Blue Jays Discussion: The long, slow march of a winter off-season

[NeverGoingToWin]

Yankees make Gerrit Cole record-breaking contract offer, per report

 

[trellaine201]

Not bad $1M a start for 7 years. And that’s if he makes all starts. Yikes.

 

[supermann_98]

Not bad $1M a start for 7 years. And that’s if he makes all starts. Yikes.

Those 7 year contracts for starting pitchers rarely end well the last 2-3 years, even with good health

 

[phillipmike]

favourite or ideal fit?

 

[hockeywiz542]

Sources say the Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins and Tigers are among the teams with interest in Tsutsugo, the left-handed power hitter posted last month by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Tsutsugo, 28, has been compared to Kyle Schwarber as a hitter and defender. Tsutsugo primarily plays left field, but he has experience at first base. He's averaged about 33 home runs per season over the last five years with the BayStars.

Scouts question whether Tsutsugo has the range to be an average defensive left fielder in the Majors. However, one executive said Thursday that Tsutsugo’s powerful bat is enough to keep him in the lineup every day, although perhaps at different positions. By signing with an AL club, Tsutsugo would have the opportunity to move among left field, first base and designated hitter depending on matchups and defensive needs.

Tsutsugo is part of one of the all-time largest classes moving from NPB to MLB in a single offseason. Center fielder Shogo Akiyama is an international free agent, while second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi and right-hander Shun Yamaguchi have been posted.

In Tsutsugo’s case, the BayStars will receive a release fee equal to 20 percent of the first $25 million in Tsutsugo’s MLB guarantee, with the BayStars able to claim smaller percentages for values beyond that.

Tsutsugo played on United States soil as recently as the 2017 World Baseball Classic, when his 1.113 OPS was the highest on Team Japan.

The Blue Jays are perhaps the best fit for Tsutsugo, as first baseman/designated hitter Rowdy Tellez is the only returning left-handed hitter on Toronto’s roster to hit 20 or more home runs in 2019.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[trellaine201]

The Blue Jays are perhaps the best fit for Tsutsugo, as first baseman/designated hitter Rowdy Tellez is the only returning left-handed hitter on Toronto’s roster to hit 20 or more home runs in 2019.

Jon Morosi

id say he means best fit.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I’d be happy targeting position players to deepen the lineup. Build your strength up and hope you get some surprises on the pitching side.

no need to go crazy if the pitching market gets out of hand. There will be plenty of short term reclamation projects out there to take a chance on.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I’d be happy targeting position players to deepen the lineup. Build your strength up and hope you get some surprises on the pitching side.

no need to go crazy if the pitching market gets out of hand. There will be plenty of short term reclamation projects out there to take a chance on.

I like the idea of grabbing two of the lottery tickets (Gausman, Walker, Wood, Nelson, Moore, Smyly, in that order), one of the remaining mid tier (Ryu, Bumgarner) and one of the next tier (Keuchel, Porcello, Baily, Roark, Miley, Gio, Anderson). Pitching has to be a priority.

The position player market is where you can afford to be patient and opportunistic. I think we've seen the evolution of free agency, and there's enough precedent to know that there will be quality looking for homes as late as February. There's also a glut of supply, making it a buyers market. What's nice is there's many avenues to go with several options (Assuming the QO guys go elsewhere, Rendon, JD, Ozuna):

- Hernandez (2B, 2.1 Steamer WAR): Biggio moves to the Zobrist utility role
- Puig (RF, 1.9 Steamer WAR): Grichuk moves to CF or is traded
- Gardner (LF, 1.9 Steamer WAR): Gurriel Jr. moves to CF or is traded
- Castellanos (RF, 1.5 Steamer WAR): See Puig above
- Russell (SS\2B, 1.4 Steamer WAR): Utility IF, Drury is outrighted to Triple-A
- Calhon\Dickerson (OF, 1.4 Steamer WAR): DH\CO, Grichuk\Gurriel play some CF
- Kipnis (2B\OF, 1.3 Steamer WAR): Utility
- Smoak (1B, 1.3 Steamer WAR): returns on a one year deal
- Flores (IF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): utility platoon
- Schoop (IF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): utility platoon
- Avisail Garcia (OF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): See Puig
- Souza (OF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): See Calhon\Dickerson
- Castro (IF, 1.0 Steamer WAR): See Schoop

And that's just the guys projected for 1.0+ Steamer WAR.

 

[Discoverer]

I like the idea of grabbing two of the lottery tickets (Gausman, Walker, Wood, Nelson, Moore, Smyly, in that order), one of the remaining mid tier (Ryu, Bumgarner) and one of the next tier (Keuchel, Porcello, Baily, Roark, Miley, Gio, Anderson). Pitching has to be a priority.

