The Leafs are an enigma

[stuart5035]

Its starting to feel like the movie "Groundhog Day"; I realize its only 4 games in but I feel like its just a bad continuing sequel from the past few years-how we dominate, putting on a skating clinic, a puck possession marvel ( all the metrics support this such as high danger scoring attempts, zone entries). And, more likely than not, the opponent goalie reincarnates into Dominik Hasek-but just against our Leaf's that game ( I often look at that same goalie's performance in the next few games he plays and it is like night and day).

Now some would say that this is not a bad problem to have, that there are much worse ones. True, but it leads to a special kind of frustration I find. I think of the game against the Rangers, it was early third period and we were once again dominating, controlling; and yet I felt no enthusiasm, only a foreboding that it would not end kindly.

I have been wracking my brain to try and come up with a reason for this apparent mystery:

-Is it because of the coaching? My own opinion is no-I think Keefe has done a masterful job as the architect of the system that has led to the above dominance. I'm not sure what else he can do, he has been flexible in the past and he has been creative, such as loading up the offence in the last few moments of games, playing Marner on the penalty kill etc.

-Is it because of a lack of 'crease presence' ( i.e. too many pretty passes but with no bodies in front, it all leads to opponent goalies easily seeing the shots). This one has legs, but I don't watch enough other teams to know if this is unique to the Leaf's? I have read that many feel it is a lack of shooters, but I think not personally; Nylander and Matthews are known for their shots.

-Is it because opponents come to our rink instructed to 'collapse around their net' in the face of our offense ( or our supposed offense this year so far); thereby creating an impenetrable barrier, and, as a natural byproduct, making the goalie look other-worldly?

-And yet our overall offensive production is good ( we were the 6th highest scoring team in last years 56 game schedule, but narrow spreads, we could easily have been 15th). But, shouldn't we be higher?

-Is it partly attributable to the opponent goalie getting hyped up at the thought of playing in the hockey mecca that is Toronto ( often in front of family, friends because they are from the GTA).

-Or is our power play where the answer lies? Much like what I describe above-lethal on paper ( Rielly, Marner, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander), a skating and possession marvel to watch-yet little to show? Lots of 'sizzle' but no 'steak'; just like our playoff results?

What say you? I grow tired of the Shesterkin/Forsberg's already. How I dream of a 7-1 blowout win!

Click to read more...

 

[The Podium]

Somehow the Leafs can either play D or offense but rarely both. The times they are both working, the goalies fall of a cliff.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Refs should be a point

 

[Advanced stats]

It's because
1. The sample size is miniscule.
2. Matthews missed 3 games
3. Shesterkin will be a vezina contender this year
4. We're shooting at approximately half the shooting percentage we should be at.

All 4 points kind of go together, but ultimately because the sample size is so small, they can be broken down into individual reasons

 

[Stephen]

Losing to Shesterkin in OT in a low scoring is obviously going to drag up some unpleasant recent memories, but they also looked commanding in that game and they have to take the good and build on it.

 

[Flipwon]

Its too early for this, even for us leafs fans. C'mon now.

 

[Mess]

I've said it before and I'll say it again....

I believe the Leafs play to the level of their competition. They play good teams close by elevating their game and they also play weaker teams close also by taking for granted and expecting to win games as the favourites, relying on skill without the will often to compete.

Playoff losses to CBJ and Mon in recent years are examples of the later. We also have seen the Leafs going on a California trip and lose all 3 to bottom teams only to return home to beat TB the eventual Cup winner X 2.

Leafs would be in a more favouarable situation particularly come playoff time if they we're the underdogs and with lower expectations, because then you would see a true Leafs team come out. IMO

The word "killer instinct" has been thrown around by management in what is lacking from the Leafs and this aligns with what is happening in real time on not being able to close out teams and games.

 

[Apex Predator]

I've said it before and I'll say it again....

I believe the Leafs play to the level of their competition. They play good teams close by elevating their game and the also play weaker teams close also by taking for granted and expecting to win games as the favourites, relying on skill without the will often to compete.

Playoff losses to CBJ and Mon in recent years are examples of the later. We also have seen the Leafs going on a California trip and lose all 3 to bottom teams only to return home to beat TB the eventual Cup winner X 2.

Leafs would be in a more favouarable situation particularly come playoff time if they we're the underdogs and with lower expectations, because then you would see a true Leafs team come out. IMO

The word "killer instinct" has been thrown around by management in what is lacking from the Leafs and this aligns with what is happening in real time on not being able to close out teams and games.

Hmm interesting!! That does make sense and fits what’s been going on with the team recent years.

 

[Zybalto]

Not much evidence there to be honest.

From the start of 2018 to the end of last year,

Opposing goalies have the 9th worst save% against the Leafs.

