Blue Jays Discussion: The long, slow march of a winter off-season

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

probably a positive. I imagine bauer would be better than them, and it's not like we are under any payroll stress. And hell, bauer is hardly even older than those "youngsters", either.

Fair enough. I would be fine with a move like that as well. That option seems more realistic than a signing of Cole. And unless Colorado decides they're trading one of their two quality starters (Marquez\Gray), Bauer is the only other top-20 starter who is realistically\conceivably available.

I'm increasingly annoyed they missed on Wheeler (and to a lesser extent Gibson). There's no real pitching assets worth investing in available in next year's free agent class (outside of Bauer if he gets there), essentially leaving you with trade as the only avenue to fill out a pitching staff with what I believe will end up being one of the best offenses in baseball.

I get your statement of aim straight for the top, but Cole and Strasburg really aren't free agents; they essentially have a short list of ~4 teams as realistic destinations bidding for them. I won't criticize the front office for not landing them.

 

[phillipmike]

Fair enough. I would be fine with a move like that as well. That option seems more realistic than a signing of Cole. And unless Colorado decides they're trading one of their two quality starters (Marquez\Gray), Bauer is the only other top-20 starter who is realistically\conceivably available.

I'm increasingly annoyed they missed on Wheeler (and to a lesser extent Gibson). There's no real pitching assets worth investing in available in next year's free agent class (outside of Bauer if he gets there), essentially leaving you with trade as the only avenue to fill out a pitching staff with what I believe will end up being one of the best offenses in baseball.

Doesnt that annoyance go away when Wheeler stated he took less money to stay close to New Jersey as per his wife's wishes?

Gibson might be a different story as i believe the Jays could have had him if they wanted by offering more money, so your annoyance here makes sense. But im not losing much sleep over him.

I get your statement of aim straight for the top, but Cole and Strasburg really aren't free agents; they essentially have a short list of ~4 teams as realistic destinations bidding for them. I won't criticize the front office for not landing them.

Similar to this statement, Wheeler had a short list too and the Jays werent on it.

 

[zeke]

Fair enough. I would be fine with a move like that as well. That option seems more realistic than a signing of Cole. And unless Colorado decides they're trading one of their two quality starters (Marquez\Gray), Bauer is the only other top-20 starter who is realistically\conceivably available.

I'm increasingly annoyed they missed on Wheeler (and to a lesser extent Gibson). There's no real pitching assets worth investing in available in next year's free agent class (outside of Bauer if he gets there), essentially leaving you with trade as the only avenue to fill out a pitching staff with what I believe will end up being one of the best offenses in baseball.

I get your statement of aim straight for the top, but Cole and Strasburg really aren't free agents; they essentially have a short list of ~4 teams as realistic destinations bidding for them. I won't criticize the front office for not landing them.

remember, though, that it's our front office that has been yelling about being "aggressive" on the FA market. it's their own doing.

to be completely honest, I don't see the current team even worth spending on, really, unless they go all out.

For me, there is a young core of 22yr olds and younger on the roster and in the system that give me some hope of being a contender in a few years, but i'm not all that jazzed about the current faux-core of mid-to-late 20yr old mediocrities.

 

[Amadeus]

Chris Archer could be a good buy low candidate to insert mid-rotation. Not sure how far he has fallen off.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm semi-ok with missing out on Wheeler because we already know he took less than other offers to be near New Jersey. So, while I would have been fine with the contract he got, how high would the Jays have had to go to to convince him? It's possible the number would have been ludicrous.

I'm also mostly ok with missing out on guys like Gibson and Pineda because, while I again would have been fine with the contracts they got or even a bit higher, neither is good enough to worry about missing on.

And I think that's one of the most frustrating parts about the way the offseason has gone so far: there are perfectly logical reasons to have missed out on (or passed on or whatever) each individual pitcher who has signed so far, but at some point they just need to get something done, even if that means going a bit higher than they would normally be comfortable going. It's not worth getting worked up over just yet because there are plenty of perfectly cromulent options still available, but they're going to have to pull the trigger at some point.

 

[Discoverer]

For me, there is a young core of 22yr olds and younger on the roster and in the system that give me some hope of being a contender in a few years, but i'm not all that jazzed about the current faux-core of mid-to-late 20yr old mediocrities.

The mid-to-late 20's guys are a "faux-core". They're not a core at all. They're the secondary pieces who hopefully provide cheap value in addition to the actual core and the (hopefully) more expensive pieces.

