Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[Hodgy]

The Canucks, even with Boeser, badly need another top six winger. So if they trade Boeser, they basically need to trade him for another top six winger, and win that trade, while also acquiring another top six winger. I’d be surprised if they even try to trade Boeser unless his contract demands are totally unreasonable. Even though Boeser is a flawed player, and there is risk, I think they would rather bet on him continuing to produce as a top six winger, rather than taking a flier on two new top six wingers.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Myers was a pariah because he accepted that contract from Benning, like it was his fault. And once their thoughts went in that direction his play became secondary.

Past 3 years.

 

[theguardianII]

View attachment 837419

Past 3 years.

Not sure what stat you are using but you may have made the argument if is point shares or something.
You would have to include his PK and PP times.

Most of his ice time was as a defensive player having many other partners

Power play time and most of the defencemen he has had to play with.

Player

Pos

GP

PPG

PPA

PPA1

PPA2

PPP

PP iSAT

PP Shots

PP S%

PPG/60

PPA1/60

PPA2/60

PPP/60

PP iSAT/60

PP S/60

PP GF/60

PP TOI

PP TOI/GP

PP TOI%

Quinn Hughes

D

278​

4​

109​

54​

55​

113​

222​

162​

2.4​

0.23​

3.07​

3.12​

6.42​

12.6​

9.2​

8.63​

1056:11

3:48

74.2​

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

D

133​

3​

11​

7​

4​

14​

53​

39​

7.6​

0.81​

1.89​

1.08​

3.77​

14.3​

10.5​

6.47​

222:31

1:40

32.6​

Filip Hronek

D

72​

2​

8​

1​

7​

10​

36​

20​

10​

0.91​

0.46​

3.19​

4.56​

16.4​

9.1​

6.84​

131:39

1:50

34.9​

Tyler Myers

D

278​

0​

4​

1​

3​

4​

23​

17​

0​

0​

0.54​

1.62​

2.16​

12.4​

9.2​

3.77​

111:19

0:24

7.8​

Nate Schmidt

D

54​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

10​

7​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

10.5​

7.3​

2.1​

57:15

1:04

21.9​

Brad Hunt

D

50​

0​

2​

2​

0​

2​

9​

7​

0​

0​

2.18​

0​

2.18​

9.8​

7.6​

4.35​

55:09

1:06

24.8​

Jack Rathbone

D

28​

0​

1​

0​

1​

1​

5​

5​

0​

0​

0​

2.11​

2.11​

10.6​

10.6​

10.55​

28:26

1:01

18.5​

Christian Wolanin

D

16​

0​

1​

0​

1​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

3.74​

3.74​

0​

0​

18.69​

16:03

1:00

18.2​

Alexander Edler

D

52​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

4.2​

0​

4.18​

14:22

0:17

5.9​

Akito Hirose

D

10​

0​

2​

1​

1​

2​

3​

2​

0​

0​

4.44​

4.44​

8.89​

13.3​

8.9​

8.89​

13:30

1:21

21.8​

Ethan Bear

D

61​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

14.4​

0​

7.19​

8:21

0:08

2.5​

Luke Schenn

D

121​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

8.2​

8.2​

0​

7:18

0:04

1.2​

Carson Soucy

D

26​

1​

1​

1​

0​

2​

1​

1​

100​

8.35​

8.35​

0​

16.71​

8.4​

8.4​

16.71​

7:11

0:17

5.4​

Ian Cole

D

67​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

7:01

0:06

2​

Nikita Zadorov

D

41​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

5:01

0:07

2.5​

Tucker Poolman

D

43​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

3:35

0:05

1.5​

Kyle Burroughs

D

90​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

34.6​

17.3​

0​

3:28

0:02

0.7​

Noah Juulsen

D

70​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2:04

0:02

0.5​

Mark Friedman

D

21​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:59

0:06

1.5​

Travis Dermott

D

28​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:27

0:03

1​

Travis Hamonic

D

62​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:17

0:01

0.4​

Guillaume Brisebois

D

19​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:07

0:04

1.2​

Riley Stillman

D

32​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

87.81​

0:41

0:01

0.4​

Olli Juolevi

D

23​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0:10

0:00

0.1​

Cole McWard

D

6​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0​

360.1​

0:10

0:02

0.4​

Jordie Benn

D

31​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0:08

0:00

0​

Madison Bowey

D

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Jalen Chatfield

D

18​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Brogan Rafferty

D

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Penalty kill

 

[arttk]

What has given you the impression that I don't understand where your desire to trade Boeser comes from? I get that you feel the risk of keeping him beyond this season is higher than the reward for trading him, if you didn't feel that way you wouldn't be arguing for trading him in the first place. My objections are to the idea that trading him is the only move that makes sense.

