OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: 5 and 2 Justin who? Hand the Fields to Wilson

[bigdaddyk88]

Dontae Jackson is fine as a CB2.
Minkah is a solid FS
Elliot was one of the best ever FA pickups I can remember next to Farrior
JPJ had some sophomore bumps.

This CB group is beyond fine and probably one of the stronger groups than I ever remember. Certainly better than last season.

The struggles are scheme driven. Ie the pass rush isn't getting home. Why? Because they insist on lining TJ Watt up in the same spot 99% of the time making the defense woefully predictable (just like the offense).

They don't use Watt/Herbig/Highsmith in packages together
This defense is unimaginative and Austin is gonna be the scapegoat for Tomlin's failings.

It isn’t fine they have 0 depth at cb trice is hurt again. Jackson can’t play m2m we saw kc pick on him with Watson. He gets safety help often against Cincy he will have Chase. If you can’t get up and press the wr they get a free running start your not getting home upfront in less than 2 seconds. Neither NB option is good and you need 3 guys in a passing league. Yes the starting Safeties are good but Kazee is garbage

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Najee is in that Dowdle or Pollard tier of RB where the stats are there because of volume but they're easily replaceable by some 3rd rounder in the draft. It's simply not worth signing JAGs like najee to a second contract.

And a team will more playmakers will pay him and be happy. Jordan love David Montgomery heck Arizona and Carolina love Hubbard and Connor.
Dowdle numbers have increased because they use a fb.
Warren is fine like Brown is in Cincinnati if you have multiple pass catchers and play makers

 

[Peat]

You're correct that ypc isn't clean. Because a RB gets punished in his YPC for say a 1 to 2 yard TD run.

But it's still a fairly good ballpark measure whether a RB is good or not. And I disagree with those who are using aggregate yards (1k/1.5K/etc) to measure a RB's effectiveness. If you get 500 carries, you should absolutely be getting 1000 yards.

It's better than just saying "1000 yards, boom".

But I think there's sufficient wriggle room between it and the truth that I like to supplement it with a bunch of other stats.

 

[WickedWrister]

While I favour efficiency to raw numbers, the thing is the main way we do efficiency - YPC - is still pretty raw itself. Not only does it miss out a ton of context as to what's happening on each carry, it doesn't tell us stuff like how is the RB affecting momentum - is he getting lots of big runs (if we call that 10+ or 20+ then yes for Najee)? Is he getting stopped behind the line a lot and wasting two downs to go two yards (never seen stats but suspect this is also a Najee special)? Which I think is quite important.

Fwiw, on December 19th, Najee Harris was running for more yards than expected.

Not that this modest bump over expected shows he's great or anything. There's a decent number of RBs who were expected to do as bad but did even better. But it does suggest that the O-Line and playcalling have buried him, which is obviously correct since I believed that already.

Yeah, RYOE tries to account for the context that YPC is lacking... and he's got 9 yards more than expected according to the NextGenStats model, like 0.04 yards over expected per attempt. It's not hyperbole to say he's among the most average running backs in the NFL this year lol. Actually Kyren Williams remarkably has exactly 0 RYOE so by this metric it's him.

I do think the OL and playcalling have been better this year than in 2021-2022 when Najee had near league worst efficiency numbers. So he's put up slightly better numbers as the OL has marginally improved, although it's looking like post-bye 2023 was his best stretch to date. It's a cliche but he get's pretty much whatever is blocked for him and not much more. Matches the eye test that says he's not very explosive but is probably a pain in the ass to have to tackle 25 times a game.

He's not as bad as his haters make him out to be but I do think that with the gift of hindsight we can say that it wasn't a very good use of draft capital.

 

[pistolpete11]

While I favour efficiency to raw numbers, the thing is the main way we do efficiency - YPC - is still pretty raw itself. Not only does it miss out a ton of context as to what's happening on each carry, it doesn't tell us stuff like how is the RB affecting momentum - is he getting lots of big runs (if we call that 10+ or 20+ then yes for Najee)? Is he getting stopped behind the line a lot and wasting two downs to go two yards (never seen stats but suspect this is also a Najee special)? Which I think is quite important.

Fwiw, on December 19th, Najee Harris was running for more yards than expected.

Not that this modest bump over expected shows he's great or anything. There's a decent number of RBs who were expected to do as bad but did even better. But it does suggest that the O-Line and playcalling have buried him, which is obviously correct since I believed that already.

