OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Ploff wins?!? Fire Tomlin

[pistolpete11]

The No. 1 Flaw With Russell Wilson

Sometimes, when watching tape, an idea forms in your head. But the eye test doesn’t always tell the story. That’s why this site was built on marrying tape and statistics. We don’t shun the data, and we definitely don’t turn our noses up at the film. Both have their place, and the best...

steelersdepot.com

Ope.

I appreciate the attempt at these types of analysis, but many times they are incomplete and/or the logic of their conclusions leaves me scratching my head.

They say that most teams primarily play zone now, but that other QBs are likely better against zone. If most QBs were better against zone, wouldn't most defenses primarily play man? Would need to see some more comparisons to other QB's there.

I think one of the reasons teams play zone is because it's less likely that you give up the big play. So it makes sense he has less TD's against zone than man (especially since they removed the goal line situations)

Conversely, he has 1 more INT against zone than man, but they even say he was far more dropbacks against zone. It would make more sense to have TD/INT stats as percentages than raw numbers.

Being actually more accurate against zone also makes me question what more he could be doing? Is he missing guys that would result in bigger plays? Or is he taking what the defense is giving him?

I dunno. I'm not dismissing it, but I'm not sold on him being bad against zone, or rather uniquely bad against zone, based on this article.

 

[pistolpete11]

Yeah I mean if the idea all along was for him to serve as a secondary deep threat, totally fine, but they should’ve gotten a chain mover as well. I suspect Wilson was slated for that role, but it just didn’t work out for whatever reason (3rd round rookie is a thin bet). Right now CA3 and Van Jeff are doing their best to serve in that role, but they’re rotational players at best on a good offense.

Khan has made some great moves, but he has failed big time on the WR front.

I think they could be targeting Muth more in those move the chain situations, but yes, Khan failed in building out the WR room for this year.

I honestly think they weren't expecting to or didn't care if they did compete this year. Their biggest moves all fell into their laps (Wilson, Fields, Queen). Lowballing Aiyuk felt more like "Yeah, we'll take him if we can get him relatively cheap". Then Williams was like a "Oh shit, we're in a pretty good spot. We've got to get somebody." Nothing ever felt like "Hey, we're serious. We're going for it". Still feels like a rebuild year with some stop gaps so Mikey can continue his NHALS streak.

We'll see, though. Maybe Khan is just really conservative and is never going to overpay for anyone.

 

[Peat]

Being actually more accurate against zone also makes me question what more he could be doing? Is he missing guys that would result in bigger plays? Or is he taking what the defense is giving him?

Fair points on all of it, I've commented suggesting they add more stats but just on this -

The Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt and Depth of Target suggests he's making a bunch of short easy throws, which also fits his checkdown rate from last season and the eye test.

Whether that means he's missing guys or is taking what the defence is giving him I could not say, but the safe answer is probably both. I also believe there's data suggesting Wilson is great when hitting his first read and falls off the moment that doesn't happen, which seems tied to that although again, it doesn't answer the question of whether he's missing guys or there is no guy so he has to checkdown (assuming he does it in time).

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I don't know what the analysis says, but it seems to me what has gone away from Russ' game is the big play on the move. (Yes, I realize I couldn't even remember a single play from last Saturday's game accurately, so add a second grain to the grin of salt you should always take my posts with.)

I know they've played generally "better" teams so maybe the rush/pursuit is betterm but it seems like there were a bunch of plays early on where we were all "look at old Russ!" Maybe he's also just not benefitting from being fresh, so I'm not calling for him to be trying to "make plays with his feet." But maybe Smith should have designed some more on-purpose rollouts?

Dunno.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Some. I get the concept of a defender having a zone vs having a man. But some of the details of it are lost on me.

