The Leafs are an enigma

[zeke]

5v5 Offense

16-17: 2.56 gf/60 (#5), 2.68 xgf/60 (#2), 8.3 sh% (#8)
17-18: 2.79 gf/60 (#2), 2.62 xgf/60 (#4), 8.9 sh% (#3)
18-19: 3.03 gf/60 (#2), 2.77 xgf/60 (#3), 9.4 sh% (#3)
19-20: 2.74 gf/60 (#8), 2.61 xgf/60 (#4), 8.6 sh% (#10)
20-21: 2.86 gf/60 (#4), 2.65 xgf/60 (#4), 9.4 sh% (#4)

Excellent offense 5v5 as always - even more impressive lately as they've coupled that with a vast defensive improvement.

PP Offense:

16-17: 9.08 gf/60 (#1), 8.67 xgf/60 (#1), 15.2 sh% (#4)
17-18: 9.50 gf/60 (#2), 9.85 xgf/60 (#1), 14.4 sh% (#8)
18-19: 7.77 gf/60 (#10), 9.39 xgf/60 (#1), 12.5 sh% (#20)
19-20: 8.18 gf/60 (#6), 6.86 xgf/60 (#17), 15.5 sh% (#6)
20-21: 8.01 gf/60 (#10), 8.83 xgf/60 (#1), 13.0 sh% (#20)


2yrs of utter dominanct, followed by 3 yrs of weirdly alternating negative factors.

 

[sparxx87]

5v5 Offense

16-17: 2.56 gf/60 (#5), 2.68 xgf/60 (#2), 8.3 sh% (#8)
17-18: 2.79 gf/60 (#2), 2.62 xgf/60 (#4), 8.9 sh% (#3)
18-19: 3.03 gf/60 (#2), 2.77 xgf/60 (#3), 9.4 sh% (#3)
19-20: 2.74 gf/60 (#8), 2.61 xgf/60 (#4), 8.6 sh% (#10)
20-21: 2.86 gf/60 (#4), 2.65 xgf/60 (#4), 9.4 sh% (#4)

Excellent offense 5v5 as always - even more impressive lately as they've coupled that with a vast defensive improvement.

PP Offense:

16-17: 9.08 gf/60 (#1), 8.67 xgf/60 (#1), 15.2 sh% (#4)
17-18: 9.50 gf/60 (#2), 9.85 xgf/60 (#1), 14.4 sh% (#8)
18-19: 7.77 gf/60 (#10), 9.39 xgf/60 (#1), 12.5 sh% (#20)
19-20: 8.18 gf/60 (#6), 6.86 xgf/60 (#17), 15.5 sh% (#6)
20-21: 8.01 gf/60 (#10), 8.83 xgf/60 (#1), 13.0 sh% (#20)


2yrs of utter dominanct, followed by 3 yrs of weirdly alternating negative factors.

Seems to fit the timeline for when they fired the warden and let the inmates run the asylum.

Probably just a coincidence, though.. right?

 

[stuart5035]

..miniscule?

the sample size is the last three years

exactly

 

[zeke]

You’re lying, again. I responded to a post about point pace, not wins and losses.

I don’t know why it’s so hard to get through to you that winning organizations measure success in April, May and June… talking pace in October is about as silly as it gets. This is for the teams that need moral victories because they can’t win when it matters.

Since you are so so scared of pace, I will rephrase...

"The Leafs have a .625pts%, btw."

 

[egd27]

The Leafs are currently on a 103pt pace, btw.

And Matthews, Marner, & Tavares are currently pacing to score zero goals over 82 games.

But I suppose assuming that's how things will play out would be foolish due to the incredibly small sample size.

 

[zeke]

Seems to fit the timeline for when they fired the warden and let the inmates run the asylum.

Probably just a coincidence, though.. right?

So the inmates have kept up the elite 5v5 offense, have vastly improved the 5v5 defense, but have had lesser results on the PP (with weird alternating results between elite underlying numbers/poor conversion and elite conversion/poor underlying numbers) than the Warden did.

It's up to you to decide which of those factors are more impressive.

 

[zeke]

And Matthews, Marner, & Tavares are currently pacing to score zero goals over 82 games.

But I suppose assuming that's how things will play out would be foolish due to the incredibly small sample size.

Then what are you guys complaining about, exactly?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Great thread topic .. JT Matty Mitch and Willy are just great guys .. really nice people .. none have a mean bone in their body .. none of them are cut da throat players .. to me this is what i see .. and you can't change people's personalities .. hockey has always been a game of survival of fittest .. sure it is changing but it is still a very competitive game where you have to take what you want .. this core does not have it .. it mimics Dubie .. like I have said it needs to be changed up by someone new who knows hockey .. and we need a stud D and G to come out of rebuild

 

[sparxx87]

Since you are so so scared of pace, I will rephrase...

"The Leafs have a .625pts%, btw."

