OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Ploff wins?!? Fire Tomlin

[Empoleon8771]

For all of the complaints about the offense we have, I really think it comes down to one major thing: Tomlin's philosophy. Any offensive issue you can point at comes from the dated offensive schemes that he has in mind.

This team can't run the ball because the passing game doesn't exist, so teams can load up the box and stop the run. The passing game doesn't exist because this team has spent zero investment on its WRs and they want to play risk free football, based on this idea that they can win with their defense. Wilson and Fields have their flaws for sure, but when their WRs can't get open and the run game is nonexistent due to teams keying on it, how can you even expect them to have success? They're simply not the caliber of QBs that can do that.

That's actually why I'm coming more and more around to handing the reigns over to Fields at this point. I think Wilson is the better QB and passer, but who is he going to pass to? Fields' threat in the running game is something the defense has to respect, so they need to cover both the inside (in case of an inside run) but also the outside (in case Fields breaks away with his legs to the outside). They don't have to respect Wilson's passing game not because of Wilson but because his WRs are dogshit.

Yes, I think so. If I had a theme for dissecting the Steelers' offensive performance this year, it would be "everyone betrayed everybody".

I have to say some of the numbers spark my interest in Fields. He did better in passing situations than I expected. I don't necessarily think he's better than Wilson right now because the numbers are skewed by the types of games they've played, but he's cleaned up better than I expected from Chicago. He'd probably need a better situation than the Steelers are going to provide to clean up all the way but if nobody's offering him one, they might as well give him a go. Hopefully after throwing the kitchen sink and the rest of the kitchen at improving the skill positions this coming off-season.

I noticed this as well in the Wilson discussion from a few days ago, his advanced stats were really interesting despite the Steelers not really letting him sling it much.

 

[Peat]

Re Muth's splits. Worked it out.

56.8% of Wilson's attempts came on 10+. 62.7% of Fields. That apparently isn't exceptional for the NFL based on looking at Jackson, Hurts, Mayfield and Darnold (should get a bigger sample to be sure but even with Burrow, who's probably leading the most pass heavy offence in the NFL, does so on 51% of throws - today I learned just how many NFL throws are from that distance).

So Muth getting 64.1% of his throws on that action isn't *that* startling, but still maybe a little surprising for a guy you'd think the team would want to use frequently (and kinda did).

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Peat]

Re all the talk of conservative offence, I'd like to present my conspiracy theory of the day - Smith is getting his name out there for HC jobs because he's been blindsided by Tomlin's conservatism, and either wants out or wants leverage for more power to tell Tomlin to stick it.

It has zero backing other than I don't think anyone would be surprised if it was later reported to be the case.

For all of the complaints about the offense we have, I really think it comes down to one major thing: Tomlin's philosophy. Any offensive issue you can point at comes from the dated offensive schemes that he has in mind.

This team can't run the ball because the passing game doesn't exist, so teams can load up the box and stop the run. The passing game doesn't exist because this team has spent zero investment on its WRs and they want to play risk free football, based on this idea that they can win with their defense. Wilson and Fields have their flaws for sure, but when their WRs can't get open and the run game is nonexistent due to teams keying on it, how can you even expect them to have success? They're simply not the caliber of QBs that can do that.

That's actually why I'm coming more and more around to handing the reigns over to Fields at this point. I think Wilson is the better QB and passer, but who is he going to pass to? Fields' threat in the running game is something the defense has to respect, so they need to cover both the inside (in case of an inside run) but also the outside (in case Fields breaks away with his legs to the outside). They don't have to respect Wilson's passing game not because of Wilson but because his WRs are dogshit.

Let's not forget the bit where the WR investment is where it is partly due to a previous WR going feral over what the offence is.

Which is something that I think needs to be addressed. I think Tomlin got some ideas about how well he could control WRs when they had Ben and got wild numbers, then thought he could do the same when they had a far more conservative offence. He either needs to pick higher character WRs, or open up the offence to keep them happy.

