The Leafs are an enigma

[Carltons Cup]

Look at the bright side....we haven't started the season like the Habs. hahahaha

 

[zeke]

The Leafs are currently on a 103pt pace, btw.

 

[sparxx87]

The Leafs are currently on a 103pt pace, btw.

How many playoff games are they on pace to win?

They’re not really an enigma, much of this was very predictable.

 

[ACC1224]

How many playoff games are they on pace to win?

They’re not really an enigma, much of this was very predictable.

They were on a 164 point pace at one point. I don't like how this is trending.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How many playoff games are they on pace to win?

They're undefeated in the playoffs this year.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Its starting to feel like the movie "Groundhog Day"; I realize its only 4 games in but I feel like its just a bad continuing sequel from the past few years-how we dominate, putting on a skating clinic, a puck possession marvel ( all the metrics support this such as high danger scoring attempts, zone entries). And, more likely than not, the opponent goalie reincarnates into Dominik Hasek-but just against our Leaf's that game ( I often look at that same goalie's performance in the next few games he plays and it is like night and day).

Now some would say that this is not a bad problem to have, that there are much worse ones. True, but it leads to a special kind of frustration I find. I think of the game against the Rangers, it was early third period and we were once again dominating, controlling; and yet I felt no enthusiasm, only a foreboding that it would not end kindly.

I have been wracking my brain to try and come up with a reason for this apparent mystery:

-Is it because of the coaching? My own opinion is no-I think Keefe has done a masterful job as the architect of the system that has led to the above dominance. I'm not sure what else he can do, he has been flexible in the past and he has been creative, such as loading up the offence in the last few moments of games, playing Marner on the penalty kill etc.

-Is it because of a lack of 'crease presence' ( i.e. too many pretty passes but with no bodies in front, it all leads to opponent goalies easily seeing the shots). This one has legs, but I don't watch enough other teams to know if this is unique to the Leaf's? I have read that many feel it is a lack of shooters, but I think not personally; Nylander and Matthews are known for their shots.

-Is it because opponents come to our rink instructed to 'collapse around their net' in the face of our offense ( or our supposed offense this year so far); thereby creating an impenetrable barrier, and, as a natural byproduct, making the goalie look other-worldly?

-And yet our overall offensive production is good ( we were the 6th highest scoring team in last years 56 game schedule, but narrow spreads, we could easily have been 15th). But, shouldn't we be higher?

-Is it partly attributable to the opponent goalie getting hyped up at the thought of playing in the hockey mecca that is Toronto ( often in front of family, friends because they are from the GTA).

-Or is our power play where the answer lies? Much like what I describe above-lethal on paper ( Rielly, Marner, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander), a skating and possession marvel to watch-yet little to show? Lots of 'sizzle' but no 'steak'; just like our playoff results?

What say you? I grow tired of the Shesterkin/Forsberg's already. How I dream of a 7-1 blowout win!

This was a great post. Especially your first paragraph for the analytics crowd.

The two bolded points are part of the reason I think we can't score. Our PP is a joke because we have no shot from the point. Rielly makes so many stupid decisions when he tries to shoot. Either he shoots with 0 traffic in front or off a defender's shin/wide of the net. Our only real scoring threats are Matthews and Nylander. I'm not even going to include Tavares anymore because he's become a faceoff specialist so far this year.

Lack of crease presence is a big problem too which also ties into the powerplay. They keep going for the pretty passing play instead of getting to the front of net and screening the goalie. I saw multiple times in that Rangers game where a player, particularly Tavares, are hanging out beside the goalie looking for a tip instead of screening and trying to bank a rebound.

I don't know what the other problems are. They seem to lack confidence in themselves with the exception of Matthews and Nylander it seems.

 

[sparxx87]

They were on a 164 point pace at one point. I don't like how this is trending.

Pace is dumb enough as it is.. less than 5 games in is pure lunacy, but here we are.

