Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[VanJack]

$8 million is fine for me. boeser is super underated.

103pts in his last 113 games

$8 million is fine for me. boeser is super underated.

103pts in his last 113 games

Really depends on the salary cap......if it increases by the amount that it's projected to go up, then maybe an extension of $8m a season for Boeser might be doable. But the 'term' could end up being the issue.

Obviously something has to happen before the TDL at the end of February.....I doubt Allvin and Rutherford wouldn't be comfortable with Boeser's impending free agency, and the possibility that he could walk for nothing.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Really depends on the salary cap......if it increases by the amount that it's projected to go up, then maybe an extension of $8m a season for Boeser might be doable. But the 'term' could end up being the issue.

Obviously something has to happen before the TDL at the end of February.....I doubt Allvin and Rutherford wouldn't be comfortable with Boeser's impending free agency, and the possibility that he could walk for nothing.

I don't think Allvin or JR worries about players "walk for nothing" too much. They had no issues with some of our own players hit UFAs in the past, nor trading for pending UFAs last season. It is better off letting a player go for nothing, rather than to lock him down with a bad contract. Same idea as Lindholm this past summer, we might've "lost him" to free agency, but that is still a much better outcome than the alternative of overpaying on a declining player for 7-8 years.

The cap going up just means every player will be looking for more money. I rather have the cap space and flexibility when an impact player is available and/or to re-sign our core players (like Hughes and maybe Demko), rather than tying up a significant cap space now and lose all flexibility in the future.

But that is just my preference, its not the only way to build a team.

 

[WTG]

Really depends on the salary cap......if it increases by the amount that it's projected to go up, then maybe an extension of $8m a season for Boeser might be doable. But the 'term' could end up being the issue.

Obviously something has to happen before the TDL at the end of February.....I doubt Allvin and Rutherford wouldn't be comfortable with Boeser's impending free agency, and the possibility that he could walk for nothing.

Term isn't an issue if you can bring the AAV down. Are the canucks really going to compete 6-7 years from now anyway? You are in win now mode. Why the f*** would you let your #1RW leave for free? Makes no sense. We are hand wringing over 1 million dollars, who the f*** cares. Right now, that's only 1.1% of the cap. The team is worse without Boeser that much is a fact.

Find savings elsewhere on other contracts. Have a young player on a cheaper deal or a ELC come through, trade for a good contract. Do what you need to do to retain your best players.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

He is just going to be one of those players who are underrated here until they leave or retire.

 

[Jerry the great]

Term isn't an issue if you can bring the AAV down. Are the canucks really going to compete 6-7 years from now anyway? You are in win now mode. Why the f*** would you let your #1RW leave for free? Makes no sense. We are hand wringing over 1 million dollars, who the f*** cares. Right now, that's only 1.1% of the cap. The team is worse without Boeser that much is a fact.

Find savings elsewhere on other contracts. Have a young player on a cheaper deal or a ELC come through, trade for a good contract. Do what you need to do to retain your best players.

Unless our season goes totally sideways, i expect him to be extended before the end of the regular season. 7 years and ~ $7.5MM+/-500K. 80% chance this happens IMO

If the season goes sideways and we're not a playoff team by the deadline, I think they'll probably listen to offers and if they hear something they can't say no to (for example, if the NYR offered Perrault) , i could see him moved. I'm not predicting this outcome, but it has been a weird season and it wouldn't completely shock me.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Term isn't an issue if you can bring the AAV down. Are the canucks really going to compete 6-7 years from now anyway? You are in win now mode. Why the f*** would you let your #1RW leave for free? Makes no sense. We are hand wringing over 1 million dollars, who the f*** cares. Right now, that's only 1.1% of the cap. The team is worse without Boeser that much is a fact.

Find savings elsewhere on other contracts. Have a young player on a cheaper deal or a ELC come through, trade for a good contract. Do what you need to do to retain your best players.

