HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

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Our record did not take a dip.

March 1st : .458
February 1st .490
January 1st .486
December 1st : .478

We have been pretty consistent all season long. The dip is small and was to be expected as experienced teams are entering playoffs mode. It happens all years. If we went from .550 to .450 then yeah i'd agree about the dip.
Fair enough. Point is it didn't deviate us from the ranking we had. We saw alot of progress and development from the majority of our future core despite the bad record. Just like tonight's game. Hopefully this continues to a 5th overall spot.
 
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So for the record if the choice is between Slafkovsky, Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, Xhekaj all finishing the season strong and we end up with 7th OA or half those guys slumping over the final 14 games but finishing 5th OA you'd want our guys to struggle to maximize the odds of the draft pick?

Well, for sure, ideally, those guys do well and we still lose enough to get to 5th, or even 4th overall.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. Those 5 young, plus Newhook, RHP, and Struble, players aren't enough to carry a young team. They can all do well and we can still continue to lose a hugexamount of one goal games - preferably in regulation.
 
Just a few comments:

1. I always said I hated tanking in previous years, and often argued with some posters here about our playoff chances in some years - but this was really all about Carey Price to me. I realize this more and more last 2 years. I always felt "no, let's just make playoffs, anything can happen"....but with Carey Price. Without him? If we make playoffs this year or last or next (barring some huge unexpected roster turnover) we ain't going anywhere.

Morale of the story? I really miss Carey Price.

2. Right now we're 7th from bottom - barring some huge unexpected surge (by us, or a bottom 3 team), I'd say there's an ~90%+ chance the range of positions we end up in this year is anywhere from 4th to 7th from bottom. Meaning - with a bit of luck, all of Columbus, Arizona and Ottawa pass us and we finish 4th from bottom. I don't think this is a particularly deep draft is it? Would certainly be nice to win the lottry still..

3. For years there's been debates around here and among other Hab fans about whether team should rebuild or not. Clearly - we are rebuilding now. I think it's the right strategy - but from a business standpoint you can tell what a difference it makes. I don't post in the Habs section very often lately, and the game and post-game threads are insanely shorter lately than they have been in years past when we were in the playoff hunt. I get why owners are often iffy about rebuilding, it probably has a truly big impact on bottom line.
 
Desired results for tonight:

- ARI OT/SO win vs. SEA: ARI win moves them 1 pt ahead of MTL. MTL with a game in hand. SEA with a loser point move 7 pts ahead.
- CBJ win vs. COL: CBJ win moves them 2 pts behind MTL. MTL with a game in hand.
- PIT win vs. DAL: PIT win moves them 9 pts ahead.

*Only way ARI moves ahead of MTL is with a win. A loss in OT/SO would tie MTL at 62 pts, but with a game in hand, MTL will remain ahead.*
 
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Desired results for tonight:

- ARI OT/SO win vs. SEA: ARI win moves them 1 pt ahead of MTL. MTL with a game in hand. SEA with a loser point move 7 pts ahead.
- CBJ win vs. COL: CBJ win moves them 2 pts behind MTL. MTL with a game in hand.
- PIT win vs. DAL: PIT win moves them 9 pts ahead.

*Only way ARI moves ahead of MTL is with a win. A loss in OT/SO would tie MTL at 62 pts, but with a game in hand, MTL will remain ahead.*

Not feeling good about this lol

Still remain a point ahead of our expected points due to that OTL in Edmonton. The good news is in 3 weeks of action we have only picked up 6 points, so we haven't distanced ourselves from Ottawa and Arizona despite their terrible play.

It's a busy week with 4 games next week, those OTLs against Seattle and PHI could easily turn to Ws, but it'd be nice to see them drop an additional point in this stretch to get us back on the expected point total because of the aforementioned shittiness of AZ/OTT.

OpponentsExpected ResultActual Result
NSH; CAR; TORW; L; LW; L; L
CBJ; BOS; CGYW; L; OTLW; OTL; L
EDM; VANL; LOTL; L
SEA; COL; PHI; CAROTL; L; OTL; L
FLA; TB; TORL; OTL; L
NYR; PHI; NYI; OTTL; OTL; OTL; W
DET; DETW; L
Expected PointsActual Points
5 pts6 pts
 
When does Ottawa start winning?!?!

ott.jpg
 
those loser ass 12 OT points piss me off everytime i look at the standings
Note shootout losses and 3 on 3 losses mean we tied the actual hockey game and lost the gimmick.

We actually have 10 wins in the gimmicks (shootout and OT). This is more than the teams below us, who have between 3 and 6. Before the shootout and 3 on 3 gimmicks, when those would have been ties, we'd be even lower in the standings. We'd be below Columbus and 7 points ahead of Anaheim, instead of 11 points ahead.

Our record if you take away shootout and 3 on 3 wins and make them ties would be 15 - 32 - 22, not 25 - 32 - 12.
 
Well, for sure, ideally, those guys do well and we still lose enough to get to 5th, or even 4th overall.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. Those 5 young, plus Newhook, RHP, and Struble, players aren't enough to carry a young team. They can all do well and we can still continue to lose a hugexamount of one goal games - preferably in regulation.
And it's not mutually exclusive that we win half the remaining games and still fall behind teams Arizona or Ottawa and draft 5th. But when that's brought up you say no no no we have to lose to maximize our odds, but when it's deciding what's more important better development of the guys in the NHL or getting a slightly better pick it's never about the odds anymore it's just head in the sand they aren't mutually exclusive so I refuse to answer.
 