I’m not scared of pace, but I’ve been doing this long enough to know pace in October is irrelevant in a 7 game series in April, May, and June. Nothing about the regular season matters when you’re in a matchup scenario in the playoffs… Regular season points are simply used for seeding. Nothing more.

It’s probably not your fault, though. The general manager of the team buys into the fluff so I can’t blame you for following the lead.

 

[zeke]

I’m not scared of pace, but I’ve been doing this long enough to know pace in October is irrelevant in a 7 game series in April, May, and June. Nothing about the regular season matters when you’re in a matchup scenario in the playoffs… Regular season points are simply used for seeding. Nothing more.

It’s probably not your fault, though. The general manager of the team buys into the fluff so I can’t blame you for following the lead.

So you guys are complaining about what, exactly?

 

[egd27]

Then what are you guys complaining about, exactly?

Not complaining, just pointing out that posting the 103 points pace after 4 games is as ridiculous as posting a 0 goal pace for 34, 16, & 91

 

[sparxx87]

So you guys are complaining about what, exactly?

If you can’t grasp what’s wrong with using pace less than 5 games into the season I’ve given you entirely too much credit.

You care more about trying to ‘win’ an argument and project your opinion than to just be honest and reasonable. It’s unfortunate because when you get away from all the fluff, you’ve contributed some very interesting and insightful opinions over the years.

 

[Gabriel426]

If you can’t grasp what’s wrong with using pace less than 5 games into the season I’ve given you entirely too much credit.

You care more about trying to ‘win’ an argument and project your opinion than to just be honest and reasonable. It’s unfortunate because when you get away from all the fluff, you’ve contributed some very interesting and insightful opinions over the years.

This is one of the best posts I read. Completely agree that posters here are so concern about winning an argument than being reasonable and engaging in discussions.

When I heard this song, it reminds me of this board.

 

[67leafs]

All they need to do is hit the net…..not net hit = no rebounds.

 

[zeke]

Not complaining, just pointing out that posting the 103 points pace after 4 games is as ridiculous as posting a 0 goal pace for 34, 16, & 91

Seems like this thread is full of posters complaining about our awful start.

We have a .625pts%.

 

[zeke]

If you can’t grasp what’s wrong with using pace less than 5 games into the season I’ve given you entirely too much credit.

You care more about trying to ‘win’ an argument and project your opinion than to just be honest and reasonable. It’s unfortunate because when you get away from all the fluff, you’ve contributed some very interesting and insightful opinions over the years.

Lol.

So scared of "pace". You can say 625pts% or 2-1-1 or 103pts pace and they all say the exact same thing.

And you are somehow mocking this as some sort of "advanced stat".

What exactly are people complaining about this thread?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Lol.

So scared of "pace". You can say 625pts% or 2-1-1 or 103pts pace and they all say the exact same thing.

And you are somehow mocking this as some sort of "advanced stat".

What exactly are people complaining about this thread?

Why even bother posting pace after 4 games? Marner and Tavares are on pace for 0 goals this year, I guess that’s valuable info to you.

 

[zeke]

Why even bother posting pace after 4 games? Marner and Tavares are on pace for 0 goals this year, I guess that’s valuable info to you.

In a thread complaining about the leafs apparently struggling so badly, I posted their actual record.

And now for pages you guys are trying to attack "analytics" and "pace" in order to ignore it.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

In a thread complaining about the leafs apparently struggling so badly, I posted their actual record.

And now for pages you guys are trying to attack "analytics" and "pace" in order to ignore it.

It's fair to "attack" analytics when you use them the way you did though, why is that hard to grasp I don't get it.

 

[zeke]

It's fair to "attack" analytics when you use them the way you did though, why is that hard to grasp I don't get it.

A teams' record is not "analytics".

 

[Pookie]

It's because
1. The sample size is miniscule.
2. Matthews missed 3 games
3. Shesterkin will be a vezina contender this year
4. We're shooting at approximately half the shooting percentage we should be at.

All 4 points kind of go together, but ultimately because the sample size is so small, they can be broken down into individual reasons

Why is sample size a factor here?

It’s not like regular season success means much come playoff time.

We can make observations about the individual games and that’s it. And that’s all it’s always been.

Success against San Jose in October means nothing against Boston in Round 1. Right?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

A teams' record is not "analytics".

You posted pace not just their record.

 

[zeke]

You posted pace not just their record.

It's the same thing.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

It's the same thing.

lol no they're not. How about stating their actual point total which is 5 then. Why the need for extrapolating pace? Because 5 doesn't look as good as 103 point pace does it? It's hard to take you seriously when you try to be this purposefully difficult.

 

[zeke]

lol no they're not. How about stating their actual point total which is 5 then. Why the need for extrapolating pace? Because 5 doesn't look as good as 103 point pace does it? It's hard to take you seriously when you try to be this purposefully difficult.

If you don't think 5pts in 4gms "looks as good" as 103pts in 82gms then you're either fooling yourself or just can't math.