I agree all stats need context, but expected YPC is based on "position and speed of players at time of handoff". What the f*** does that even mean? I'd assume Harris is slow when he gets the ball, so he's being 'rewarded' with a lower expected YPC? I dunno. Sounds like many of these advanced stats that give a definitive name to a stat, but that misses a lot of context itself.

My eye test says the Steelers offense is predicable, the O-line is mediocre at best, and Harris lacks the speed, change of direction, and vision to hit the holes that are there. I'm not against bringing him back, but I'm not paying him big money to do it.

 

[WickedWrister]

I agree all stats need context, but expected YPC is based on "position and speed of players at time of handoff". What the f*** does that even mean? I'd assume Harris is slow when he gets the ball, so he's being 'rewarded' with a lower expected YPC? I dunno. Sounds like many of these advanced stats that give a definitive name to a stat, but that misses a lot of context itself.

My eye test says the Steelers offense is predicable, the O-line is mediocre at best, and Harris lacks the speed, change of direction, and vision to hit the holes that are there. I'm not against bringing him back, but I'm not paying him big money to do it.

I'm by no means a data scientists but they basically built a model that predicts the likelihood to gain a certain amount of yards based on the position, speed, and direction of all 22 players on the field. It's not a single point estimate, more like a distribution of a range of outcomes. It tries to account for the defensive formations (8+ men in the box) and yes, time spent behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know if "rewarded" is the right way to put it but slower moving things should be expected to travel less distance than faster moving things, right?

 

[WickedWrister]

In other words it's NOT saying "Oh Najee Harris is in the game, we're expecting 3.9 yards on this next attempt". It's saying "This player with the ball is traveling 17 mph and there's 2 defenders 10 feet from him on this play when he breaks the line of scrimmage, we think there's a 99% chance he's going to get 3.9 yards".

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Peat]

I agree all stats need context, but expected YPC is based on "position and speed of players at time of handoff". What the f*** does that even mean? I'd assume Harris is slow when he gets the ball, so he's being 'rewarded' with a lower expected YPC? I dunno. Sounds like many of these advanced stats that give a definitive name to a stat, but that misses a lot of context itself.

My eye test says the Steelers offense is predicable, the O-line is mediocre at best, and Harris lacks the speed, change of direction, and vision to hit the holes that are there. I'm not against bringing him back, but I'm not paying him big money to do it.

I mean I have no f***ing clue Or I could say what WW said, but still have no clue because what's the difference in speeds over 4 yards? Which player makes the most difference at this stage - the RB, an OL, the defender? A QB on an option play?

And even there, yeah, it misses a ton of context which is why I like shit like adjusted EPA. Beyond the stuff you say - what about every time an OL is in the perfect place to make a block but whiffs? Or a WR/TE does? I don't mind expected goals in hockey - an average shooter scores X of the time from here in these circumstances.

So very much fwiw. Why I like to use a bunch of stats and try and find out why they disagree with each other if they do. And as I said, part of why I bring it up is that it agrees very much with my eye test which is that the Steelers make it really tough for him.

Yeah, RYOE tries to account for the context that YPC is lacking... and he's got 9 yards more than expected according to the NextGenStats model, like 0.04 yards over expected per attempt. It's not hyperbole to say he's among the most average running backs in the NFL this year lol. Actually Kyren Williams remarkably has exactly 0 RYOE so by this metric it's him.

I do think the OL and playcalling have been better this year than in 2021-2022 when Najee had near league worst efficiency numbers. So he's put up slightly better numbers as the OL has marginally improved, although it's looking like post-bye 2023 was his best stretch to date. It's a cliche but he get's pretty much whatever is blocked for him and not much more. Matches the eye test that says he's not very explosive but is probably a pain in the ass to have to tackle 25 times a game.

He's not as bad as his haters make him out to be but I do think that with the gift of hindsight we can say that it wasn't a very good use of draft capital.

While the bolded is true, this is why I favour lots of stats as I feel like the way Harris is getting there isn't. Let's use Kyren Williams as a comp. Number of games with 6+ yards per carry - 2 for Harris, 1 for Williams. Number of games at 2.5 yards per carry or less - 3 for Harris, 1 for Williams. Number of games between 3.5 ypc and 5 - 7 for Harris, 9 for Williams.

Harris' overall effect is average, but he is a lot less likely to hit average at any given time. He's feast or famine.

Part of me will regret seeing him go without ever having really been in a serious position to see if they could get more feast from him. Part of me will be happy to hopefully see the end of all those famine drives (but I suspect part of that is the Steelers and indeed all expected stats reflect team a little too much for my liking).

