That's exactly why I suggested folks look at the 2018-2019 season. 82+ games of data that evens out such variance.
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The Jarmo Thread
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Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
No; Kucherov is something truly special. But I do see the potential for a pretty good goalscorer.
Cyclones Rock
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Hopefully he'll be at least as productive as Bjorkstrand. Offensive talent usually show itself early in a career. If I'm not mistaken, most players peak in scoring by age 25.
Oh I see. Well I don't know what you're looking at but last year's shooting percentage for the team was 9.9%, 10th in the league. This year it's 29th in the league, at 7.7%. And yes, I checked, only a small part of that is from losing Panarin.
EspenK
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- Sep 25, 2011
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I'm not sure how you determined that only a small portion of the decline is attributable to losing Panarin. In my simplistic way of looking at it Panarin had 59 assists last year. That is 59 goals that someone else has to create. With the abundance of playmakers on the Jackets it isn't hard for me to see why the shooting percentage has tanked.
Last year their on-ice shooting percentage with Panarin on the ice was 11.42%. With Panarin off the ice it was 9.13%. So they're 16% below where they were last year when they didn't have their best talent on the ice.
I might be persuaded by the expected goals stats on this one - that they're playing much more defensively oriented this year so the shot quality is just dramatically lower. They've put away safe is death and so on..
Last year's xG stats said they ought to score 2.74 per and give up 2.53 per (they scored 3.1 and gave up 2.8). This year's stats say they ought to score 2.53 and give up 2.22. They've scored 2.51 and given up 3.09.
EspenK
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I'd like to see some rumors of trying to sign PLD to a long term deal. Hopefully Jarmo doesn't go the tough RFA stance. Anybody hear anything? I think I remember something along the lines of working on it after the first of the year? I'd try for an 8 year deal @7.5mm but may have to go a bit higher. I mean who else do we have that is going to fill the 1C spot?
When has Jarmo ever signed a young guy coming off his ELC early? Wennberg -> went into September after his 7/1 FA. Johansen -> dragged into camp to get him to a bridge. Anderson -> dragged into camp to get him to a bridge. I just don't remember very many guys committing quickly to their next deal after their ELC here. Maybe that's Jarmo, maybe that's the young guys wanting to "bet on themselves" with a strong contract year or whatever. But yeah, not a lot of "early" extensions have been signed here and certainly very few, if any, for players coming off their ELCs.
Cyclones Rock
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Jarmo has never grasped the contract game.
The lack of willingness to give top RFAs 6 year deals (Johansen, Werenski, Bobrovski, Atkinson when it would have been a good deal) 5 or 6 year deals to Anderson-type players (though this looks good in hindsight at this particular moment) wasn't "principled". His strategy with RFAs has been short sighted and dull minded.
On the other end, he hands out long term contracts to players who will be well beyond their primes midway through them. Foligno, Dubinsky, Atkinson. Then there's Wennberg whose "prime" we're experiencing right now
His non CBJ UFA signings were almost universally horrible until Nyquist. Horton, Campbell, Nash.
He didn't screw up Jones. Can't miss 'em all. Savard either.
Jarmo's performance in the realm of contracts has been pathetic. No reason to think that it will change. PLD will go to the 11th hour most likely. Given he started the season with confidence that Korpisalo would be a viable goalie, there was no reason not to go 3 years at around $2 million with him. Now he'll pay more.
Jarmo has no clue about proper term for players. He's all about being a hard ass to RFAs and then a pushover with CBJ UFAs. He's a terrible contract manager.
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Jarmo has never grasped the contract game.
The lack of willingness to give top RFAs 6 year deals (Johansen, Werenski, Bobrovski, Atkinson when it would have been a good deal) 5 or 6 year deals to Anderson-type players (though this looks good in hindsight at this particular moment) wasn't "principled". His strategy with RFAs has been short sighted and dull minded.
On the other end, he hands out long term contracts to players who will be well beyond their primes midway through them. Foligno, Dubinsky, Atkinson. Then there's Wennberg whose "prime" we're experiencing right now
His non CBJ UFA signings were almost universally horrible until Nyquist. Horton, Campbell, Nash.
He didn't screw up Jones. Can't miss 'em all. Savard either.