Decent video explanation:




From Google. Generally accurate statements here:

The main difference between zone and man coverage in the NFL is how defenders are assigned to cover opposing players:
Man coverage: Each defender is assigned to cover a specific opposing receiver.
Zone coverage: Defenders are assigned to cover specific areas of the field.
Here are some other differences between zone and man coverage:
Stability
Man coverage is more stable year-to-year than zone coverage.
Effectiveness
Zone coverage is more effective against offenses that use quick passes or mismatches.
Usage
NFL teams have been using zone coverage more and man coverage less against passing plays. In 2019, 37.2% of plays used man defense, but by 2023 that number had dropped to 28.5%.
Scheme
Zone coverage schemes are named based on how many players are assigned to cover the deep zone. For example, in Cover 2, two players are assigned to cover the deep zone, and in Cover 3, three players are assigned.
Identifying coverage
You can tell if a team is using man or zone coverage by looking at the safeties. If there's a single safety in the middle of the field, it's usually man coverage. If the safeties are split and lined up deep, it's usually zone coverage.
Most football teams use a combination of both man and zone coverag

 

[MrBrightside]

Fair points on all of it, I've commented suggesting they add more stats but just on this -

The Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt and Depth of Target suggests he's making a bunch of short easy throws, which also fits his checkdown rate from last season and the eye test.

Whether that means he's missing guys or is taking what the defence is giving him I could not say, but the safe answer is probably both. I also believe there's data suggesting Wilson is great when hitting his first read and falls off the moment that doesn't happen, which seems tied to that although again, it doesn't answer the question of whether he's missing guys or there is no guy so he has to checkdown (assuming he does it in time).

So the same poster who says he doesn't understand the differences between man coverage and zone coverage is breaking down the significance of ADOT and ANY/A and what it means?

Everyone knows Wilson relies on chucking it deep and/or checking it down with little in between. That's always been the case.

 

[Peat]

Cheers man. So the big difference here presumably is most man to man coverages aren't running two high which makes the moon ball a lot more practical?

Honestly, at this point, I'm trying to work out why NFL defences ever run Man except as a way to try and confuse people.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I think they could be targeting Muth more in those move the chain situations, but yes, Khan failed in building out the WR room for this year.

I honestly think they weren't expecting to or didn't care if they did compete this year. Their biggest moves all fell into their laps (Wilson, Fields, Queen). Lowballing Aiyuk felt more like "Yeah, we'll take him if we can get him relatively cheap". Then Williams was like a "Oh shit, we're in a pretty good spot. We've got to get somebody." Nothing ever felt like "Hey, we're serious. We're going for it". Still feels like a rebuild year with some stop gaps so Mikey can continue his NHALS streak.

We'll see, though. Maybe Khan is just really conservative and is never going to overpay for anyone.

Couple of points:

In Smith's offense, TE's are featured more prominently than anything. You have your main WR, and the other WR's get scraps. The TE's in his offense have essentially taken away production from WRs 2 through 4 on the depth chart

Believe they had this vision:

1. GP as the main WR.
2. Muth as the main TE.
3. Washington as the secondary TE. I feel they failed either to a) recognize his ability to do this or b) felt he was more valuable as a blocker.

Either way they failed to get RW another weapon in the passing game. Because there should be a TE or another WR in this passing attack. So that is the limitation of the offense right now.

If I'm a DC I know this about the Steelers offense:

1. They'll run into stacked boxes
2. They rarely throw on 1st or 2nd down
3. You need to shade coverage towards GP, but you don't necessarily have to double him. If he's sprinting- he's on a go or post route. They rarely run a comeback with him
4. They rarely throw over the middle
5. On 4th down they won't throw it

I just listed 5 tenents of this offense and I'm a casual fan. So let's be liberal and say that I spend 3.5 watching the game and then another hour or so looking deeper into some highlights.
Let's call that 7 hours on the very high end.

WTF do you think any DC is going to figure out when he's working 10 times that figure? This offense is predictable and you can say that about any Tomlin offense for the past 6 years or so. Pathetic how he self limits this team.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Honestly, at this point, I'm trying to work out why NFL defences ever run Man except as a way to try and confuse people.

Many teams run man on the back end when they blitz a LB or DB. There are certainly exceptions to this (zone blitz), but I'm trying to keep this discussion simple.

PS- another way to determine man vs zone? If the offense sends a guy in motion and a 1 single defender immediately follows/mirrors the motion man, it's 99% likely man coverage.