But we can all agree he wasn't a good use of draft capital and it didn't really even take much hindsight either.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

It isn’t fine they have 0 depth at cb trice is hurt again. Jackson can’t play m2m we saw kc pick on him with Watson. He gets safety help often against Cincy he will have Chase. If you can’t get up and press the wr they get a free running start your not getting home upfront in less than 2 seconds. Neither NB option is good and you need 3 guys in a passing league. Yes the starting Safeties are good but Kazee is garbage

So Mike Tomlin's defense can't function unless their is a pro bowler at every position?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Avert your eyes...this defense is a disaster.

Wonder who could be at the helm????

 

[Goalie_Bob]

While the bolded is true, this is why I favour lots of stats as I feel like the way Harris is getting there isn't. Let's use Kyren Williams as a comp. Number of games with 6+ yards per carry - 2 for Harris, 1 for Williams. Number of games at 2.5 yards per carry or less - 3 for Harris, 1 for Williams. Number of games between 3.5 ypc and 5 - 7 for Harris, 9 for Williams.

Harris' overall effect is average, but he is a lot less likely to hit average at any given time. He's feast or famine.

Part of me will regret seeing him go without ever having really been in a serious position to see if they could get more feast from him. Part of me will be happy to hopefully see the end of all those famine drives (but I suspect part of that is the Steelers and indeed all expected stats reflect team a little too much for my liking).

But we can all agree he wasn't a good use of draft capital and it didn't really even take much hindsight either.

Kyren Williams was a 5th round pick, Harris a 1st round pick.

As I've stated before, I appreciate Harris and his ability to stay healthy and to play and be available every game. that is a big attribute to have for a RB. But as we have talked about, his performance is mediocre at best. And that can't be true for a RB taken in the first round.

A RB taken in the first round must be dynamic. Look at Gibbs or Robinson or Barkley or McCaffrey. And Jeanty this upcoming draft.

Honestly, I would never take a RB in the first round unless they were a top 5 talent in the draft. A truely dynamic athlete that is elite. Otherwise just wait til the 2nd round or later to take a guy. Because after that, they are fungible. And there is just as big a chance that a guy taken in the 2nd+ round can be a good/great running back as a guy taken late in the first.

Going back to the original point that we all have, taking Harris in the first round was one of the most egregious draft choices in many years and set this team back not only from a draft choice perspective but from an inability to move on from a mediocre player.

I am so glad that they did not accept his 5th year option and will move on from him in the offseason. He can easily be replaced by a bunch of FA running backs or a more appropriate draft choice. And that FA running back and/or draft choice has a good chance of being more dynamic.

 

[MrBrightside]

Kyren Williams was a 5th round pick, Harris a 1st round pick.

As I've stated before, I appreciate Harris and his ability to stay healthy and to play and be available every game. that is a big attribute to have for a RB. But as we have talked about, his performance is mediocre at best. And that can't be true for a RB taken in the first round.

A RB taken in the first round must be dynamic. Look at Gibbs or Robinson or Barkley or McCaffrey. And Jeanty this upcoming draft.

Honestly, I would never take a RB in the first round unless they were a top 5 talent in the draft. A truely dynamic athlete that is elite. Otherwise just wait til the 2nd round or later to take a guy. Because after that, they are fungible. And there is just as big a chance that a guy taken in the 2nd+ round can be a good/great running back as a guy taken late in the first.

Going back to the original point that we all have, taking Harris in the first round was one of the most egregious draft choices in many years and set this team back not only from a draft choice perspective but from an inability to move on from a mediocre player.

I am so glad that they did not accept his 5th year option and will move on from him in the offseason. He can easily be replaced by a bunch of FA running backs or a more appropriate draft choice. And that FA running back and/or draft choice has a good chance of being more dynamic.

The waning days of the Colbert regime had some pretty awful drafts. The only player of any value they got in 2019 was Diontae Johnson, and that was a mixed bag as you know. The 2020 draft technically includes Minkah, but otherwise Highsmith was the only player of any real value. The 2021 draft that went Harris-Friermuth-Green-Moore has 3 guys who are starters but given some of the options on the board when they took Harris and Friermuth, ending up with mid RB and TE at 1-2 isn't great.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

So Mike Tomlin's defense can't function unless their is a pro bowler at every position?

no but you need average players at every position
Sutton Pierre Kazee are below average DJ is average when you are playing teams with multiple playmakers you’re at an disadvantage.
Khan is going to be busy retooling the dl cb and wr room in the off season

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

no but you need average players at every position
Sutton Pierre Kazee are below average DJ is average when you are playing teams with multiple playmakers you’re at an disadvantage.
Khan is going to be busy retooling the dl cb and wr room in the off season

There are teams who are more successful with LESS talent in the secondary. Explain that away Mr. Steelers PR Rep.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

There are teams who are more successful with LESS talent in the secondary. Explain that away Mr. Steelers PR Rep.