The only scenario in which I can imagine them bringing in four pitchers of that quality is if they somehow manage to get a couple of the lottery ticket guys on minor-league deals or something. I imagine they want some of the "older" young guys like Thornton, Borucki, and Kay to get more experience at the major league level, and bringing in that many pitchers basically forces all of them to sit and wait for an injury or under-performance to open up a spot.

As an example: Ryu, Roark, Walker, Nelson, Shoemaker, Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, Kay

For me, that leaves nine guys deserving of a rotation spot as of now, with one of the best prospects in baseball (Pearson) leading a big group in AAA fighting for a chance. Not that I don't want to see good pitching added, but I think they need to see if some of the younger guys have anything more to offer.

 

[BlueForever75]

I like the idea of grabbing two of the lottery tickets (Gausman, Walker, Wood, Nelson, Moore, Smyly, in that order), one of the remaining mid tier (Ryu, Bumgarner) and one of the next tier (Keuchel, Porcello, Baily, Roark, Miley, Gio, Anderson). Pitching has to be a priority.

The position player market is where you can afford to be patient and opportunistic. I think we've seen the evolution of free agency, and there's enough precedent to know that there will be quality looking for homes as late as February. There's also a glut of supply, making it a buyers market. What's nice is there's many avenues to go with several options (Assuming the QO guys go elsewhere, Rendon, JD, Ozuna):

- Hernandez (2B, 2.1 Steamer WAR): Biggio moves to the Zobrist utility role
- Puig (RF, 1.9 Steamer WAR): Grichuk moves to CF or is traded
- Gardner (LF, 1.9 Steamer WAR): Gurriel Jr. moves to CF or is traded
- Castellanos (RF, 1.5 Steamer WAR): See Puig above
- Russell (SS\2B, 1.4 Steamer WAR): Utility IF, Drury is outrighted to Triple-A
- Calhon\Dickerson (OF, 1.4 Steamer WAR): DH\CO, Grichuk\Gurriel play some CF
- Kipnis (2B\OF, 1.3 Steamer WAR): Utility
- Smoak (1B, 1.3 Steamer WAR): returns on a one year deal
- Flores (IF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): utility platoon
- Schoop (IF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): utility platoon
- Avisail Garcia (OF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): See Puig
- Souza (OF, 1.2 Steamer WAR): See Calhon\Dickerson
- Castro (IF, 1.0 Steamer WAR): See Schoop

And that's just the guys projected for 1.0+ Steamer WAR.

I like your ideas for pitching, not sure if the Jays can capture all of what you said but that would be terrific if they did. It may be a tad extreme but we will see.

I personally like the idea of bringing in the Japanese 1B/DH/OF that everyone is talking about, and I like my idea of picking up Villar. Putting him at 2B in our lineup would be a huge upgrade. It allows the Jays to move Biggio to OF and be our utility player that ever team craves. Villar brings above average D, power, OBP and most of all speed. If the Jays somehow can capture another OF on top that would be fantastic but I would be willing to run without one if we can sign up Villar.

 

[Discoverer]

I like your ideas for pitching, not sure if the Jays can capture all of what you said but that would be terrific if they did. It may be a tad extreme but we will see.

I personally like the idea of bringing in the Japanese 1B/DH/OF that everyone is talking about, and I like my idea of picking up Villar. Putting him at 2B in our lineup would be a huge upgrade. It allows the Jays to move Biggio to OF and be our utility player that ever team craves. Villar brings above average D, power, OBP and most of all speed. If the Jays somehow can capture another OF on top that would be fantastic but I would be willing to run without one if we can sign up Villar.

I loved the idea of claiming him off waivers, but I assume the Marlins are actually planning on using him rather than flipping him elsewhere.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The only scenario in which I can imagine them bringing in four pitchers of that quality is if they somehow manage to get a couple of the lottery ticket guys on minor-league deals or something. I imagine they want some of the "older" young guys like Thornton, Borucki, and Kay to get more experience at the major league level, and bringing in that many pitchers basically forces all of them to sit and wait for an injury or under-performance to open up a spot.

As an example: Ryu, Roark, Walker, Nelson, Shoemaker, Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, Kay

For me, that leaves nine guys deserving of a rotation spot as of now, with one of the best prospects in baseball (Pearson) leading a big group in AAA fighting for a chance. Not that I don't want to see good pitching added, but I think they need to see if some of the younger guys have anything more to offer.

Interesting and good points. I think the important distinction is in the word deserving. To me, Trent is a reliever, chase Anderson is a swing man (unless he proves he can get RHH out), Shoemaker\Borucki may not be ready for opening day, Pearson and Kay are in Triple-A until mid-June.

All that said, if you were to get Ryu, I'd be fine with foregoing the signing from that next tier (in this case the Roark). And knowing how this front office is with execution, the likelihood of even 3 signings seems like a long shot.