In any case, I wanted Wilson in part because I think Tomlin would trust him more. Which I think has happened. It made for some very enjoyable days and allowed them to actually win a couple of track meets this year. And going forward, I will actively campaign for QBs Tomlin trusts and giving them talent, so maybe it should be Wilson.

Or maybe he should stop being such a big girl's blouse, trust Fields, and see what happens.

 

[pistolpete11]

That's actually why I'm coming more and more around to handing the reigns over to Fields at this point. I think Wilson is the better QB and passer, but who is he going to pass to? Fields' threat in the running game is something the defense has to respect, so they need to cover both the inside (in case of an inside run) but also the outside (in case Fields breaks away with his legs to the outside). They don't have to respect Wilson's passing game not because of Wilson but because his WRs are dogshit.

If the idea is that "Well, at least Fields can run", I'm not at all interested. That just ensures mediocrity. If it's "Fields made progress and we think he can develop into a legit passer, too", I'm very much skeptical, but I'll listen. We're like 3 decades into the running QBs are the future of the NFL and it has never really panned out. It's become increasing more important, but it's still secondary to being able to throw the ball.

Personally, I don't think the answer is to say we don't have WR, therefore there's no point in bringing back Wilson. I think the answer is to bring in more weapons for Wilson.

....but yes, nothing will really matter until Tomlin lets go of the offense, by choice or by force.

 

[xlm34]

Re all the talk of conservative offence, I'd like to present my conspiracy theory of the day - Smith is getting his name out there for HC jobs because he's been blindsided by Tomlin's conservatism, and either wants out or wants leverage for more power to tell Tomlin to stick it.

It has zero backing other than I don't think anyone would be surprised if it was later reported to be the case.



Let's not forget the bit where the WR investment is where it is partly due to a previous WR going feral over what the offence is.

Which is something that I think needs to be addressed. I think Tomlin got some ideas about how well he could control WRs when they had Ben and got wild numbers, then thought he could do the same when they had a far more conservative offence. He either needs to pick higher character WRs, or open up the offence to keep them happy.

In any case, I wanted Wilson in part because I think Tomlin would trust him more. Which I think has happened. It made for some very enjoyable days and allowed them to actually win a couple of track meets this year. And going forward, I will actively campaign for QBs Tomlin trusts and giving them talent, so maybe it should be Wilson.

Or maybe he should stop being such a big girl's blouse, trust Fields, and see what happens.

I personally would be very surprised. How they try to run this offense is pretty much exactly what I expected from Smith. He’s always been a super predictable, run first guy. The only difference is the passing game looks a little different than some of his past stops which I think is more of a product of having to play Russ ball than anything else.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If the idea is that "Well, at least Fields can run", I'm not at all interested. That just ensures mediocrity. If it's "Fields made progress and we think he can develop into a legit passer, too", I'm very much skeptical, but I'll listen. We're like 3 decades into the running QBs are the future of the NFL and it has never really panned out. It's become increasing more important, but it's still secondary to being able to throw the ball.

Personally, I don't think the answer is to say we don't have WR, therefore there's no point in bringing back Wilson. I think the answer is to bring in more weapons for Wilson.

....but yes, nothing will really matter until Tomlin lets go of the offense, by choice or by force.

I think Fields' passing analytics this year actually looked pretty promising that he can at least be a middle of the road passing QB with an elite running game.

It was a small sample size, but Fields was 16th in EPA/play, 18th in success rate and 13th in CPOE this year. Those numbers aren't astounding, but I feel like those passing results with Fields' running game should yield at least an average starting QB.

