OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Ploff wins?!? Fire Tomlin

[wheelz87]

Rumor around town is that he’s coming back for his senior yr

I just don't see it happening. The whole reason he went to OSU was to split carries and save his body for the NFL.

Also to your list of RBs.. Devin Neal is my guy. Great player, fantastic human.

 

[Peat]

View attachment 960572

The article that quote from is a fun option. Honestly, the bit on the Steelers is the least interesting - save for a quote from one executive suggesting that maybe once people start talking staffing change, that's maybe when moving on from Tomlin happens if he kicks up at that. I found the point that the top 5 offences in the NFL this year were all run by non-offensive play callers, many of whom have had top offences with different playcallers very illuminating.

Which brings us back to a major part of the Tomlin struggle. Maybe the most major. Dan Campbell said that the most important thing a head coach does is hire his staff. I don't think he's wrong. You can argue playing personnel, but staff will hugely shape that anyway. Get the right coaching staff and they'll help you get the right players. The right players can't help you get the right coaching staff.

And Tomlin's staff is a rather glum list of 'what were you thinking'.

 

[End of Line]

I think his vision is quite good and he has special physical tools. He seems like a legit Kamara type RB. Boise was overmatched against quite a few teams. I just see him as a home run. That being said, I like many other backs in this draft also.

I’m not saying he’s a 7th rd or UDFA by any means but anyone who uses a first on him will regret it, like us when it comes to Najee.

I just don't see it happening. The whole reason he went to OSU was to split carries and save his body for the NFL.

Also to your list of RBs.. Devin Neal is my guy. Great player, fantastic human.

NIL money is hard to pass up

 

[pistolpete11]

The point about it being harder to do when the rushing attack isn't all of that is a fair one. But it doesn't make sense to me as the sole reason all of that happened. Not like Tomlin being conservative doesn't fit a pattern.

The running efficiency, IMO, is largely due to predictability, though, and Tomlin's fear of getting behind the sticks. Again, maybe it's Smith's philosophy, too, but I KNOW it's Tomlin's.

However, these were the Y/A from his leading rushers in Atlanta

2021 : 4.0 (which was a 30-year old Patterson )
2022 : 4.9
2023 : 4.6

It's probably not fair to use his time in Tennessee since he had Henry, BUT, Henry averaged 5.1 and 5.4 with Smith. His other years in Tennessee were 4.5, 4.2, 4.9, 4.3, 4.4, 4.2. So a noticeable uptick.

Najee was 4.0 this year and going backwards, 4.1, 3.8, 3.9. Conner was 4.3, 4.0, 4.5 in his years as a starter. Even Bell was 4.0 in his last year with the Steelers. So it's another pattern that fits Tomlin and not Smith.

 

[pistolpete11]

The reason I’m not high on Jeanty is quality of competition. Beating up on MWC teams is much different than going up against Big Ten or SEC teams on a consistent basis. Yes, he played against Oregon in week 2 this year while Oregon was still figuring out their defense. Then he played against Penn St and was essentially shut down only avg 3.5yds a carry. In the past two years he’s ran the ball 600x which is some serious miles on his body already. Hes just not a 1st rd pick.

To be fair, Penn State had a great defense and Boise State (probably) doesn't have the same level of talent on their O-line. A RB can only do so much with their O-line. I was pretty impressed with him against Penn State TBH. He broke a lot of tackles to get more than he should.

But overall, I agree, I wouldn't take him in R1 even if he's there. He probably won't be so it doesn't matter and there's no chance he'll be there in the 2nd.

 

[JTG]

The article that quote from is a fun option. Honestly, the bit on the Steelers is the least interesting - save for a quote from one executive suggesting that maybe once people start talking staffing change, that's maybe when moving on from Tomlin happens if he kicks up at that. I found the point that the top 5 offences in the NFL this year were all run by non-offensive play callers, many of whom have had top offences with different playcallers very illuminating.

Which brings us back to a major part of the Tomlin struggle. Maybe the most major. Dan Campbell said that the most important thing a head coach does is hire his staff. I don't think he's wrong. You can argue playing personnel, but staff will hugely shape that anyway. Get the right coaching staff and they'll help you get the right players. The right players can't help you get the right coaching staff.

And Tomlin's staff is a rather glum list of 'what were you thinking'.

