HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

  • Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.
eh no. The no man land is between 11th and 17th (ish). You can be in da playoffs and be in no man's land. I'd consider The Flyers in no man's land even if they will make the playoffs. I remember one year where we made the playoffs from the back door after a 7 games winning streak to end the year and we were in no man's land. A top 10 pick is a very good pick specially this year. I hope it will be closer to 5 than 10 but it's going to be a good pick and we are 100% rebuilding we just traded Monahan.
 
Did people honestly think they were gonna lose to Nashville?
The media and the anti-tank fans spent a complete week clamoring the incredibleness of Nashville and praising their anti-tank jackpot winning strategy. I don't watch them so hey i believed those people that Nashville was a top dog and an unbeatable team (not true i know their lineup is not great). So that legendary team too good to not tank ever surely had to win against us in a position where they actually had to win to secure a playoffs spot right?

As i always say don't evaluate teams and players during a bad sequence or good sequence. Look at the big picture.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WeThreeKings
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.

They've picked 1st and 5th. Outside of Chicago, not a single team has gotten their best player from the last two drafts. It would be strange if Caufield and Suzuki weren't still the two best players on the team unless they traded both.
 
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Expected Result[/TD]
[TD]Actual Result[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NSH; CAR; TOR[/TD]
[TD]W; L; L[/TD]
[TD]W;[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CBJ; BOS; CGY[/TD]
[TD]W; L; OTL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EDM; VAN[/TD]
[TD]L; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SEA; COL; PHI; CAR[/TD]
[TD]OTL; L; OTL; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FLA; TB; TOR[/TD]
[TD]L; OTL; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYR; PHI; NYI; OTT[/TD]
[TD]L; OTL; OTL; W[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DET; DET[/TD]
[TD]W; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Expected Points[/TD]
[TD]Actual Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]2 pts[/TD]
[TD]2 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Last nights win doesn't change anything in terms of our projected 70 pts by end of the year.
 
Concerning the no man's land. Being in no man's land is not that bad, What's bad about it is when you have a GM who actually think the team is good (Rejean Houle). I like the fact that Brière is listening for Sean Walker and Nick Seeler. I think he recognizes his team is not good and he has to add picks. [edit] scratch that last part apparently Briere is dumb and will extend Seeler for 4 years. That's going to be a terrible contract. Despite what lot of our fans say there's value in having multiple top 100 picks even if they are not top 10.

It's totally possible to find elite talent outside the top 10. It's just that the probability are higher in the top 10. But if you got 6-7 top 100 picks then you have more chance to hit. Low probability just mean it will take more attempts to succeed not that you wont succeed. As long as the GM of a team in no man's land recognize that his team is not good and sell some vets on the decline (or close to be) for picks or young players then it's fine.

Usually in the 2nd half of the 1st round the probability to get a solid top 6 player is around 15% give or take. In the first half of the 2nd round around 7-8%. If you got plenty of picks there your chances are higher than people think. Either way you must have a good drafting team to draft well.
 
Last edited:
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.
This makes no sense...they finished last over 2 years ago, that's how they ended up with Slafkovsky.

What you've seen here since then is slow, but incremental progress...if it translates into the Habs picking 10th as a result, then that's not a bad thing.

It's a sign that things are progressing.

You know what's a sign that your tanking stinks?

When you keep picking in the bottom 3-5.

They don't scout draft slots, they scout players...there's absolutely no reason to not be able to select an impact player in the top 10-15 of a draft. Happens all the time.
 
are you the one making this projection or is there some kind of tool somewhere? Or are you the tool? lol jk, I had to do it
1709741625793.png
 
are you the one making this projection or is there some kind of tool somewhere? Or are you the tool? lol jk, I had to do it

I'm making the projection and so I am the tool.

But I think it's pretty reasonable, you'd expect a tank team to lose to contenders/solid play-off teams, the mushy middle would be your OTLs and your flat out bad teams are your Ws.

This makes no sense...they finished last over 2 years ago, that's how they ended up with Slafkovsky.

What you've seen here since then is slow, but incremental progress...if it translates into the Habs picking 10th as a result, then that's not a bad thing.

It's a sign that things are progressing.

You know what's a sign that your tanking stinks?

When you keep picking in the bottom 3-5.

They don't scout draft slots, they scout players...there's absolutely no reason to not be able to select an impact player in the top 10-15 of a draft. Happens all the time.

Zach Benson went 13th and this board nearly killed itself, yet when the Habs are projected to pick 6th or 7th in a defense heavy draft, the sky has fallen.
 
I'm making the projection and so I am the tool.

But I think it's pretty reasonable, you'd expect a tank team to lose to contenders/solid play-off teams, the mushy middle would be your OTLs and your flat out bad teams are your Ws.

