Nobody thought Bedard was going to be the next Mcdavid
False
His rookie season was more impressive than Mcdavid's considering the talent they played with.
McDavid was third in the NHL in points per game. Their rookie seasons weren't remotely comparable
Nobody would be surprised if he scores 100+ points next year,
That would surprise me. I think 80-90 would be really good progression for him. I thought he'd be there this year.
and he still looks like the best player in his draft class by far.
Not so sure about that anymore. He's 6th among 2023 draft picks in 5v5 p/60 on the season, and 5th in total pts/gp in the 2025 calendar year, despite playing way more minutes than everyone else. And he no longer projects to be a center in the NHL.
Leo Carlsson in particular has really taken off,. he'd be #1 in my redraft. His last 2 months have been more productive than anything we've seen from Bedard, while playing significantly better two way hockey.
He has 11g 24p +14 in 22gp since Feb 1st, 5 points clear of the ducks' 2nd leading scorer in that span. While only playing 16 minutes a night.
Some of the other top 2023 draftees have also had really strong recent stretches:
- Michkov has also been excellent in that span, with 10g 22p in 22gp. He's been just as productive as Bedard this year (despite significantly less ice time) while being much stronger on pucks.
- Will Smith has 22 points in his last 25 games, leading the sharks in scoring in that span.
- Fantilii has 15 goals 29 points in his last 34 games, almost all at ES.
All 4 of those guys are trending up, showing a lot more maturity in their games. Bedard's talent level is undeniable, but he still makes a lot of junior hockey plays and is way too loose with the puck.
He's going to continue to struggle to produce if he keeps giving away possession so easily - hard to score when the other team has the puck. I really believe the Hawks' refusal to hold him accountable for his reckless play is stunting his development.
There's definitely still an argument for taking Bedard 1st, but it relies more on what he did in junior and in his rookie season than how he's played this year. His ceiling is still really high, but he feels like a high risk pick right... he's just been awful since the four nations.
Regardless, there's no reasonable argument to suggest he's
far and away ahead of his peers at this point.
I'd probably do something like the below in a redraft:
1. Carlsson
2. Michkov
3. Bedard
4. Smith
5. Fantilli
Carlsson at #1 is pretty clear for me, and I think Michkov is probably 2, but I could see 3-5 going a number of different ways.
Kucherov isn't an elite skater... I'd say elite IQ is even more important, than elite skating. The problem is Bedard's IQ isn't elite. Very good, but not elite. Michkov's though...
Kucherov's skating is pretty underrated. Not elite, but he's faster and more powerful than people think.
Bedard's processing speed is certainly elite, but his decision making has been questionable. The former can't really be taught, but the latter can, which is why I'm still somewhat optimistic.
