The Jarmo Thread

[GoJackets1]

I would generally stick to the "11 in the NHL", since evaluating every prospect pool can add a lot of judgment call noise. But still, that looks pretty good.

Yeah exactly. I did my best to look at each team's guys to see if they were on the verge similarly to Abramov and Davidsson, and I think I might've counted guys I found in some cases and not others, just to average it out in case I missed some that are more comparable to Tex/Bemstrom types.

I would be very surprised if Jarmo didn't have one of the best late round drafting profiles though.

 

[Viqsi]

You know that old canard of "sometimes your best acts as a GM are the moves you don't make"?

Lessons learned from the nightmare free-agent class of 2016...

In terms of mismanagement by hockey executives, the NHL hasn’t had many recent days worse than July 1, 2016.

The latest reminder came from the New York Islanders after winger Andrew Ladd cleared waivers on Friday. GM Lou Lamoriello, who did not sign the Ladd contract, explained that the team had maximized the amount of time it could leave him in the AHL on a conditioning stint (for a knee injury) and that although Ladd was cleared to play, he simply wasn’t ready for major-league action.

[...]

Ladd, who turns 34 in December, is not quite at the halfway mark of the seven-year contract he signed in 2016. His no-trade clause opens up a bit next year, becoming a 15-team no-trade list, but the nature of his contract should make that irrelevant. Age, injury and declining production have made him a poor return for his $5.5-million annual cap hit, and because of his contract structure, a buyout would remove just six percent of his cap hit, leaving his team stuck with the remaining 94 percent.

The amazing thing is that the Ladd contract is not exceptional. He is but one member of a UFA class in 2016 characterized by age, injury, declining performance and above all overpayment.

The names are infamous: Ladd. Milan Lucic. Kyle Okposo. Loui Eriksson. Frans Nielsen. David Backes. Troy Brouwer. Matt Martin. Dale Weise. David Schlemko. James Reimer. Eleven players signed for four years or longer whose contracts have all since become liabilities to the teams that signed them.

As some may recall, we also picked up a UFA in that class - Sam Gagner, who turned out to be arguably the best value signing of that offseason.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Milan Lucic, Nikita Zaitsev, Loui Eriksson and the 31 worst contracts of the new NHL

Jarmo is responsible for signing 3 of the 31 players listed by this writer.

https://postmediaedmontonjournal2.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/worst.contract.png

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Alex Wennberg doesn't belong on that list. Kind of a joke that he's above names such as Gaborik, Clowe, Alzner, etc. But whatever.

I know people are going to bring up points and all that, and yes that does matter, but Wennberg does bring value to the team regardless of his point totals. Some of these guys are just collecting checks. I'll take Wennberg.

 

[Finner]

Milan Lucic, Nikita Zaitsev, Loui Eriksson and the 31 worst contracts of the new NHL

Jarmo is responsible for signing 3 of the 31 players listed by this writer.

https://postmediaedmontonjournal2.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/worst.contract.png

Well i cant see those 3 contracts so bad. Hortons situation was unlucky abd with that way its terrible, but it could go much better. Wenny and Dubi are overpayed but still playing in the team which has been playoffs 4years in a row. If you have two horrible contracts in your team, you look like well senators. This is just top of the iceberg, but still those two arent so bad.

 

[Viqsi]

Alex Wennberg doesn't belong on that list. Kind of a joke that he's above names such as Gaborik, Clowe, Alzner, etc. But whatever.

I know people are going to bring up points and all that, and yes that does matter, but Wennberg does bring value to the team regardless of his point totals. Some of these guys are just collecting checks. I'll take Wennberg.

That and the bulk of those contracts are buyout-proof, and Wennberg's is anything but.

 

[majormajor]

Well i cant see those 3 contracts so bad. Hortons situation was unlucky abd with that way its terrible, but it could go much better. Wenny and Dubi are overpayed but still playing in the team which has been playoffs 4years in a row. If you have two horrible contracts in your team, you look like well senators. This is just top of the iceberg, but still those two arent so bad.

Dubi gave us a few good years on his deal, which is more than you can say about that long list of UFA deals mentioned above. But he was a drag last year and won't play a game in the last two years of his deal. It's a bad contract. Wenny doesn't belong on the list, he's maybe a modestly overpaid player but nothing like the others being discussed.

I don't think you can say how good a team is by looking at how many bad deals it has. The Jackets have enough cap space they could add another, it's meaningless. Five years ago Dallas, I think just when Seguin and Benn were taking off, had a 4th line of Horcoff, Cole, and some other very overpaid player. It was a $10-$15m 4th line, and the team was fine.

 

[blahblah]

You know that old canard of "sometimes your best acts as a GM are the moves you don't make"?

