OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Sneaking up onto training camp

[Buddy Bizarre]

that still doesn't make them equal.

Yup and that's what I was trying to convey.
Look, I don't fault Tomlin for being a part of drafting KP or bringing in Mitch. They both were reasonable decisions and considering any other alternative, the best decisions to address the QB position.

What I will fault Tomlin and his merry band of idiots on is the evaluation of the 3 QB's in the room. That was an extreme failure and it falls in line with my hypothesis that Tomlin don't know jack about offensive football (the noun, not the verb )

 

[WickedWrister]

The improvement from Fields seems to be a pretty common report from beat writers too that were at OTAs which is nice to see. For batted balls, I’d be curious to see a breakdown of how many came during padded vs in padded practice. I forget which podcast I heard it on but someone said it’s a little easier for the defense to cheat and swat balls during the unpadded portion.

Yeah I remember hearing the same thing. I think it might've been TJ that said "since you're not allowed to hit the QB in practice, guys get their hands up more often as a way to kill the play" or something to that effect.

I don't know if batted balls were a thing that happened to him a lot in Chicago or college. In the preseason game we saw him drop down his arm angle to avoid the defender on that screen pass to Najee, so that ability is in there somewhere. Probably other contributing factors too.

 

[Peat]

The improvement from Fields seems to be a pretty common report from beat writers too that were at OTAs which is nice to see. For batted balls, I’d be curious to see a breakdown of how many came during padded vs unpadded practice. I forget which podcast I heard it on but someone said it’s a little easier for the defense to cheat and swat balls during the unpadded portion.

I don’t think the Wilson thing is all that surprising. He still has the arm and accuracy to impress in these settings. I’m definitely interested to see how things look with him when there’s a real pass rush.

I think it was a little heavier during unpadded, but has continued through padded to a significant degree.

And tbh, to a certain extent, kinda big whoop because it's still easier for a defence to do that in a padded practice than a game.

But the thing is, once you're adjusting for things that are easier in camp than in games, what you said about the real pass rush goes for both guys. I don't think there's a QB in the league who hasn't shredded a defence that couldn't pressure him at some point. It's what happens when the pressure comes in its myriad forms that you separate the wheat from the chaff. Talk of Fields improving without that pressure there is nice but probably as meaningless as getting batted down a ton by DL who aren't rushing the pass as hard.

 

[Pengwins]

I can't believe people still think Fields is anything more than a back up quality QB lol

I can't believe most people on this site thought Kenny Pickett was good

 

[DanielPlainview]

He doesn't, I just felt your last message was kind of low effort and annoying, so I wanted to make fun of your previous bad takes.

Justin Fields is a turnover machine that can’t read the field or a defense. He sucks. Let it go. It has nothing to do with Kenny Pickett, who btw looked good in preseason last year then slowly regressed as the season went along. People trying to pile on him now for a preseason performance are just as foolish as those who were ready to anoint him last August.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Justin Fields is a turnover machine that can’t read the field or a defense. He sucks. Let it go. It has nothing to do with Kenny Pickett, who btw looked good in preseason last year then slowly regressed as the season went along. People trying to pile on him now for a preseason performance are just as foolish as those who were ready to anoint him last August.

The biggest difference between JF and Kp is turnovers arm talent and athleticism add the ability to run

 

[UnrealMachine]

I can't believe people still think Fields is anything more than a back up quality QB lol

To me, it is short-sighted to believe that Fields is done developing as a QB (or just as an NFL player in general). He has already had the 2nd best rushing season of all-time from a QB and his throwing stats have steadily improved. He has a career 7.0 y/a (on a terrible team) vs Jackson’s 7.5 (on a good team). In summary, I hope you’re wrong.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

To me, it is short-sighted to believe that Fields is done developing as a QB (or just as an NFL player in general). He has already had the 2nd best rushing season of all-time from a QB and his throwing stats have steadily improved. He has a career 7.0 y/a (on a terrible team) vs Jackson’s 7.5 (on a good team). In summary, I hope you’re wrong.

Again, I hope I'm wrong but in the modern NFL there aren't many examples of QB's who perform this poorly early on and then eventually figure it out. We know JF can run the ball well, but he sucks at throwing it.

And I want to be clear: there is a difference between "growing pains" that every rookie NFL QB experiences vs "you just aren't getting it".

Off the top of my head I can only count a few late bloomers who were deemed "just not getting it" and eventually the light came on.

-Maddox
- R Cunningham
- Kurt Warner

Feel free to add to the list.