I agree these make sense. I feel like this team is highly unpredictable though and that makes it basically impossible to predict but if I had to make the same projection you did, I most likely would have come up with a very similar result
 
  • Like
Reactions: WeThreeKings
I agree these make sense. I feel like this team is highly unpredictable though and that makes it basically impossible to predict but if I had to make the same projection you did, I most likely would have come up with a very similar result

I also think that the likelihood is we end up with more than 70 points, but we have a buffer with that to win an additional 6ish points without tangibly impacting our draft position.
 
Here's a smattering of top forwards picked between 7th and 15th from 2003-2019. I omitted 2020 and beyond as many of the players are still prospects in that range in those years.

What we see, is that each year (with the exception of 2018), there are players picked in that range that are not only top 6 players, but many of them are all stars. The chances obviously decrease, the later our pick gets, but my point is, in the 7th to 15th range, there should be at least one player available that will fit in nicely on our top 6. The question becomes, do you trust our scouting department to find that player, and our development to develop that player? If you don't, maybe we trade anything after 7th for Zegras if possible.

Don't lose hope my friend. Hope is all we have.

2003 - Jeff Carter (11th)
2004 - Alex Radulov (15th)
2005 - Anze Kopitar (11th)
2006 - Kyle Okposo (7th)
2007 - Jakub Voaracek (7th)
2008 - Josh Bailey (9th)
2009 - Nazem Kadri (7th)
2010 - Jeff Skinner (7th)
2011 - Scheifele (7th), Couts (8th), JT Miller (15th)
2012 - Filip Forsberg (11th)
2013 - Bo Horvat (9th)
2014 - Nylander (8th), Fiala (11th), Larkin (15th)
2015 - Meier (9th), Rantanen (10th)
2016 - Clayton Keller (7th)
2017 - Suzuki (13th)
2018 - Slim pickings at forward, but Quinn Hughes (7th) and Dobson (12th)
2019 - Cozens (7th), Zegras (9th), Boldy (12th), Caufield (15th)
Habs need to draft a better forward than anyone on this list (except for Kopitar) with their 1st if the rebuild is going to be a success.
 
Habs need to draft a better forward than anyone on this list (except for Kopitar) with their 1st if the rebuild is going to be a success.
Disagree.

Those guys are all top 6 players. Sure, I would prefer the upper echelon of that list, Kopitar, Rantanen, Carter, Schiefele, Nylander, etc.

But, if you add any of those players when they were in their prime to our current top 6, it fills a massive gap.

Suzuki, Dach, Caufield and Slaf, are all fine young top 6 players, with their peaks ahead of them.

We are coming along just fine IMHO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WeThreeKings
Not sure what it really means but they mentioned last night how Montreal and Dallas lead the league in number of 1 goal games and so I took a look at how that's been trending the last couple of years.

Games decided by 1 goal
21-22: 27 games, 8 wins, 8 losses, 11 OTL
22-23: 31 games, 17 wins, 8 losses, 6 OTL
23-24: 36 games, 16 wins, 10 losses, 10 OTL

Games decided by 2 goals
21-22: 12 games, 3 wins, 9 losses
22-23: 16 games, 4 wins, 12 losses
23-24: 7 games, 5 wins, 2 losses

Games decided by 3+ goals
21-22: 43 games, 11 wins, 32 losses
22-23: 35 games, 10 wins, 25 losses
23-24: 19 games, 3 wins, 16 losses


So we've been steadily increasing the number of 1 goal games which sounds like a good sign during a rebuild. We've had a surprisingly good record in those 1 goal games throughout our entire rebuild. Notably in 21-22 we were 1-5-7 with Ducharme and 7-3-4 with MSL so this seems very much a case of MSL motivating our guys to always fight.

In terms of 2 goal games we've seemingly turned it around this season but for 3+ goal games it's a bit mixed. On the one hand we've been cutting our losses down which is obviously a good sign, but on the other hand this season we've seemed to have lost the ability to win games by 3+ goals.

From the subjective eye test I do notice that we are quite often blowing leads and letting our opponents back into games we shouldn't. This leads to both to less 3 goal wins, but also more 1 goal games in general, and our terrible play when opponent's pull their goalie is probably a big contributor.
 
Not sure what it really means but they mentioned last night how Montreal and Dallas lead the league in number of 1 goal games and so I took a look at how that's been trending the last couple of years.

