Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

[Jim Bob]

On paper sure. But, Rookie RBs aren't always a slam dunk. Cook is a proven commodity that doesn't fumble, is a sure handed catcher, and can hit home runs.

Nothing is a slam dunk. Cook could see his TD production drop off to be a lot closer to year 1 and year 2 production than the huge jump he had in year 3, too. Then you are paying for past production that wasn't sustainable.

I think most people agree that if Cook is going to be hard on the 15M/yr requirement, its a non starter. He isn't going to get that on a contender. A reasonable contract that keeps him during his peak years is certainly something worth exploring, though. Ray Davis is still a work in progress and (at least IMHO) has limited upside. I'm certainly leaning towards signing him vs just letting him play out his contract though, assuming he is willing to sign something at the lower end of market rate.

Cook is obviously going to try and pressure the Bills into paying him more than he will get on the open market. Along with trying to push himself in front of the line of all the starters that are lined up for extensions this offseason (Shakir, McGovern, Rousseau, Benford, & Bernard are all guys that the Bills are likely to have interest in extending, too).

Trying to say that Ray Davis has limited upside misses with me. Just look at his rookie production compared to Cook. Along with how well the offense functioned with Davis as RB1 when Cook missed his game this year.

Cook is a dude. He is not THAT dude and is easily replaceable. You cannot convince me otherwise. Especially given his snap% and touches so far in his career.

Cook in his rookie year had 89 carries for 507 yards and 2 TDs with 21 catches for 180 yards and 1 TD. So, 110 touches 687 yards and 3 TDs. And that was on 269 snaps which was 25%.

Davis in his rookie year had 113 carries for 442 yards and 3 TDs with 17 catches for 189 yards and 3 TDs. So, 130 touches for 631 yards and 6 TDs. And that was on 264 snaps which was 24%.

Davis also was a lot more sure handed as a rookie with a much better catch% and 0 lost fumbles.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wonder if this encourages the Bills to push more money into void years...

 

[Jim Bob]

Bills focused on building best roster, not just beating Chiefs

Remaining competitive year after year is always Buffalo's goal.

www.espn.com

 

[TageGod]

I will be disappointed in the offseason is they do not get Garett. If they pay cook over 10m I will be disappointed. If they even attempt to draft a defensive lineman in the first round I will be pissed because he will suck like the rest of them. The Buffalo BIlls can't develop defensive lineman. Gotta get established players.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I will be disappointed in the offseason is they do not get Garett. If they pay cook over 10m I will be disappointed. If they even attempt to draft a defensive lineman in the first round I will be pissed because he will suck like the rest of them. The Buffalo BIlls can't develop defensive lineman. Gotta get established players.

Well, just be disappointed then!

I think this is the best time to be a bills fan, should be enjoying this and being optimistic about good and fun our team is

 

[Zman5778]

I will be disappointed in the offseason is they do not get Garett. If they pay cook over 10m I will be disappointed. If they even attempt to draft a defensive lineman in the first round I will be pissed because he will suck like the rest of them. The Buffalo BIlls can't develop defensive lineman. Gotta get established players.

Seems like a lot of requirements for you to be satisfied.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Seems like a lot of requirements for you to be satisfied.

What? The bills have to trade for one of the best players in the league, not address their biggest need in the draft, and also don’t dare re-sign their RB!

@TageGod - I’d love for them to sign Garrett too, don’t get me wrong!

 

[TageGod]

Needing a premier pass rusher is #1 priority. It is not worth it to overpay running backs, and they have a history of not developing Defensive line. Get the pass rusher, won't have the first-round pick to select a mid lineman. I'd trade cook before I offered over 12.

Seems like a lot of requirements for you to be satisfied.

Well, just be disappointed then!

I think this is the best time to be a bills fan, should be enjoying this and being optimistic about good and fun our team is

 

[buffalowing88]

Needing a premier pass rusher is #1 priority. It is not worth it to overpay running backs, and they have a history of not developing Defensive line. Get the pass rusher, won't have the first-round pick to select a mid lineman. I'd trade cook before I offered over 12.

I don't think there's a great trade market for a RB who's clearly going to be disgruntled if he doesn't get a big paycheck.

 

[Zman5778]

I don't think there's a great trade market for a RB who's clearly going to be disgruntled if he doesn't get a big paycheck.