 

[zeke]

The mid-to-late 20's guys are a "faux-core". They're not a core at all. They're the secondary pieces who hopefully provide cheap value in addition to the actual core and the (hopefully) more expensive pieces.

again, it's the FO themselves who are talking about being agressive and competing right now, when only a couple of the "true core" pieces are even here, and just getting their feet wet.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Doesnt that annoyance go away when Wheeler stated he took less money to stay close to New Jersey as per his wife's wishes?

Gibson might be a different story as i believe the Jays could have had him if they wanted by offering more money, so your annoyance here makes sense. But im not losing much sleep over him.



Similar to this statement, Wheeler had a short list too and the Jays werent on it.

Now, there's a difference between those short lists IMO. Mainly because of the ceiling's of the offers made to the respective players. We've seen many a time that a list can go out the window if an offer is ridiculous enough.

I could entice Cole to tear up his list, but that would cost me a premium over the ~$245M the Yankees are prepared to offer (either in money or years). That's a heavy difference in the $130M or 6 years (or $130M plus free use of one of the Rogers private Jets with service from YTZ to Newark) it would have cost me to convince Wheeler. There's a big difference is tangible cost, opportunity cost, etc. in those two strategies.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

remember, though, that it's our front office that has been yelling about being "aggressive" on the FA market. it's their own doing.

to be completely honest, I don't see the current team even worth spending on, really, unless they go all out.

For me, there is a young core of 22yr olds and younger on the roster and in the system that give me some hope of being a contender in a few years, but i'm not all that jazzed about the current faux-core of mid-to-late 20yr old mediocrities.

We don't disagree on that at all. Its the kids that are the core, the rest can disappear and it wouldn't make much of a difference. Not sure anyone claiming otherwise.

In the right hands, deployable capital and flexibility, in addition to a cheap, very talented core is a recipe for winning. Trouble is, you have to deploy the capital correctly and insulate the core accordingly.

Chris Archer could be a good buy low candidate to insert mid-rotation. Not sure how far he has fallen off.

Far.

I'm semi-ok with missing out on Wheeler because we already know he took less than other offers to be near New Jersey. So, while I would have been fine with the contract he got, how high would the Jays have had to go to to convince him? It's possible the number would have been ludicrous.

I'm also mostly ok with missing out on guys like Gibson and Pineda because, while I again would have been fine with the contracts they got or even a bit higher, neither is good enough to worry about missing on.

And I think that's one of the most frustrating parts about the way the offseason has gone so far: there are perfectly logical reasons to have missed out on (or passed on or whatever) each individual pitcher who has signed so far, but at some point they just need to get something done, even if that means going a bit higher than they would normally be comfortable going. It's not worth getting worked up over just yet because there are plenty of perfectly cromulent options still available, but they're going to have to pull the trigger at some point.

The question is where does the line for ludicrous begin? And, if you don't have to pay your most talented players for four years anyway, why does it matter?

Your final paragraph is precisely on point. Trouble is, I could hire any random investment banker or accountant who knows a bit about baseball and tell them to run a baseball franchise. "This guy is worth X and we have a need, so let's make an offer. Oh, he doesn't want to come here...oh well." That's not good enough. Get creative. His wife wants to be near Jersey? Great, what is six months of being an hour flight away for five years worth to her? Whether it be financial icing on the cake, or non-monetary perks that tip the scale. There's no salary cap in baseball, and therefore, no salary cap violations.

 

[phillipmike]

Now, there's a difference between those short lists IMO. Mainly because of the ceiling's of the offers made to the respective players. We've seen many a time that a list can go out the window if an offer is ridiculous enough.

I could entice Cole to tear up his list, but that would cost me a premium over the ~$245M the Yankees are prepared to offer (either in money or years). That's a heavy difference in the $130M or 6 years (or $130M plus free use of one of the Rogers private Jets with service from YTZ to Newark) it would have cost me to convince Wheeler. There's a big difference is tangible cost, opportunity cost, etc. in those two strategies.

If we knew this to be fact then i would agree with you. But there are other and much more important factors than money for certain players; family being one of them. We saw this with guys like Tavares and Kawhi first hand. Both players turned down a sizable amount of money to go back home. If it were me, i easily take 12M less or 1 less year to play for my home town team in the Jays. Plus if Wheeler lived in north Jersey he was a little over an hour away from Citi Field. New Jersey to Philly is an hour away, so if he currently lives in Jersey, he might not have to move or move that far. That could have been a big factor too.

Not to mention the Jays had the most to lose in terms of draft capital if they signed a QO player.