Apparently my stance on this is unclear so let me state it again:

I think Boeser is a plus asset this season and will continue to be next season, though I don't think 40 goals is likely without another hot streak. I don't think his NTC will be an issue as I think he's a pretty loyal player and will do what's best for the team, but I do think that a regression in his play could take him from a plus asset to a neutral asset that might not have enough trade value to be worth moving. I think there are numbers (term and AAV) that he would take on a contract extension that would make him worth extending beyond the end of next season but I don't know if there are any that would see him continue to be a positive asset. We'd be extending him for reasons of team fit and chemistry rather than the value of his counting stats.

Personally I think that management are planning our window around Miller and hoping that things line up so we can offramp from that into a retool around Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, and hopefully at least one of Lekkerimaki and Willander. If we're on this plan I think that pushes us towards keeping Boeser.

On the other hand, trading Boeser this offseason eases our cap structure, removes the risk of us losing him for nothing, and prevents us from signing him to a boat anchor contract for the sake of loyalty. The assets we get from moving him can offset the potential costs of moving on from Mikheyev and Garland. This leaves us with room to bring in 3 fresh wingers that may mesh better with Pettersson and Miller but runs the risk of landing us another Lindholm who's a fit on paper but doesn't gel well on the ice. Depending on how we decide to allocate our cap space we could run a real risk of taking a step back over the next two seasons if we can find a 25-30 goal scorer who fits on PP1.

I'm pretty neutral on which route is better because I don't know what management's high level goals are and where they see our team. If they think this season is a fluke they're going to be inclined to sell, if they think this was just a larger step forward than expected they might be more inclined to hold and keep buying.

I didn’t say trading Boeser is the only way. I said we should if he is asking for 7M+ or something they a 40goal scorer would ask for.

He has a NTc and he should use it and I don’t think he will waive it because of loyalty. That makes no f***ing sense. You should be good to us even though we are the one initiating the breakup. Not going to happen.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Not sure what stat you are using but you may have made the argument if is point shares or something.
You would have to include his PK and PP times.

Most of his ice time was as a defensive player having many other partners

Power play time and most of the defencemen he has had to play with.