It's both that combined with this team being so far away from competing with a pocket passing QB that makes me inclined to go with Fields, at least in the short term. I think the plan should be:

1. Go with Fields as the starter short term
2. Draft a QB in 2026 to sit behind Fields for at least one year
3. Build up the offense around the QB so that the new QB is in a position to succeed once they take over for Fields

 

[xlm34]

If the idea is that "Well, at least Fields can run", I'm not at all interested. That just ensures mediocrity. If it's "Fields made progress and we think he can develop into a legit passer, too", I'm very much skeptical, but I'll listen. We're like 3 decades into the running QBs are the future of the NFL and it has never really panned out. It's become increasing more important, but it's still secondary to being able to throw the ball.

Personally, I don't think the answer is to say we don't have WR, therefore there's no point in bringing back Wilson. I think the answer is to bring in more weapons for Wilson.

....but yes, nothing will really matter until Tomlin lets go of the offense, by choice or by force.

This is a big reason why how Khan handled this WR situation was just so, so bad. They should have made it a priority to figure out the answer to this question this season and have a clearer picture of the QB going into the offseason.

Now we’re looking at going into another season of “Well maybe…” at QB.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is a big reason why how Khan handled this WR situation was just so, so bad. They should have made it a priority to figure out the answer to this question this season and have a clearer picture of the QB going into the offseason.

Now we’re looking at going into another season of “Well maybe…” at QB.

They're going to have another season of "well maybe" at QB because neither Fields or Wilson are the long-term guys. Fields is a decent stopgap but they need to get their actual QB of the future.

This season just showed that they're nowhere even close to contending this year even with significantly improved QB play from the past 2 years.

 

[xlm34]

They're going to have another season of "well maybe" at QB because neither Fields or Wilson are the long-term guys. Fields is a decent stopgap but they need to get their actual QB of the future.

This season just showed that they're nowhere even close to contending this year even with significantly improved QB play from the past 2 years.

You would have the answer of what Wilson look like with a better receiving group though. And if that answer is bad, think it’s a pretty easy choice to just let Fields have a year.

Also I would say Wilson has a 0% chance of being a long term piece and while Fields has a very small chance, it’s higher than 0.

 

[Peat]

is that really him, or is he getting orders from somewhere?

Smith is getting orders.

But I don't believe those orders include "toss that ball all the time" or "feature Cordarelle Pattersson at important moments".

I personally would be very surprised. How they try to run this offense is pretty much exactly what I expected from Smith. He’s always been a super predictable, run first guy. The only difference is the passing game looks a little different than some of his past stops which I think is more of a product of having to play Russ ball than anything else.

The passing game is what I'm getting at. Russ ball and Smith should be compatible. Lots of deep throws. Yeah, Wilson isn't great at MoF... but he can throw there. He's not amazing, but he can. If it's not happening, I would put it on Tomlin's allergy to that more than anything. And Fields threw it there less than anyone, which has no logical reason other than orders from on high.

That said, some of it's predictable, yeah. 10 throws on 1st down a game on average for Wilson/Ridder/2020 Tannehill. That's gross. Even Jackson is doing more than that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You would have the answer of what Wilson look like with a better receiving group though. And if that answer is bad, think it’s a pretty easy choice to just let Fields have a year.

Also I would say Wilson has a 0% chance of being a long term piece and while Fields has a very small chance, it’s higher than 0.

See even with the issues at WR, I don't think this season left any questions about Wilson's ability at this point. He's a check down merchant that still has his patented moonball that can gain chunk yards. I personally view him as a roughly league average starting QB, but others here would argue against that. Even with the lack of talent around him, I think we got a pretty clear picture of who he is and what he has left at this point. IMO it's still decent QB play but not enough for where the rest of this team's offense is.

My desire to go with Fields going forward is really based on 3 things:

1. Fields will likely be a fair bit cheaper which gives you more money to spend at WR.
2. Fields' passing analytics were surprisingly solid this year, to the point where I think he has legitimate intrigue as a passer combined with his elite threat in the running game.
3. Fields' threat of running (specifically to the outside) should make defenses respect the outside run more, which would benefit their RBs and help their running game.