Jarmo's performance in the realm of contracts has been pathetic. No reason to think that it will change. PLD will go to the 11th hour most likely. Given he started the season with confidence that Korpisalo would be a viable goalie, there was no reason not to go 3 years at around $2 million with him. Now he'll pay more.
Jarmo has no clue about proper term for players. He's all about being a hard ass to RFAs and then a pushover with CBJ UFAs. He's a terrible contract manager.
I agree. He seems to want to pick fights with his future stars and their agents, while he overpays for guys he doesn't need to. But your post nailed it.
Cyclones Rock
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A list of bad contracts on the CBJ right now:
The bad:
1) Atkinson $5.875m (5+ years left)
The really, really bad
1) Wennberg $4.9m AAV (3+ years left)
2) Dubinsky $5.85 AAV (1+ years left)
3) Nash $2.75 AAV (1+ years left)
Not even putting Foligno in this. There's almost $20 million of bad contracts going on with a team cap hit of a little over $70 million-it's about 30% of the contracts being severely under performing.
I am stunned that Jarmo has any defenders on this board. Almost a third of his cap is allocated toward bad contracts. Despite that he had plenty of cap room to work with this summer (a lot more if he would have bought out Wennberg) and managed to score Nyquist and no one else and-according to almost everyone on this board-has this incredibly deep defense to dangle in front of other GMs.
He needs to go this off season.
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^I would take Nash off the list because $2.75m annually isn't that much and he can be scratched without a problem. I'd add Foligno because that was another contract handed out with term & money to a guy coming off a career year that he's never lived up to (1 season above 40 points during that contract).
Wennberg is 0-1-1 in his last 7 games, 0-3-3 in his last 15, and 0-4-4 in his last 19. Even Torts has had it as he's off the PP units now and his TOI has dropped from in the 16-19 minute range (if not more) to 13:43, 13:18, 8:38, and 9:17 the last 4 games. He's getting the Milano treatment.
Wennberg is 0-1-1 in his last 7 games, 0-3-3 in his last 15, and 0-4-4 in his last 19. Even Torts has had it as he's off the PP units now and his TOI has dropped from in the 16-19 minute range (if not more) to 13:43, 13:18, 8:38, and 9:17 the last 4 games. He's getting the Milano treatment.
Cyclones Rock
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I wasn't aware of how bad Wennberg's numbers had been of late. Needs to go to Cleveland.
Nash isn't that big of a deal. I hesitate to put Foligno on it because I think he's a valuable player and I appreciate his leadership role. Probably a $4 million and not a $5.5 million over the course of his deal.
Ice9
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I'm guessing like a director, manager or supervisor in most companies Jarmos directive comes from the top. Spend this, no contracts longer than, get this guy outta here
and so on and so forth. Responsible for the talent but not as much for the set spending per year. He's neither here nor there with me...
and so on and so forth. Responsible for the talent but not as much for the set spending per year. He's neither here nor there with me...
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Its funny how you say Wennberg is getting the Milano treatment and how he is 0-3-3 in his last 15 games. Although Milano has been noticably better as of late, he is 0-4-4 in his last 15 games. Two guys playing totally different games right now, but almost the same production. You really need your teammates help out there, Milano has probably lost 5-6 assists from people not finishing. I don't pay that much attention to Wennberg because he seems to like mailing it in. I am all for sending him to Cleveland, but only if someone else claims him, the Monsters have a hard enough time scoring to have someone who can't be bothered with hustling and playing well to come here and not contribute.
koteka
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A bad contract is Milan Lucic. He is in year 4 of 7 x $6 million and other than the first year has been awful.
We have 1 fairly bad contract which is Dubi but that is what has been happening in the NHL the last several seasons — 27 or 28 year olds get signed to 6, 7, or 8 year contracts. He was decent the first 2 years.
Nash has a contract that is too small too worry about unless you are right at the cap. We could trade Nash at the deadline if we so choose.
We could trade Wennberg tomorrow no problem. Maybe we retain a million or a million and a half on Wennberg, but we are not buying him out. He is overpaid, but not $4 million overpaid.
