OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: 5 and 2 Justin who? Hand the Fields to Wilson

[Headshot77]

It's actually pretty funny to see people getting up in arms over the WR depth being a problem on a team that simply throws the ball less than anyone else.

Not only that, but the mountain of shit Khan took for getting a better player (Jackson) for Johnson seems even more comical to me. Jackson is making a bigger impact than DJ had for a long time or would have this year.

I agree we need better WR's, but the idea it is the key to us exploding on offense is absurd. Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith aren't going to get WR's the targets needed to keep them happy.

Just the facts.

Maybe if we had better WRs we would throw the ball more.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846224165524983982

This is actually a great quote by Tomlin that I roll my eyes at because it’s completely opposite of how Tomlin operates.

I feel like people on here disparage Tomlin because he "likes" defensive plodding football (Tomlinball), but I think he's usually trying to get his best out of a mid ass roster. To a certain extent he's debasing the franchise because we probably should have done a proper rebuild by now, but Tomlin kind of prevents that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This assumes Tomlin shares our assessment of the players. I think all the statements and reports coming out of Pittsburgh since they signed Wilson is Tomlin doesn't think Wilson is washed, he thinks Wilson has just been used really badly and there's a real shot at getting him back to his old self.

I don't really agree with that but I don't think anyone turning to Wilson with that evaluation is content with mediocrity.

And tbh I think the odds that SB form Wilson still exists and can be rescued are probably better than the odds of creating a SB form Fields when it comes down to reward. Smaller window but likelier to happen.

What is this based on? Wilson is 36 and hasn't performed at anything close to "super bowl caliber" since 2020. He's 17-27 in his last 3 years and isn't getting any younger. There's a reason that the Seahawks replaced him with Geno Smith and saw absolutely no negative consequences from it.

Frankly Wilson hasn't been great since his torrid start to the 2020 season, where he started 5-0 and was a MVP frontrunner (19-3 TD-INT ratio, 129.8 passer rating, 300 yards per game, 0 fumbles lost) and then he fell off pretty significantly while going 7-4 in the remaining games (21-10 TD-INT ratio, 94.3 passer rating, 250 passing yards per game, 4 fumbles lost). Coincidentally, that last 11 game sample is pretty in line statistically with what he has done in the 3 years since then, and his only playoff game over that window was an absolute mess (11 for 27 with 174 yards, 2 TDs, 1 interception and 5 sacks).

I don't think Wilson is a bad QB, I just think he's super mediocre. And going with a 36 year old QB who you know is mediocre over a riskier younger guy who could be worse but also has the potential to be better is pretty much the definition of "striving for mediocrity" that this team has been doing for years.

 

[Peat]

What is this based on? Wilson is 36 and hasn't performed at anything close to "super bowl caliber" since 2020. He's 17-27 in his last 3 years and isn't getting any younger. There's a reason that the Seahawks replaced him with Geno Smith and saw absolutely no negative consequences from it.

Frankly Wilson hasn't been great since his torrid start to the 2020 season, where he started 5-0 and was a MVP frontrunner (19-3 TD-INT ratio, 129.8 passer rating, 300 yards per game, 0 fumbles lost) and then he fell off pretty significantly while going 7-4 in the remaining games (21-10 TD-INT ratio, 94.3 passer rating, 250 passing yards per game, 4 fumbles lost). Coincidentally, that last 11 game sample is pretty in line statistically with what he has done in the 3 years since then.

This sounds true enough and I'll still take the odds of it happening over the odds of Fields happening. I was flirting with the idea it could maybe happen after the Colts game, but the last two have pounded most of the nails back in that lid for me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This sounds true enough and I'll still take the odds of it happening over the odds of Fields happening. I was flirting with the idea it could maybe happen after the Colts game, but the last two have pounded most of the nails back in that lid for me.

Like I edited in there, I don't think Wilson is a terrible QB. I just think he's super average and I don't understand why you'd pick an average 36 year old QB over a slightly worse guy who's much younger and could theoretically end up better.

Wilson probably ranks in the 15-18 range for QBs right now while Fields is in the 20-23 range. Considering the age difference there, I just don't really understand going with the old guy over the young guy. Especially when it's been basically 4 years since Wilson was anything but mid.

 

[Empoleon8771]

One thing I will add though: even with all of my comments regarding Fields and Wilson, the realistic outcome is that it doesn’t tangibly matter because the two aren’t different enough to actually make a huge difference.

If Wilson is the 15th best QB while Fields is currently the 20th best QB with 10th best QB upside, it realistically doesn’t matter because you’re still in that middling tier of QBs.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Neither one is signed past this year so I don't think the age matters that much, especially if neither is good enough to be a long term answer. If there won't be much difference between them this year then they might as well not give up the 4th by playing Fields too much. That said, I don't expect much from Wilson and won't be at all surprised if Wilson doesn't make it through the Jets game.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I want to see Wilson. Liked Fields more until last week where I thought the passing side of things was a bit ugly at times.