The Leafs have scored the 2nd most goals.

The only teams with winning records against them are:

Boston (toughest Leaf opponent with the Leafs going 2-5 against them)
Carolina
Tampa
Islanders
Predators
Blues
Panthers
Rangers
Blackhawks
Capitals

Not exactly a motley crew beating them and most of the 3 year series wins were by one.

Teams the Leafs are exactly tied with:

Avs
Stars
Pens
Coyotes

The teams the Leafs beat up the worst (by 2 games or more) are:

Sabres
Devils
Wings
Sharks
Kings
Wild
Sens
Ducks
Oilers
Habs
Canucks
Knights
Jets

I dunno, I'm pretty sure the Leafs would probably be one of the more balanced teams in the league when it comes to "playing to your comp".

 

[TakeTheBody]

Leafs enigma? Water is wet.

 

[Ashdown2]

its 4 games .... ffs

 

[Atomos2]

The Leafs are the same team they've always been and that's neither good nor bad. The season will have up and downs just like any other season would. I don't have much confidence in how they'll play in the playoffs but that far in the future anyway. So you might as well enjoy the entertainment of the season. No point getting panicked in a regular season game unless the Leafs start slumping hard.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Maybe rebuild from the net out

 

[supermann_98]

Leafs enigma? Or Leafs enema? Either way both give me the runs

 

[Bomber0104]

Its starting to feel like the movie "Groundhog Day"; I realize its only 4 games in but I feel like its just a bad continuing sequel from the past few years-how we dominate, putting on a skating clinic, a puck possession marvel ( all the metrics support this such as high danger scoring attempts, zone entries). And, more likely than not, the opponent goalie reincarnates into Dominik Hasek-but just against our Leaf's that game ( I often look at that same goalie's performance in the next few games he plays and it is like night and day).

Now some would say that this is not a bad problem to have, that there are much worse ones. True, but it leads to a special kind of frustration I find. I think of the game against the Rangers, it was early third period and we were once again dominating, controlling; and yet I felt no enthusiasm, only a foreboding that it would not end kindly.

I have been wracking my brain to try and come up with a reason for this apparent mystery:

-Is it because of the coaching? My own opinion is no-I think Keefe has done a masterful job as the architect of the system that has led to the above dominance. I'm not sure what else he can do, he has been flexible in the past and he has been creative, such as loading up the offence in the last few moments of games, playing Marner on the penalty kill etc.

-Is it because of a lack of 'crease presence' ( i.e. too many pretty passes but with no bodies in front, it all leads to opponent goalies easily seeing the shots). This one has legs, but I don't watch enough other teams to know if this is unique to the Leaf's? I have read that many feel it is a lack of shooters, but I think not personally; Nylander and Matthews are known for their shots.

-Is it because opponents come to our rink instructed to 'collapse around their net' in the face of our offense ( or our supposed offense this year so far); thereby creating an impenetrable barrier, and, as a natural byproduct, making the goalie look other-worldly?

-And yet our overall offensive production is good ( we were the 6th highest scoring team in last years 56 game schedule, but narrow spreads, we could easily have been 15th). But, shouldn't we be higher?

-Is it partly attributable to the opponent goalie getting hyped up at the thought of playing in the hockey mecca that is Toronto ( often in front of family, friends because they are from the GTA).

-Or is our power play where the answer lies? Much like what I describe above-lethal on paper ( Rielly, Marner, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander), a skating and possession marvel to watch-yet little to show? Lots of 'sizzle' but no 'steak'; just like our playoff results?

What say you? I grow tired of the Shesterkin/Forsberg's already. How I dream of a 7-1 blowout win!

Some good less-talked about points in this post.

I've bolded what I agree with and have been on-record saying as well.

I've said it before and I'll say it again....

I believe the Leafs play to the level of their competition. They play good teams close by elevating their game and the also play weaker teams close also by taking for granted and expecting to win games as the favourites, relying on skill without the will often to compete.

Playoff losses to CBJ and Mon in recent years are examples of the later. We also have seen the Leafs going on a California trip and lose all 3 to bottom teams only to return home to beat TB the eventual Cup winner X 2.

Leafs would be in a more favouarable situation particularly come playoff time if they we're the underdogs and with lower expectations, because then you would see a true Leafs team come out. IMO

The word "killer instinct" has been thrown around by management in what is lacking from the Leafs and this aligns with what is happening in real time on not being able to close out teams and games.

And, of course, this...

No other way to explain getting beat by worse and worse opponents every year in the playoffs, getting beat by zamboni drivers, teams decimated by Covid, the last place Senators, etc.

There's too much primary evidence to suggest otherwise.

 

[Bomber0104]

its 4 games .... ffs

No actually it's been multiple seasons.

I know, I know...

