Legit questions:
(1) why do the Browns have ANY motivation to move Myles G. this offseason? He is under contract, they would certainly benefit from his play, and his decline in value to next offseason vs. contributions this season seem to be an acceptable cost to bear.
First being, you have a player who doesn't want to be there. The second is....they have to get to the other side of the watson contract to even begin to field a competitive team. So, reasonably speaking, that isn't until after 2026...when Garrett can walk. So, once the Browns accept the aren't going to be a good team while Watson is there, they will move on from Garrett and start the rebuild in earnest.
This is very calculated by Garrett, because he can moved to a good team AND have a shot at a big deal. In two years, he probably isn't getting as big of a contract.
(2) Why do people posit trading a 2nd and 5th (as an example) in 2025 draft for a 1st rounder in 2026 draft? I fully understand that a draft pick in n+1 years is worth less than the same round pick in draft year n, but the drop off in talent from a 1st rounder to a 2nd plus 5th (as an example) is large, regardless of whether all (3) picks end up being starters - which is certainly possible given roster needs and positional impact an value.
That i'm not sure. Typically the value of getting a young cheap starter now is pretty high.
(3) Are people properly valuing the Bills ante if Myles Garrett is truly available? The issue isn't "fair value", it is outbidding quantity N other teams who could be in play (need, cap space, fortitude) to similarly acquire Garrett. Again, Garrett isn't a UFA where he can choose to go to the team with the best chances of winning the Lombardi.
Garrett is going to have some say in where he wants to go. Teams aren't going to trade a shit ton for his rights and then be informed he didn't want to go there.
Because of the above, and lacking convincing evidence otherwise, I think Garrett to BUF this offseason is less likely than a coin toss (but would love to be proven wrong - I agree with the fit / linkage / value to BUF).
Just my likely-to-no-longer-be-freshly-minted two cents.
It's likely much less than 50%.
It really depends on what Cleveland wants and if they value him going out of conference or not.
Bills running back James Cook is eligible for a new contract this offseason and he hinted at what kind of salary he's looking for in a social media post earlier this month.
www.nbcsports.com
My guess is there might be a sizable gap between what he thinks he deserves and what Brandon Beane is willing to pay him.
In watching that video....things might be worse than we thought with cook.
He said two things that worried me:
1. He wants a bigger role and to play in all situations rather than the 'by committee' way the Bills play. I don't think that is going to happen.
2. He doesn't feel the pay scale for running backs is fair, said multiples times that running backs are under valued. When he was asked directly if he felt he deserved to be a top paid running back, he just said 'we valuable' or some part of it.