So i still dont see the "annoyance" being validated with Wheeler but thats just me. I can understand Jays fans annoyance for say missing out on past targets like Darvish, Chapman, Ervin Santana, EE, Donaldson, Price etc. because we know for a fact that these players would have signed/stayed/re-signed and in Darvish's case he had no choice as he went to the highest posting bid.

 

[landy92mack29]

Personally I only want the Jays to sign 1 more inning eating starter with dark horse upside as for me I'd rather they find out what they really have in Borucki, Thornton, SRF, Zeuch, Waguespack and Kay this year. Then next winter(or even the TDL) they'll have a better idea exactly what holes they need to fill and how high end of talent they need to acquire.

 

[Discoverer]

Personally I only want the Jays to sign 1 more inning eating starter with dark horse upside as for me I'd rather they find out what they really have in Borucki, Thornton, SRF, Zeuch, Waguespack and Kay this year. Then next winter(or even the TDL) they'll have a better idea exactly what holes they need to fill and how high end of talent they need to acquire.

I'm kind of in between - Borucki and Thornton have shown enough that I want them both to have a chance at a rotation spot, but I think the other group is a perfect fit to start in Buffalo and wait for an injury or underperformance to get their shot.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If we knew this to be fact then i would agree with you. But there are other and much more important factors than money for certain players; family being one of them. We saw this with guys like Tavares and Kawhi first hand. Both players turned down a sizable amount of money to go back home. If it were me, i easily take 12M less or 1 less year to play for my home town team in the Jays. Plus if Wheeler lived in north Jersey he was a little over an hour away from Citi Field. New Jersey to Philly is an hour away, so if he currently lives in Jersey, he might not have to move or move that far. That could have been a big factor too.

Not to mention the Jays had the most to lose in terms of draft capital if they signed a QO player.

So i still dont see the "annoyance" being validated with Wheeler but thats just me. I can understand Jays fans annoyance for say missing out on past targets like Darvish, Chapman, Ervin Santana, EE, Donaldson, Price etc. because we know for a fact that these players would have signed/stayed/re-signed and in Darvish's case he had no choice as he went to the highest posting bid.

Kawhi is a bad example. Home only won out when Paul George was acquired. The Raptors made a call (the correct call) and bowed out of the trade negotiations, ultimately losing Kawhi in the process.

And we’ll never really know what they offered or what he turned down. What we do know is, it wasn’t enough. And the Q pick is a cost of doing business. If Rendon was to say he wanted to play in Toronto, I’d happily throw the Q pick in the trash, and mail Vlad a 1B glove.

I agree we 150% that the annoyance with those AA/Shapiro debacles are far worse. And yes, the annoyance is cumulative and should not be fully placed on this front office. It’s been largely the same; a lot of “I tried bro, I promise” and very little execution. No reason to be forgiving to people ultimately not doing their jobs.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Personally I only want the Jays to sign 1 more inning eating starter with dark horse upside as for me I'd rather they find out what they really have in Borucki, Thornton, SRF, Zeuch, Waguespack and Kay this year. Then next winter(or even the TDL) they'll have a better idea exactly what holes they need to fill and how high end of talent they need to acquire.

I thought they ran the simulation this past season, and have identified the holes?

 

[landy92mack29]

I thought they ran the simulation this past season, and have identified the holes?

The holes are identified but it's still unknown if any of said young guys other than Pearson will be able a impact arm. I think it's important to get them innings to figure out exactly what they are as so far they've had some great, ok and horrible outings. Plus figure out if some of them can be quality pen arms

 

[theaub]

If we knew this to be fact then i would agree with you. But there are other and much more important factors than money for certain players; family being one of them. We saw this with guys like Tavares and Kawhi first hand. Both players turned down a sizable amount of money to go back home. If it were me, i easily take 12M less or 1 less year to play for my home town team in the Jays. Plus if Wheeler lived in north Jersey he was a little over an hour away from Citi Field. New Jersey to Philly is an hour away, so if he currently lives in Jersey, he might not have to move or move that far. That could have been a big factor too.

We neither know or don't know this.

The only facts we have are:
- Wheeler's wife wanted to stay closer to New Jersey
- the White Sox offered more money (but not specifically AAV, so it could have been more years at a lower AAV)
- the Blue Jays had no interest in going above 100M
- Rogers/management has been creative with similar issues before (see #12 here)

But the more overarching point here is I don't see the need to carry water for management in any circumstance when its pretty clear what their "strategy" is this offseason.