On point #3, I'd like to throw out this stat:

-Harris pre-bye week: 592 yards in 8 games, 4.35 Y/A
-Harris post-bye week: 451 yards in 9 games, 3.55 Y/A

That's not purely with Fields and with Wilson, Fields had 6 of 8 starts pre-bye week and Harris had 2 great games against the Jets and Giants with Wilson at QB. That said, I don't think it's a coincidence that the passing game completely disappeared in the second half (which I mostly blame the horrid WR group for) and it hurt Harris' production in the running game. Especially considering Pickens missed a couple of games, teams didn't need to worry about being beat in the passing game so they just keyed in on the run. In past years we blamed the bad QB play on that, but this year I blame the bad WR talent on that.

 

[xlm34]

Smith is getting orders.

But I don't believe those orders include "toss that ball all the time" or "feature Cordarelle Pattersson at important moments".



The passing game is what I'm getting at. Russ ball and Smith should be compatible. Lots of deep throws. Yeah, Wilson isn't great at MoF... but he can throw there. He's not amazing, but he can. If it's not happening, I would put it on Tomlin's allergy to that more than anything. And Fields threw it there less than anyone, which has no logical reason other than orders from on high.

That said, some of it's predictable, yeah. 10 throws on 1st down a game on average for Wilson/Ridder/2020 Tannehill. That's gross. Even Jackson is doing more than that.

I thought the lack of MOF usage has always been a complaint with Wilson offenses and I’m pretty sure that was a thing about Fields too also though I’m not sure. If I had to throw out a guess about any sort of irritation from Smith about Tomlin, it would be the QB situation though. It really seemed like Smith was one of the guys in the building that wanted to stick with Fields.

 

[Peat]

I thought the lack of MOF usage has always been a complaint with Wilson offenses and I’m pretty sure that was a thing about Fields too also though I’m not sure. If I had to throw out a guess about any sort of irritation from Smith about Tomlin, it would be the QB situation though. It really seemed like Smith was one of the guys in the building that wanted to stick with Fields.

Also a fair point.

Actually, what I'd meant to say would be really chafing his nips is the idea of the attacking strategy to beat the Bengals getting changed because Tomlin got afraid of their defence and decided the offence couldn't win the game.

Still. As I said, no real basis. But would it really surprise you, given how this season has gone?

 

[JTG]

The only honest glimmer in this game is that for some reason Mike Tomlin has figured out Lamar Jackson. That being said, I think Lamar is a freight train this year.

I honestly think the Ravens could win it this season if Henry and Lamar stay healthy.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I personally would be very surprised. How they try to run this offense is pretty much exactly what I expected from Smith. He’s always been a super predictable, run first guy. The only difference is the passing game looks a little different than some of his past stops which I think is more of a product of having to play Russ ball than anything else.

the passing game is similar to his Matt Ryan year in Atlanta

 

[pistolpete11]

I think Fields' passing analytics this year actually looked pretty promising that he can at least be a middle of the road passing QB with an elite running game.

It was a small sample size, but Fields was 16th in EPA/play, 18th in success rate and 13th in CPOE this year. Those numbers aren't astounding, but I feel like those passing results with Fields' running game should yield at least an average starting QB.

It's both that combined with this team being so far away from competing with a pocket passing QB that makes me inclined to go with Fields, at least in the short term. I think the plan should be:

1. Go with Fields as the starter short term
2. Draft a QB in 2026 to sit behind Fields for at least one year
3. Build up the offense around the QB so that the new QB is in a position to succeed once they take over for Fields

It was a small sample size and I think they dumbed it down and didn't ask him to do much, even more than they did with Wilson. Not his fault, but that's the way I saw it. I think that would get exposed if/when there is more tape on the offense and/or when they have to open it up and score points. I just have more faith Wilson can win them games with his arm.