 

[budzz]

This was a great post. Especially your first paragraph for the analytics crowd.

The two bolded points are part of the reason I think we can't score. Our PP is a joke because we have no shot from the point. Rielly makes so many stupid decisions when he tries to shoot. Either he shoots with 0 traffic in front or off a defender's shin/wide of the net. Our only real scoring threats are Matthews and Nylander. I'm not even going to include Tavares anymore because he's become a faceoff specialist so far this year.

Lack of crease presence is a big problem too which also ties into the powerplay. They keep going for the pretty passing play instead of getting to the front of net and screening the goalie. I saw multiple times in that Rangers game where a player, particularly Tavares, are hanging out beside the goalie looking for a tip instead of screening and trying to bank a rebound.

I don't know what the other problems are. They seem to lack confidence in themselves with the exception of Matthews and Nylander it seems.

Seems to me last year when our PP was clicking/on fire (early in the season) , we had simmonds park his butt in front of the net. I remember Marner saying "he's ok if I fire it into his chest so it'll drop at his feet". That was working for a bit. Also definitely lack a big shot from the point on the power play. Tired of the soft wristers from Reilly that get turned over. Does anyone practice the big bomb from the blueline anymore? Rarely see it from this team, Muzzin maybe a bit.

 

[Ashdown2]

No actually it's been multiple seasons.

I know, I know...

Michael Bunting, Nick Ritchie and Jack Campbell are gonna change everything for us this year.

Not everyone believes that though.

its not ... we are complinging about offense , on a team that has finished top 5 to 10 in offense for a decade now ...
take a chill pill and wait until to 20 game even 30 game mark before complaining about the offense

 

[zeke]

Not much evidence there to be honest.

From the start of 2018 to the end of last year,

Opposing goalies have the 9th worst save% against the Leafs.

The Leafs have scored the 2nd most goals.

The only teams with winning records against them are:

Boston (toughest Leaf opponent with the Leafs going 2-5 against them)
Carolina
Tampa
Islanders
Predators
Blues
Panthers
Rangers
Blackhawks
Capitals

Not exactly a motley crew beating them and most of the 3 year series wins were by one.

Teams the Leafs are exactly tied with:

Avs
Stars
Pens
Coyotes

The teams the Leafs beat up the worst (by 2 games or more) are:

Sabres
Devils
Wings
Sharks
Kings
Wild
Sens
Ducks
Oilers
Habs
Canucks
Knights
Jets

I dunno, I'm pretty sure the Leafs would probably be one of the more balanced teams in the league when it comes to "playing to your comp".

let me try do dial that all the way in.

Let's look at the previous 3 seasons. We'll look at how our record ranks against each opponent, and I'll list the opponents in order of best record over that time:

blue = top-10
red = bottom-10

1. vTBL: 7gms, .429pts%, 3row (#11)
2. vBOS: 7gms, .286pts%, 2row (#23)
3. vWSH: 5gms, .500pts%, 2row (#12)
4. vCOL: 4gms, .500pts%, 2row (#12)
5. vPIT: 6gms, .500pts%, 3row (#11)
6. vCAR: 5gms, .400pts%, 2row (#20)
7. vVGK: 4gms, .750pts%, 3row (#4)
8. vTOR: ---
9. vNYI: 5gms, .400pts%, 2row (#20)
10. vSTL: 4gms, .375pts%, 1row (#20)
11. vFLA: 7gms, .500pts%, 3row (#18)

12. vNSH: 3gms, .333pts%, 1row (#24)
13. vWPG: 14gms, .679pts%, 8row (#5)
14. vCGY: 13gms, .615pts%, 7row (#9)
15. vMIN: 4gms, .750pts%, 3row (#7)
16. vDAL: 4gms, .500pts%, 2row (#14)
17. vEDM: 13gms, .769pts%, 9row (#5)
18. vPHI: 6gms, .667pts%, 2row (#12)
19. vCBJ: 5gms, .700pts%, 3row (#10)
20. vMTL: 17gms, .706pts%, 10row (#8)
21. vNYR: 6gms, .500pts%, 2row (#21)