 

[phillipmike]

We neither know or don't know this.

The only facts we have are:
- Wheeler's wife wanted to stay closer to New Jersey
- the White Sox offered more money (but not specifically AAV, so it could have been more years at a lower AAV)
- the Blue Jays had no interest in going above 100M
- Rogers/management has been creative with similar issues before (see #12 here)

But the more overarching point here is I don't see the need to carry water for management in any circumstance when its pretty clear what their "strategy" is this offseason.

"We neither know or don't know this."

 

[LeafChief]

There's still a lot of quality FA's available. Spend some money. Sell off some of the players at the deadline for prospects.

The Sogard move worked out well. I have no doubt we can bring in better players than Sogard and bring in a bigger return at the deadline.

 

[phillipmike]

Kawhi is a bad example. Home only won out when Paul George was acquired. The Raptors made a call (the correct call) and bowed out of the trade negotiations, ultimately losing Kawhi in the process.

I dont know if it is a bad example. Because we hear a lot of things. Kawhi is 99% returning to the Raps. Kawhi is 99% going to the Lakers. Kawhi would only go to the Clippers if George was there. We really do not know what what is. Kawhi said at his press conference that;

"You know, once I got together with my team and we put the pros and cons down, it was never about winning a championship," Leonard told Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. "It was about what the future has to hold. And for me, myself and my family, that's what type of decision I had to make. It's no discredit to Toronto, I just wanted to play at home.​

So we can believe what Kawhi said or not. Many still dont believe him when he straight up said this. In the end this why i dont lose sleep over speculating what a player would or would not have done if a team did this or that. Decisions are made in the heat of the moment and i believe Kawhi when he says that he wanted to go home since he only took meetings with the 2 LA teams and Toronto. If winning a Championship and hitting an iconic shot (first and only time to happen in NBA history) with the Raps wasnt enough, then it is quite clear he want to go home to LA, with or without George.

And we’ll never really know what they offered or what he turned down. What we do know is, it wasn’t enough. And the Q pick is a cost of doing business. If Rendon was to say he wanted to play in Toronto, I’d happily throw the Q pick in the trash, and mail Vlad a 1B glove.

Again why i dont lose sleep. We arent talking a great player (Wheeler) that was had for almost nothing. There were big immediate costs and long term risks with a contract like this on a player with his injury history. By most definitions, Wheeler got more than most thought. On top of that there are other factors like losing the draft pick, its a big reason at least for me. But according to Atkins, he says he isnt worried about losing a pick to sign a free agent but i dont think many believe him.

I agree we 150% that the annoyance with those AA/Shapiro debacles are far worse. And yes, the annoyance is cumulative and should not be fully placed on this front office. It’s been largely the same; a lot of “I tried bro, I promise” and very little execution. No reason to be forgiving to people ultimately not doing their jobs.

I dont look at it as being "forgiving" rather realistic to the player and the marketplace. The player made it clear he wanted to be close to home once again but here are some fan in Toronto upset that we didnt offer enough money to get him. Now if we are sitting here in March/April and the Jays did not add a starting pitcher in the 2nd or 3rd tier then sure we all can complain, but there is a lot of time.

Also i really dont care about effort too much, in the end did we land the player or not? I wouldnt feel any better if we offered Wheeler 200M and free flights and still lost him - i dont know, maybe you would. Like you said it is all about doing their job and Wheeler has to do his, after all he is a free agent and he is free to do what he wants and he wanted to stay close to his wife's hometown.

 

[Morgs]

Sure, though said best arm would need to want to come to Toronto. And that also leads to concentration risk which is something you should avoid, if at all possible.

Question for you, what would your satisfaction level be if they traded Kay and Gurriel Jr. for Trevor Bauer and signed him to a 5y/$120M deal?

I hope you're joking.

Bauer is on record saying he'll never sign more than a 1 year deal as he made a bet with his college roommate that if he did he'd get shot in the nuts with a paintball gun.

 

[Amadeus]

Strasberg back to Nationals on a 7 year deal worth $220M.

Wow!

 

[phillipmike]

Wow the market is crazy.

Bowden said some teams have backed out on Castellanos because the bidding was getting excessive. Heyman says Didi is expected to get more than what was thought of. Both are as a result of what Moose got.

And MadBum's asking price has gone into 9 figures based on what Wheeler got.

I guess the market this year is much stronger than om years past.

 

[theaub]

$$$$$$$$

 

[zeke]

seems like some teams are more aggressive than others.

 

[Discoverer]

That contract is insane.