The Management Thread | We live Page to Page here

[logan5]

... now just imagine that OELs poor results are more due to Coyotes and off ice situations the past four years roughly. If, and it is a big if, that is the case, 7.2 for the next four/five years *might* look like a steal.

We did get rid of 12 million in bad salary, so even if OEL plays plays like a 5.5 million dollar defenseman, we got a fair deal.

 

[strattonius]

Will you be equally shocked if he struggles in an expanded role?

Are you trying to decipher some sort of hidden bias I may have?

I would be shocked if OEL flat out sucks for us this year, yes. What we deem as 'struggle' may differ.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

here are the worst contract according to hf(poll took place before buyout period)

NHL's Worst Contracts (Top 10): #10?

Not that hfboards should be source but OEL was 6th worst before retention a million off makes a difference.

 

[deckercky]

If OEL plays as a solid top 4 defender, I'll be happy. I don't expect top pairing.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Are you trying to decipher some sort of hidden bias I may have?

I would be shocked if OEL flat out sucks for us this year, yes. What we deem as 'struggle' may differ.

No, I wasn't certain from your comments about OEL being overshadowed how you saw OEL. If he was a star player who was relegated by an even greater star, or if he was someone who had regressed slightly.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

If OEL plays as a solid top 4 defender, I'll be happy. I don't expect top pairing.

Thats the $7.2M question..He's not #1...but what will he be as a Canuck?
Will he rebound from being on a team where he had mentally checked out on.. ( at odds with the coach, and simultaneously burdened with being the captain of a team that was trying to move him out )..?

Or have his skills deteriorated to the point where we are basically receiving a broken player?

 

[Nucker101]

Not that hfboards should be source but OEL was 6th worst before retention a million off makes a difference.

Fair, but how much further does he fall down that list? Can’t be by too much, has to be less than 10 spots

 

[m9]

If OEL plays as a solid top 4 defender, I'll be happy. I don't expect top pairing.

Why? He is being paid like a #1 guy. Getting a top four guy for 7.26 million is an awful ROI.

 

[MS]

He was getting outplayed by a phenom named Jakob Chychrun.

Hes not a #3 d-man. He was playing on a 2nd unit PP and 2nd pairing because he plays the same side as Chychrun.

If there is a d-man on our roster that gets move EV TOI I would be shocked.

OEL was still getting #1 PP minutes.

They were asking him to play on a mid-leverage 2nd pairing as their #3 defender and he was destroyed. Absolutely terrible.

Now, after failing as a #3 defender there he’s being asked to come here as a #1 defender on a worse blueline in a higher-pressure market. It is unlikely to go well.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

He was getting outplayed by a phenom named Jakob Chychrun.

Hes not a #3 d-man. He was playing on a 2nd unit PP and 2nd pairing because he plays the same side as Chychrun.

If there is a d-man on our roster that gets move EV TOI I would be shocked.

People quoting ice time as evidence of the fact that a player is a top pair dman drives me insane. On any team, there are a set amount of minutes that need to be played. The fact that someone is playing them is not epirical evidence of them being good, it’s evidence of a lack of better options. When Gudbranson was here, he got top 4 minutes while being purely decorative on the ice. Does that mean he’s a top 4 dman? No, it does not

 

[Melvin]

Are you trying to decipher some sort of hidden bias I may have?

I would be shocked if OEL flat out sucks for us this year, yes. What we deem as 'struggle' may differ.

The point is that the argument that "OEL's poor results are due to him being asked to do too much in Arizona" has not been true for at least 2 years, ever since Chychrun clearly passed him. Last year his ice time was noticeably cut and he was not being asked to be a star #1 d-man anymore, and he still stunk. So the argument that having too big of a role was the cause of his problems is completely busted, and like MS said (and you seem to agree,) he is, if anything, going to be asked to play a much bigger role again in Vancouver.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

OEL was still getting #1 PP minutes.

They were asking him to play on a mid-leverage 2nd pairing as their #3 defender and he was destroyed. Absolutely terrible.

Now, after failing as a #3 defender there he’s being asked to come here as a #1 defender on a worse blueline in a higher-pressure market. It is unlikely to go well.

It must be frustrating repeatedly having to explain the specifics of the on ice situation he is coming from actually being better for him than the one he’s coming to, only to essentially be brushed aside with “but coyotes!”

 

[Hodgy]

OEL was still getting #1 PP minutes.

They were asking him to play on a mid-leverage 2nd pairing as their #3 defender and he was destroyed. Absolutely terrible.

Now, after failing as a #3 defender there he’s being asked to come here as a #1 defender on a worse blueline in a higher-pressure market. It is unlikely to go well.

I don’t think that’s entirely accurate. I believe OEL was replaced on the number one power play during the season, and Chychurn’s higher average power play time on ice backs this up. Would be interesting how OEL produced after he was regulated to the second powerplay .

 

[deckercky]

Why? He is being paid like a #1 guy. Getting a top four guy for 7.26 million is an awful ROI.

If the Canucks were paying him like a #1d, they'd be paying him $2m more.

I also recognize the cap dumps he was traded for - $12m savings year 1 is the equivalent of $2m per year over 6 years.

I expect him to contribute like a $5.25m defenceman, which is squarely in the top 4 range.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

I don’t think that’s entirely accurate. I believe OEL was replaced on the number one power play during the season, and Chychurn’s higher average power play time on ice backs this up. Would be interesting how OEL produced after he was regulated to the second powerplay .

Could Phoenix have been using two d on the powerplay? Had all 31 teams(as of last season) moved on from that for good?

 

[m9]

If the Canucks were paying him like a #1d, they'd be paying him $2m more.