Player

Pos

GP

PPG

PPA

PPA1

PPA2

PPP

PP iSAT

PP Shots

PP S%

PPG/60

PPA1/60

PPA2/60

PPP/60

PP iSAT/60

PP S/60

PP GF/60

PP TOI

PP TOI/GP

PP TOI%

Quinn Hughes

D

278​

4​

109​

54​

55​

113​

222​

162​

2.4​

0.23​

3.07​

3.12​

6.42​

12.6​

9.2​

8.63​

1056:11

3:48

74.2​

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

D

133​

3​

11​

7​

4​

14​

53​

39​

7.6​

0.81​

1.89​

1.08​

3.77​

14.3​

10.5​

6.47​

222:31

1:40

32.6​

Filip Hronek

D

72​

2​

8​

1​

7​

10​

36​

20​

10​

0.91​

0.46​

3.19​

4.56​

16.4​

9.1​

6.84​

131:39

1:50

34.9​

Tyler Myers

D

278​

0​

4​

1​

3​

4​

23​

17​

0​

0​

0.54​

1.62​

2.16​

12.4​

9.2​

3.77​

111:19

0:24

7.8​

Nate Schmidt

D

54​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

10​

7​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

10.5​

7.3​

2.1​

57:15

1:04

21.9​

Brad Hunt

D

50​

0​

2​

2​

0​

2​

9​

7​

0​

0​

2.18​

0​

2.18​

9.8​

7.6​

4.35​

55:09

1:06

24.8​

Jack Rathbone

D

28​

0​

1​

0​

1​

1​

5​

5​

0​

0​

0​

2.11​

2.11​

10.6​

10.6​

10.55​

28:26

1:01

18.5​

Christian Wolanin

D

16​

0​

1​

0​

1​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

3.74​

3.74​

0​

0​

18.69​

16:03

1:00

18.2​

Alexander Edler

D

52​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

4.2​

0​

4.18​

14:22

0:17

5.9​

Akito Hirose

D

10​

0​

2​

1​

1​

2​

3​

2​

0​

0​

4.44​

4.44​

8.89​

13.3​

8.9​

8.89​

13:30

1:21

21.8​

Ethan Bear

D

61​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

14.4​

0​

7.19​

8:21

0:08

2.5​

Luke Schenn

D

121​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

8.2​

8.2​

0​

7:18

0:04

1.2​

Carson Soucy

D

26​

1​

1​

1​

0​

2​

1​

1​

100​

8.35​

8.35​

0​

16.71​

8.4​

8.4​

16.71​

7:11

0:17

5.4​

Ian Cole

D

67​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

7:01

0:06

2​

Nikita Zadorov

D

41​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

5:01

0:07

2.5​

Tucker Poolman

D

43​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

3:35

0:05

1.5​

Kyle Burroughs

D

90​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2​

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

34.6​

17.3​

0​

3:28

0:02

0.7​

Noah Juulsen

D

70​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2:04

0:02

0.5​

Mark Friedman

D

21​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:59

0:06

1.5​

Travis Dermott

D

28​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:27

0:03

1​

Travis Hamonic

D

62​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:17

0:01

0.4​

Guillaume Brisebois

D

19​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

1:07

0:04

1.2​

Riley Stillman

D

32​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

87.81​

0:41

0:01

0.4​

Olli Juolevi

D

23​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0:10

0:00

0.1​

Cole McWard

D

6​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0​

360.1​

0:10

0:02

0.4​

Jordie Benn

D

31​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0:08

0:00

0​

Madison Bowey

D

2​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Jalen Chatfield

D

18​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Brogan Rafferty

D

1​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

--

--

0​

0​

0:00

0:00

0​

Penalty kill

It was even strength corsi over +220 games.

One line is the Canucks with Myers on ice.

The other is the Canucks with Myers off the ice.

Its a pretty drastic difference.

 

[F A N]

I didn’t say trading Boeser is the only way. I said we should if he is asking for 7M+ or something they a 40goal scorer would ask for.

He has a NTc and he should use it and I don’t think he will waive it because of loyalty. That makes no f***ing sense. You should be good to us even though we are the one initiating the breakup. Not going to happen.

Boeser is currently sitting tied for 9th in goals. I don't think 40 goal scorers are asking for $7M+ these days. It would be more. So $7M actually isn't unreasonable for Boeser to ask for, especially with the expectation of a rising cap.. Whether the team wants to pay him that type of money is another question. Last time around, this management team re-signed Boeser for 3x$6.65M and Boeser is hitting his projections this season after failing to do so last season.

 

[arttk]

Boeser is currently sitting tied for 9th in goals. I don't think 40 goal scorers are asking for $7M+ these days. It would be more. So $7M actually isn't unreasonable for Boeser to ask for, especially with the expectation of a rising cap.. Whether the team wants to pay him that type of money is another question. Last time around, this management team re-signed Boeser for 3x$6.65M and Boeser is hitting his projections this season after failing to do so last season.

Yeah that's true. I just took a look, Schiefle and Nylander are the latest 40 goal scorer to sign and they were paid a ton and a f*** ton of money respectively. If he touches 40G again next season the start price would be firmly in the 8M+.

Which begs the question, how comfortable will folks here be if his ask is like 7x7/6, 7.5x7/6, 8+/6-7? Even 7Mx6 would make me somewhat uncomfortable.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Yeah that's true. I just took a look, Schiefle and Nylander are the latest 40 goal scorer to sign and they were paid a ton and a f*** ton of money respectively. If he touches 40G again next season the start price would be firmly in the 8M+.

Which begs the question, how comfortable will folks here be if his ask is like 7x7/6, 7.5x7/6, 8+/6-7? Even 7Mx6 would make me somewhat uncomfortable.