This mindset is very strange to me. Hughes just turned 25, Petterson just turned 26, why wouldn't we be competing in 5, 6, or 7 years when they are still in their prime? The only reason we won't be is if management mis-managed the cap so bad that we are stuck with a bunch of declining overpaid players. Overpaying $1m here and $1m there might not sound like a lot to you, but it all adds up.
Usually forwards decline in their late 20s, doubly so for those that are below average skaters and non-play-drivers. You might sign a player thinking "it might be a 7-8 years contract but at least we'll get 3-4 good years out of him." But even that gamble might not materialize as the player immediately turned into a pumpkin. Would you have been happy had the team signed Lindholm to that contract he go from Boston?
Looking at Boeser's career, I'm not comfortable making such a significant long term commitment to him. It wasn't that long ago that we were trying to unload his contract, that we gave his agent permission to talk to other teams and still couldn't find a team to take him on. Now we are ok giving him upwards of $8.5m for 7-8 years? Especially with our blueline desperately needing upgrade, yet we currently have like no cap space at all to address it?

I guess the final point is our main difference, I don't see BB6 as part of our "best players." Good useful player for sure, but not irreplaceable.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Trying to low ball contract a guy who got concussed by a dirty, suspension-worthy play that was 100% not his fault seems like a really bad way to conduct business.

Lo and behold, Sekeres and Price focus in on Boeser negotiations. The timing is impeccable... Paterson and Gafaar have also weighed in.

Seems very bad practice for them to suggest a deal get done, doesn't it? After all, Boeser just returned from a concussion. It would be 'bad business' to think about it now, though that is exactly what people are doing, thinking about and leaking facts about Boeser's ask. Coincidence, I suppose.

 

[WTG]

This mindset is very strange to me. Hughes just turned 25, Petterson just turned 26, why wouldn't we be competing in 5, 6, or 7 years when they are still in their prime? The only reason we won't be is if management mis-managed the cap so bad that we are stuck with a bunch of declining overpaid players. Overpaying $1m here and $1m there might not sound like a lot to you, but it all adds up.
Usually forwards decline in their late 20s, doubly so for those that are below average skaters and non-play-drivers. You might sign a player thinking "it might be a 7-8 years contract but at least we'll get 3-4 good years out of him." But even that gamble might not materialize as the player immediately turned into a pumpkin. Would you have been happy had the team signed Lindholm to that contract he go from Boston?
Looking at Boeser's career, I'm not comfortable making such a significant long term commitment to him. It wasn't that long ago that we were trying to unload his contract, that we gave his agent permission to talk to other teams and still couldn't find a team to take him on. Now we are ok giving him upwards of $8.5m for 7-8 years? Especially with our blueline desperately needing upgrade, yet we currently have like no cap space at all to address it?

I guess the final point is our main difference, I don't see BB6 as part of our "best players." Good useful player for sure, but not irreplaceable.

Team goes for rebuilds and retools every year I guess. Saying that they won't be competing in 6-7 years was a bit misleading. To address some of your main points, I don't think it's much of a gamble to bet on Boeser at all. 1 million dollars isn't that much in the grand scheme of things when you are dealing with quality players like Boeser.

My main question to you is, who are you going to replace Boeser with? Someone has to play the #1RW this season. Are they really going to be cheaper? You can have all the cap space in the world, but if you don't have players to spend it on, it's kind of useless. The presumption is that they walk into a better deal with that capspace but it doesn't neccisarily work like that.

The Canucks are accruing capspace right now, they will have enough to bring in a defenseman at the deadline.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Team goes for rebuilds and retools every year I guess. Saying that they won't be competing in 6-7 years was a bit misleading. To address some of your main points, I don't think it's much of a gamble to bet on Boeser at all. 1 million dollars isn't that much in the grand scheme of things when you are dealing with quality players like Boeser.

My main question to you is, who are you going to replace Boeser with? Someone has to play the #1RW this season. Are they really going to be cheaper? You can have all the cap space in the world, but if you don't have players to spend it on, it's kind of useless. The presumption is that they walk into a better deal with that capspace but it doesn't neccisarily work like that.

The Canucks are accruing capspace right now, they will have enough to bring in a defenseman at the deadline.

It's really hard to say without knowing who is available. But I'm just thinking back to last season, we were able to get a good quality player for cheap (Zadorov) because we had cap space, but we were too tight to acquire Guentzel in season, and would've been very difficult to fit him in as a UFA, just because we didn't have that flexibility. Good player becomes available, but a team has to be in position to take advantage.