Games decided by 1 goal
21-22: 27 games, 8 wins, 8 losses, 11 OTL
22-23: 31 games, 17 wins, 8 losses, 6 OTL
23-24: 36 games, 16 wins, 10 losses, 10 OTL

Games decided by 2 goals
21-22: 12 games, 3 wins, 9 losses
22-23: 16 games, 4 wins, 12 losses
23-24: 7 games, 5 wins, 2 losses

Games decided by 3+ goals
21-22: 43 games, 11 wins, 32 losses
22-23: 35 games, 10 wins, 25 losses
23-24: 19 games, 3 wins, 16 losses


So we've been steadily increasing the number of 1 goal games which sounds like a good sign during a rebuild. We've had a surprisingly good record in those 1 goal games throughout our entire rebuild. Notably in 21-22 we were 1-5-7 with Ducharme and 7-3-4 with MSL so this seems very much a case of MSL motivating our guys to always fight.

In terms of 2 goal games we've seemingly turned it around this season but for 3+ goal games it's a bit mixed. On the one hand we've been cutting our losses down which is obviously a good sign, but on the other hand this season we've seemed to have lost the ability to win games by 3+ goals.

From the subjective eye test I do notice that we are quite often blowing leads and letting our opponents back into games we shouldn't. This leads to both to less 3 goal wins, but also more 1 goal games in general, and our terrible play when opponent's pull their goalie is probably a big contributor.
The amount of 1 goal games we played is : nb of games played - nb of games Allen started

:sarcasm:
 
  • Haha
Reactions: DiglettDangles
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.
They're not retooling without signing UFAs and trading for vets. You have the wrong definition.

Retooling is what Gainey did when he let Koivu go, and replaced his core with Gomez, Gionta, etc...
 
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.

If what Chicago and San Jose are doing is the only definition of a rebuild, then the only teams to have ever rebuilt in the cap-era are Edmonton, Buffalo, Chicago (and recently, not in the Kane/Toews rebuild) and San Jose. And BTW, the "rebuild" part of Edmonton's rebuild happened before they got McDavid.

There's a difference between a normal rebuild and a scorched earth tear-down rebuild.
 
Last edited:
This makes no sense...they finished last over 2 years ago, that's how they ended up with Slafkovsky.

What you've seen here since then is slow, but incremental progress...if it translates into the Habs picking 10th as a result, then that's not a bad thing.

It's a sign that things are progressing.

You know what's a sign that your tanking stinks?

When you keep picking in the bottom 3-5.

They don't scout draft slots, they scout players...there's absolutely no reason to not be able to select an impact player in the top 10-15 of a draft. Happens all the time.

They're not retooling without signing UFAs and trading for vets. You have the wrong definition.

Retooling is what Gainey did when he let Koivu go, and replaced his core with Gomez, Gionta, etc...
It is a retool.

Why would Hughes trade 1st rounders for Dach and Newhook? Players who are further along in their development? He wants to speed up the process. By acquiring those assets, you are DECREASING your odds for Bedard/Celebrini. This not what rebuilding teams do. I am OK with the trades but let’s call it as it is, a retool.
What Gainey did was a different kind of retool. Hughes is just being smarter in his approach.

Part of the reason why Ottawa has not had success and are in a forever rebuild is that they have had 1 top 3 pick. Most of the time they stuck between that 7-10th position. It absolutely is no man land for a bad team that needs higher picks.

What exactly is a sign we are progressing when if not for the gimmick OT/SO (not real regular hockey situations), we would be 3rd last behind Chicago and San Jose?
 
  • Like
Reactions: habsfan891
It is a retool.

Why would Hughes trade 1st rounders for Dach and Newhook? Players who are further along in their development? He wants to speed up the process. By acquiring those assets, you are DECREASING your odds for Bedard/Celebrini. This not what rebuilding teams do.
What Gainey did was a different kind of retool. Hughes is just being smarter in his approach.

Part of the reason why Ottawa has not had success and are in a forever rebuild is that they have had 1 top 3 pick. Most of the time they stuck between that 7-10th position. It absolutely is no man land for a bad team that needs higher picks.

What exactly is a sign we are progressing when if not for the gimmick OT/SO (not real regular hockey situations), we would be 3rd last behind Chicago and San Jose?

Your argument that Montreal is retooling because they traded Romanov to get Dach (who is younger) and traded a late 1st for Newhook (which is the kind of move almost every rebuilding team has done, including scorched earth examples). And that those assets decrease Montreal's odds in getting Bedard/Celebrini (very marginally) despite the fact that they aren't progressing and, if not for the gimmick OT/SO (not real regular hockey situations), we would be 3rd last behind Chicago and San Jose? You've literally refuted half your argument in the same post.