6-years is right on the edge of my comfort zone as far as term goes. If it wasn't for the OEL buyout I'd really want to push for 9.5x4 over some like 7x6. I don't think we can afford that though, so I'd try to split the middle on a 5-year deal and settle for 6 at a below market rate cap hit.

 

[arttk]

6-years is right on the edge of my comfort zone as far as term goes. If it wasn't for the OEL buyout I'd really want to push for 9.5x4 over some like 7x6. I don't think we can afford that though, so I'd try to split the middle on a 5-year deal and settle for 6 at a below market rate cap hit.

I am just stating that it would be fair for him to ask for that if he hits 40G again next year. I guess even if he hits 30goals, I guess he could ask for 7+ and it would be “fair. And i guess we need to think about total money vs per year. 7x6 would be 42M so I presume that will be the absolute floor for what he’ll ask for.

 

[F A N]

Yeah that's true. I just took a look, Schiefle and Nylander are the latest 40 goal scorer to sign and they were paid a ton and a f*** ton of money respectively. If he touches 40G again next season the start price would be firmly in the 8M+.

Which begs the question, how comfortable will folks here be if his ask is like 7x7/6, 7.5x7/6, 8+/6-7? Even 7Mx6 would make me somewhat uncomfortable.

I'll take the playoffs to evaluate, but given Boeser's past history, I'm more concerned with term. I'm not sure what the Canucks can do here. The Canucks kind of conceded that he's worth closer to $7M in his last deal if he performs as expected (which Boeser is either producing or exceeding). Best case scenario is both sides concedes that there is some risk with Boeser but does that consession lead to lower term or lower AAV?

Regardless, if they don't try to negotiate a deal with Boeser in the offseason it's going to be taken as a slight. In my mind it's best to see how next season goes and then decide. Maybe have the framework of a deal in place and then see how Boeser starts next season and go from there. But it's kind of like trying to time a stock here. It's probably better to make a decision on Boeser in the offseason. I suppose we can wait and see what Toffoli signs for but I don't think Toffoli is going to help the Canucks. The 32 year old is probably getting a 3-4 year deal or possibly more?

 

[Tables of Stats]

I am just stating that it would be fair for him to ask for that if he hits 40G again next year. I guess even if he hits 30goals, I guess he could ask for 7+ and it would be “fair. And i guess we need to think about total money vs per year. 7x6 would be 42M so I presume that will be the absolute floor for what he’ll ask for.

I still get the feeling that he'll be loyal and take a haircut to stay with the team and I also don't expect him to score 40 again next season. I'd peg him closer to 35 if he can keep his shot volume up or 30 if he shoots less or he shots under my projected 16%. Hence the idea that something around 7x6 could be the floor for what it'll take to extend him. I would go as high as 8x6, but that would be my limit in terms of total contract value. I'd prefer to, within a workable cap structure, up AAV in exchange for shorter term something like 9.5x4 from 7x6, 10.75x4 from 8x6, etc.

 

[VanJack]

Boeser is headed into his UFA season next year, his last of a three year deal at $6.65m he signed at the start of the 2023 season.

Obviously he's in the midst of a career year. Yet only one year removed from Allvin and Rutherford giving the green light to Boeser and his agent to shop his services and test the trade waters around the NHL.

I suppose there's a chance Boeser might take a haircut on his next contract to stay in Vancouver. But if you believe that, you're a likely candidate for 'Truth Social'. I just don't see how the Canucks can justify not dealing him this time.

Allvin has already hinted at an influx of younger, cheaper players from Abbotsford next season. So I suspect Bains, Karlsson, Sasson and Podholzin will be seriously auditioning for openings in Vancouver.

It would be kind of a shame to lose Boeser who's always bled Canuck blue. But that's just the nature of the business.

 

[LemonSauceD]

If ur gonna trade Boeser you better find a replacement for him cause he’s literally our only top 6 winger.

 

[Bleach Clean]

If ur gonna trade Boeser you better find a replacement for him cause he’s literally our only top 6 winger.

He's the natural top6er. Garland, Hoglander, Suter and Mikheyev don't have his skill and hockey IQ. If management can get him to sign for term at around his $7m, they should pursue it this offseason. Don't wait to see if he will return in shape. Get him locked up.