Re-signing BB6 at a raise means less available to address the D next season. OEL's recapture goes up, we still have Mikheyev on the book, so that's like almost $6m gone right off the bat. We are already looking pretty tight going into next season as is.

Again I'm not saying there is only one way to build a team, I'm not against it if the cap hit and term is good, but if we are talking about something like $8m x 8 or in that range, I see that as extremely risky for a player like Boeser.

 

[WTG]

It's really hard to say without knowing who is available. But I'm just thinking back to last season, we were able to get a good quality player for cheap (Zadorov) because we had cap space, but we were too tight to acquire Guentzel in season, and would've been very difficult to fit him in as a UFA, just because we didn't have that flexibility. Good player becomes available, but a team has to be in position to take advantage.

Re-signing BB6 at a raise means less available to address the D next season. OEL's recapture goes up, we still have Mikheyev on the book, so that's like almost $6m gone right off the bat. We are already looking pretty tight going into next season as is.

Again I'm not saying there is only one way to build a team, I'm not against it if the cap hit and term is good, but if we are talking about something like $8m x 8 or in that range, I see that as extremely risky for a player like Boeser.

I think the Zadorov situation is a good parallel to the Boeser contract. They hand wrung themselves into not paying Zadorov 1m more and then they lose him for free and they have nobody to really replace him with. The Canucks have saved enough capspace with the Hughes contract and the Miller to over flexibility.

I just don't understand why we would just let a player walk over a extra year and .5m more. You cannot replace Boeser easily so why do it in the first place?

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I think the Zadorov situation is a good parallel to the Boeser contract. They hand wrung themselves into not paying Zadorov 1m more and then they lose him for free and they have nobody to really replace him with. The Canucks have saved enough capspace with the Hughes contract and the Miller to over flexibility.

I just don't understand why we would just let a player walk over a extra year and .5m more. You cannot replace Boeser easily so why do it in the first place?

I guess personally I don't see it as $0.5m more if he gets something like 8 x $8m, which is likely the market rate for a player like him, because to me he is only worth somewhere in the range of $6.5m per year. So from my POV, that is $1.5m per year overpaid. As a UFA, I'm sure there will be a team (or teams) willing to pay him 8 x $8m, but as I mentioned previously, Boeser is the type of player that should see steep decline in play in his late 20s/early 30s, and I'm not comfortable betting against that when his play up to last season was not very good.

I mean lets apply the same logic to Lindholm. Allvin was rumored to have offered him 7 x $7m, he signed for $7.75m, so the difference was $0.75m. Aren't you glad that we let him walk over $0.75m more, seeing how he has already been a bad contract 3 months into his first year? Or if you prefer the Zadorov example, he has been bad for Boston, and at 6 x $5m, you could say we dodged a bullet there, even though we didn't replace either player internally so far.

Also, I think scoring wingers are the easiest to replace and acquire, I mean we just signed JDB for less than what Boeser is making. I might be convinced to slightly overpay to keep a top 6C or top 4D, but probably not a top 6W.

 

[racerjoe]

I guess personally I don't see it as $0.5m more if he gets something like 8 x $8m, which is likely the market rate for a player like him, because to me he is only worth somewhere in the range of $6.5m per year. So from my POV, that is $1.5m per year overpaid. As a UFA, I'm sure there will be a team (or teams) willing to pay him 8 x $8m, but as I mentioned previously, Boeser is the type of player that should see steep decline in play in his late 20s/early 30s, and I'm not comfortable betting against that when his play up to last season was not very good.

I mean lets apply the same logic to Lindholm. Allvin was rumored to have offered him 7 x $7m, he signed for $7.75m, so the difference was $0.75m. Aren't you glad that we let him walk over $0.75m more, seeing how he has already been a bad contract 3 months into his first year? Or if you prefer the Zadorov example, he has been bad for Boston, and at 6 x $5m, you could say we dodged a bullet there, even though we didn't replace either player internally so far.

Also, I think scoring wingers are the easiest to replace and acquire, I mean we just signed JDB for less than what Boeser is making. I might be convinced to slightly overpay to keep a top 6C or top 4D, but probably not a top 6W.

I think you have to always think about fit. It’s one of the reasons when pits got Karlsson I said it was a bad move.

