Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[Tables of Stats]

that's not really our job is it. seems like they are quite effective at getting players they targeted. sounds like the only player they targeted and couldn't sign was Vatrano and the rest of the guys we targeted we got.

I think we are an attractive team to UFAs when we are winning and guess what, we are winning.

I think that if you're pushing for a trade you should have more than a wild fantasy about what that outgoing players replacement is going to be as well as a check down list of what happens if that ideal case falls through. I'm not saying that trading away Boeser is a bad idea, I just get frustrated when people don't put in the work finishing their thoughts; doubly so when people are very upfront about presenting their idea as the correct one.

Trading Boeser for a late 1st rounder to recoup assets and fix our cap structure is, in an ideal world, our best course of action. In a less than ideal world, one where we can't get our choice of UFA at our desired price, the scale starts to slide up to where keeping Boeser looks less risky. If you want to convince people that trading him is the best bet do your homework and show why getting rid of Boeser isn't as risky as it seems.

 

[arttk]

How much are you willing to spend to get a player worth 5 million that can replace Boeser?

5 million

 

[WTG]

5 million

Good luck finding a player that can do what Boeser does for 5 million. Only way you get these players for that price is through trade.

 

[arttk]

Good luck finding a player that can do what Boeser does for 5 million. Only way you get these players for that price is through trade.

I mean we can probably get Toffoli for around 4-5M and park him beside Miller and get similar production and he will demand less term.

 

[Tables of Stats]

How much are you willing to spend to get a player worth 5 million that can replace Boeser? It's not going to be cheap. Lekkermaki hasn't even played a single game for the Canucks, and we have no idea how long he is going to take to adjust to play top-end minutes. Lekkermaki could be 2-3 years to fill Boeser's shoes for all we know. Or he could just bust out.

I'm just spit balling options for what we can do with Boeser. I'm not pushing to keep him or pushing to trade him because I haven't spent the time looking at possible trade/UFA targets to replace him with and don't know what he's looking for on his next contract.

I think the ideal scenario would be to get a 1st back for Boeser and package Boeser + Podkolzin to find a $4.5 to $6 million winger who our pro scouting feels is on the verge of breaking out. Basically hitting another JT Miller style homerun.

The bad case scenario, not the worst but still not what you'd want to see, is that we probably make a trade for a 2nd and a B-prospect and have to use those assets (or existing assets of similar value) to move Mikheyev and then replace Boeser and Mikheyev with cheaper players in free agency.

If we keep Boeser we still need to bleed assets to move bad contracts in the offseason but lock in a 30g - 35a scorer for another season. Then we risk losing him for nothing if his ask is too high or losing more assets down the line when we can't afford to keep a declining offense only winger on the roster.

The reality is that, as well as this team has played and as good as our best players are, we're still a team constructed on a terrible foundation of bad cap hits and fixing things is no easy task.

 

[Regal]

Good luck finding a player that can do what Boeser does for 5 million. Only way you get these players for that price is through trade.

I think you’re overrating what Boeser does. Without his inflated shooting percentage this year and at his career numbers, he’d be at 24 goals (another 30 goal pace) again who doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table other than a decent cycle/passer player. He’s worth more than 5 million this year, sure, but he hasn’t really been worth much more in his poor seasons. The poster’s point I think was you could replace him with someone who brings more to the table outside of production, and hopefully some of that production will be made up for in bigger roles to others.

I also think the big thing here is about the next contract, not next season. You might take a step back next year, but do you want him long term if his demands are high? I’m not so sure.

 

[Diversification]

One of the oddest things about the arguments in this thread is that many of the same people who are clamoring to sell the farm to acquire Buchnevic because OMG he has 1 extra year left on this contract, are the same as the people who want to sell high on Brock Boeser while he still has value with 1 year left on his contract. I get that they're different players bring different elements to their game, but they're both 1st line wingers and we currently have one of them with one more year under contract!

Long story short, just keep Brock for next year. There's no pressure to re-sign him this offseason. See how it goes and whether he's willing to take a shorter term deal if it makes sense in terms of AAV and fit.

 

[Regal]

One of the oddest things about the arguments in this thread is that many of the same people who are clamoring to sell the farm to acquire Buchnevic because OMG he has 1 extra year left on this contract, are the same as the people who want to sell high on Brock Boeser while he still has value with 1 year left on his contract. I get that they're different players bring different elements to their game, but they're both 1st line wingers and we currently have one of them with one more year under contract!

Long story short, just keep Brock for next year. There's no pressure to re-sign him this offseason. See how it goes and whether he's willing to take a shorter term deal if it makes sense in terms of AAV and fit.

I think this is a fair point. You could argue keeping Boeser and letting him walk if his demands are too high is no different than paying the assets you’d acquire for him as if he’s a rental. The big thing is that he hasn’t been consistent year to year so there’s no telling what he’s going to bring next year. If he plays like last year he’s overpaid for next year and you lose out on the assets you get for him. So that’s where selling high might be worth it.

 

[VanillaCoke]

u r high if you think they're trading BROCK BOESER.