Here is kind of where I'm at and how I think things should go - you trade Pickens before the draft. You put feelers out for Minkah. If a deal blows them away, take it, if not, he's only 28 and he's one of those guys who will always have value. Give TJ the option to leave, letting him know big changes are coming. He wouldn't. Take staff hiring out of Tomlin's hands and make it by committee. I full expect Artie to leave and Austin and Meyer should be fired. Rebuild the staff. Run with Fields next season and see what we have. Move Jones to LT and see what they have. If they bomb again, trade Watt and anything else of value. Use 26/27 drafts to rebuild. If they bomb again, Tomlin is on the block.

I’m not saying he’s a 7th rd or UDFA by any means but anyone who uses a first on him will regret it, like us when it comes to Najee.



NIL money is hard to pass up

Yeah, I disagree there. Time will tell though. I think he's a franchise RB.

 

[xlm34]

The running efficiency, IMO, is largely due to predictability, though, and Tomlin's fear of getting behind the sticks. Again, maybe it's Smith's philosophy, too, but I KNOW it's Tomlin's.

However, these were the Y/A from his leading rushers in Atlanta

2021 : 4.0 (which was a 30-year old Patterson )
2022 : 4.9
2023 : 4.6

It's probably not fair to use his time in Tennessee since he had Henry, BUT, Henry averaged 5.1 and 5.4 with Smith. His other years in Tennessee were 4.5, 4.2, 4.9, 4.3, 4.4, 4.2. So a noticeable uptick.

Najee was 4.0 this year and going backwards, 4.1, 3.8, 3.9. Conner was 4.3, 4.0, 4.5 in his years as a starter. Even Bell was 4.0 in his last year with the Steelers. So it's another pattern that fits Tomlin and not Smith.

Smith had the highest first down run rate in the league last year with the Falcons. He’s insanely predictable when it comes to running the ball. I just don’t think the backs this year were a particularly good fit for the run scheme he likes and he wasn’t going to change that.

I don’t disagree that this offense is Tomlin driven but I completely disagree with any notion that Tomlin is hamstringing Smith. Tomlin just went out and hired a guy who already likes the style of the football that he wants.

If there’s a person that’s limiting Smith from running his full offense, to me that’s Wilson. It’s just a weird marriage between those two.

 

[JTG]

I'd actually love to see what Khan and Weidl could do with a flood of picks. The common thought amongst minds for a Tomlin/Steelers break is that they tell him he doesn't get say on his staff and he basically says that he wants out.

I actually think that is highly likely, because that is the exact conversation they need to have with him. Could be an interesting summer.

 

[pistolpete11]

Smith had the highest first down run rate in the league last year with the Falcons. He’s insanely predictable when it comes to running the ball.

I just don’t think the backs this year were a particularly good fit for the run scheme he likes and he wasn’t going to change that.

But all of this stuff works together. Running the ball a lot on 1st down is not necessarily a bad thing if you're setting things up to take shots down field. If you don't take those shots frequently enough, though, you're a) obviously not going to get those big plays and b) the defense isn't going to respect it anymore. One feeds the other, but Tomlin won't let the aggressive passing eat.

I admit Smith is not wildly different than Tomlin. It's probably why he got the job, but he's still fighting with a hand tied behind his back because of Tomlin. We've seen the same tendencies with the same results across 3 different OC's and a wide range of personnel under Tomlin. More than anything, he's the problem.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Smith had the highest first down run rate in the league last year with the Falcons. He’s insanely predictable when it comes to running the ball. I just don’t think the backs this year were a particularly good fit for the run scheme he likes and he wasn’t going to change that.

I don’t disagree that this offense is Tomlin driven but I completely disagree with any notion that Tomlin is hamstringing Smith. Tomlin just went out and hired a guy who already likes the style of the football that he wants.

If there’s a person that’s limiting Smith from running his full offense, to me that’s Wilson. It’s just a weird marriage between those two.

Yeah Smith wants to be heavy play action and neither Qb is great at it. Fields doesn’t operate under center and RW doesn’t use intermediate in breaking routes. RW doesn’t do quick game which is why Peyton hated him in Denver. The offense is not capable of throwing 35 times because they don’t have enough playmakers. Muth on a sb contender is a 4th option like Goddert.

But all of this stuff works together. Running the ball a lot on 1st down is not necessarily a bad thing if you're setting things up to take shots down field. If you don't take those shots frequently enough, though, you're a) obviously not going to get those big plays and b) the defense isn't going to respect it anymore. One feeds the other, but Tomlin won't let the aggressive passing eat.

