletic testing data. To understand how much that matters, it's helpful to compare results with current NFL players. The RAS website does some of this, but I wanted to be more specific. So the point is to take positions...

www.packerforum.com

There's definitely a breed of route runner that can be very successful as an unimpressive athlete.

 

[JTG]

I think RAS is silly.

 

[JTG]

Broderick Jones is a specimen. He's absolutely chiseled for a tackle.

The first thing an NFL team is going to do with Dawand Jones is make him drop 40 pounds. He could be incredible if they can manage to get his weight down.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Exact scenario happened with Slater (slipped because of arm length silliness) and now he’s the best young LT in the league.

Pretty sure Kahn will have to move up if he wants him.

But as I’ve written, after watching all of KP’s senior year snaps last year at this time, I thought he was for sure a top ten pick.

Teams do stupid shit when it comes to measurables all the time.

By either moving up or staying put I’m 99% sure their guy will be one of these six:

Skoronski
P Johnson
B Jones
D Witherspoon
C Gonzalez
Porter

I’d be stoked as hell over any of the first four.

I’d be pretty happy about Gonzalez… less than enthusiastic about Porter.

Porter’s lack of playmaking skills concern me. He’s had one pick, one fumble recovery and zero FF in his college career.

Could likely be me nitpicking, but it’s hard to overlook, especially when looking at a guy like Witherspoon who’s relentless as hell and accounted for 9 turnovers.

AFC is a massive arms race and you need guys who can get the ball back in your O’s hands.

Part of porters int problem is he was only thrown at 30 times last year and 16 were in the first game, he knovked down 6 of those 16 attempts, one beinng a dropped pick 6.

Over the last 9 games he played he was only thrown at 14 times.

Per game he averaged 3 targets, 1.5 receptions, 14.8 yards and 1 pass defended and 0 tds given up.

There is legitimacy to know whether he can create turnovers because he hasnt done it. But at least as far as college goes he is as lock down as it gets.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

RAS is controversial, some people will write a full dictation on why it’s stupid, etc

I tend to agree, but ultimately the people making the draft decisions do put weight behind it.

Which is why I think Addison will drop now.

Part of porters int problem is he was only thrown at 30 times last year and 16 were in the first game, he knovked down 6 of those 16 attempts, one beinng a dropped pick 6.

Over the last 9 games he played he was only thrown at 14 times.

Per game he averaged 3 targets, 1.5 receptions, 14.8 yards and 1 pass defended and 0 tds given up.

There is legitimacy to know whether he can create turnovers because he hasnt done it. But at least as far as college goes he is as lock down as it gets.

I know Porter is well thought of by some fans/pundits.

I’m just much more partial to Witherspoon and think he’s CB1 in this draft.

I rarely bitch about a pick so if they take Porter cool, but I definitely have a different preference.

 

[The Old Master]

RAS is controversial, some people will write a full dictation on why it’s stupid, etc

I tend to agree, but ultimately the people making the draft decisions do put weight behind it.

Which is why I think Addison will drop now.


I know Porter is well thought of by some fans/pundits.

I’m just much more partial to Witherspoon and think he’s CB1 in this draft.

I rarely bitch about a pick so if they take Porter cool, but I definitely have a different preference.

always good to have 2 to choose from. when you only have one, he always gets picked right before you get the chance.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

RAS is controversial, some people will write a full dictation on why it’s stupid, etc

I tend to agree, but ultimately the people making the draft decisions do put weight behind it.

Which is why I think Addison will drop now.


I know Porter is well thought of by some fans/pundits.

I’m just much more partial to Witherspoon and think he’s CB1 in this draft.

I rarely bitch about a pick so if they take Porter cool, but I definitely have a different preference.

I like witherspoon too. Dudes a baller

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

always good to have 2 to choose from. when you only have one, he always gets picked right before you get the chance.

Or the worst case scenario, both make it to your pick, and you pass on the perennial Pro Bowler for a dude who will wash out because he wanted to smoke Js with Thurgood Jenkins and the ghost of Jerry Garcia.

Abracadabra.

 

[JTG]

Skilled NFL positions are a lot like hockey players - there is functional speed and game speed. There are a ton of guys in the NHL that can absolutely fly, but when they play the game, they look slow because they do not think the game at a high level.

Brian Branch had a horrendous combine. That dude can ball out. Addison had a poor combine...same thing. The difference between the two of them and guys who test better are that they can think the game at a higher level and the speed difference all of a sudden diminishes. Chase Claypool was the latter - he will blow by guys and jump out of the stadium, but on game day none of that shows up. Guys who can think and play with speed have yellow jackets.

 

[JTG]

I think my favorite player in this draft is Keion White. I think he's going to be a monster player. He's like a jacked up Stephon Tuitt. I go back and forth the direction we should go, but I'm really leaning on getting aggressive with rebuilding the defensive line and letting everything else on the defense work itself out.

Also found a comparison between Gronk and Darnell Washington to be interesting. Gronks production in college blows Washington away, but physically they are basically the same player.

	Washington	Gronkowski
Height	6'7	6'6
Weight	264	264
Arm	34.5	34.25
Hand	11	10.75
40 yard	4.64	4.65
10-split	1.57	1.58
Vertical	31	33.5
Broad	10'2	9'11
3 Cone	DNP	7.18
20 yard shuttle	4.08	4.47
Bench	21	23

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

RAS can’t be the whole puzzle but it makes sense to give it a little weight just given how the game of football works.