As some may recall, we also picked up a UFA in that class - Sam Gagner, who turned out to be arguably the best value signing of that offseason.

I thought we've been pretty good at avoiding landmines in the UFA market, noticeable exception early on. However that was health related. Any issues I have with JK are not related to signing bad UFA contracts.

For the most part, there have only been a couple of players available in the UFA market I would have offered big money to. That high profile 28 year old signing to max term is generally one you are going to come to regret.

The two contracts I'm eyeing in the future are Savard and Jones. To a lesser extent with have Jenner and Murray, I want to see how we handle these. We also have the Foligno coming to the end of his deal, we could end up making a poor decision there.

I'm far more concerned with our own players than outside of the organization right now. Partly because we've sacrificed some assets and we have another expansion draft coming up.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Alex Wennberg doesn't belong on that list. Kind of a joke that he's above names such as Gaborik, Clowe, Alzner, etc. But whatever.

I know people are going to bring up points and all that, and yes that does matter, but Wennberg does bring value to the team regardless of his point totals. Some of these guys are just collecting checks. I'll take Wennberg.

He's a sub-30 point centerman who's good on the PK. That's fine, even valuable to most teams. It's not worth a 6 x 4.9.

 

[majormajor]

He's a sub-30 point centerman who's good on the PK. That's fine, even valuable to most teams. It's not worth a 6 x 4.9.

31 pts as of today, but leaving that aside - yeah he's probably not worth $4.9m, I could see an argument that he's only worth $2.5m, though I wouldn't let him go for less than $4m per.

In any case, it's a different category of "overpaid" than the zeros he's being compared to here.

 

[DarkandStormy]

31 pts as of today, but leaving that aside - yeah he's probably not worth $4.9m, I could see an argument that he's only worth $2.5m, though I wouldn't let him go for less than $4m per.

In any case, it's a different category of "overpaid" than the zeros he's being compared to here.

He's already put up a full season below 30 points. He's barely on pace to break that mark this season, and that's only because Torts is giving him the most ice time of his career.

Since signing the contract, he's gone:
8-27-35
2-23-25
2-6-8 (extrapolated to 8-23-31)

I don't quite get the rankings - it's a better contract than Dubinsky. I wouldn't be surprised to see either bought out this summer, though.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Milan Lucic, Nikita Zaitsev, Loui Eriksson and the 31 worst contracts of the new NHL

Jarmo is responsible for signing 3 of the 31 players listed by this writer.

https://postmediaedmontonjournal2.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/worst.contract.png

I was ready to argue as I anticipated Foligno being on the list and would have taken issue as it’s an overlay but not list worthy. However, seeing the three selected makes sense to me. I know some want to cut Wennberg a break, but since he’s a guy I’d be happy to buyout at 1/3 if we had any real center depth, placement notwithstanding the list fits him like a picture frame.

 

[Finner]

Jarmo has been in Columbus what 6years now and the team has been in playoff 4/6. Its not all about Jarmo but there must be something what he has done right. We dont have topleague roster now and we never have. I think Jarmo deserves 8/10 for his job.

 

[majormajor]

I know some want to cut Wennberg a break, but since he’s a guy I’d be happy to buyout at 1/3 if we had any real center depth, placement notwithstanding the list fits him like a picture frame.

1/3? That's it? The list frames players that you'd be happy to buy out at 5/6th. This isn't a list of merely overpaid players.

 

[BluejacketNut]

Atkinson will be on that list in a couple years. Maybe not right now, but I cant see that being a good contract in the final 3 years

 

[DarkandStormy]

Atkinson will be on that list in a couple years. Maybe not right now, but I cant see that being a good contract in the final 3 years

He doesn't have a 5v5 on goal in his last 27 games (30 games if you count playoffs), but being on the PP has boosted him this year - half his points have come on the power play.

 

[EspenK]

Remember when the jackets were routinely criticized for rushing guys to the league? Some things never change. Tex and Bemstrom should be in Cleveland. They need playing time to develop.

 

[majormajor]

Remember when the jackets were routinely criticized for rushing guys to the league? Some things never change. Tex and Bemstrom should be in Cleveland. They need playing time to develop.

I think it's something you take game by game. Texier right now absolutely should be going to Cleveland, I think they will send him because his game has fallen apart. Torts was giving him plenty of time but since he's been struggling his ice time has dropped sharply. Bemstrom has 7 pts in his last 9 games, with an even +/-. I want another shift or two per game for him, but that's no big development issue I don't think.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Through 24 games, the CBJ have scored more than 3 goals just 3 times. The average NHL team is averaging 3 goals scored per game. The CBJ are at the 2.5 goals per game level which will leave them roughly 40 goals shy of the NHL average over the course of the season. Over the past 5 seasons only 4 teams which have had bottom 10 goal scoring have qualified for the playoffs. This CBJ team will not add to that rarity.