I admit Smith is not wildly different than Tomlin. It's probably why he got the job, but he's still fighting with a hand tied behind his back because of Tomlin. We've seen the same tendencies with the same results across 3 different OC's and a wide range of personnel under Tomlin. More than anything, he's the problem.

He did when he had ben and ab. In tomlins mind he thought RW would be the best Qb he has since Bens injury in 2019. Each week RW played his age kept catching up to him.

 

[JTG]

The Fields I saw in his audition, I don't really think he needs play action if he has the right RB and he can be accurate and efficient. Fields could be a legit assassin if he had the ability to kill teams with the intermediate pass consistently. He'd be able to choke teams out on his own.

Now if they added play action with Fields and Austin continues to develop...that could be a secret sauce, but we are miles from that.

 

[pistolpete11]

If there’s a person that’s limiting Smith from running his full offense, to me that’s Wilson. It’s just a weird marriage between those two.

More than Tomlin??? Really??? After years and years of watching this offense, you think it's the guy who's made a career on moonballs that is preventing them from throwing the ball downfield?

 

[bambamcam4ever]

More than Tomlin??? Really??? After years and years of watching this offense, you think it's the guy who's made a career on moonballs that is preventing them from throwing the ball downfield?

The Steelers played very differently on offense when they had actual talent (particularly AB) under Tomlin. How do you run an offense when the QB will only look to throw either underneath or past the entire defense?

 

[xlm34]

But all of this stuff works together. Running the ball a lot on 1st down is not necessarily a bad thing if you're setting things up to take shots down field. If you don't take those shots frequently enough, though, you're a) obviously not going to get those big plays and b) the defense isn't going to respect it anymore. One feeds the other, but Tomlin won't let the aggressive passing eat.

I admit Smith is not wildly different than Tomlin. It's probably why he got the job, but he's still fighting with a hand tied behind his back because of Tomlin. We've seen the same tendencies with the same results across 3 different OC's and a wide range of personnel under Tomlin. More than anything, he's the problem.

More than Tomlin??? Really??? After years and years of watching this offense, you think it's the guy who's made a career on moonballs that is preventing them from throwing the ball downfield?

…but they’re not taking deep shots less than Smith normally does. Look at passing charts for Wilson and then previous Smith offenses:

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The throws in the 20+ part of the field aren’t much different at all. What’s completely different is the 10-20 yard throws which Wilson is known for not doing.

And again, when you can’t run the ball even against light boxes and all your QB can do is throw deep, just taking deep shots ain’t gonna work against any decent defense.

 

[JTG]

It has also now been two coordinators, 5 different QBs, and the offense looks exactly the same as it did 4 years ago before Canada took over...

...

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Steelers played very differently on offense when they had actual talent (particularly AB) under Tomlin. How do you run an offense when the QB will only look to throw either underneath or past the entire defense?

Maybe Wilson has to do that because his WRs are dogshit at getting open.

Wilson has his issues but it's completely wild to me that people focus on him more than the WRs, playcalling or general scheme Tomlin has implemented.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

The Fields I saw in his audition, I don't really think he needs play action if he has the right RB and he can be accurate and efficient. Fields could be a legit assassin if he had the ability to kill teams with the intermediate pass consistently. He'd be able to choke teams out on his own.

Now if they added play action with Fields and Austin continues to develop...that could be a secret sauce, but we are miles from that.

Every Qb needs rpo a and play action. Jordan Love is ranked 27th as a Qb in straight drop back passing. Theres a reason modern offenses use motion pre snap and exit Motion to give the wr a running start. The dolphins Rams and packers do it the most,
The Colts abd Eagles are more pure RPo teams which is where Fields needs to get comfortable with. Your giving the answer to the qb every play
Smith uses a ton of motion but RW always changes the play to make it perfect instead of just taking the 5 yard play as it designed for

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Maybe Wilson has to do that because his WRs are dogshit at getting open.

Wilson has his issues but it's completely wild to me that people focus on him more than the WRs, playcalling or general scheme Tomlin has implemented.

Nope this is who is was in Denver and Seattle. Its why Peyton couldn’t stand him. It why he was the most sacked Qb in Denver he refuses to run the play as called. His receivers weren’t great in Denver he didn’t work with anyone other the Sutton.