The jury is still out on Cam. It is likely to turn out to be a bad contract, but it is too soon to call it that now. He has started slow before. Again it is stupid to sign long contracts to guys his age but that is today’s NHL.
Would you trade any of those four for Lucic? Okposo? Seabrook? Heck, would you trade any of them for 3 1/2 year of Toewes at $10.5 million/year?
Meanwhile we have Jones on a great contract.
Worrying about our contracts is a waste of time. Worry about our prospect pool. Worry about our dearth of draft picks. Worry about the Metro having so many recent top picks who could blossom in the next few years. Worry about a crappy upcoming UFA class that won’t fix our issues. Worry that teams don’t seem to be valuing defense that much in the trade market. Worry about our lack of scoring.
We have 1 fairly bad contract which is Dubi but that is what has been happening in the NHL the last several seasons — 27 or 28 year olds get signed to 6, 7, or 8 year contracts. He was decent the first 2 years.
Nash has a contract that is too small too worry about unless you are right at the cap. We could trade Nash at the deadline if we so choose.
We could trade Wennberg tomorrow no problem. Maybe we retain a million or a million and a half on Wennberg, but we are not buying him out. He is overpaid, but not $4 million overpaid.
The jury is still out on Cam. It is likely to turn out to be a bad contract, but it is too soon to call it that now. He has started slow before. Again it is stupid to sign long contracts to guys his age but that is today’s NHL.
Would you trade any of those four for Lucic? Okposo? Seabrook? Heck, would you trade any of them for 3 1/2 year of Toewes at $10.5 million/year?
Meanwhile we have Jones on a great contract.
Worrying about our contracts is a waste of time. Worry about our prospect pool. Worry about our dearth of draft picks. Worry about the Metro having so many recent top picks who could blossom in the next few years. Worry about a crappy upcoming UFA class that won’t fix our issues. Worry that teams don’t seem to be valuing defense that much in the trade market. Worry about our lack of scoring.
Viqsi
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Cyclones Rock
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Why would you retain $1.5 million on Wennberg when a buyout would be the equivalent of that?
Trading Wennberg no problem?
Nobody would claim the bum on waivers for nothing if he were designated for assignment in Cleveland. If the CBJ don't buy Wennberg out at 1/3rd this summer then Jarmo is a complete incompetent. Wennberg ranks in the bottom of the league in 5 vs 5 point/60 minutes. He's not worth $1.5 million let alone the $5.3 million he's earning for this season and the next 3. Buying him out is at 1/3rd of remaining contract value is a no brainer.What exactly would Riley Nash add to a team contending for the playoffs? He's getting scratched regularly on a non playoff contender.
Toews will make $7 million next year and $6.9 million the last two years of his deal. He had 35 goals and 46 assists last year. You wouldn't trade Cam or Wennberg for him? Ok.
Having 30% of your contracts that are severely under performing should not be acceptable. Unless a 27th overall standing in the NHL would be considered acceptable.
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koteka
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Why would you retain $1.5 million on Wennberg when a buyout would be the equivalent of that?
Trading Wennberg no problem?
What exactly would Riley Nash add to a team contending for the playoffs? He's getting scratched regularly on a non playoff contender.
Toews will make $7 million next year and $6.9 million the last two years of his deal. He had 35 goals and 46 assists last year. You wouldn't trade Cam or Wennberg for him? Ok.
Having 30% of your contracts that are severely under performing should not be acceptable. Unless a 27th overall standing in the NHL would be considered acceptable.
Nash is better in the playoffs than the regular season. You don’t think a team like Edmonton could use him?
Toews takes up $10.5 million of cap space. If he were on our team, we would be struggling to resign PLD, Milano, Anderson, Gavrikov, and Kukan this year plus Bjork, Tex and one of Murray/Savard next year, and then there is the year we need to resign Jones and Werenski. What would Toewes add to our team? No, I would not trade those guys for him because it would screw up our team completely in a couple of years.
Buyouts are stupid. They take so long to come off the books. Retaining salary and getting contracts off the books sooner is the smarter play. I don’t get the hate for Wennberg. He is not worth $5 million, but he is worth about $3 million or so and still has upside. Another team would take him.