Beyond the head coach, I don't agree they are that far away, or rather, I think there's enough potential there that I'd rather try to win and realize they aren't there yet than plan on a rebuild and say "Oh shit, if only we had a better QB!" They need a WR (2 if they trade Pickens), a RB, and a CB. The rest are depth/rotational/planning for the future type of pieces. They'll be limited by the QB as well, but I think they need to try to win while they still have Heyward and Watt. If they go with Fields, I'm not going to boycott or anything, but in my view, Wilson gives them a better chance to win playoff games than Fields.

But between the Pens and Steelers, though, I feel like a broken record....nothing really matters if they stick with the same head coach.

 

[Peat]

It was a small sample size and I think they dumbed it down and didn't ask him to do much, even more than they did with Wilson. Not his fault, but that's the way I saw it. I think that would get exposed if/when there is more tape on the offense and/or when they have to open it up and score points. I just have more faith Wilson can win them games with his arm.

Beyond the head coach, I don't agree they are that far away, or rather, I think there's enough potential there that I'd rather try to win and realize they aren't there yet than plan on a rebuild and say "Oh shit, if only we had a better QB!" They need a WR (2 if they trade Pickens), a RB, and a CB. The rest are depth/rotational/planning for the future type of pieces. They'll be limited by the QB as well, but I think they need to try to win while they still have Heyward and Watt. If they go with Fields, I'm not going to boycott or anything, but in my view, Wilson gives them a better chance to win playoff games than Fields.

But between the Pens and Steelers, though, I feel like a broken record....nothing really matters if they stick with the same head coach.

I fully agree about Fields benefitting from not being asked to do as much as Wilson. I am not 100% certain that Fields can't, and I have less faith in Wilson being able to do it when opening up than I did after the first Bengals game, but this is a very true point to be considered in terms of comparing the two.

In terms of trying to be the best this team can be, particularly since we know all rebuilding plans are as realistic as an all vegan branch of KFC -

They got to shore up the pass defence bad. The best plan, much as I grimace to say it, is to hope they can be a contrarian and win based on a tough defence and good enough offence, but that's got to start with a genuinely tough defence and that can't happen with middle of the league passing yards allowed/sacks/pressure percentage and the rest of it. Being gloomy, some of the numbers make it look like the Watt/Fitzpatrick/Heyward window has gone because maybe they've aged out of being what they were. But, hoping for the best, they need more help. I can't believe I'm saying this, but they've got to look hard at a new DL and two new DBs. One guy to push Ogunjobi in the rotation (or, if the right guy is there in FA, out altogether) and hopefully provide more pass rush juice because they can rotate more. Then one guy to replace Donte Jackson, one guy to replace Beanie Bishop (who'd still be a nice rotational piece to have, but can't have the starting jersey again). I don't know if that's practical, but that's what they need.

Offence... well, you said most of it, but the other big thing is that the OL has to grow up very fast. If they are going to be a run heavy team that also has a QB who holds onto the ball a lot, then they need to be a top 10 unit. Easier said that done at their age though.

And, tbh, much as I don't to give him the money... realistically feels very difficult to do a Pickens trade that lets the team advance short term. Guess we'll see what they do there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not that I had any strong feelings towards Beck but he's actually not going to be in the draft this year.

 

[pistolpete11]

I fully agree about Fields benefitting from not being asked to do as much as Wilson. I am not 100% certain that Fields can't, and I have less faith in Wilson being able to do it when opening up than I did after the first Bengals game, but this is a very true point to be considered in terms of comparing the two.

In terms of trying to be the best this team can be, particularly since we know all rebuilding plans are as realistic as an all vegan branch of KFC -

They got to shore up the pass defence bad. The best plan, much as I grimace to say it, is to hope they can be a contrarian and win based on a tough defence and good enough offence, but that's got to start with a genuinely tough defence and that can't happen with middle of the league passing yards allowed/sacks/pressure percentage and the rest of it. Being gloomy, some of the numbers make it look like the Watt/Fitzpatrick/Heyward window has gone because maybe they've aged out of being what they were. But, hoping for the best, they need more help. I can't believe I'm saying this, but they've got to look hard at a new DL and two new DBs. One guy to push Ogunjobi in the rotation (or, if the right guy is there in FA, out altogether) and hopefully provide more pass rush juice because they can rotate more. Then one guy to replace Donte Jackson, one guy to replace Beanie Bishop (who'd still be a nice rotational piece to have, but can't have the starting jersey again). I don't know if that's practical, but that's what they need.