I like your ideas for pitching, not sure if the Jays can capture all of what you said but that would be terrific if they did. It may be a tad extreme but we will see.

I personally like the idea of bringing in the Japanese 1B/DH/OF that everyone is talking about, and I like my idea of picking up Villar. Putting him at 2B in our lineup would be a huge upgrade. It allows the Jays to move Biggio to OF and be our utility player that ever team craves. Villar brings above average D, power, OBP and most of all speed. If the Jays somehow can capture another OF on top that would be fantastic but I would be willing to run without one if we can sign up Villar.

My only issue with the posting\signing of the Japanese 1B\DH, is that prioritizing at those positions is a poor strategy given the surplus of people at those positions.

 

[Discoverer]

Interesting and good points. I think the important distinction is in the word deserving. To me, Trent is a reliever, chase Anderson is a swing man (unless he proves he can get RHH out), Shoemaker\Borucki may not be ready for opening day, Pearson and Kay are in Triple-A until mid-June.

All that said, if you were to get Ryu, I'd be fine with foregoing the signing from that next tier (in this case the Roark). And knowing how this front office is with execution, the likelihood of even 3 signings seems like a long shot.

Given a 1.9 fWAR rookie season, I think Thornton deserves a chance at a second season in the rotation to see if he can settle in as a solid back-end starter or step it up a notch and become a 3-4 type. I don't disagree on the others.

My goal would be to add one good, proven starter, and one or two wild cards/reclamation types.

 

[zeke]

I still don't understand how the FO could have spent their first 4 years trading everything for "MLB-ready young pitching" and still be relentlessly targeting mediocre mlb SP as their highest priority now.

 

[phillipmike]

Hard-hitting utilityman Steve Pearce appears to be putting the wraps on his playing days. He tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he’s “unofficially retired” from baseball.

 

[phillipmike]

I still don't understand how the FO could have spent their first 4 years trading everything for "MLB-ready young pitching" and still be relentlessly targeting mediocre mlb SP as their highest priority now.

There is a lot you still dont understand.

AA did the exact same thing since he was the GM in 2010. And 5 years later he was still acquiring arms in 2015.

And even after 5 years of building he was acquiring most of the lineup. His entire infield came in the last calendar year in Martin, Colabello/Smoak, Travis, Tulo and Donaldson. Add in Saunders in LF, then when that didnt work he got Revere. Only Pillar, Bautista and EE were staples.

Teams are never a finished product. But i wouldnt expect you to know that with your blinders on.

 

[zeke]

There is a lot you still dont understand.

AA did the exact same thing since he was the GM in 2010. And 5 years later he was still acquiring arms in 2015.

And even after 5 years of building he was acquiring most of the lineup. His entire infield came in the last calendar year in Martin, Colabello/Smoak, Travis, Tulo and Donaldson. Add in Saunders in LF, then when that didnt work he got Revere. Only Pillar, Bautista and EE were staples.

Teams are never a finished product. But i wouldnt expect you to know that with your blinders on.

yep, i'm def the blind one when it comes to this FO.

 

[phillipmike]

yep, i'm def the blind one when it comes to this FO.

You definitely are.

 

[zeke]

You definitely are.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

As Discoverer noted earlier, you could very well have a fully homegrown\prospect promoted rotation by June. And a fairly talented, albeit inexperienced, one at that.

- Pearson, Kay, Borucki, Thornton, Waguespack, SRF, Zeuch, Hatch

I'm open to criticizing this front office, but the accruing of viable prospect arms is not the area where I would begin.

 

[zeke]

As Discoverer noted earlier, you could very well have a fully homegrown\prospect promoted rotation by June. And a fairly talented, albeit inexperienced, one at that.

- Pearson, Kay, Borucki, Thornton, Waguespack, SRF, Zeuch, Hatch

I'm open to criticizing this front office, but the accruing of viable prospect arms is not the area where I would begin.

So go with those guys as your pitching depth, and spend all your money on the single best arm you can find.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

So go with those guys as your pitching depth, and spend all your money on the single best arm you can find.

Sure, though said best arm would need to want to come to Toronto. And that also leads to concentration risk which is something you should avoid, if at all possible.

Question for you, what would your satisfaction level be if they traded Kay and Gurriel Jr. for Trevor Bauer and signed him to a 5y/$120M deal?

 

[zeke]

Sure, though said best arm would need to want to come to Toronto. And that also leads to concentration risk which is something you should avoid, if at all possible.

Question for you, what would your satisfaction level be if they traded Kay and Gurriel Jr. for Trevor Bauer and signed him to a 5y/$120M deal?

probably a positive. I imagine bauer would be better than them, and it's not like we are under any payroll stress. And hell, bauer is hardly even older than those "youngsters", either.