We are not making the playoffs this year. I expected that. I am not surprised that we are where we are without an experienced goalie and losing our best offensive player in franchise history. I am not freaked out by that.
We have a myriad of things we could worry about. Contracts are not anywhere near the top of the list.
If you want to worry about something, come up with a list of our best 5 forward prospects not in the NHL.
1 Foudy
2 Marchenko - will he ever come to the CBJ?
3 2020 1st round pick (maybe higher if we draft in top 5)
4 Fix-Wolansky
I don’t see anyone that will help this team next year, so we are rolling with what we already have. Plus maybe an overpaid free agent like 30 year old Matt Hoffman. That is what you should be worried about. And buying out Wennberg and trading Nash and having Dubi retire wouldn’t change that reality.
They've only recently started to flip TOI. Milano was the one getting low TOI, no PP time, etc. So the total number of points isn't wholly indicative of their play. Give me a points/60 comparison.
Milano has been making a lot of good passes to teammates who can't put the puck in the net. Sometimes the identity of your teammates does impact your stats.
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You are right. TOI has recently flipped because it has been only recently Milano has earned the ice time. Sonny definately has the point per 60 edge, but the bottom line is he has one more point. That is the reality. I am sure you have noticed I am not an advanced stat guy, way too many variables. I also said that Milano had plenty of more points in that span left out there because of teammates missing his passes and not finishing what could have been goals, with him getting the assists, but again, goals aren't guaranteed, and goalies make nice saves and so on. I was just pointing out, again, statistics can really not show the whole story. Milano has flat out outplayed Wennberg the last 15 games. PP/60 doesn't matter because the reality is he had one more point. Wennberg was a -1 and Milano -3 in that span. That still doesn't mean much because of the situations. Did Milano get a minus be cause he just stepped on the ice when the goal was scored and had nothing to do with it? Advanced stats won't tell you that. You have to see it when it happens. Wennberg has been awful, I don't need stats to tell me that. Everytime he passes up a chance to take a shot tells me that. Everytime I do notice him on the ice, and he contributes nothing, that tells me he isn't playing good. Milano may not have the points to show for his play on offence, but I see the good passes he makes, stats won't show me that. Defensively he still needs work, but he has been better lately, you don't need stats, you can see it when you watch.
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Cyclones Rock
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Are you aware of Wennberg's buyout numbers? He can be bought out at 1/3rd of his deal:
Alexander Wennberg Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
cost/yr CBJ cash savings cap hit
| 2020-21 | $5,350,000 | $4,900,000 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | $4,458,333 | $441,667 |
| 2021-22 | $5,350,000 | $4,900,000 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | $4,458,333 | $441,667 |
| 2022-23 | $5,350,000 | $4,900,000 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | $4,458,333 | $441,667 |
| 2023-24 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | -$891,667 | $891,667 |
| 2024-25 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | -$891,667 | $891,667 |
| 2025-26 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $891,667 | $891,667 | -$891,667 | $891,667 |
**I can't get the line above the chart explaining the chart to line up**
If this is stupid, then sign me up for some more stupid pills.
Riley Nash is better in the playoffs? Based on what? His 7 games out of 13 that he could have played last year? What exactly would he bring to Edmonton? He's a scratch for the 27th ranked CBJ on a regular basis.
Sure Toews has a bigger cap hit, but it's for 3 more years and one would be seriously upgrading between him and Atkinson and/or Wennberg. Toews for a little more cash for 3 years or Atkinson for 5 more? That's an easy decision.
Worrying about signing a Milano or a Murray a Kukan or Gavrikov is simply not worthwhile. It appears that you've severely overvalued this roster. Not at all uncommon for a fan to do that. This is not a roster worth saving as a whole. It needs major adjustments. Most of the prospects you listed, plus Texier and Bemstrom will probably fall short of the mark. They're anything but sure things. Why would one be gung ho about signing Josh Anderson long term now. He's best signed to a one year arbitration deal based on his current play or traded.
Milano has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 17 games. He's a 3rd liner at best and also could be an AHL/NHL "tweener"-an organizational depth player. He's 23. He's never going to be an NHL stalwart.
Good post. And I agree. Everyone seemed to have developed brick hands Thursday night. Milano could have had 3-4 assists, easily.
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