Offence... well, you said most of it, but the other big thing is that the OL has to grow up very fast. If they are going to be a run heavy team that also has a QB who holds onto the ball a lot, then they need to be a top 10 unit. Easier said that done at their age though.

And, tbh, much as I don't to give him the money... realistically feels very difficult to do a Pickens trade that lets the team advance short term. Guess we'll see what they do there.

I think a lot of the defense's struggles are for the same reason as the offense. Predicable. They line up and hope they can beat their guy. They've got some guys that are good enough to do that a lot of the time, but when they go up against good teams that also have good guys and are schemed better, they fall short. It's why they've been getting torched by good teams for years and haven't won a playoff game in forever.

I don't think they need much personnel wise. A CB to replace Jackson is probably a must, but that's all I'd call critical. Upgrade on Larry O would be nice. Upgrade on Bishop would be good, but I think the move is to sign a vet CB and draft one early. Don't forget about Trice, too, if he can stay healthy, he's got potential. It's not the best CB group in the NFL, but their front 7 and S *should be more than good enough to make up for it.

On offense, the line needs to grow up, but Jones-Seumalo-Frazier-McCormick/FA-Fautanu has got big potential. I know people are down on Jones, but it strikes me as a Dotson situation. They drafted him to be a LT and then are upset he's not performing at RT. RB might be the easiest hole to fill in football. A WR is a must-must. If they trade Pickens, they need another one, but they'd get more capital that they could sue in another trade.

They won't do it, but I saw a headline (probably from an unreliable source), that linked Tomlin to the Bears. Could you imagine? Getting 10 OV for Tomlin who we want gone anyway? Draft one of the top WR there. Use our own 1st on a CB, 2nd on D-line, 3rd on a running back. It has the potential to completely transform the team in one draft. Even if they could only pull their second, it would be huge.

 

[JTG]

HF user experience has generally declined over the years. This new setup is awesome.

I'm not sure if this was posted before because I don't remember seeing it. It's from October - Players Tribune piece from Muth

Hand the Ball to the Damn Referee, Patrick | By Pat Freiermuth

From the day that I walked into this culture, I knew that it was different. It’s not a cliché. It’s real.

www.theplayerstribune.com

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Cheers man. So the big difference here presumably is most man to man coverages aren't running two high which makes the moon ball a lot more practical?

Honestly, at this point, I'm trying to work out why NFL defences ever run Man except as a way to try and confuse people.

From the QB perspective, accuracy is probably the most consistent way to beat man coverage. I wouldn't want to play man against Brees. But against zone, the QB can throw to "spots" or holes in the zone. So if a QB has good protection, even if he's not an accurate thrower, he can simply wait until the a guy is entering that hole. Man coverage can also disrupt timing of routes, which is why the Patriots offense when they had Brady would rip apart zone but struggle against press man as he wasn't particularly accurate on deeper passes.

 

[WickedWrister]

Not that I had any strong feelings towards Beck but he's actually not going to be in the draft this year.

Smart decision. His stock took a hit this year with mediocre play and the elbow injury.

 

[JTG]

Smart decision. His stock took a hit this year with mediocre play and the elbow injury.

...why wouldn't he just stay at Georgia?

 

[WickedWrister]

...why wouldn't he just stay at Georgia?

I was referring more to the decision to stay in school another year, not necessarily leaving Georgia I guess. I wonder if he could've lost his spot on the depth chart with the injury?