There isn't a great trade market for RBs, period. If Cook really is asking for that much....I think the most likely scenario is that we ride Cook HARD this year and then let him go to free agency and draft his replacement (or complement to Davis) in 2026.

 

[Jim Bob]

What? The bills have to trade for one of the best players in the league, not address their biggest need in the draft, and also don’t dare re-sign their RB!

@TageGod - I’d love for them to sign Garrett too, don’t get me wrong!

Garrett isn't a FA, so it is not as simple as the Bills signing him.

I think the most likely outcome is that Myles Garrett is still a Brown on opening day given the Browns bad cap situation and the massive dead cap they will absorb if they trade Garrett.

The Browns are 31st in cap space and are $27.5M OVER the cap for 2025 today.

Garrett has a 2025 cap hit of $19.7M for the Browns. People talk all the time of the Browns trading him for 2025 draft picks. But, if they trade Garrett before the draft, Garrett will count $36M against the 2025 cap due to dead cap acceleration. That is $16.5M MORE against the 2025 cap than just keeping him.

So, if the Bills could trade for Garrett tomorrow, that would push the Browns from $27.5M OVER the cap to $44M OVER the 2025 cap. I would not count on that happening, especially with the Browns pushing for a new stadium deal.

So, while Bills fans can be disappointed if Beane doesn't land Garrett (or Maxx Crosby), I also expect that neither of them move because of the cap and the situations with their current teams.

I don't think there's a great trade market for a RB who's clearly going to be disgruntled if he doesn't get a big paycheck.

I was mildly surprised that Joe Marino guessed that the Bills could get a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd and a 4th for Cook on today's pod.

 

[TehDoak]

Garrett isn't a FA, so it is not as simple as the Bills signing him.

I think the most likely outcome is that Myles Garrett is still a Brown on opening day given the Browns bad cap situation and the massive dead cap they will absorb if they trade Garrett.

The Browns are 31st in cap space and are $27.5M OVER the cap for 2025 today.

Garrett has a 2025 cap hit of $19.7M for the Browns. People talk all the time of the Browns trading him for 2025 draft picks. But, if they trade Garrett before the draft, Garrett will count $36M against the 2025 cap due to dead cap acceleration. That is $16.5M MORE against the 2025 cap than just keeping him.

So, if the Bills could trade for Garrett tomorrow, that would push the Browns from $27.5M OVER the cap to $44M OVER the 2025 cap. I would not count on that happening, especially with the Browns pushing for a new stadium deal.

So, while Bills fans can be disappointed if Beane doesn't land Garrett (or Maxx Crosby), I also expect that neither of them move because of the cap and the situations with their current teams.

I still think the funniest outcome is them having a trade done at the draft but not being able to announce it until June 1st, but everyone knows its done.

I was mildly surprised that Joe Marino guessed that the Bills could get a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd and a 4th for Cook on today's pod.

A team would have to be REALLY hard up for a running back. It's a deep draft class and the free agent pool has some similar level (Harris and Jones) RBs available for probably less than the salary Cook is asking for.

 

[Jim Bob]

I still think the funniest outcome is them having a trade done at the draft but not being able to announce it until June 1st, but everyone knows its done.

I do not believe they would allow that to happen and have 2025 draft picks be a part of the trade.

There would be huge issues with the picks involved, using them for other trades, etc.

A team would have to be REALLY hard up for a running back. It's a deep draft class and the free agent pool has some similar level (Harris and Jones) RBs available for probably less than the salary Cook is asking for.

I think the Raiders are a team that a lot of people would look to for the right amount of desperate for a RB and dumb to try and take advantage of.

It's just like Matt Bove talking to the Buffalo Plus crew and them talking about the idea of the Cowboys trading Micah Parsons. It came down to the Cowboys being dumb, so anything was possible.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Cap going up to 277-281M per Pelissero/espn.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't think Beane would be too worried about turning and burning with RBs.

Some teams treat LBs in a similar manner.

If Cook forces his way out, Beane could opt for one of the three 2nd round impact RBs (Hampton, Johnson, and Henderson), too.

You have rotational home run threat RBs in Smith & James that could be there on day 3.

Bhayshul Tuten is another day 3 home run guy that is projected to run a 4.3 and change in the 40. And a lot of his pros and cons as a prospect sound very James Cook-esque.