Don't be afraid of asking questions. It's good to learn and I'm happy to explain as best I can.

 

[End of Line]

Many teams run man on the back end when they blitz a LB or DB. There are certainly exceptions to this (zone blitz), but I'm trying to keep this discussion simple.

PS- another way to determine man vs zone? If the offense sends a guy in motion and a 1 single defender immediately follows/mirrors the motion man, it's 99% likely man coverage.

Don't be afraid of asking questions. It's good to learn and I'm happy to explain as best I can.

Another good indicator of man vs zone is how far off the CB’s are from the WR on the LOS. At least I’ve always viewed it that way.

 

[The Old Master]

Honestly, sometimes the biggest surprise about the Steelers offence is that they scored so many points when so many of the metrics say they were awful. So much of the eye test agrees with it too. I guess when they were hot, they were super hot.

I can't say I have strong feelings either way on Smith. Or maybe that's I have strong feelings both ways that cancel out. I can believe he'd be a great OC with great players, but his persistence in feeding bit players at big moments and stubborness in forcing plays that the team couldn't execute really grated.

is that really him, or is he getting orders from somewhere?

 

[JTG]

Williams hasn’t been the same since his knee injury. DHop is a possession receiver that would help us move the chains - something we don’t really have at the moment. I guess my point is the two main pieces they brought in to address WR - Williams and Wilson are not contributing to the level that we need them to. It’s just a badly designed team.

I don't think that would change anything honestly. If Williams and the rest of the crew were dropping balls or something...sure. Russ doesn't look to a 2nd receiver.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Another good indicator of man vs zone is how far off the CB’s are from the WR on the LOS. At least I’ve always viewed it that way.

In a general standpoint you're right.
But DC's have figured out that is too easy of a tell so they'll mix it up depending on:

-Opposing WR strengths/weaknesses
-DB's own strengths/weaknesses
- Down and distance

 

[Peat]

I got curious and looked up Muth's splits.

Pat Freiermuth 2024 Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Pat Freiermuth 2024 Splits

www.pro-football-reference.com

I have no context for this but it seems weird that

a) About 66% of his targets came with 10+ yards to go.
b) Over 66% of his targets came when the team were losing

Feels like they basically only called Muth's name when they were in the shit. Which is... weird? I get you're going to be more likely to run protecting a lead, and I wouldn't be surprised if they spent more time behind in games, but to that extent? With your second receiver? Austin's usage very similar, Pickens a bit more spread out.

 

[JTG]

Cheers man. So the big difference here presumably is most man to man coverages aren't running two high which makes the moon ball a lot more practical?

Honestly, at this point, I'm trying to work out why NFL defences ever run Man except as a way to try and confuse people.

Old school Pittsburgh football was the front 7 were purely there to pass rush and the corners, by playing man, were there to interrupt timing making it more favorable for the OLBs to get to the QB. If you aren't blitzing heavy...no reason to play man.

Over simplified...but that's how I think of it.

EDIT: Downside of man is if you have a quick darty receiver, he's typically going up against a bigger CB if they are man. The NFL moving to a passing league and guys coming in with track speed naturally changed the way that defenses played. If a CB can't jam his WR, it's going to be a long day.

 

[End of Line]

In a general standpoint you're right.
But DC's have figured out that is too easy of a tell so they'll mix it up depending on:

-Opposing WR strengths/weaknesses
-DB's own strengths/weaknesses
- Down and distance

Oh Ik I was just speaking generally. One thing we forget about during LeBeau’s later years was when he’d have the corners playing 8yds off the LOS and the would get killed underneath.

 

[pistolpete11]

Fair points on all of it, I've commented suggesting they add more stats but just on this -

The Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt and Depth of Target suggests he's making a bunch of short easy throws, which also fits his checkdown rate from last season and the eye test.

Whether that means he's missing guys or is taking what the defence is giving him I could not say, but the safe answer is probably both. I also believe there's data suggesting Wilson is great when hitting his first read and falls off the moment that doesn't happen, which seems tied to that although again, it doesn't answer the question of whether he's missing guys or there is no guy so he has to checkdown (assuming he does it in time).