 

[pistolpete11]

He did when he had ben and ab.

You mean nearly a decade ago when he had a HOF QB and the best WR in football? Whoopie. If that's what he needs to not play scared on offense, which apparently it is, then he needs to go.

In tomlins mind he thought RW would be the best Qb he has since Bens injury in 2019. Each week RW played his age kept catching up to him.

Bullshit.

They shredded the Bungles defense by passing the ball and it was TOMLIN who said he was scared of their defense all of a sudden so they went run heavy in the second game.

The Philly-Baltimore-KC run was mostly a case of good defenses on top of the other constant issues.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Nope this is who is was in Denver and Seattle. Its why Peyton couldn’t stand him. It why he was the most sacked Qb in Denver he refuses to run the play as called. His receivers weren’t great in Denver he didn’t work with anyone other the Sutton.

Wilson has always been a guy who holds onto the ball for too long, and if you have WRs who can't get open, he'll hold onto the ball even longer. Now combine that with Tomlin's philosophy of "just don't turn the ball over", why is anyone surprised that Wilson's only throws are deep moonballs or short underneath throws?

Wilson's own issues plus the terrible WR talent and Tomlin's conservatism all combine to cause that. It's silly to only blame Wilson on that.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

From Barnwell at ESPN


Steelers: Should this be it for Mike Tomlin?
Wild-card weekend result: Lost 28-14 to the Ravens

A lot can change in five weeks, huh? After beating the Bengals and Browns in early December, the Steelers were 10-3. ESPN's Football Power Index gave them just under an 80% chance of winning the AFC North, which would have given them a home playoff game in front of fans for the first time since the 2017 postseason (their most recent home playoff game, period, happened during the pandemic in the 2020 season). At 10-3, Tomlin was a realistic candidate for Coach of the Year.

Instead, five weeks later, there are realistic conversations about whether Tomlin can take this version of the Steelers any further. They lost their final five games, including Saturday's 28-14 manhandling. The loss marked Tomlin's sixth consecutive playoff defeat, with those losses coming by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Eighteen teams have won a playoff game over the past eight seasons. Until now, Pittsburgh hadn't gone eight consecutive seasons without winning at least one playoff game since 1971.

And so, seemingly, the Steelers are stuck in football purgatory. Tomlin is good enough to keep them competitive and post a .500 or better record every season, but over nearly a decade of football, he has been unable to take them any further. Depending on how you want to look at it, he overachieved with a roster that might not be playoff-caliber or underachieved with a perennial playoff contender. Steelers fans seem to spend most of the season believing the former and come away from the playoffs feeling the latter.

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Schefter: There's no indication Steelers want to move on from TomlinAdam Schefter and Rex Ryan weigh in on Mike Tomlin and the Steelers' future following their sixth consecutive playoff loss.
So, is Tomlin overachieving or underachieving? I'd argue the former. He is making this roster better. We've seen star front-seven defenders such as T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward be coached by him, but consider how players who have been brought in by the Steelers have performed relative to their performances elsewhere. Minkah Fitzpatrick had been benched by the Dolphins as a slot corner, and Tomlin & Co. moved him to free safety, where he has been a perennial Pro Bowler. Quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were both better in Pittsburgh in 2024 than they were for other teams in 2023. Players such as wideout Mike Williams and cornerback Donte Jackson, unwanted by their former clubs, played meaningful roles for Pittsburgh this season.

And on the flip side, how many players have left the Steelers over the past five years and thrived elsewhere? The biggest free agent departures have been edge rusher Bud Dupree, offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva, wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster and cornerback Cameron Sutton. None of those players has made the impact elsewhere that he made in Pittsburgh. The same was true for running back Le'Veon Bell and offensive lineman Chris Hubbard. Diontae Johnson and Antonio Brown, two mercurial wide receivers traded away by Pittsburgh, barely registered after leaving the franchise. With running back James Conner as a notable exception, Tomlin seems to get more out of his players than their new teams.