Shooters will tend to be undervalued when compared to 2way players. It's a mistake.

 

[Bgav]

What’s Brock’s contract going to look like? I’d rather sign him sooner than later. The aav is just going to keep rising

 

[Russian_fanatic]

Brock is finally back on track and looks go be a 35-40 goal guy. No way I'm letting him go now, after we put up with those down years, and him looking like he was never going to live up to his goal scoring potential.

 

[arttk]

What’s Brock’s contract going to look like? I’d rather sign him sooner than later. The aav is just going to keep rising

Probably starts with a 8 and I am guessing 6 year term.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

This team desperately needs another Brock Boeser as the missing piece for PP1 and to play with Petey, we can’t lose the only one we have lol. Garland & DeBrusk are really good but not quite at Brock Boeser’s level, resigning him is a no brainer even if it’s 7.5-8M on a longer term deal.

 

[LordBacon]

7.5 x 7 yrs.

Do it cowards.

 

[RandV]

I think it's
a given we're going to extend him, the question comes down to how team friendly it is. The way I look at it for players his age signing 8 year deals some guys use their UFA leverage to take full present day pay right through their mid/late 30's while others while others acknowledge they won't be as valuable at the back end of the contract and allow some back diving to lower the average.

The difference here would be something like a $9M/8yr vs a $7M/8yr contract for Boeser.

 

[Canucker]

When I look at Boeser I see Brett Hull "lite"...in his Dallas and Detroit years, pretty clunky, slow stride, but very smart and gets to the right places and makes the right decisions with the puck at both ends of the ice. Valuable player in so many ways, but not one you want to overpay, because IMO he's not a guy who drives play on his own. Hoping he signs for a team friendly sum, maybe $7.5m/yr or thereabouts.

 

[credulous]

i think they have to sign boeser if they want to remain competitive but if there was ever a player to be skeptical about handing out a long term deal to it's gotta be boeser, right? we've all seen what happens when he loses a step

 

[VanJack]

If ur gonna trade Boeser you better find a replacement for him cause he’s literally our only top 6 winger.

Even at the end of last season, when Boeser had a 'career year' I just didn't think there was any way the Canucks could give him a raise on his $6.65m contract and bring him back.

But I'm rapidly changing my mind. Brock might be one of these guys who gets smarter and more savvy with age--someone like a Mark Stone, a Zach Hyman or a Jonathan Marchessault. He'll likely be very productive well into his 30's.

So absolutely. You can't deal Boeser until you have a scoring replacement. That guy could be Lekkerimaki. But until he comes in and actually 'does it', you pretty well have to stick with Brock.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Even at the end of last season, when Boeser had a 'career year' I just didn't think there was any way the Canucks could give him a raise on his $6.65m contract and bring him back.

But I'm rapidly changing my mind. Brock might be one of these guys who gets smarter and more savvy with age--someone like a Mark Stone, a Zach Hyman or a Jonathan Marchessault. He'll likely be very productive well into his 30's.

So absolutely. You can't deal Boeser until you have a scoring replacement. That guy could be Lekkerimaki. But until he comes in and actually 'does it', you pretty well have to stick with Brock.

The thing with Boeser is that unlike others he doesn’t rely on his skating ability to be effective so he’s less likely to fall of a cliff than others just based off that alone. Obviously regression is expected after about 31 as long as he’s healthy.

7x8M is fair. Hes literally our only legitimate first line calibre winger and Miller’s right hand man. Lock him up.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

The thing with Boeser is that unlike others he doesn’t rely on his skating ability to be effective so he’s less likely to fall of a cliff than others just based off that alone. Obviously regression is expected after about 31 as long as he’s healthy.

7x8M is fair. Hes literally our only legitimate first line calibre winger and Miller’s right hand man. Lock him up.

I feel like while well -reasoned, and the chances are likely with said reasoning, but trajectory is so hard to get right.

But Brock has been playing his best hockey this calendar year. He’s found another level, he’s winning battles regularly now, his attention to the defensive side is so much better, and his retrievals continue to improve. I have little qualms about giving BB6 a raise.