To me, JF is a more athletic, but more turnover prone KP. Anyone expecting more from Fields is going to be very disappointed.

 

[WickedWrister]

Justin Fields is a turnover machine that can’t read the field or a defense. He sucks. Let it go. It has nothing to do with Kenny Pickett, who btw looked good in preseason last year then slowly regressed as the season went along. People trying to pile on him now for a preseason performance are just as foolish as those who were ready to anoint him last August.

"Pickett is a checkdown merchant that can't push the ball down the field or make a big play. He sucks. Let it go"

Do you see how lazy these kind of comments are? I'm just going to mute you as I don't really value your contributions to this thread.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just find it interesting that people have decided that Fields entering this year at age 25 is nothing but a backup, but Pickett entering last year at age 25 still had starter upside.

I have expressed my skepticism with Fields on here numerous times, but I just find it weird with the overlap of pro-Pickett guys that are insistent Fields is just terrible. Again, Fields today is the same age that Pickett was entering last year. He's the same age as Levis. He's still pretty young for a QB and his results in the NFL (especially after his rookie year) haven't been awful.

Fields also actually ended up making some progress with his passing game going from 2022 to 2023. Just to post a few stats:

-Completion%: 60.4% to 61.4%
-Yards/game: 149.5 to 197.1
-Int%: 3.5% to 2.4%
-Sack%: 14.7% to 10.6%
-NY/A: 5.05 to 5.50
-Fumbles: 16 to 10

He wasn't anything terrific last year, hence why the Steelers got him for a 5th, but there is progress there.

 

[The Old Master]

I think it was a little heavier during unpadded, but has continued through padded to a significant degree.

And tbh, to a certain extent, kinda big whoop because it's still easier for a defence to do that in a padded practice than a game.

But the thing is, once you're adjusting for things that are easier in camp than in games, what you said about the real pass rush goes for both guys. I don't think there's a QB in the league who hasn't shredded a defence that couldn't pressure him at some point. It's what happens when the pressure comes in its myriad forms that you separate the wheat from the chaff. Talk of Fields improving without that pressure there is nice but probably as meaningless as getting batted down a ton by DL who aren't rushing the pass as hard.

it shows he knows what to do, he now needs to do it without thinking. that will come with more time and rep's

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't have much faith in Fields as anything beyond a worthwhile gamble, but I am here for the pile on of the Plain who was an epic clown and patronizing hole about Pickett last year.

 

[Peat]

I just find it interesting that people have decided that Fields entering this year at age 25 is nothing but a backup, but Pickett entering last year at age 25 still had starter upside.

I have expressed my skepticism with Fields on here numerous times, but I just find it weird with the overlap of pro-Pickett guys that are insistent Fields is just terrible. Again, Fields today is the same age that Pickett was entering last year. He's the same age as Levis. He's still pretty young for a QB and his results in the NFL (especially after his rookie year) haven't been awful.

I wrote a really long post before I noticed you were comparing Fields this year to Pickett last year, not the two this year. And now I have to delete it all.

And the big difference is I believe exposure to the NFL matters a hell of a lot more than age. Lots of QBs take a year to adapt to the NFL, particularly when their head coach dumps them in the shit. Not many QBs make the jump after their third year as a continuous starter. I don't care how young or old he is. Either the NFL software has installed on his brain hardware in that time, or you work on the assumption that his hardware just can't run it.

Which is where I suspect Pickett is at this point. I think they're the same guy in terms of upside - just about acceptable system QB but you're looking for the next guy - because they've got the same problem. Their brain doesn't solve the puzzle fast enough. I wanted to see Pickett in a real offence before I said it - I would personally say I'm less pro-Pickett than incredibly anti-Tomlin's offence - but in all probability, the difference between where he is and a genuinely exciting QB is too wide to say he's got it. Which is ditto Fields.

Also, as far as I'm concerned, a QB who's consistently in the bottom third of the NFL on most throwing numbers is, if not awful, then just not good enough.


edit: Also, in hindsight, maybe I was being naive about how much Pickett's age mattered. Never really looked at it.

But the kicker there is if I was wrong, that's another black mark against Fields. Going after Pickett using Fields only exposes the flaws in Fields (unless you really really believe in athleticism as a separator).

Which I guess doesn't bother a lot of people here because they're not really invested in Fields, they're just annoyed by a Pickett poster. A lot of this discussion is between people who think Fields maybe has a 5% chance and those who think he has a 0.5% chance, which offers a lot of room for discussion but is more similar than not.