Could Tomlin be overworking a veteran team, leading to late-season struggles? Maybe. Since this playoff win drought started in 2017, the Steelers are 56-29-2 (.655) in September, October and November, but that drops to 24-21 (.533) in December and January. Throw in the playoff losses and they are a sub-.500 team once the calendar hits Dec. 1. I thought that might be a product of a more difficult schedule, but they have actually played playoff qualifiers slightly more often over the first three months of the season (40.9%) than the final two (37.8%)

There's not one factor driving those declines. In 2018, the Steelers played three 12-plus win teams down the stretch and lost two of the three, although they did beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots. In 2019, an offense without injured quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turned the ball over nine times during the final three games of the season, all losses. The 2020 team started 11-0 before losing four of its final five, with a defense that had forced 21 turnovers through that 11-game win streak generating four over its final six games, including the playoff loss to the Browns.

The late-season schneid hasn't always been a thing, either. The 2021 team was 5-5-1 before winning four of its final six games to make it to the playoffs. The 2022 team started 2-6 without Watt, then went 7-2 after he returned from injury. The 2023 team lost three straight in December, then won its final three games to ensure a playoff spot.

The five-game losing streak facing these Steelers seems like a greatest hits collection. The defense stopped forcing takeaways; it forced 28 through its first 13 games but then added just five over those five losses. And, perhaps more importantly, the competition got much stiffer. The teams the Steelers played over the final month won an average of 12.4 games this season. The ones they played during the 10-3 start won an average of 7.3 games. Pittsburgh beat the Broncos, Chargers and Ravens earlier this season, so it had some success against playoff teams, but the schedule got much tougher late.

The Steelers have spectacularly outplayed their point differential at times over the past few seasons and won a staggeringly high rate of their close games, although they went 4-4 in games decided by seven or fewer points in 2024. There have been truly elite quarterbacks who have put together long stretches of winning a high percentage of their one-score games, but it's safe to say Pittsburgh is not benefiting from elite quarterback play. (It wasn't that team when Roethlisberger was at his peak, either.)

Over the past five years, 70 teams have made it to the postseason. Among those qualifiers, Tomlin's Steelers teams have ranked 58th, 64th, 67th and 68th in QBR. Take the bottom 15 teams from that list, and there aren't many victories: Just three of those 15 have won even one playoff game, including the Texans on Saturday. The Steelers have gone down by significant margins in each of those playoff losses, which isn't making Tomlin's case stronger, but I'm not sure they should have expected much from these appearances.


Despite regular-season success, Mike Tomlin's Steelers haven't won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
Tomlin bears ultimate responsibility for that quarterback play, and while it has been convenient to blame offensive coordinators for the problems, Tomlin is hiring those guys, too. It might seem as if Arthur Smith has done better than Matt Canada and many of his predecessors, but this Pittsburgh offense ranked 25th in the league in EPA per play during the regular season, exactly where it ranked a year ago and down from 18th in 2022. In 2021, Roethlisberger's final season with the team, the Steelers were ... 25th by the same metric.

The consistent complaint about the Steelers going back to the end of the Bruce Arians era in 2011 is that they don't run the ball enough, which is a product both of the team's glory days under Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher (when teams across the league ran the ball at a much higher rate), the weather in Pittsburgh (run friendly, of course), and the legendary consistency of their defense (getting them out to leads in so many games over the years that they spent much of the second halves chewing up clock on the ground).

It must have been painful, then, to see the Ravens across the field running with glee. Derrick Henry couldn't help but giggle as he ran untouched for a 44-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Baltimore finished 1 yard short of a 300-yard day on the ground, marking the most rushing yards the Steelers' defense had allowed in a single game in more than 49 years. To put that into context, the lead back on the other side of the field that day was O.J. Simpson.

There's one big difference between the Ravens and the Steelers: One team added its quarterback of the future before it needed to do so. Baltimore still had Joe Flacco under contract when it traded up for the final pick of the first round in 2018 and drafted Jackson. The rookie saved the Ravens' 2018 season after a 4-5 start when Flacco was injured and there were grumblings about coach John Harbaugh's job, and he has been spectacular when healthy from that point forward. The Ravens got their guy before they needed their guy.

The Steelers weren't proactive in replacing Roethlisberger. They used a fourth-round pick on Joshua Dobbs (2017) and a third-rounder on Mason Rudolph (2018), but quarterbacks taken in those ranges rarely turn into starters. When a 37-year-old Roethlisberger went down with an elbow injury in 2019, Pittsburgh traded its first-round pick to the Dolphins for Fitzpatrick, a move that helped make the team better but also cut off its most obvious path toward adding a new quarterback.