22. vARZ: 4gms, .500pts%, 2row (#18)
23. vSJS: 4gms, .750pts%, 3row (#9)
24. vCHI: 4gms, .250pts%, 1row (#28)
25. vVAN: 13gms, .692pts%, 8row (#12)
26. vANA: 4gms, .750pts%, 3row (#8)
27. vNJD: 5gms, 1.000pts%, 5row (#1)
28. vLAK: 5gms, .875pts%, 3row (#5)
29. vBUF: 8gms, .750pts%, 6row (#10)
30. vOTT: 16gms, .625pts%, 9row (#20)
31. vDET: 7gms, .857pts%, 5row (#7)


Not much evidence that we play to the level of our competition. Evidence suggests we rank worse against the top teams than against the bottom or middle teams.

so cue the narrative change: LEAFS ONLY GET POINTS AGAINST BAD TEAMS!!!

 

[zeke]

Pace is dumb enough as it is.. less than 5 games in is pure lunacy, but here we are.

"All i care about is RESULTS, you NERD!"

"lol look at you caring about wins and losses, like a NERD"

 

[sparxx87]

"All i care about is RESULTS, you NERD!"

"lol look at you caring about wins and losses, like a NERD"

I never called you a nerd? I think you have a misunderstanding of some of the basics and it really limits you but I’d say anyone who made an account to come talk hockey on a Internet forum is a bit of a hockey nerd. You, me, and everyone else here.

I’m also quite sure this is the only time a post of mine has contained the word ‘nerd’. That’s your choice of words, not mine.

 

[zeke]

I never called you a nerd? I think you have a misunderstanding of some of the basics and it really limits you but I’d say anyone who made an account to come talk hockey on a Internet forum is a bit of a hockey nerd. You, me, and everyone else here.

I’m also quite sure this is the only time a post of mine has contained the word ‘nerd’.

Well you sure seemed to be mocking analytics for some reason.

Even though we were talking about pure wins and losses.

Can't keep up with you guys - sometimes you care about wins and losses, except when they win.

 

[sparxx87]

Well you sure seemed to be mocking analytics for some reason.

Even though we were talking about pure wins and losses.

Can't keep up with you guys - sometimes you care about wins and losses, except when they win.

Some reason? It couldn’t be because the ones available to you are trash, could it? Literally snake oil to sell to fans, and you buy it!

We’re not talking about pure wins and losses. You’re projecting point totals based on ‘pace’ before they’ve even played 5 games.

People care about winning in the playoffs. That doesn’t happen with the Leafs so you choose to focus on the inconsequential shit to keep pushing the narrative that this team is in good shape under Dubas.

 

[zeke]

Some reason? It couldn’t be because the ones available to you are trash, could it?

We’re not talking about pure wins and losses. You’re projecting point totals based on ‘pace’ before they’ve even played 5 games.

People care about winning in the playoffs. That doesn’t happen with the Leafs so you choose to focus on the inconsequential shit to keep pushing the narrative that this team is in good shape under Dubas.

"LOL analytics nerds"

"LOL caring about wins and losses!"

make up your mind.

 

[Lemontree]

They're undefeated in the playoffs this year.

Very nitpicky but I got to be the jerk who does it...… Leafs are undefeated in the playoffs this season, not this year.

 

[sparxx87]

"LOL analytics nerds"

"LOL caring about wins and losses!"

make up your mind.

Playoffs wins and losses. It’s not that difficult.

… and I understand you may be addressed as nerd by some, but that’s not me so please have the decency not to put words in my mouth. Your lying is funny, but don’t misrepresent how I address you. It only makes you look worse.

 

[zeke]

Playoffs wins and losses. It’s not that difficult.

… and I understand you may be addressed as nerd by some, but that’s not me so please have the decency not to put words in my mouth. Your lying is funny, but don’t misrepresent how I address you. It only makes you look worse.