And scorched earth rebuilds are usually as successful as other rebuilds. It feels like you're more bothered about Montreal not getting luck last draft lottery and are assuming they won't get lucky or draft well this lottery.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 417 and Shutdown
As long as Molson is there, i hope people realize there will be no rebuild. What we are doing is a retool. 7th overall is almost this no man land we love. We have the same 2 best players as 3 years ago.
Chicago and San Jose are doing a proper rebuild, not us.
The Sharks are doing a proper rebuild?

2019-2020: Finished bottom 3 but pick went to the Sens because of the Karlsson trade
2020-2021: Finished 7th last, drafted William Eklund who's been below average so far
2021-2022: Finished 11th last but traded back all the way to 27th just to get a couple 2nds
2022-2023: Finished 4th last and missed out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson and got Smith

The Habs in the same span got Guhle, Mailloux, Slaf, and Reinbacher. I hope we steer clear of whatever the f*** the Sharks are doing.
 
The Sharks are doing a proper rebuild?

2019-2020: Finished bottom 3 but pick went to the Sens because of the Karlsson trade
2020-2021: Finished 7th last, drafted William Eklund who's been below average so far
2021-2022: Finished 11th last but traded back all the way to 27th just to get a couple 2nds
2022-2023: Finished 4th last and missed out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson and got Smith

The Habs in the same span got Guhle, Mailloux, Slaf, and Reinbacher. I hope we steer clear of whatever the f*** the Sharks are doing.

They also made the Cup finals.

I'm so tired of these expectations of linear progression. The Devils drafted 1st OA in 2017 and 2019 and made the playoffs in 2018. Some people have decided Montreal is definitely finished drafting top 3/top 5/top whatever and are making it everybody else's problem.
 
They also made the Cup finals.

I'm so tired of these expectations of linear progression. The Devils drafted 1st OA in 2017 and 2019 and made the playoffs in 2018. Some people have decided Montreal is definitely finished drafting top 3/top 5/top whatever and are making it everybody else's problem.
I was strictly talking about 1st rounders but yes, also our prospect pool is vastly better too. I would not swap positions with them at all. Imagine the outrage if we traded a top 5 pick and Josh Norris for Erik Karlsson, missed out on the top 4 by not tanking hard enough so have to settle for Eklund, not tanking hard enough to get a top 10 pick and trading back to the end of the 1st round just to get a couple 2nds, and then still missing out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson. It would be a nightmare here.
 
Your argument that Montreal is retooling because they traded Romanov to get Dach (who is younger) and traded a late 1st for Newhook (which is the kind of move almost every rebuilding team has done, including scorched earth examples). And that those assets decrease Montreal's odds in getting Bedard/Celebrini (very marginally) despite the fact that they aren't progressing and, if not for the gimmick OT/SO (not real regular hockey situations), we would be 3rd last behind Chicago and San Jose? You've literally refuted half your argument in the same post.

And scorched earth rebuilds are usually as successful as other rebuilds. It feels like you're more bothered about Montreal not getting luck last draft lottery and are assuming they won't get lucky or draft well this lottery.
Dach has barely played any games not sure how he decrease our chance to get Bedard/Celebrini. Same for Newhook he has not been a difference maker at all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Mountain
Your argument that Montreal is retooling because they traded Romanov to get Dach (who is younger) and traded a late 1st for Newhook (which is the kind of move almost every rebuilding team has done, including scorched earth examples). And that those assets decrease Montreal's odds in getting Bedard/Celebrini (very marginally) despite the fact that they aren't progressing and, if not for the gimmick OT/SO (not real regular hockey situations), we would be 3rd last behind Chicago and San Jose? You've literally refuted half your argument in the same post.

And scorched earth rebuilds are usually as successful as other rebuilds. It feels like you're more bothered about Montreal not getting luck last draft lottery and are assuming they won't get lucky or draft well this lottery.

A little bit of lottery luck would go a long way yes. It would change the whole dynamic of the team. We need gamebreakers so 7-8th overall picks won't do. I still don't trust the scouting staff to make the correct selection. At least not until they have a proven track record of a few players.

The Sharks are doing a proper rebuild?

2019-2020: Finished bottom 3 but pick went to the Sens because of the Karlsson trade
2020-2021: Finished 7th last, drafted William Eklund who's been below average so far
2021-2022: Finished 11th last but traded back all the way to 27th just to get a couple 2nds
2022-2023: Finished 4th last and missed out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson and got Smith

The Habs in the same span got Guhle, Mailloux, Slaf, and Reinbacher. I hope we steer clear of whatever the f*** the Sharks are doing.
2 of the 4 players you named are not even in the NHL. Smith is a better prospect than both Mailloux and Reinbacher as we speak.
SJ got a new GM last year I believe so I wouldn't judge previous years just as I wouldn't judge pre Hughes years.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad