Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[phillipmike]

Fresh Predictions for Top 2021-22 MLB Free Agents with Offseason Approaching

9. Kevin Gausman, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
2021 Stats: 31 G, 31 GS, 179.0 IP, 141 H (19 HR), 211 K, 49 BB, 2.92 ERA, 140 ERA+, 4.6 rWAR

2022 Age: 31

Unlike Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman wasn't already proven as an All-Star before 2021. And though he did suit up for the National League squad in July, he then fell into a slump in which he's posted a 4.99 ERA over 12 starts.

Still, there's little question that Gausman has raised his profile since he joined the San Francisco Giants.

He was an overlooked gem in posting a 3.62 ERA with 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings last season, so what he's done in 2021 is basically a case of more of the same. The catch is that he only has two viable pitches in his four-seamer and splitter, but both are among the game's most effective offerings.

By also accepting a qualifying offer last winter, Gausman will be in the same boat as Stroman in that he'll be exempt from another and, in turn, from being tied to draft-pick compensation. And in spite of the latter's reliability advantage, Gausman's ability to miss bats could make his market livelier.

There ought to be nothing stopping the Giants from re-signing Gausman, but it's also easy to see the Toronto Blue Jays circling back around on him after missing out last winter. Plus, he should be cheaper than a certain left-hander who's likely to win the American League Cy Young Award.

Prediction: Blue Jays for 4 years, $100 million

They have Semien going to the Giants for $125M over 5 years and Ray going for $135M over 5 years to the Angels.

All things considered, this wouldn’t be a bad outcome. Don’t have to give a 5th year to Gausman. And if the collective agreement stays intact, the Jays recoup 2 compensatory picks for losing Ray and Semien. Could keep Matz around and/or go after Syndergaard and Baez on a 1 year deal.

Also the contract for number 1 on this list is ridiculous.

 

[TopChedder]

Fresh Predictions for Top 2021-22 MLB Free Agents with Offseason Approaching



They have Semien going to the Giants for $125M over 5 years and Ray going for $135M over 5 years to the Angels.

All things considered, this wouldn’t be a bad outcome. Don’t have to give a 5th year to Gausman. And if the collective agreement stays intact, the Jays recoup 2 compensatory picks for losing Ray and Semien. Could keep Matz around and/or go after Syndergaard and Baez on a 1 year deal.

Also the contract for number 1 on this list is ridiculous.

Is nobody insulted a little that this article basically paints the Jays as a small market that can't afford to keep stars?

Like we have the 4th largest media market in North America and second wealthiest owner outside Cohen in NY, but they say we can't afford Ray or Semien lol

 

[Canada4Gold]

Fresh Predictions for Top 2021-22 MLB Free Agents with Offseason Approaching



They have Semien going to the Giants for $125M over 5 years and Ray going for $135M over 5 years to the Angels.

All things considered, this wouldn’t be a bad outcome. Don’t have to give a 5th year to Gausman. And if the collective agreement stays intact, the Jays recoup 2 compensatory picks for losing Ray and Semien. Could keep Matz around and/or go after Syndergaard and Baez on a 1 year deal.

Also the contract for number 1 on this list is ridiculous.

Bryant's prediction is the one that caught my eye. The guy has put up 11.1 fWAR over the last 4 seasons combined but you have him getting 35.7 million for 7 years? Sure thing. He's obviously a good player. But he's clearly not 2nd highest per year salary in baseball history over 7 years kind of good.

Some of them are completely reasonable, and then they go off the deep end.

 

[Bjindaho]

No offense, but it would be moronic to downgrade Ray to Gausman over 2M.

Remove Yamaguchi and Roark and you have 15M. Add that to Ray's 8 and you have 23 to spend on Ray BEFORE adding payroll.

Semien made 19. Signing them for 52M combined per year would only add 10M to payroll.

(Note: I didn't mention the Yates money because it needs to be reinvested imo in quality set up guys)

 

[Eyedea]

Bryant's prediction is the one that caught my eye. The guy has put up 11.1 fWAR over the last 4 seasons combined but you have him getting 35.7 million for 7 years? Sure thing. He's obviously a good player. But he's clearly not 2nd highest per year salary in baseball history over 7 years kind of good.

Some of them are completely reasonable, and then they go off the deep end.

Yeah. Even though it's buyer beware on Story (Coors effect) I'd think he'd be closer to that 250m contract than Bryant.

The Correa one doesn't shock me aside from them predicting it to come from the Marlins.

 

[Cor]

There is pretty much 0 reason Semien shouldn't be back. Based on what he's said, the season he had - we are able to give him the money as well. There is the concern of him wanting to play SS, but if he gets his bag, doesn't matter much anyway.

Robbie Ray seemed less committed to suggesting he's open to coming back. However, I am of the thought process, that if you find success somewhere, with a pitching coach, that you should only leave if it's for good reason. And again, given we have the team, the pitching coaching, the facilities, and the ability to offer money - it's hard to imagine why he'd leave.

Obviously both could have personal reasons to not coming back - which is the only reason why i'd imagine either would leave - unless this management teams doesn't give them a fair offer

 

[Bjindaho]

The money makes little sense.

Stroman and Gausman can't get QO so they should be higher. Sherzer is a joke (he's at least 5M too high per year imo).

If Ray wants 27, he doesn't ever hit FA. Same with Marcus at 25. It might take until the World Series, but we are making offers to both and won't lose by pennies on the dollar.

The Marlins aren't paying anyone 34M per year, and if a QO drops Semien to 25, inferior SS aren't making more with a qo attached.

Bryant isn't worth 25M. He has half a season of being close to Vladdy's impact surrounded by huge stretches of not good.

 

[Bjindaho]

The money makes little sense.

Stroman and Gausman can't get QO so they should be higher. Sherzer is a joke (he's at least 5M too high per year imo).

If Ray wants 27, he doesn't ever hit FA. Same with Marcus at 25. It might take until the World Series, but we are making offers to both and won't lose by pennies on the dollar.

The Marlins aren't paying anyone 34M per year, and if a QO drops Semien to 25, inferior SS aren't making more with a qo attached.

Bryant isn't worth 25M. He has half a season of being close to Vladdy's impact surrounded by huge stretches of not good.

Just expanding, he's the 10th most valuable 3B over the last 3.

But his D is getting worse (likely candidate for 1B during this contract).

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Kurtz]

If the Angels steal Ray from us, I'm stealing Raisel Iglesias from the Angels.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins Full Year End Press Conference

October 6, 2021

SPORTSNET

GM Ross Atkins takes questions from the media after the Blue Jays season came to an end on the last day of the season.

 

[Bjindaho]

Depending on what Cleveland thinks of Espinal's bat, his big year could suddenly make him a candidate to be the guy they ask for.

Thing is, if he's a 115wRC+ plus defending SS, he's not far off value-wise.

 

[Bjindaho]

If we moved Grichuk, I would hope that the money went towards Cruz.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Maestro84]

If we moved Grichuk, I would hope that the money went towards Cruz.

We need a lefty bat in the lineup in the DH spot, also Cruz is gonna be like 500 years old next year

 

[phillipmike]

More notes from Shi Davidi's appearance:

-Expiration of the CBA will impact how the market goes

-The goal for the team is to figure out how to approach the gap between them and the Rays

-Attack the bullpen, bolster 2/5 of the rotation

-Jays were interested in Ramirez at the deadline

-Shi doesn't think the Tigers engaged much on Grossman

-They'll have options to get left handed, maybe they'll opt for the left handness.

-Jays preference is to have Biggio as a super utility role

-Still thinking about what Nate Pearson is regarding starting

-Insulate probable dips with more additions

-Issue is more of a balance (LHB) than approach to hitting (strikeout rate went down)

-Shi thinks they need to look at an upgrade at 3B, mentions that position for balance (LHB)

-"Efficient as the Rays with the depth of the Dodgers"

-Shi think there's an opportunity to move Grichuk, though it'll be in a bad salary type trade (i.e. adding a backend starter or a leverage reliever, creatively re-allocating money)

-Shi also thinks if they're determined to diversify their handenss, maybe Gurriel or Teoscar gets moved area of surplus (this is pure speculation in terms of subtracting from the big league roster and getting better)

-Maybe Kirk becomes a trade chip with Jansen as the starter. He has the most trade value vs Jansen.

-Shi wonders if Moreno's true position is at catcher, and they won't have 4 catchers on the 40 man again.

-If the Jays think Moreno's the real deal maybe it's the time to cash in on Kirk. Wouldn't shock Shi if Kirk/McGuire were traded.

-Shi mentions possibly bringing in a veteran catcher behind Jansen if Kirk's traded

-Pete Walker's been given a contract extension

-Charlie likely gets an extension before next season

-Shi thinks it's a possibility that one of Gurriel/Teoscar get traded. He also says that the Jays have explored moving Gurriel the past few offseasons. Gurriel might be more attractive because he's cheap for 2 more seasons and arbitration. Both would be complicated deals, if you're going to transform yourself, that's an area where it's going to occur

It’s funny how pretty much everything Shi says posters on here have brought up;

-Going after Seager
-Getting left handed bats
-Moving Grichuk in an exchange of bad contracts
-Trading Gurriel or Teo for other needs
-Kirk being a trade chip because he has the most value and Moreno is coming.
-Kirk and McGuire being moved
-Gurriel being shopped over the last 2 years

 

[Maestro84]

Fresh Predictions for Top 2021-22 MLB Free Agents with Offseason Approaching



They have Semien going to the Giants for $125M over 5 years and Ray going for $135M over 5 years to the Angels.

All things considered, this wouldn’t be a bad outcome. Don’t have to give a 5th year to Gausman. And if the collective agreement stays intact, the Jays recoup 2 compensatory picks for losing Ray and Semien. Could keep Matz around and/or go after Syndergaard and Baez on a 1 year deal.

Also the contract for number 1 on this list is ridiculous.

I know the market works in weird ways but it would be dumb for Ray and Gausman to leave their respective teams after they helped them finally breakout

 

[phillipmike]

Not ideal, but a way to get more lefties in the lineup;

-Gurriel+ for Jose Ramirez to play 2B
-Sign Kyle Seager for 3B
-Biggio to play LF and utility
-Schwarber to play LF and DH

Springer - CF
Ramirez - 2B
Guerrero - 1B
Bichette - SS
Hernandez - RF
Biggio/Schwarber - LF
Seager - 3B
Kirk/Schwarber - DH
Jansen - C

Bench: Kirk, Biggio, Espinal, Grichuk

 

[trellaine201]

I would be very hesitant on any long term contract to anyone that had a career year and his 30 and over. Buyer beware. I would rather trade for someone younger than have these on the books long term.

 

[Puckstuff]

I’m hopeful they will spend 50-60 million for 2-3 free agents and they should have enough trade chips for 2 or more cost effective impact players. Then it will be about striking on some buy-low pitching in the 1-5 million dollar range. It will probably be distributed to 20 % position players (1 or 2 players) 2 starters and 4 + bullpen guys...Looking at 80 % of time and resources going into pitching.

Wish list

Position players:
1 of Marte, Ramirez, Semien.

Bullpen:
Clase, Barlow, Graveman, Bender, Bleier interest me.


Starters:
1 of Ray, Castillo, Marquez, Rodon, Gausman

The rest will probably be cost controlled players.

 

[Puckstuff]

Not ideal, but a way to get more lefties in the lineup;

-Gurriel+ for Jose Ramirez to play 2B
-Sign Kyle Seager for 3B
-Biggio to play LF and utility
-Schwarber to play LF and DH

Springer - CF
Ramirez - 2B
Guerrero - 1B
Bichette - SS
Hernandez - RF
Biggio/Schwarber - LF
Seager - 3B
Kirk/Schwarber - DH
Jansen - C

Bench: Kirk, Biggio, Espinal, Grichuk

If we’re trading for J-Ram in this scenario why not just put Ramirez at 3B where he’s elite and put Biggio at 2B (the only position he has good value, is also a lefty and costs virtually nothing). Seager isn’t that much better then Biggio to warrant spending money on him assuming Biggio at 2B and Seager at 3B, their value would be equal or slightly in favour of Biggio. Plus we have Epsinal who’s probably equal to Seager as well. Also Biggio doesn’t have an arm for outfield imo and Schwarber’s defence sucks.

 

[phillipmike]

If we’re trading for J-Ram in this scenario why not just put Ramirez at 3B where he’s elite and put Biggio at 2B (the only position he has good value, is also a lefty and costs virtually nothing). Seager isn’t that much better then Biggio to warrant spending money on him assuming Biggio at 2B and Seager at 3B, their value would be equal or slightly in favour of Biggio. Plus we have Epsinal who’s probably equal to Seager as well. Also Biggio doesn’t have an arm for outfield imo and Schwarber’s defence sucks.

I agree. Just posting a scenario to get as many lefty bats in the lineup and on the bench as possible. Shi had 3-4 points emphasis the Jays wanting lefty bats like the Rays and Dodgers. Just adding a player Ramirez only give you one lefty bat you didn’t have.

But I would be very careful relying on Espinal. I like him a lot as a utility guy but he isn’t a starting 3B for me. He just had his rookie season as a 26 year old with .353 BABIP. His soft contact is higher than league average and medium and hard contact is lower than league average. No power to speak of as well. That is a bad profile to rely on at 3B. It’s ok one for a platoon 2B and defense first infielder. But the Jays need a legit 3B.

In less than 2 months he will be 27; older than guys like McGuire, Biggio, and Jansen.

 

[Maestro84]

I agree. Just posting a scenario to get as many lefty bats in the lineup and on the bench as possible. Shi had 3-4 points emphasis the Jays wanting lefty bats like the Rays and Dodgers. Just adding a player Ramirez only give you one lefty bat you didn’t have.

I'd imagine they're gonna look for a lefty bat to fill in the DH role regardless of what they do elsewhere

 

[phillipmike]

I'd imagine they're gonna look for a lefty bat to fill in the DH role regardless of what they do elsewhere

I would think that’s the easy spot too. But it still would be wise to potentially keep it open to rotate the DH and you need to keep Springer off his feet. He isn’t playing 100+ games on CF.

 

[Dr.Funk]

I'd imagine they're gonna look for a lefty bat to fill in the DH role regardless of what they do elsewhere

I'll be very surprised if the DH spot isn't kept as a rotation spot.