You want to LOL at the" analytics" boogeyman, even when responding to a post about pure wins and losses, then you're going to have to realize what you sound like.

 

[HyperX]

It's because
1. The sample size is miniscule.
2. Matthews missed 3 games
3. Shesterkin will be a vezina contender this year
4. We're shooting at approximately half the shooting percentage we should be at.

All 4 points kind of go together, but ultimately because the sample size is so small, they can be broken down into individual reasons

..miniscule?

the sample size is the last three years

 

[AvroArrow]

As the great Ron Wilson once (actually 1000 times) said, "ran into a hot goaltender"

 

[sparxx87]

You want to LOL at the" analytics" boogeyman, even when responding to a post about pure wins and losses, then you're going to have to realize what you sound like.

There is no analytics boogeyman, just a faction of fans who don’t know any better.

Pace is ‘pure wins and losses’?

What I sound like? I’ve been saying the same shit for 3+ years now and despite continuously being proven right, you still grasp at snake oil to try to argue otherwise.

 

[djdev]

LOL this fanbase is mental, seriously.

 

[zeke]

There is no analytics boogeyman, just a faction of fans who don’t know any better.

Pace is ‘pure wins and losses’?

What I sound like? I’ve been saying the same shit for 3+ years now and despite continuously being proven right, you still grasp at snake oil to try to argue otherwise.

you literally responded to a post about WINS and LOSSES, and tried to mock it as some kind of nerddom.

 

[Zybalto]

I just wanted to say even though I don't always agree with you, I appreciate your posts. I have no idea where you find the time and energy to dig up all these numbers but thanks for sharing. There's two posters (who I won't name) who are constantly bombarding this place with numbers. I have them both on ignore but that would not be the case if they were more like you. Your posting style is almost identical to theirs, you're just lacking the irrational bias, arrogance and condescension which makes you a pleasure to read. And I have to admit, your posts are making me worry less about the future of this team and Marner in particular. M&M are just so freaking talented, if only someone would lift the curse on this team, we could be in for some fun times!

Heh, I bet I could guess who you are talking about but I've never actually put anyone on ignore as I think almost everyone here isnt just an irrational troll but actually has a point to make and if this place has shown me anything, it's that people will never admit mistakes even when they are staring them in the face. (I've been guilty of this myself too many times to list in the past). All I can do is look at things and give my best analysis of what's going or went on.

...and it's true we're all fans here and thats the silver lining on all this. The team has never looked better for basically this generation and the biggest problem appears to be the teams shooting% in the playoffs...and analytically or even traditionally, that's considered bad puck luck. What's even more infuriating is that it's coming from the 7th best shooting team in the league the last 2 years.....so I can understand the anger thats out there but we should still head into the season confident. It's nice having a decent team for an extended period for once.

Heres some fun stats to look at I was just thinking about while writing this:

Bottom 5 teams for shooting% in the last two playoffs, their regular seasons ranking and the goalies they faced.

20. Blues: Against Markstrom and Grubauer, 9th during the regular season.
21. Leafs: Against Korpisalo/Merzlikins and Price, 7th during the regular season.
22. Penguins: Against Price and Varlamov/Sorokin, 6th during the regular season
23. Capitals: Against Varlamov and Rask, 1st during the regular season
24. Rangers (One series): Against Mrazek, 4th during the regular season

Just think it's kind of interesting how all these top ten shooting teams fell off so drastically in the playoffs the last 2 years with three of the 5 being the very three teams that preceded the Lightning as cup champs.

 

[sparxx87]

you literally responded to a post about WINS and LOSSES, and tried to mock it as some kind of nerddom.

You’re lying, again. I responded to a post about point pace, not wins and losses.

I don’t know why it’s so hard to get through to you that winning organizations measure success in April, May and June… talking pace in October is about as silly as it gets. This is for the teams that need moral victories because they can’t win when it matters.