What playoff team would Jackson Pierre Kaze start on

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

How sticky gloves have become NFL receivers' most trusted sidekicks

Since the NFL banned the use of Stickum, receivers have been on a quest to find the perfect gloves.

www.espn.com

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

What playoff team would Jackson Pierre Kaze start on

Pierre and Kazee aren't starters. They are filling in for the injured Porter/Elliot



The Chiefs are so decimated, they'd take Jackson in a heartbeat for their #2CB.



But shouldn't a HC who's calling card is Defensive Back play be able to cobble together scraps? He's an alleged genius on the defensive side. That's why he's been employed for almost 20 years, no?

 

[Peat]

Roman Wilson, Cole Holcomb, And Logan Lee Return To Practice, Remain On Injured Lists

The Pittsburgh Steelers have designated three players to return ahead of their Week 18 regular-season finale. WR Roman Wilson, LB Cole Holcomb, and DL Logan Lee all returned to practice Tuesday, opening up the team’s 21-day window to activate them from injured reserve or Reserve/PUP. LB Cole...

steelersdepot.com

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Pierre and Kazee aren't starters. They are filling in for the injured Porter/Elliot



The Chiefs are so decimated, they'd take Jackson in a heartbeat for their #2CB.



But shouldn't a HC who's calling card is Defensive Back play be able to cobble together scraps? He's an alleged genius on the defensive side. That's why he's been employed for almost 20 years, no?

no kc wouldn’t they literally attacked Jackson will justin Watson.
You can only hide dbs so much. The broncos have the best cb in football and teams throw away from him 90 percent of the time and have success attacking their cb2 it was Levi Wallace’s but he got benched.

 

[Peat]

I can buy that the talent on the secondary is so-so, particularly when the injuries start. I think Jackson's picks have helped conceal an up and down season.

I also think an underrated part of this is knowing what everyone else will be doing which comes from working together. This was effectively a brand new secondary unit. It's why, despite not being super bullish on Jackson, I'd still bring him back if I could (and also draft another outside CB high). It'd be nice to build some cohesion and continuity there.

The question about development seems a really good one. Yeah, to a certain extent, they've never invested much in the position. But Buffalo's core secondary guys this season include two sixth rounders and an UDFA. Kansas have a good few later rounders too. Why don't the Steelers have their successes there?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

It’s definitely a developmental issue. They have drafted 1 cb in round 3 or higher 1 time since 2019 not counting JPJ. That was Layne. They have drafted guys on day 3 they were cut like Brooks and Norwood but they played as safety

I think it’s fairly obvious that this draft is DL Cb and TE top 3 picks

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

It’s definitely a developmental issue. They have drafted 1 cb in round 3 or higher 1 time since 2019 not counting JPJ. That was Layne. They have drafted guys on day 3 they were cut like Brooks and Norwood but they played as safety

Who is in charge of development? It's certainly not the HC

Detroit’s coaching. Did you notice how involved the coaches are at every moment of the game?

It’s not just when someone messes up and it’s a “teaching moment”. Randle-El was over with the receivers after every successful drive, every TD, basically coaching his ass off.

I rarely see that from our coaches. I’m being serious.

There is a serious coaching void we have in Pittsburgh right now. If a play isn’t successful it’s because someone lost a 1 on 1 battle, a bounce didn’t go our way or we couldn’t “will” it to happen.

Both SF and DET’s coaching is so superior to ours. Tell me, all game, why were their receivers and TEs just running free in the secondary? For both teams? When in the hell is it ever an easy completion for us like that?

Rooney has to be out of his senile old mind if he gives an ounce of a f*** about what is going on in the league to think what is going on here is acceptable or competitive.

This isn’t going to end well.

 

[Peat]

It’s definitely a developmental issue. They have drafted 1 cb in round 3 or higher 1 time since 2019 not counting JPJ. That was Layne. They have drafted guys on day 3 they were cut like Brooks and Norwood but they played as safety

I think it’s fairly obvious that this draft is DL Cb and TE top 3 picks

TE?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

TE?

Yes smith love 3te sets. Washington is closer to OT than a te. I don’t want to see Pruitt or Little heyward anymore
I figured the sign Higgins or Goodwin have Austin wr 3 Wilson wr 4 Ben Sko the gunner wr 5 and draft a guy since Austin and Wilson wilo be 2 digs 1 bone