Michael Bunting, Nick Ritchie and Jack Campbell are gonna change everything for us this year.

Not everyone believes that though.

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Shesterkin sounds like a dungeons and dragons playable race. Like an elf offshoot

 

[hockeyes]

Leafs move the puck too slow in the offensive zone, very few quick decisions, lots of looking around and holding onto the puck. Lets goalies settle in and track plays developing.

 

[stuart5035]

Leafs move the puck too slow in the offensive zone, very few quick decisions, lots of looking around and holding onto the puck. Lets goalies settle in and track plays developing.

good point

 

[Antropovsky]

Leafs move the puck too slow in the offensive zone, very few quick decisions, lots of looking around and holding onto the puck. Lets goalies settle in and track plays developing.

Agreed... Marner passes out of prime scoring positions all the time, or he tries to deke himself into the net. Great goal scorers get shots off fast, Marner gets pucks and hesitates to look for the perfect play. I'm beginning to see just a shinny player.

He makes alot of fun plays, don't get me wrong, but the plays he makes are plays that quickly get snuffed out in the playoffs because the oppositions effort levels max out (as we've seen).

 

[ACC1224]

I've said it before and I'll say it again....

I believe the Leafs play to the level of their competition. They play good teams close by elevating their game and the also play weaker teams close also by taking for granted and expecting to win games as the favourites, relying on skill without the will often to compete.

Playoff losses to CBJ and Mon in recent years are examples of the later. We also have seen the Leafs going on a California trip and lose all 3 to bottom teams only to return home to beat TB the eventual Cup winner X 2.

Leafs would be in a more favouarable situation particularly come playoff time if they we're the underdogs and with lower expectations, because then you would see a true Leafs team come out. IMO

The word "killer instinct" has been thrown around by management in what is lacking from the Leafs and this aligns with what is happening in real time on not being able to close out teams and games.

That has been evident for a while and a few of us have pointed it out in the past followed by a stampede of stats and excuses.

 

[stuart5035]

Not much evidence there to be honest.

From the start of 2018 to the end of last year,

Opposing goalies have the 9th worst save% against the Leafs.

The Leafs have scored the 2nd most goals.

The only teams with winning records against them are:

Boston (toughest Leaf opponent with the Leafs going 2-5 against them)
Carolina
Tampa
Islanders
Predators
Blues
Panthers
Rangers
Blackhawks
Capitals

Not exactly a motley crew beating them and most of the 3 year series wins were by one.

Teams the Leafs are exactly tied with:

Avs
Stars
Pens
Coyotes

The teams the Leafs beat up the worst (by 2 games or more) are:

Sabres
Devils
Wings
Sharks
Kings
Wild
Sens
Ducks
Oilers
Habs
Canucks
Knights
Jets

I dunno, I'm pretty sure the Leafs would probably be one of the more balanced teams in the league when it comes to "playing to your comp".

well researched

 

[The Blueprint]

We're just cursed. Stop trying to look for some rational reason that can be fixed. We've had multiple support players we deemed unworthy walk just to win a cup within a year or two, or be a big part of contributing in the playoffs.

I've accepted it and I'm a lot happier now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not much evidence there to be honest.

From the start of 2018 to the end of last year,

Opposing goalies have the 9th worst save% against the Leafs.

The Leafs have scored the 2nd most goals.

The only teams with winning records against them are:

Boston (toughest Leaf opponent with the Leafs going 2-5 against them)
Carolina
Tampa
Islanders
Predators
Blues
Panthers
Rangers
Blackhawks
Capitals

Not exactly a motley crew beating them and most of the 3 year series wins were by one.

Teams the Leafs are exactly tied with:

Avs
Stars
Pens
Coyotes

The teams the Leafs beat up the worst (by 2 games or more) are:

Sabres
Devils
Wings
Sharks
Kings
Wild
Sens
Ducks
Oilers
Habs
Canucks
Knights
Jets

I dunno, I'm pretty sure the Leafs would probably be one of the more balanced teams in the league when it comes to "playing to your comp".

I just wanted to say even though I don't always agree with you, I appreciate your posts. I have no idea where you find the time and energy to dig up all these numbers but thanks for sharing. There's two posters (who I won't name) who are constantly bombarding this place with numbers. I have them both on ignore but that would not be the case if they were more like you. Your posting style is almost identical to theirs, you're just lacking the irrational bias, arrogance and condescension which makes you a pleasure to read. And I have to admit, your posts are making me worry less about the future of this team and Marner in particular. M&M are just so freaking talented, if only someone would lift the curse on this team, we could be in for some fun times!

 

[Apex Predator]

That has been evident for a while and a few of us have pointed it out in the past followed by a stampede of stats and excuses.

ha ha right I’m so over all the advanced stats telling us how good we are.