You brought up Lindholm and Zadorov, and while I would not have paid Lindholm that much, a good case could be made for Zadorov. Yes he hit a hot streak in the playoffs, but he fit our team so well, and having a defense that had two pairs that could split 2nd pair duties worked well to keep guys fresh.

I would say you have to have a walk away number though otherwise you can always just say oh it’s only another 500k…

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I think you have to always think about fit. It’s one of the reasons when pits got Karlsson I said it was a bad move.

You brought up Lindholm and Zadorov, and while I would not have paid Lindholm that much, a good case could be made for Zadorov. Yes he hit a hot streak in the playoffs, but he fit our team so well, and having a defense that had two pairs that could split 2nd pair duties worked well to keep guys fresh.

I would say you have to have a walk away number though otherwise you can always just say oh it’s only another 500k…

Yea, and I want to say that I realize my walk away number is way under market value, I just think he would be vastly overpaid at $8m for the type of player he is and production in the past. I don't project him to age very well into his early 30s, and his injury history and fitness are always an issue. He is a good fit for JTM, but I think JTM is so good that he will make it work with any reasonable top 6 wingers. BB6 is also a good PP guy but we have JDB for that role now. I don't think BB6 is irreplaceable at this point.

 

[racerjoe]

Yea, and I want to say that I realize my walk away number is way under market value, I just think he would be vastly overpaid at $8m for the type of player he is and production in the past. I don't project him to age very well into his early 30s, and his injury history and fitness are always an issue. He is a good fit for JTM, but I think JTM is so good that he will make it work with any reasonable top 6 wingers. BB6 is also a good PP guy but we have JDB for that role now. I don't think BB6 is irreplaceable at this point.

I think you vastly miss the market if you think you can easily find someone for cheaper to fit better in the now. I do agree he probably will age and become less valuable, and as he does you have to pro either your proscouting is good enough to find a gem, or you hit on a prospect like Lek. But you are in a win now, and if you don't sign him, are you improving the team? If the answer is no, or you can't in the now, you sign him. This isn't the time to think about down the road, the window is open you go all in, or you don't win.

 

[WTG]

I guess personally I don't see it as $0.5m more if he gets something like 8 x $8m, which is likely the market rate for a player like him, because to me he is only worth somewhere in the range of $6.5m per year. So from my POV, that is $1.5m per year overpaid. As a UFA, I'm sure there will be a team (or teams) willing to pay him 8 x $8m, but as I mentioned previously, Boeser is the type of player that should see steep decline in play in his late 20s/early 30s, and I'm not comfortable betting against that when his play up to last season was not very good.

I mean lets apply the same logic to Lindholm. Allvin was rumored to have offered him 7 x $7m, he signed for $7.75m, so the difference was $0.75m. Aren't you glad that we let him walk over $0.75m more, seeing how he has already been a bad contract 3 months into his first year? Or if you prefer the Zadorov example, he has been bad for Boston, and at 6 x $5m, you could say we dodged a bullet there, even though we didn't replace either player internally so far.

Also, I think scoring wingers are the easiest to replace and acquire, I mean we just signed JDB for less than what Boeser is making. I might be convinced to slightly overpay to keep a top 6C or top 4D, but probably not a top 6W.

Jake DeBrusk in FA got 5.5 million with a full no move and he has a .56pts/game which is a 48 point pace over 82. Boeser is at a 66 point pace over 82 games basically his entire career. Boeser has the 76th highest PPG amongst forwards from 2022-2025. He is a top line winger when it comes to production, DeBrusk wasn't.

I just don't understand how that is worth just walking away from when you see what guys in FA are getting. Personally, I think people are looking at it with COVID eyes where there was a flat cap for a few seasons. People made fun of the leafs despite their contract situation being completely fine if it weren't for COVID. Now people are dreading giving players contracts that were equivalant when the cap was 82m.

The CBA is up next year I believe, you can bet that players will want to get paid. The cap will sky rocket as a result. Having term on contracts that you sign now will probably be better than just signing a guy 2-3 years from now when the cap is 100+.