My ideal RB rotation is:

Lead back who can do a lot of things
Passing down back who can get into pass routes
Power back who comes in when you need a sledgehammer

I think Davis can fill Cook's role. When Beane talked to Davis post-draft, he didn't sound like a GM bringing in a back up. I think Beane had the rotation you mentioned in mind.

I would love for the Bills to get Gordon or Sanders as the power back. Johnson can return as the pass catcher.

 

[TehDoak]

I do not believe they would allow that to happen and have 2025 draft picks be a part of the trade.

There would be huge issues with the picks involved, using them for other trades, etc.

The one idea I've floated is doing a pick swap with the Browns (say, our 2nd for their 2025 2nd) and just trade that 2025 2nd back to them as part of the Garrett deal. That way they get an 'immediate' return rather than waiting for next year's draft AND they get the cap savings.

 

[Jim Bob]

The one idea I've floated is doing a pick swap with the Browns (say, our 2nd for their 2025 2nd) and just trade that 2025 2nd back to them as part of the Garrett deal. That way they get an 'immediate' return rather than waiting for next year's draft AND they get the cap savings.

There still has to be a lot of trust there as the Browns could screw the Bills and keep Garrett or trade him elsewhere.

 

[TehDoak]

There still has to be a lot of trust there as the Browns could screw the Bills and keep Garrett or trade him elsewhere.

I'd assume the flip would be close to fair value in terms of picks being swapped so even if the deal died on the vine we wouldn't get stuck holding the proverbial bag.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'd assume the flip would be close to fair value in terms of picks being swapped so even if the deal died on the vine we wouldn't get stuck holding the proverbial bag.

With every Garrett trade involving at least one 1st, my guess is that the Bills 2025 1st would be involved. The only way to really guarantee they wouldn't flake is trade the 2025 BUF 1st for the 2026 CLE 1st knowing it will go back.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

With every Garrett trade involving at least one 1st, my guess is that the Bills 2025 1st would be involved. The only way to really guarantee they wouldn't flake is trade the 2025 BUF 1st for the 2026 CLE 1st knowing it will go back.

The 2025 1st rounder wouldn't be in play--any first rounder would have to be 2026 or 2027. But assuming a 2nd rounder is part of the package, than Doak's idea of flipping one of those for Cleveland's 2026 2nd, and then flipping that to them after 6/1, could be a viable option for that piece. But no doubt, Cleveland is not getting a 2025 1st from anyone if it's a post-6/1 trade.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

 

[sabremike]

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I will be disappointed in the offseason is they do not get Garett. If they pay cook over 10m I will be disappointed. If they even attempt to draft a defensive lineman in the first round I will be pissed because he will suck like the rest of them. The Buffalo BIlls can't develop defensive lineman. Gotta get established players.

Garrett or bust is a defeating mentality. There are other options can help if there isn’t a deal to be made with Cleveland. There are also some pretty sure fire D lineman that’ll be available when we pick at 30. Nolan. Grant. Harmon. Williams.

 

[Jim Bob]

The 2025 1st rounder wouldn't be in play--any first rounder would have to be 2026 or 2027. But assuming a 2nd rounder is part of the package, than Doak's idea of flipping one of those for Cleveland's 2026 2nd, and then flipping that to them after 6/1, could be a viable option for that piece. But no doubt, Cleveland is not getting a 2025 1st from anyone if it's a post-6/1 trade.

The idea that Doak talked about was making a pre-6/1 trade involving 2025 picks that would end up being rearranged in a post-6/1 trade for Garrett.

If Cleveland prefers future 1sts in the Garrett trade, there is no real need to mess with a "pre-trade" using 2025 picks. I mean, if they are willing to wait for a 2026 1st, I doubt they would want to jump through hoops to get day 2 or 3 2025 picks in the deal.

Garrett or bust is a defeating mentality. There are other options can help if there isn’t a deal to be made with Cleveland. There are also some pretty sure fire D lineman that’ll be available when we pick at 30. Nolan. Grant. Harmon. Williams.

My dream scenario is Cleveland needing to wait until post 6/1 to trade Garrett, so the Bills draft a DT (I prefer Grant because I am with Bruce Nolan in believing they need to get bigger at DT) at 30 and then use their 2026 and 2027 1sts in the Garrett trade.

 

[Jim Bob]

It is a good Bills pod morning.