Unfortunately their best course of action given where they are drafting is to probably re-sign Fields.

So while I want to see Wilson… idk what correct move is.

 

[Khelandros]

I just have a feeling this is going to give me flashbacks to Ben’s retirement tour. There will be some flashes of the old Wilson, but by the end of the year, we’ll be thinking “Well that was a giant waste of time.”

But unlike with Ben, Fields has already shown he can be responsible with the ball and lead the offense. So if Wilson fades there is a replacement waiting.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

But unlike with Ben, Fields has already shown he can be responsible with the ball and lead the offense. So if Wilson fades there is a replacement waiting.

Fields leads the nfl in fumbles

 

[Khelandros]

Fields leads the nfl in fumbles

Yes, a botched snap is considered a fumble. But he's only lost 1. Here are the other terrible QB's who also are at the top of the league in fumbles.

 

[Peat]

Like I edited in there, I don't think Wilson is a terrible QB. I just think he's super average and I don't understand why you'd pick an average 36 year old QB over a slightly worse guy who's much younger and could theoretically end up better.

Wilson probably ranks in the 15-18 range for QBs right now while Fields is in the 20-23 range. Considering the age difference there, I just don't really understand going with the old guy over the young guy. Especially when it's been basically 4 years since Wilson was anything but mid.

I think that Tomlin thinks Wilson is still above average. I think his commitment to him is a commitment to excellence, albeit one where I question his judgment.

I personally think that Wilson is very likely average, but that players sometimes randomly improve or regress massively kind of out of nowhere, and is that happens with Wilson - if it turns out it was all in the head and this has refocused him, or something - then there could be some pyrotechnics. Some kid or guy like Darnold blows up, and you wonder if they'll choke on the big stage. Wilson, well, you know he could hold his nerve. That's big to me.

I also suspect that Wilson's record on the big stage and in comebacks is a big part of why Tomlin loves him fwiw. But that's a whole other thing.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I think that Tomlin thinks Wilson is still above average. I think his commitment to him is a commitment to excellence, albeit one where I question his judgment.

I personally think that Wilson is very likely average, but that players sometimes randomly improve or regress massively kind of out of nowhere, and is that happens with Wilson - if it turns out it was all in the head and this has refocused him, or something - then there could be some pyrotechnics. Some kid or guy like Darnold blows up, and you wonder if they'll choke on the big stage. Wilson, well, you know he could hold his nerve. That's big to me.

I also suspect that Wilson's record on the big stage and in comebacks is a big part of why Tomlin loves him fwiw. But that's a whole other thing.

On the big stage? In the biggest moment of his career he lost his team the super bowl

 

[Peat]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846348331234349093

Presented less for Fields and more for it being interesting to see in general for all QBs. The difference between Allen and Lawrence/Jones is huge, but also basically 1 throw in 4 which isn't colossal. And even Allen is just taking his first read most of the time.

While I'm going through his account, another look at separation (and a suggestion Pickens isn't doubled much)

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846376768485175719

Better look

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846349177992700397

Look at Austin moving towards adequacy... maybe.

 

[WickedWrister]

I have Fields closer to QB15 than QB20 but acknowledge there's some subjectivity outside the elite group of guys. I don't know if I saw it in this thread or on twitter but I saw someone phrase it this way: If Russ never got hurt and was 4-2 with a comparable amount of yards and TD's (skew them towards passing instead of rushing) and only 2 turnovers, do you think Tomlin would be making this change? I don't.

I think we all knew this was going to happen eventually when Russ was immediately given "pole position" in March... 9 months out from any actual games.

@Peat As a fellow chart enthusiast - Fields having a league average sack rate this year (behind a patchwork OL) is probably my biggest surprise in terms of expectation vs reality. It was his kryptonite in Chicago.

 

[WickedWrister]

On a semi related note, it sounds like Trump (and Antonio Brown) are going to be at the game on Sunday. I don't want to venture too far into political commentary so I'll just say It's a shame we don't have MAGA Mason anymore. He'd put up 300+ yards and 3TD's for his hero

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Neither one is signed past this year so I don't think the age matters that much, especially if neither is good enough to be a long term answer. If there won't be much difference between them this year then they might as well not give up the 4th by playing Fields too much. That said, I don't expect much from Wilson and won't be at all surprised if Wilson doesn't make it through the Jets game.

That is the entire point.

The Steelers need to make the call on whether to cut bait and look elsewhere or commit big bucks on one of them. Preferably the young guy with maybe some upside.

So you go with Fields to have enough data to make an informed decision.

But that might chance Tomlin's never a losing season ego. So, that stupidity is a factor.

 

[TooManyHumans]

That is the entire point.

The Steelers need to make the call on whether to cut bait and look elsewhere or commit big bucks on one of them. Preferably the young guy with maybe some upside.