 

[arttk]

Guys we have to pivot this to Lekkerimaki now.

 

[Peen]

u r high if you think they're trading BROCK BOESER.

what would you pay him?

——

separate note, i was going through capfriendly today and it’s pretty hard to come up with similar UFA comparables for brock.

 

[arttk]

One of the oddest things about the arguments in this thread is that many of the same people who are clamoring to sell the farm to acquire Buchnevic because OMG he has 1 extra year left on this contract, are the same as the people who want to sell high on Brock Boeser while he still has value with 1 year left on his contract. I get that they're different players bring different elements to their game, but they're both 1st line wingers and we currently have one of them with one more year under contract!

Long story short, just keep Brock for next year. There's no pressure to re-sign him this offseason. See how it goes and whether he's willing to take a shorter term deal if it makes sense in terms of AAV and fit.

I am for trading for Buch with retention around TDL with assets we get for Boeser

 

[VanillaCoke]

what would you pay him?

——

Something that starts with a seven, I won't be shocked if it's another deal that starts with a six though..

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Why would Boeser sign for less of the % cap than he did before when he is a better player now than he was when he signed this contract? I think you'd easily sign Boeser to a 6-year contract at 7.5m.

It's fine if he wants more, and he will probably get it in the open market. Doesn't mean Allvin should pay it though. Gaudreau, Lucic, Okposo, Eriksson, all scoring wingers in their late 20s that got big bucks in UFA, I doubt any of the teams regret letting them go. Calgary definitely wish they let Huberdeau leave via UFA instead of signing that anchor of a contract.

Based solely on history, it appears more often than not, signing 1 dimensional scoring wingers in their late 20s to long term UFA contract is almost always a mistake. Doubly so if they are not good skaters to begin with.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

One of the oddest things about the arguments in this thread is that many of the same people who are clamoring to sell the farm to acquire Buchnevic because OMG he has 1 extra year left on this contract, are the same as the people who want to sell high on Brock Boeser while he still has value with 1 year left on his contract. I get that they're different players bring different elements to their game, but they're both 1st line wingers and we currently have one of them with one more year under contract!

Long story short, just keep Brock for next year. There's no pressure to re-sign him this offseason. See how it goes and whether he's willing to take a shorter term deal if it makes sense in terms of AAV and fit.

Not advocating trading Boeser for peanuts then turn around selling the farm for Buchnevich, I don't think anybody is saying that.

What people are suggesting is, IF the opportunity comes up in the summer to sell high on Boeser, something along a 1st round pick +, then Allvin should consider doing that and use the new assets + a little more to get somebody like Buch. If Boeser is only worth a 3rd in the trade market, then just keep him as a "self-rental".

 

[Peen]

I mean we can probably get Toffoli for around 4-5M and park him beside Miller and get similar production and he will demand less term.

feel like i remember reading around the tdl that toffoli wants to stay in the usa and wants term.

keep in mind his age and what years you’d be buying

 

[arttk]

feel like i remember reading around the tdl that toffoli wants to stay in the usa and wants term.

keep in mind his age and what years you’d be buying

wanting term could mean more than 1 year.
He also wanted to stay here last time around so it’s not like a long shot to get him.

 

[Peen]

People are talking about Boeser like he is some kind of ancient being almost. The guy turned twenty-seven 18 days ago.

Why would Boeser sign for less of the % cap than he did before when he is a better player now than he was when he signed this contract? I think you'd easily sign Boeser to a 6-year contract at 7.5m.

it’s not just about age though. like i always liked term on miller more than the average 27-28 year old UFA just because i felt like he projected better.

brock will be 28.4 when he hits ufa

i just see a complimentary winger with meh foot speed. i think with these types of players, you should keep their salaries closer to the cap percentages toffoli and rnh signed for.

 

[Nuckles]

To everyone who replied to me, I said the smart long-term play would be to sell high on him. If we're only focused on short-term then it's probably better to keep him.

Though you could argue it still may be better to trade him, sign another winger, then use the asset(s) we acquired for Boeser on a mid-season acquisition to bolster the team, or even within that same off-season.

Who are people looking to target as the Boeser replacement?

As for upcoming UFAs, it's probably realistic to look at non-top options that can be signed to shorter term contracts.
Guys like Arvidsson and Toffoli for right handed shots. Maybe DeBrusk or Teravainen for left shot RW options. Maybe a slight chance an older guy like Marchessault could even be possible.

Most likely a downgrade from this season's Boeser, but also likely not a massive contract that hampers the team long-term. Most likely saving cap space next season as well unless we're signing a higher-end guy.

If you want to move on from him that's one thing but I really don't think there's going to be a "sell high" option. Again one-dimensional scoring wingers position is at the bottom of 1st/2nd line value, and he's one year from UFA with all the uncertainty that brings. If the Canucks don't want him why would anyone else pay a big price for him?

Could end up like a Nate Schmidt situation where you need to trade him and the best value you can get is something like a 3rd round pick. I'd say a late 1st rounder at best.