And it's not mutually exclusive that we win half the remaining games and still fall behind teams Arizona or Ottawa and draft 5th. But when that's brought up you say no no no we have to lose to maximize our odds, but when it's deciding what's more important better development of the guys in the NHL or getting a slightly better pick it's never about the odds anymore it's just head in the sand they aren't mutually exclusive so I refuse to answer.
Well ideally we can agree that the best case scenario is Suzuki, Cole, Slaf, etc... produce as much as possible, we win as much as possible, but because Ottawa, Columbus, and Arizona all also win a lot, we still finish 4th or 5th last.

Because that is unlikely, I will say I root first for finishing 4th (or 5th) last, 2nd for Cole, Nick, Slaf, etc... to have a good final 13 games when it comes to point production, and only after those two have been playing out, for the team to win as many games as possible. Why have 4th or 5th overall ahead of Slaf, Suzuki, and Caufield producing well over the final 13 games? Because it won't kill their development to only producee modestly in losses when we're a one line team and teams are focusing on clamping down on them. I really want to add a stud at 4th or 5th overall and don't want to hear for the next 18 years that we wanted player x but had to pick player y because he didn't fall to us.
 
Well ideally we can agree that the best case scenario is Suzuki, Cole, Slaf, etc... produce as much as possible, we win as much as possible, but because Ottawa, Columbus, and Arizona all also win a lot, we still finish 4th or 5th last.

Because that is unlikely, I will say I root first for finishing 4th (or 5th) last, 2nd for Cole, Nick, Slaf, etc... to have a good final 13 games when it comes to point production, and only after those two have been playing out, for the team to win as many games as possible. Why have 4th or 5th overall ahead of Slaf, Suzuki, and Caufield producing well over the final 13 games? Because it won't kill their development to only producee modestly in losses when we're a one line team and teams are focusing on clamping down on them. I really want to add a stud at 4th or 5th overall and don't want to hear for the next 18 years that we wanted player x but had to pick player y because he didn't fall to us.
It's also unlikely that our young core plays well and we just start losing more for no reason and out tank those other teams. So if we are sticking to likely scenarios instead of best case scenarios then it becomes a choice of what you'd rather see a better draft pick or better play from our young NHL core.
 
It's also unlikely that our young core plays well and we just start losing more for no reason and out tank those other teams. So if we are sticking to likely scenarios instead of best case scenarios then it becomes a choice of what you'd rather see a better draft pick or better play from our young NHL core.
Our young core can play well and still not produce. As a one line team, it's hard to produce.

Again though, hopefully they produce, and we lose.
 
Our young core can play well and still not produce. As a one line team, it's hard to produce.

Again though, hopefully they produce, and we lose.
And Ottawa and Arizona can go on hot streaks as they have before. So hopefully we win a bunch of games but still get passed.

And for the record your not asking them to produce and the team to lose which is what we've been doing all season, your asking them to produce and for the team to lose much much more. For Columbus to pass us we'd have to something like 0.231. That's worse then we were under Ducharme, it's worse then SJ has been this year.
 
And Ottawa and Arizona can go on hot streaks as they have before. So hopefully we win a bunch of games but still get passed.

And for the record your not asking them to produce and the team to lose which is what we've been doing all season, your asking them to produce and for the team to lose much much more. For Columbus to pass us we'd have to something like 0.231. That's worse then we were under Ducharme, it's worse then SJ has been this year.
It's not likely for Columbus to pass us, but it is possible. They need two more wins than us. It's a small sample size, 13 games left. Over any 4 game sequence, we could easily go 0-4, and Columbus 2-2, for example. The Ducks for example are 2-8 in their last 10. But I was someone who was in favor of trading Savard to help us go on that kind of streak.
 
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It's not likely for Columbus to pass us, but it is possible. They need two more wins than us. It's a small sample size, 13 games left. Over any 4 game sequence, we could easily go 0-4, and Columbus 2-2, for example. The Ducks for example are 2-8 in their last 10. But I was someone who was in favor of trading Savard to help us go on that kind of streak.
So when it's the thing you want all that matters is that it's possible even if it's unlikely, but when it's not what you want then being possible isn't enough and we should ignore it anything that is unlikely. How flexible of you.
 
So when it's the thing you want all that matters is that it's possible even if it's unlikely, but when it's not what you want then being possible isn't enough and we should ignore it anything that is unlikely. How flexible of you.
I think it's more realistic for Columbus to go 2-2 at some point in the remaining 13 games while we go 0-4, and then the other games are pretty much the same, than for us to win a lot of games and Columbus to win so many more games that they pass us.

There's unlikely. And there are pipe dreams.
 
I think it's more realistic for Columbus to go 2-2 at some point in the remaining 13 games while we go 0-4, and then the other games are pretty much the same, than for us to win a lot of games and Columbus to win so many more games that they pass us.

There's unlikely. And there are pipe dreams.
And how realistic is it for us our core players to all play well but for our record to take a nose dive? You think that's not a pipe dream?
 
And how realistic is it for us our core players to all play well but for our record to take a nose dive? You think that's not a pipe dream?
As MSL says, sometimes the wins don't indicate how well we play. Yes, I think it is possible for us to go on a losing streak for 4 games, but our young players still play well over the final 14 games as a whole.

I don't like that Roy is injured. But it should help the tank over the final 15 games (including last night). It makes the second line weaker, and the overall offense even more anemic.
 
I just be glad when this God forsaken rebuild is over. Finally see good hockey again in Montreal.

But I imagine I have few more years of this pitiful hockey. Because Eiserman, Catton, or whomever we take be a few years yet before they contribute significantly to team. Reinbacher/Mailloux/Hutson be couple of years before they mature
 
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