When it comes to paying Zadorov, I would have swallowed that 5 million dollar contract. It's a bad contract, but he fit the team so well it was probably a deal worth swallowing. As for Boeser, him making 8m is basically market value for a guy like that. Zadorov's market value was not 5 million.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

A brief history of Brock Boeser not being able to catch a break

Grit. Fortitude. Perseverance in the face of adversity. If one were...

canucksarmy.com

hes been hurt 15x in his career. foot/back/covid/concussions u name it.

Young Brock is a worthy uniform successor to my beloved Sami Salo in beauty of person, enormity of impact, and passion for misfortune.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Jake DeBrusk in FA got 5.5 million with a full no move and he has a .56pts/game which is a 48 point pace over 82. Boeser is at a 66 point pace over 82 games basically his entire career. Boeser has the 76th highest PPG amongst forwards from 2022-2025. He is a top line winger when it comes to production, DeBrusk wasn't.

I just don't understand how that is worth just walking away from when you see what guys in FA are getting. Personally, I think people are looking at it with COVID eyes where there was a flat cap for a few seasons. People made fun of the leafs despite their contract situation being completely fine if it weren't for COVID. Now people are dreading giving players contracts that were equivalant when the cap was 82m.

The CBA is up next year I believe, you can bet that players will want to get paid. The cap will sky rocket as a result. Having term on contracts that you sign now will probably be better than just signing a guy 2-3 years from now when the cap is 100+.

When it comes to paying Zadorov, I would have swallowed that 5 million dollar contract. It's a bad contract, but he fit the team so well it was probably a deal worth swallowing. As for Boeser, him making 8m is basically market value for a guy like that. Zadorov's market value was not 5 million.

I think when signing a long term contract, it is more important what you project the player to be in the future, rather than what he was in the past. Boeser is/was a very good complimentary winger that was lucky enough to play with a couple elite centers in the past 5 seasons. Will he continue to score at the same rate?

But it all goes back to my original point. If the goal is "all-in" the next 2 seasons during Hughes's contract, then by all means sign BB6 to 8x8 because it's unlikely you'll get a better player/fit in the short term. But I really think doing so means shutting the contention window after that, when Hughes doubles his salary, Demko needs a new contract or replaced, JTM in his mid 30s, and we don't even know if Petey will ever regain his form and earn his contract. Its a risky play.

People thinking "the cap is rising" means "it's easier to fit everybody in" is going to be disappointed. Everybody will ask for more. A 2nd pairing D will be making around $6m, 3rd liner salary will rise too. Its not just " we will have another 10m in cap space so why not overpay Boeser a mil or so?" Its "every single player is looking for another mil and now that extra $10m cap space is completely gone and we haven't even upgrade the roster at all!" At least that's my prediction.

 

[racerjoe]

I think when signing a long term contract, it is more important what you project the player to be in the future, rather than what he was in the past. Boeser is/was a very good complimentary winger that was lucky enough to play with a couple elite centers in the past 5 seasons. Will he continue to score at the same rate?

But it all goes back to my original point. If the goal is "all-in" the next 2 seasons during Hughes's contract, then by all means sign BB6 to 8x8 because it's unlikely you'll get a better player/fit in the short term. But I really think doing so means shutting the contention window after that, when Hughes doubles his salary, Demko needs a new contract or replaced, JTM in his mid 30s, and we don't even know if Petey will ever regain his form and earn his contract. Its a risky play.

People thinking "the cap is rising" means "it's easier to fit everybody in" is going to be disappointed. Everybody will ask for more. A 2nd pairing D will be making around $6m, 3rd liner salary will rise too. Its not just " we will have another 10m in cap space so why not overpay Boeser a mil or so?" Its "every single player is looking for another mil and now that extra $10m cap space is completely gone and we haven't even upgrade the roster at all!" At least that's my prediction.

So instead replace JT Miller, Demko, Brock, and Hughes and how good will we be? It’s for the reasons you just stay
Ted you should be in win now.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

So instead replace JT Miller, Demko, Brock, and Hughes and how good will we be? It’s for the reasons you just stay
Ted you should be in win now.

I'm not sure what this means? There is no replacing Hughes. It is also much harder to replace a 1C like JTM than a winger like Boeser. Its near impossible to acquire a point per game center, but a 60-75 points winger isn't that hard (and I'm being generous because Boeser has only once scored over 60 points in his career).