How does any of that compare to other QB's, though?

Again, a lot of times zone is designed to not give up the big play. Especially when they are in prevent defense, they are happy to give you those 0-5 yard throws. So I'd expect that trend is pretty typical for all QB's. I think Russ is pretty risk adverse, so I'd guess he's quicker to check down than most, but whether that's the right call or not is dependent on the situation.

I'd also expect all QB's to be better on their first read. It means the play worked as designed. If it doesn't then you start running into whether the line holds up to give the QB enough time to find his second read. From my eye test, the Steelers line doesn't on top of Russ not having a great feel for where to be in the pocket to give himself more time on top of the Steelers not really having WR that get open. Even Pickens, as good as he is, isn't great at getting open IMO. Maybe the advanced stats say something different, but most of his catches are in pretty tight coverage.

Couple of points:

In Smith's offense, TE's are featured more prominently than anything. You have your main WR, and the other WR's get scraps. The TE's in his offense have essentially taken away production from WRs 2 through 4 on the depth chart

Believe they had this vision:

1. GP as the main WR.
2. Muth as the main TE.
3. Washington as the secondary TE. I feel they failed either to a) recognize his ability to do this or b) felt he was more valuable as a blocker.

Either way they failed to get RW another weapon in the passing game. Because there should be a TE or another WR in this passing attack. So that is the limitation of the offense right now.

If I'm a DC I know this about the Steelers offense:

1. They'll run into stacked boxes
2. They rarely throw on 1st or 2nd down
3. You need to shade coverage towards GP, but you don't necessarily have to double him. If he's sprinting- he's on a go or post route. They rarely run a comeback with him
4. They rarely throw over the middle
5. On 4th down they won't throw it

I just listed 5 tenents of this offense and I'm a casual fan. So let's be liberal and say that I spend 3.5 watching the game and then another hour or so looking deeper into some highlights.
Let's call that 7 hours on the very high end.

WTF do you think any DC is going to figure out when he's working 10 times that figure? This offense is predictable and you can say that about any Tomlin offense for the past 6 years or so. Pathetic how he self limits this team.

I thought Muth would be targeted more in Smith's offense and frankly I think he would be if it wasn't for Tomlin and Russ. I don't think Russ can see the middle of the field because he's so short, so he stays away from there and Tomlin's going on like QB #6 that doesn't throw across the middle because he's afraid to turn the ball over.

That's why I thought Williams was a good target, though. They need another outside the numbers WR. They just refuse to use him.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I thought Muth would be targeted more in Smith's offense and frankly I think he would be if it wasn't for Tomlin and Russ. I don't think Russ can see the middle of the field because he's so short, so he stays away from there and Tomlin's going on like QB #6 that doesn't throw across the middle because he's afraid to turn the ball over.

That's why I thought Williams was a good target, though. They need another outside the numbers WR. They just refuse to use him.

I think it's a combination of a few things:

1. RW has never really been a MOF thrower. His height may be a factor there
2. The design of this offense forever is they rarely throw to MOF anyway and that is where Muth makes a difference. That's why it was a head scratcher they extended him. I like the player, but I don't like the fit, ya know?
3. Once they decide to throw to Muth it's like an obligatory "check the box that we threw to the TE in the MOF and move on to the next play". Even if successful waybe we'll throw it to him again, but don't hold your breath.

 

[pistolpete11]

I think it's a combination of a few things:

1. RW has never really been a MOF thrower. His height may be a factor there
2. The design of this offense forever is they rarely throw to MOF anyway and that is where Muth makes a difference. That's why it was a head scratcher they extended him. I like the player, but I don't like the fit, ya know?
3. Once they decide to throw to Muth it's like an obligatory "check the box that we threw to the TE in the MOF and move on to the next play". Even if successful waybe we'll throw it to him again, but don't hold your breath.

Connecting the dots between this and Peat's point about them throwing to Muth when it's 10+ to go and/or they are trialing...they get desperate enough that they are willing to risk a turnover.