Since then, the Steelers have failed to find a solution. Roethlisberger threw change-ups for two years before retiring. They then used a 2022 first-round selection on Kenny Pickett, whose status as a local product made him a better story than prospect. The team gave up on Pickett after 24 starts, trading him to the Eagles last offseason. Recent moves for Mitchell Trubisky, Fields and Wilson haven't delivered the same sort of impact Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have provided their new clubs this season.

Nothing is going to change for the Steelers until they get the quarterback spot right, and waiting for Roethlisberger to retire before seriously addressing the issue has left them in this purgatory. Tomlin obviously has input into that process, but they are supposed to be the league's model franchise when it comes to drafting players, a run that stretches long before Tomlin's arrival.

And while the Steelers have hit on cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and center Zach Frazier in recent years, their first-round picks have been a mess. After landing Watt in 2017, they went five years without drafting a difference-maker in Round 1, a run that stretches across the end of Kevin Tolbert's run as general manager through the beginning of the Omar Khan era. Right tackle Broderick Jones, the Steelers' first-rounder in 2023, hasn't been great, and 2024 first-round lineman Troy Fautanu missed most of his rookie season because of a dislocated kneecap.


Once a franchise that almost never dipped into free agency, the Steelers have been far more aggressive on the open market, in part because they haven't drafted well. When they beat the Chiefs for their most recent postseason win in 2016, 20 of their 22 starters were drafted by or began their career in Pittsburgh. That number was down to 13 Saturday. Those aren't filler players, either; in addition to Wilson being the quarterback, six of the Steelers' 10 largest cap figures currently belong to players who were acquired via trades or free agency.

The Steelers have a philosophical question to ask themselves. What sort of team do they want to be, and can this roster-building model get them there? They might believe they're a quarterback away from being capable of making a deep playoff run, and I wouldn't argue. But the time to get that quarterback was five years ago, and the last-second moves they have done have been the football equivalent of getting socks for Christmas.

Something has to change, but should that be a big change or a small one? Squeezing something more out of this team might be winning on the margins. Maybe the Steelers actually commit to a more modern and consistent approach toward fourth-down decision-making. They ranked 28th in the rate at which they went for it on fourth down this season, per the FTN Football Almanac, and punted twice on fourth-and-short as huge underdogs Saturday. Maybe they could lean into the quarterback run game if they land the right option this offseason. One extra win might be the difference between hosting a playoff game and playing one on the road against a division winner, and that could break the streak.

In terms of big-picture changes, though, the Steelers might not have many levers to pull. Khan was just installed as general manager in 2022, and this isn't the sort of franchise to make sudden firings in key roles. Pittsburgh isn't committed to a quarterback. It's not about to trade Watt or Fitzpatrick, and Heyward is 36 years old. Even if it wanted to recalibrate and lean more heavily into the draft, that process would take years to play out.

The only move the Steelers really have to shake things up could be a coaching change. There would likely be a meaningful trade market for Tomlin if they wanted to make a change. Rumors of a potential coach trade are usually a product of agents getting involved and trying to get their coach more leverage or power, but unless that would mean personnel power in Pittsburgh, it's unclear what Tomlin would try to gain, having just signed a new deal in June.


I suspect the Steelers will run things back for another year without major changes, in part because doing anything else would force the organization to face difficult truths about where it stands and how it's operating. There's nothing wrong with being a perennial 10-win team and making it to the postseason, but Steelers fans have five decades' worth of reasons to expect more. If whatever percentage of the fan base gets its wish and Tomlin goes, I believe it would be a decision they regret.

 

[MrBrightside]

Weird, as I was told he was a good teammate.

 

[Peat]

Maybe Wilson has to do that because his WRs are dogshit at getting open.

Wilson has his issues but it's completely wild to me that people focus on him more than the WRs, playcalling or general scheme Tomlin has implemented.

Wilson not using the intermediate areas has been a problem for a while though, and Sutton and Jeudy weren't scrubs.

That said, in context of how aggressive Smith was compared to previous stops and how much Tomlin was pulling strings, I have a deep suspicion that Smith has pushed his preferred scheme on QBs that couldn't execute it before and will do again. I'm fairly sure he just got pretty stubborn about what rushing scheme they'd do despite it not fitting personnel.

So I'm disinclined to think the changes with Smith were about Wilson. But here's the big thing about this now I think about it...

I don’t disagree that this offense is Tomlin driven but I completely disagree with any notion that Tomlin is hamstringing Smith. Tomlin just went out and hired a guy who already likes the style of the football that he wants.