 

[WickedWrister]

There's a lot of information out there about age and production, usually from a fantasy/dynasty football perspective. So not directly related to what we're talking about but I think there's some useful overlap.

My recollection of all this from when I got really into it one summer was that the vast majority of QB's who go on to be high end producers (top 10 at their positions) will show signs of a breakout by the time they've accumulated ~20 starts. There's obviously some exceptions to the rule but I'm just speaking in terms of the majority of players. Like if you're not showing glimpses of elite play at some point in your second full year as a starter, the odds are not in your favor of ever being able to do it.

To be clear, I'm not saying Fields is going to be good for us because he had some good fantasy football seasons. Rushing QB's are just a cheat code.

History says he's probably not going to work out. I want him to, because that would be sick for us, but I'm not naive. But at the cost of a conditional 6th round pick, I'm ok with the risk/reward.

I just get annoyed at people coming in here with a clear agenda and no desire to actually have a conversation.

 

[cookthebooks]

i am more interested in fields after hearing the bears tried to change his footwork and the steelers are letting him do what he always did when planting

 

[Ryder71]

Brandon Aiyuk is a Steeler, it just hasn't been officially announced yet. Just prepare your apology for being wrong all this time when it is.

From three days ago. lol

You lied to us!

 

[WickedWrister]

Live look at Russell Wilson as we continue to devote time and energy into talking about his backup:

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wrote a really long post before I noticed you were comparing Fields this year to Pickett last year, not the two this year. And now I have to delete it all.

And the big difference is I believe exposure to the NFL matters a hell of a lot more than age. Lots of QBs take a year to adapt to the NFL, particularly when their head coach dumps them in the shit. Not many QBs make the jump after their third year as a continuous starter. I don't care how young or old he is. Either the NFL software has installed on his brain hardware in that time, or you work on the assumption that his hardware just can't run it.

Which is where I suspect Pickett is at this point. I think they're the same guy in terms of upside - just about acceptable system QB but you're looking for the next guy - because they've got the same problem. Their brain doesn't solve the puzzle fast enough. I wanted to see Pickett in a real offence before I said it - I would personally say I'm less pro-Pickett than incredibly anti-Tomlin's offence - but in all probability, the difference between where he is and a genuinely exciting QB is too wide to say he's got it. Which is ditto Fields.

Also, as far as I'm concerned, a QB who's consistently in the bottom third of the NFL on most throwing numbers is, if not awful, then just not good enough.


edit: Also, in hindsight, maybe I was being naive about how much Pickett's age mattered. Never really looked at it.

But the kicker there is if I was wrong, that's another black mark against Fields. Going after Pickett using Fields only exposes the flaws in Fields (unless you really really believe in athleticism as a separator).

Which I guess doesn't bother a lot of people here because they're not really invested in Fields, they're just annoyed by a Pickett poster. A lot of this discussion is between people who think Fields maybe has a 5% chance and those who think he has a 0.5% chance, which offers a lot of room for discussion but is more similar than not.

Yeah I don't think any of this is unreasonable. I do think there is a debate to be had regarding age vs experience when you consider how young Fields was and how much of a mess his team was, which is an awful combination for any QB. You also saw some passing game improvement from his 2nd to 3rd year, which wasn't massive but does show he can continue to grow as a player.

Like I've said numerous times, I'm very skeptical Fields will become anything. I'd put it at maybe a 20% chance he develops into a legitimately solid starting QB (meaning average or better). But I think his year-to-year passing improvement and his age suggests there is an upside there. That's actually the big difference I see between Pickett and Fields, Pickett regressed from year 1 to year 2 while Fields has consistently improved (with his passing game that is). It's just a question of where Fields peaks and whether that's an acceptable starter or not.

 

[Peat]

Yeah I don't think any of this is unreasonable. I do think there is a debate to be had regarding age vs experience when you consider how young Fields was and how much of a mess his team was, which is an awful combination for any QB. You also saw some passing game improvement from his 2nd to 3rd year, which wasn't massive but does show he can continue to grow as a player.

Like I've said numerous times, I'm very skeptical Fields will become anything. I'd put it at maybe a 20% chance he develops into a legitimately solid starting QB (meaning average or better). But I think his year-to-year passing improvement and his age suggests there is an upside there. That's actually the big difference I see between Pickett and Fields, Pickett regressed from year 1 to year 2 while Fields has consistently improved (with his passing game that is). It's just a question of where Fields peaks and whether that's an acceptable starter or not.