I also recognize the cap dumps he was traded for - $12m savings year 1 is the equivalent of $2m per year over 6 years.

I expect him to contribute like a $5.25m defenceman, which is squarely in the top 4 range.

7.26 is the 18th highest cap hit in the league. Definitely paying him like a #1.

 

[MS]

I don’t think that’s entirely accurate. I believe OEL was replaced on the number one power play during the season, and Chychurn’s higher average power play time on ice backs this up. Would be interesting how OEL produced after he was regulated to the second powerplay .

Hmmm … it looks like they had overall pretty equal usage when both were in the lineup but Chychrun’s usage (logically) went up when OEL was injured.

13 of OEL’s 14 PP points involved Kessel/Garland/Keller who are their top forwards and PP guys so looks like most of his production was on the top unit.

Regardless, he was definitely their #3 guy at ES.

 

[deckercky]

7.26 is the 18th highest cap hit in the league. Definitely paying him like a #1.

That's not really how it works. How much would a UFA #1d be paid if signed today? $9-9.5m is the baseline.

That also ignores the cap dumps, which are unprecedented in a trade.

 

[Hit the post]

That's not really how it works. How much would a UFA #1d be paid if signed today? $9-9.5m is the baseline.

That also ignores the cap dumps, which are unprecedented in a trade.

Only one year left on those cap dumps.

 

[Melvin]

Hmmm … it looks like they had overall pretty equal usage when both were in the lineup but Chychrun’s usage (logically) went up when OEL was injured.

13 of OEL’s 14 PP points involved Kessel/Garland/Keller who are their top forwards and PP guys so looks like most of his production was on the top unit.

Regardless, he was definitely their #3 guy at ES.

Doesn't really look like they had a clear #1 and #2 but gave both units equal time Willie D style.

 

[Melvin]

That's not really how it works. How much would a UFA #1d be paid if signed today? $9-9.5m is the baseline.

That also ignores the cap dumps, which are unprecedented in a trade.

That is most definitely not how it works. Is Victor Hedman not a #1?

 

[m9]

That's not really how it works. How much would a UFA #1d be paid if signed today? $9-9.5m is the baseline.

That also ignores the cap dumps, which are unprecedented in a trade.

I think saying the 18th highest cap hit is being paid like a #1 is perfectly reasonable. It's not like he's the 31st or 32nd hit and it's a semantics thing.

So Conor Garland is worth a top ten pick, a 2nd, and a 7th? Do you not think those picks helped offset the salaries at all?

 

[MS]

It must be frustrating repeatedly having to explain the specifics of the on ice situation he is coming from actually being better for him than the one he’s coming to, only to essentially be brushed aside with “but coyotes!”

It's one of the most entirely wrong narratives I've ever seen and it seems to just be accepted as fact by 90% of the fanbase.

"OEL is a great player who was just struggling a bit because there was too much pressure trying to be the saviour #1 defender on such a terrible team. He'll bounce back here on a deeper team where he's just one of the guys!"

Literally everything there is wrong.

With Chychrun's breakout over the last 3 years, he was being asked to be a #3 defender for a team that has been better than us over the past several seasons. He was absolutely terrible and by his own admission has been on a 4-year downward spiral. And now he's coming here to a bigger market and a higher-pressure situation where the GM has labelled him the #1 defender and he *is* actually being asked to be the saviour on an absolutely horrific blueline.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

a team that has been better than us over the past several seasons.

This is a bit of an exaggeration, I think, unless you have a reason for saying this? I went through the standings comparing Arizona/Vancouver and they basically traded finishing over the other every year and were within 4 points of each other going back to 2014, where the Canucks had 50+ points over the Coyotes.

I think it's more accurate to say that OEL is going to a comparatively bad team and that the Canucks aren't some magical refuge brimming with talent and opportunities to put him in a position to succeed. He's going to be taking on an expanded role in a team that's performed in a similar manner.

EDIT: Sorry, I'm not trying to nitpick. I just know that certain elements will seize on that and try to invalidate everything else being said as a result.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

It's one of the most entirely wrong narratives I've ever seen and it seems to just be accepted as fact by 90% of the fanbase.

"OEL is a great player who was just struggling a bit because there was too much pressure trying to be the saviour #1 defender on such a terrible team. He'll bounce back here on a deeper team where he's just one of the guys!"

Literally everything there is wrong.

With Chychrun's breakout over the last 3 years, he was being asked to be a #3 defender for a team that has been better than us over the past several seasons. He was absolutely terrible and by his own admission has been on a 4-year downward spiral. And now he's coming here to a bigger market and a higher-pressure situation where the GM has labelled him the #1 defender and he *is* actually being asked to be the saviour on an absolutely horrific blueline.

It's a real triumph of the Trumpian Faux News-style repetition that OEL's incoming narrative is being blindly accepted and propagated so much. All the numbers I've seen tell me that OEL is a declining player coming to an on-ice situation that's easily as bad (if not worse) as the one he left. I said at the time this is pretty much if Ehrhoff came back after scoring his massive payday from Buffalo after four years of going downhill with six years still left on his contract, and I stand by that. Some of the hypothetical pairings I've been seeing are complete lunacy. OEL - Poolman as your #1 pairing? Or OEL - Hamonic? Sorry, what decade is this? Benning's built a defense that contains a whole bunch of people who desperately need a stable partner...and nobody stable to fill that roll.

It's not as if losing Edler and Schmidt is some huge loss...it's that you're replacing them with empty air. That of course doesn't even touch the elephant in the room of what it says that both of these players wanted out.

I'm looking for Benning to be trading more high picks for dmen in about the first or second week of November when the backend is being crushed and it's obvious to even the most determined shills the team just doesn't have the horses to compete.