Obviously we have no way of knowing what the market would be like for him, but the NHL isn't filled with 32 genius GMs who never make a poor decision or mistake.
Shop him around before July 1st and if you can get a late 1st+ (including 2025 1st) or equivalent value prospect you strongly consider moving him. Keep him if it isn't the case. Not a hard decision.

 

[Tables of Stats]

To everyone who replied to me, I said the smart long-term play would be to sell high on him. If we're only focused on short-term then it's probably better to keep him.

That says nothing. The better long-term play would be to sell Hughes, Pettersson, Miller, and Demko; after all, they're all depreciating assets while a 1st round pick could be the next McDavid! In a more sane example, the best long-term move is to keep your best players young, and get veteran presence in the Luke Schenns and Ian Coles of the league. Guys hit the end of their 1st 8-year contract, and you sell them and draft the next group.

Nobody does this.

 

[arttk]

That says nothing. The better long-term play would be to sell Hughes, Pettersson, Miller, and Demko; after all, they're all depreciating assets while a 1st round pick could be the next McDavid! In a more sane example, the best long-term move is to keep your best players young, and get veteran presence in the Luke Schenns and Ian Coles of the league. Guys hit the end of their 1st 8-year contract, and you sell them and draft the next group.

Nobody does this.

don't need to stretch the logic to the maximum to try to invalidate it. if you go that far you might as well say all draft picks will eventually die at some point, and what is the point of playing hockey if we all die, why don't we all just give up with life because death is coming. hell the sun will destroy the earth in X billion years, what's the point of even continuing civilization, just f***ign give up already.

yes all players will eventually decline, the issue is how much risk do we want to take on. Boeser at the end of his contract is going to be 28 and he is already pretty slow. We have already seen whenever he gets injured and slows down a bit his production drops quite a bit. Based on that observation and the fact athletes at 30 tends to slow down, we can predict that the probability of him declining is higher. So knowing that, do we want to have another player that might not perform up his contract?

 

[Tables of Stats]

don't need to stretch the logic to the maximum to try to invalidate it. if you go that far you might as well say all draft picks will eventually die at some point, and what is the point of playing hockey if we all die, why don't we all just give up with life because death is coming. hell the sun will destroy the earth in X billion years, what's the point of even continuing civilization, just f***ign give up already.

yes all players will eventually decline, the issue is how much risk do we want to take on. Boeser at the end of his contract is going to be 28 and he is already pretty slow. We have already seen whenever he gets injured and slows down a bit his production drops quite a bit. Based on that observation and the fact athletes at 30 tends to slow down, we can predict that the probability of him declining is higher. So knowing that, do we want to have another player that might not perform up his contract?

I don't think it's insane to look at moving on from your stars as they enter that 28 - 30 year old range after finishing their 3-year ELC, and are nearing the end of their 8-year contract. As insane as it sounds the Penguins should have sold Crosby, Malkin, and Letang after their second straight 1st round exit in the 19-20 season. At that point they hadn't been past the second round since their 16-17 cup win and that appearance was in 17-18. They instead chose to try to extend the window and that choice means they probably won't get more shots to win another cup for a half decade at least.

The fact is, even though you can look at a ton of teams and find these same patterns owners and GMs want to keep their playoff windows open even if it comes at the expense of their cup windows.

Allow me to indulge in a hypothetical:

If Pettersson had signed a 5 year deal with a final year NTC and in year 4 of that deal was having a season where he was pacing for 25 goals and 75 points after seasons of 35g/110p, 30g/80p, 30g/85p. We've been to the WCF once in that span in 24-25 but have had a first and second round exit since then. Miller's still a 65 point player, but his best years are clearly behind him. Would you advocate for trading Pettersson before his NTC kicks in?

Whatever your answer to the above the more important question is; do you see an NHL GM with his job on the line making this trade?

 

[LemonSauceD]

5x6.5M I’d be fine signing him to. Takes him to 33.

Boeser is fine if you can find 3 other wingers in the top 6 that can bring the other elements that Boeser lacks. He’ll probably regress to an older Vanek/current Toffoli type player by the end of it.

Replacing Boeser’s contribution is going to be difficult. Banking on a 19 year old to come in and replace him is laughable at best.

 

[Nucker101]

5x6.5M I’d be fine signing him to. Takes him to 33.

Boeser is fine if you can find 3 other wingers in the top 6 that can bring the other elements that Boeser lacks. He’ll probably regress to an older Vanek/current Toffoli type player by the end of it.

Replacing Boeser’s contribution is going to be difficult. Banking on a 19 year old to come in and replace him is laughable at best.

Wouldn't 5 years take him to 31? I think giving him 6 or 7 years is fine to keep the AAV down(no full NTC either, those should be for star players only).

 

[VanJack]

Could Lekkerimaki actually replace Boeser on the Canucks as a scoring forward, in his rookie season? Not likely....but not impossible either.

One thing is for certain. The competition for Boeser's spot as a scoring forward will be wide open at training camp. Can't see much chance of the Canucks bringing him back to play out his UFA season.

Unlike the situation with Petey, they just don't have the cap space for Boeser's current contract, much less the raise he'll be expecting.