Do Fields' numbers represent improvement as a player though, or being on a team with DJ Moore? Given some of the jumps that guys have taken after getting a high quality WR - see Allen and Diggs, or Hurts and Brown - mightn't we have expected bigger improvements? Do we trust the numbers that say he improved over passer rating (very modest growth) or QBR (went backwards)?

I don't have answers there but there's enough questions that I'm not convinced he's actually improving.

And fwiw, trying to adjust for the same sliding grade based on cast, most of the things around Pickett went to hell from Y1 to Y2. The way his injuries meant he missed the easy part of the year where DJ and Muth were fit and the schedule softened was a significant difficulty. I remember one guy tried to do a mathematical model for how easy each team made their guy's job. Fields was pretty much average last year. Pickett was 3rd bottom in front of the Giants' QBs. So did Fields improve and Pickett regress, or did they just each follow the current? My guess is there's a substantial amount of the latter.


p.s. There might be a debate on age vs experience, yeah. I haven't looked hard at that. I do feel fairly safe saying that 3 years of starting experience is a lot and the list of guys who didn't have it by then who then go it is very small... and I suspect that age wise, being 25 now isn't going to be great for Fields either when you look at it. Yeah, he's younger than most 4th year QBs, but most guys who make it have made it before they enter their 4th year so they're probably doing it by age 25. That bit is a guess. But 3 years? QB is really tough and I know most QBs are still building their understanding of the game at that age - I think I saw one coach saying Ben's mental map was still a work in progress at that age - but some parts of it should be there instinctively.

I also don't know much experience helps or hinders with my suspicion that maybe he's just a bit of a choker.

 

[DanielPlainview]

"Pickett is a checkdown merchant that can't push the ball down the field or make a big play. He sucks. Let it go"

Do you see how lazy these kind of comments are? I'm just going to mute you as I don't really value your contributions to this thread.

Those are not even close to the same level of analysis, clown lol

You're going to mute me because you can't handle people analyzing Justin Fields? What a little b

 

[DanielPlainview]

I just find it interesting that people have decided that Fields entering this year at age 25 is nothing but a backup, but Pickett entering last year at age 25 still had starter upside.

I have expressed my skepticism with Fields on here numerous times, but I just find it weird with the overlap of pro-Pickett guys that are insistent Fields is just terrible. Again, Fields today is the same age that Pickett was entering last year. He's the same age as Levis. He's still pretty young for a QB and his results in the NFL (especially after his rookie year) haven't been awful.

Fields also actually ended up making some progress with his passing game going from 2022 to 2023. Just to post a few stats:

-Completion%: 60.4% to 61.4%
-Yards/game: 149.5 to 197.1
-Int%: 3.5% to 2.4%
-Sack%: 14.7% to 10.6%
-NY/A: 5.05 to 5.50
-Fumbles: 16 to 10

He wasn't anything terrific last year, hence why the Steelers got him for a 5th, but there is progress there.

The difference between the two is why they've struggled. Kenny Pickett can read the field and protects the ball much more effectively than Fields. Those are two things that really cannot be taught. Justin Fields struggles because he can't read what's going on in front of him and he fails to protect the ball whether it's fumbles or interceptions. Kenny Pickett played in a joke of an offensive scheme run by the worst OC the league has seen in decades while playing behind one of the worst pass-blocking OL in the league. While Fields didn't have Kyle Shanahan running things in Chicago, his OC was much better than Matt Canada and his OL was pretty good. Pickett has struggled with happy feet and playing anxious, two things that can be remedied a bit with good coaching. Whether he takes to the coaching in Philly remains to be seen. Unfortunately for Justin Fields, he's in Pittsburgh. He's not going to get any kind of real coaching here. He may get a slight stats boost by having better weapons around him but that's a mirage.

These surface level analyses of the QBs are a joke and I'll gladly sit here and tear these stupid arguments to pieces for you dolts.

 

[Peat]

I've also got to say that, if we believe QB performance does depend a bunch on cast, talking about Fields' revival behind an OL that allowed pressures on 4 out of 9 plays for Fields in his first pre-season game and with a WR/TE core where Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and Connor Heyward are "you gotta be good guys" does seem to indicate a certain level of pessimism is far from unwarranted.

 

[Ryder71]

We were lied to!

 

[bigdaddyk88]

KP can’t read defenses either. Last week the Eagles coach said when asked about Kp learning moore offensive. He is good when he knows exactly where to go with it

 

[bigdaddyk88]