 

[Peat]

How does any of that compare to other QB's, though?

Again, a lot of times zone is designed to not give up the big play. Especially when they are in prevent defense, they are happy to give you those 0-5 yard throws. So I'd expect that trend is pretty typical for all QB's. I think Russ is pretty risk adverse, so I'd guess he's quicker to check down than most, but whether that's the right call or not is dependent on the situation.

I'd also expect all QB's to be better on their first read. It means the play worked as designed. If it doesn't then you start running into whether the line holds up to give the QB enough time to find his second read. From my eye test, the Steelers line doesn't on top of Russ not having a great feel for where to be in the pocket to give himself more time on top of the Steelers not really having WR that get open. Even Pickens, as good as he is, isn't great at getting open IMO. Maybe the advanced stats say something different, but most of his catches are in pretty tight coverage.

I need to start saving these charts. The first read thing - I think, iirc - is based on a chart showing all QBs in the league and that Wilson goes from one of the best to one of the worst compared to his peers.

Similarly, while we don't have QB vs zone stats that I know of, Wilson loving the checkdown in Denver was on a chart where he was miles clear of the next QB. Actually, jfortgang might, he had them earlier in the season.

Ah. Now there's a dagger to the Steelers Depot's analysis



Glad I looked for that. No idea who's right though as those numbers are not mutually compatible...

 

[JTG]

I think this year was good for Fields. There hasn't been enough progress with Russ. Move forward with Fields and let's sink or swim. At least he can run, and there are many plays where if Russ had the internal clock to run, it could have potentially changed the outcome - particularly against the Bengals.

And I like Muth as a player also, but they don't use him and he's not a great blocker. I'd rather have a guy like Mayer for LV where he can block like a lineman but also get go out and get a ball...or like Darnell Washington.

Whatever.

 

[Peat]

A few other interesting charts from that source





Open these WRs are not



Here's the one showing Wilson is pretty good when throwing to his first read



Tell me you think the Steelers OL had a tough ride without telling me they had a tough ride

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Theres plays were we have guys in the mof but RW barely gets off his 1st read. Teams are confusing him post snap.

I think this year was good for Fields. There hasn't been enough progress with Russ. Move forward with Fields and let's sink or swim. At least he can run, and there are many plays where if Russ had the internal clock to run, it could have potentially changed the outcome - particularly against the Bengals.

And I like Muth as a player also, but they don't use him and he's not a great blocker. I'd rather have a guy like Mayer for LV where he can block like a lineman but also get go out and get a ball...or like Darnell Washington.

Whatever.

Washington isn’t really a chain mover receiver . Muth would better served doing what Geski is doing in cincy as a big slot

 

[Empoleon8771]

A few other interesting charts from that source

Open these WRs are not



Tell me you think the Steelers OL had a tough ride without telling me they had a tough ride

These issues feel pretty related tbh. Both Wilson and Fields are known for holding onto the ball for too long, but their WRs being so shit at getting open means there aren't opportunities for Wilson and Fields to actually move the ball.

It's not "holding onto the ball for too long and missing open targets", it's "holding onto the ball for too long because no one is open".

 

[Peat]

These issues feel pretty related tbh. Both Wilson and Fields are known for holding onto the ball for too long, but their WRs being so shit at getting open means there aren't opportunities for Wilson and Fields to actually move the ball.

It's not "holding onto the ball for too long and missing open targets", it's "holding onto the ball for too long because no one is open".

Yes, I think so. If I had a theme for dissecting the Steelers' offensive performance this year, it would be "everyone betrayed everybody".

I have to say some of the numbers spark my interest in Fields. He did better in passing situations than I expected. I don't necessarily think he's better than Wilson right now because the numbers are skewed by the types of games they've played, but he's cleaned up better than I expected from Chicago. He'd probably need a better situation than the Steelers are going to provide to clean up all the way but if nobody's offering him one, they might as well give him a go. Hopefully after throwing the kitchen sink and the rest of the kitchen at improving the skill positions this coming off-season.