Tomlin wants the offence to do just enough to win the game. Tomlin wants the offence to put as much effort into putting the defence into a strong position as they do into actually scoring.

I don't think any OC thinks that's a good idea and I don't think any OC wouldn't be hamstrung by it because that's always going to take away some options and it's going to pile on mental pressure too.

Smith loves rushing offence, yeah. But he never collected Time of Possession like this year's offence did. His guys have always pushed for a ton of air yards when they did throw, except now they don't.

I really struggle to believe that the guy who let Ridder run up top 10 IAY and a 3.1 INT% would 100% of his own free will turn a gunslinger like Fields into a slightly more successful version of Pickett with chart breakingly low middle of field usage.

All in all, I definitely see Tomlin making things worse there. Smith is run heavy, yeah, but he's not a safe clock muncher. Or he wasn't.

The running efficiency, IMO, is largely due to predictability, though, and Tomlin's fear of getting behind the sticks. Again, maybe it's Smith's philosophy, too, but I KNOW it's Tomlin's.

However, these were the Y/A from his leading rushers in Atlanta

2021 : 4.0 (which was a 30-year old Patterson )
2022 : 4.9
2023 : 4.6

It's probably not fair to use his time in Tennessee since he had Henry, BUT, Henry averaged 5.1 and 5.4 with Smith. His other years in Tennessee were 4.5, 4.2, 4.9, 4.3, 4.4, 4.2. So a noticeable uptick.

Najee was 4.0 this year and going backwards, 4.1, 3.8, 3.9. Conner was 4.3, 4.0, 4.5 in his years as a starter. Even Bell was 4.0 in his last year with the Steelers. So it's another pattern that fits Tomlin and not Smith.

Yup. Although, tbf to Tomlin, without looking at rosters, there's a significant limiting factor here in terms of OL quality. I don't know Ben's last OL started dropping off, but the struggles there have really hurt. Smith's previously had pretty strong OLs. I can believe that was the main limitation rather than Tomlin there.

I have to say, the quality of rush scheme really took me aback. That was the area where I thought Smith would help but instead they got worse which is quite remarkable.

Here is kind of where I'm at and how I think things should go - you trade Pickens before the draft. You put feelers out for Minkah. If a deal blows them away, take it, if not, he's only 28 and he's one of those guys who will always have value. Give TJ the option to leave, letting him know big changes are coming. He wouldn't. Take staff hiring out of Tomlin's hands and make it by committee. I full expect Artie to leave and Austin and Meyer should be fired. Rebuild the staff. Run with Fields next season and see what we have. Move Jones to LT and see what they have. If they bomb again, trade Watt and anything else of value. Use 26/27 drafts to rebuild. If they bomb again, Tomlin is on the block.

More or less agree with this. Let Tomlin know that the new DC is going to have a far stronger say than Austin and Butler did and is here to implement a new scheme as the old one is exhausted of all credibility against strong opposition. If Tomlin is willing to accept that's the case and work with it, fine.

 

[pistolpete11]

…but they’re not taking deep shots less than Smith normally does. Look at passing charts for Wilson and then previous Smith offenses:

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The throws in the 20+ part of the field aren’t much different at all. What’s completely different is the 10-20 yard throws which Wilson is known for not doing.

And again, when you can’t run the ball even against light boxes and all your QB can do is throw deep, just taking deep shots ain’t gonna work against any decent defense.

I'm not going to look at individual weekly passing charts across multiple years, teams, and QB's. Peat already gave you the stats. Both Wilson and Smith have shown to be more aggressive in their previous stops. You know who hasn't for the better part of the last decade? Tomlin.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

You mean nearly a decade ago when he had a HOF QB and the best WR in football? Whoopie. If that's what he needs to not play scared on offense, which apparently it is, then he needs to go.


Bullshit.

They shredded the Bungles defense by passing the ball and it was TOMLIN who said he was scared of their defense all of a sudden so they went run heavy in the second game.

The Philly-Baltimore-KC run was mostly a case of good defenses on top of the other constant issues.

The bengals game is a great example of RW issues. The 1st time he dumped off passes to Warren and Harris they caught 10 passes combined he averaged 10.9 yards that game and attempted 38 passes
The rematch he attempted 31 pass but they took the dump offs to Najaee and Warren away and gave up the mof intermediate stuff he ignores. In the win they had more carries then in the run