Texier isn't the answer. Maybe at some point maybe never. Who knows about Bemstrom. Riley Nash is a plug. Wennberg is a joke. Foligno is slowing down. Boone is Boone. Nyquist is a OK pick up to date but not a game changer. Bjorkstrand is a 20-25 goals scorer but not a high end producer. PLD is a good player but not a top end scorer. Robinson is a wait and see. Atkinson is in a prolonged funk and could very well be in secular decline in year 2 of a 7 year deal. Josh Anderson is doing a Colton Gillies imitation this season.

The GM has done absolutely nothing to help jump start this fluttering offense. Yeah, he hired a guy to rearrange the deck chairs on Power Play Titanic, but it's a personnel issue not a coaching issue. Add 3 goals each for Bemstrom and Milano with increased playing time (don't forget that other's would have scored even less if Torts plays these two more) and the goal scoring problems don't materially change.

Jarmo was operating on a wing and a prayer that the offense could overcome the loss of Panarin and the others with a moderate level UFA signing and good performance of younger players with relatively weak pedigrees. Well the wing is broken and the prayers haven't been answered. If he doesn't do something to fix this, he needs to go. This is not a team with youth like Seguin, Thornton, and even Johansen-youngsers likely to break out in a big way. The "youngest team in the league" crap is a tired mantra and an excuse for losers. The prospect pool is weak and the veterans are below average. There is one guy responsible for this and he doesn't deserve the chance to rebuild this mess of a forward corps.

 

[NotWendell]

The special teams coach HAS been helpful - a good move at the moment. We're moving the puck quicker in the offensive zone and getting more side-to-side movement. This gives the defense and goalie more opportunities to be out of position.

The problem and solution is not difficult to identify. Take a look at a chart of league forwards ranked by shooting percentage. If you look at 2018-2019, throw out players with less that 20 games played. Look how far down you have to go to find the Blue Jackets. That's the primary problem. The solution is to acquire a forward with a high shooting percentage. This will also help us in shootouts.

Now for a less obvious idea. In doing research for this post, I noticed that Panarin played on the left side but shot right. It brought back memories of his OT playoff GWG vs Washington. I'd move Cam from right wing to left wing, if only temporarily, to give him a different look at the net.

 

[majormajor]

The special teams coach HAS been helpful - a good move at the moment. We're moving the puck quicker in the offensive zone and getting more side-to-side movement. This gives the defense and goalie more opportunities to be out of position.

The problem and solution is not difficult to identify. Take a look at a chart of league forwards ranked by shooting percentage. If you look at 2018-2019, throw out players with less that 20 games played. Look how far down you have to go to find the Blue Jackets. That's the primary problem. The solution is to acquire a forward with a high shooting percentage. This will also help us in shootouts.

Now for a less obvious idea. In doing research for this post, I noticed that Panarin played on the left side but shot right. It brought back memories of his OT playoff GWG vs Washington. I'd move Cam from right wing to left wing, if only temporarily, to give him a different look at the net.

That would certainly be the solution if player shooting percentage tended to stay the same week to week or even month to month. It doesn't, it's very random. We've got several players shooting half or less their average shooting percentages.

 

[majormajor]

. This is not a team with youth like Seguin, Thornton, and even Johansen-youngsers likely to break out in a big way.

So many cups those guys have won.

Wait nevermind, apparently they don't just award cups to the teams with the most 20 year old perceived blue chippers. You don't know how good players are going to be when they're just breaking into the league. Johansen and Seguin didn't turn out to be half a Kucherov, a player who had fewer points at Bemstrom's age than Bemstrom has now. I don't know how good they'll be and you don't either.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So many cups those guys have won.

Wait nevermind, apparently they don't just award cups to the teams with the most 20 year old perceived blue chippers. You don't know how good players are going to be when they're just breaking into the league. Johansen and Seguin didn't turn out to be half a Kucherov, a player who had fewer points at Bemstrom's age than Bemstrom has now. I don't know how good they'll be and you don't either.

Kucherov had 29 goals at age 21. Top offfensive players show their true abilities very early in their careers in most cases. Not too many "late bloomers" as their are with dmen and goalies.

Seguin and Thornton have had careers which no current CBJ forward will even come close to having. Book it.

Happy Thanksgiving, MM.

 

[Viqsi]

Kucherov had 29 goals at age 21.

Who's to say Bemstrom won't do something similar? He's 20. He's shown a heck of a shot in the SEL. Can't say for sure either way.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Who's to say Bemstrom won't do something similar? He's 20. He's shown a heck of a shot in the SEL. Can't say for sure either way.

Do you see Kucherov in Bemstrom?