So you go with Fields to have enough data to make an informed decision.

But that might chance Tomlin's never a losing season ego. So, that stupidity is a factor.

I don't agree with this at all. Fields has shown enough to be the safe bet to get to 9-8. Tomlin clearly wants more so he is willing to risk going to Wilson, who is entirely unproven with this team. I do not have much hope that it will give us more but if all Tomlin cares about is getting to at least 9-8, then he would stick with Fields as he has shown enough to think he could get us there but not enough to think he would get us much more. Wilson is a bigger risk with potentially more upside this year.

 

[Peat]

I have Fields closer to QB15 than QB20 but acknowledge there's some subjectivity outside the elite group of guys. I don't know if I saw it in this thread or on twitter but I saw someone phrase it this way: If Russ never got hurt and was 4-2 with a comparable amount of yards and TD's (skew them towards passing instead of rushing) and only 2 turnovers, do you think Tomlin would be making this change? I don't.

I think we all knew this was going to happen eventually when Russ was immediately given "pole position" in March... 9 months out from any actual games.

I think Empo phrased it that way. And yeah, I'll agree. I'll agree on why it's happening too. Tomlin made up his mind who his starter was and his mind didn't get changed.

I also prefer Tiers to Rankings here, as Rankings can get lost in the reed of 15 vs 20 and Tiers says there's not a lot of difference. They're probably in the same tier. Maybe Wilson moves up when he plays. I'd doubt it based on Denver, but I can't look at Fields being a lot better in Pittsburgh than I expected and then say there's no way Wilson can surprise me as well.

@Peat As a fellow chart enthusiast - Fields having a league average sack rate this year (behind a patchwork OL) is probably my biggest surprise in terms of expectation vs reality. It was his kryptonite in Chicago.

View attachment 917226

I think if you go through all the stats on twitter, the departure of expectation vs reality lies partly in the fact that the patchwork OL has been consistently above average in true pass sets. I am somewhat baffled as to how they suddenly man up in those situations, but that's what the numbers say and this seem to confirms it.

Very acceptable EPA too. When Fields got here, these were the situations I thought he'd struggle with and he hasn't. It's a shame the team hasn't put better around him as maybe this is a different conversation.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Yes, a botched snap is considered a fumble. But he's only lost 1. Here are the other terrible QB's who also are at the top of the league in fumbles.

View attachment 917111

Fields has had ball handling issues his entire career. He's been extremely lucky he does not have more turnovers (fumbles and INT's) through these 6 games.

 

[Andy99]

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2024/10/16/justin-fields-mike-tomlin-steelers-jets/stories/202410140087

I mean, give Wilson a chance and bring Fields in at selective times, like in the red zone, where the defense might not be able to account for his running threat…best of both worlds if it works…

 

[JTG]

Fields has had ball handling issues his entire career. He's been extremely lucky he does not have more turnovers (fumbles and INT's) through these 6 games.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

He needs to do a better job, but Frazier doinking him off the facemask with the ball a few times was hardly Fields fault solely.

 

[ImporterExporter]

If Wilson starts, and we lose (I expect Rodgers to carve Tomlin up), do we go right back to Fields or keep throwing the old man into the fire?

 

[pistolpete11]

That is the entire point.

The Steelers need to make the call on whether to cut bait and look elsewhere or commit big bucks on one of them. Preferably the young guy with maybe some upside.

So you go with Fields to have enough data to make an informed decision.

But that might chance Tomlin's never a losing season ego. So, that stupidity is a factor.

I think seeing how the offense operates with Wilson does tell us something about Fields. If the offense looks better, then we know Fields probably isn't anything more than a backup going forward.

The problem is if Wilson sucks and they go back to Fields and his confidence is shattered. I know people will say "ThEn He'S mEnTaLlY wEaK!" but it don't buy that. I think it's human nature.

It's why I'm so torn.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I don't see how sitting temporarily so the guy who was intended to be the starter all along but wasn't because of injury could get a start would shatter Fields' confidence. I mean, if what he went through in Chicago didn't shatter his confidence then there's no way that should. And yeah, if it did then he is mentally weak. Regardless, the bigger issue is that Fields can't read a defense, anticipate, throw guys open, or throw with touch. He's very limited passing the ball. I don't have an issue with seeing whether Wilson can get more out of the offense, and I say that as someone who is very skeptical that Wilson can. But at some point we need to find out because we aren't getting enough out of Fields. And one way or the other it should tell us more about Fields and the job he has done to this point.

 

[Andy99]

If Wilson starts, and we lose (I expect Rodgers to carve Tomlin up), do we go right back to Fields or keep throwing the old man into the fire?

I expect us to lose no matter who starts at QB…Jets are a strong defense and Roger’s was throwing dimes last game…he’ll carve up our zone defense…so, to answer your question, no…I’d give Wilson plus Fields occasionally coming in, at least up until the bye and then reassess…