Salary Cap: The Impending Cap Ceiling Issue

[Crede777]

Gotta keep:
Jones
Murray
Jenner
Wennberg

Probably gonna keep:
Foligno
Dubinsky
Karlsson
Savard
Korpisalo

The rest are up for discussion. There are a few that if we can dump them we should (Clarkson, Tyutin, etc.). There are a few that it seems like the FO are or were keen on moving (Hartnell, Atkinson, Rychel). Then you have Bobrovksy who was previously in the "hell no" but given his injuries I am not sure anymore.

 

[EspenK]

*BUMP*

For Espen

Discuss all RFA offer sheets here! Or not....

Too bad there is a sticky limit. I think this would be a good one.

 

[EspenK]

HockeysCap.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

Here is a look at the Jackets for next year assuming:
We keep Hartnell, Tyutin,Boll & Campbell
We spend 12 million in some form to re-sign Jenner,Jones & Murray (I split it evenly 4 a piece) 1.2 to sign Karlsson and 800k to add a 7th D man.
We only have a 22 man roster and we are 620k over assuming a 73.5mm cap (about a 3% increase)

FORWARDS (13)
Rightwing: J. Boll ($1,700,000) - C. Atkinson ($3,500,000) - D. Clarkson ($5,250,000) - B. Saad ($6,000,000)
Centre: W. Karlsson ($1,200,000) - A. Wennberg ($925,000) - G. Campbell ($1,500,000) - B. Dubinsky ($5,850,000) - B. Jenner ($4,000,000)
Leftwing: K. Rychel ($863,333) - M. Calvert ($2,200,000) - S. Hartnell ($4,750,000) - N. Foligno ($5,500,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: D. Savard ($4,250,000) - F. Tyutin ($4,500,000) - J. Johnson ($4,357,143)
Left: C. Goloubef ($750,000) - N. Name ($800,000) - S. Jones ($4,000,000) - R. Murray ($4,000,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
S. Bobrovsky ($7,425,000) - C. McElhinney ($800,000)

AHL BURIED
J. Korpisalo ($0)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
NHL Salary Cap: $73500000
Cap Hit: $74,120,476
Cap Space: $-620,476

My conclusion is at a minimum we have to buy out Boll & Campbell
Somehow get rid of either Hartnell or preferably Tyutin with little or none retained

We could make up the 620k by slightly decreasing the RFA signing amounts.

Its all going to come down to if Jarmo can convince the 3 key rfa's to take reasonable deals.

If I'm Murray and we give Jones 8 years at 6 mill and offer me 2-2.5 I'm pissed and my attitude/play is probably going to suffer.

You offer Jenner 2-3 and he is within shouting distance of Saad in points, again not a happy camper.

 

[major major]

Gotta keep:
Jones
Murray
Jenner
Wennberg

Probably gonna keep:
Foligno
Dubinsky
Karlsson
Savard
Korpisalo

The rest are up for discussion. There are a few that if we can dump them we should (Clarkson, Tyutin, etc.). There are a few that it seems like the FO are or were keen on moving (Hartnell, Atkinson, Rychel). Then you have Bobrovksy who was previously in the "hell no" but given his injuries I am not sure anymore.

I enjoy this because we'll all have very different lists. There's no way Karlsson is ahead of Rychel, Atkinson, or Saad (did you forget him?) on my Jackets-keep list.

The top group is the same though.

Going to keep
Murray-Jones

Wennberg
Jenner
Saad

Hopefully keep
Foligno
Dubinsky
Savard
Korpisalo

Wait and See
Atkinson
Rychel
JJ
Karlsson
Bobrovsky
Calvert
Goloubef

Probably on the outs
Tyutin
Hartnell
Boll, Clarkson, Campbell...
Prout (please Jarmo!)

 

[EspenK]

What is the time line on the keeps and outs? Next year? 2-3?

 

[db2011]

Too bad there is a sticky limit. I think this would be a good one.

Sticky Limit would make a good band name

(channelling DSL, who is definitely on the "keep" list)

 

[Jackets Woodchuck]

Could the prospect thread be merged with the affiliate thread, freeing up a sticky for this?

 

[CBJx614]

Its all going to come down to if Jarmo can convince the 3 key rfa's to take reasonable deals.

If I'm Murray and we give Jones 8 years at 6 mill and offer me 2-2.5 I'm pissed and my attitude/play is probably going to suffer.

You offer Jenner 2-3 and he is within shouting distance of Saad in points, again not a happy camper.

Exactly why its better to do bridge deals.

Its better for the team long term to have those players locked up yes, but by doing bridge deals youre giving yourself more time to make moves to make sure you keep the players you want. You want to be paid like Saad, give us 2 more years of that same production and in your third year we'll start talking about long term.

And the reason you mentioned is why Murray and Jones will likely both get bridge deals, while Jenner is the likely long term signee. Its not necessarily saving the jackets $$, but its locking up a core player long term.



My core

Murray
Jones
Jenner
Wennberg
Saad

Not likely moved

Foligno
Dubinsky
Savard
Rychel

Likely to be traded within the next 2-4 years

everyone else

 

[major major]

If I'm Murray and we give Jones 8 years at 6 mill and offer me 2-2.5 I'm pissed and my attitude/play is probably going to suffer.
.

If Murray wanted to sign long-term at $4-$5m I would do it. You can give him the option of that or a low-dollar bridge deal, and it's on him if he prefers to go for the lower $.

Of course if they both go long term, then we have absolutely no choice but to bounce Hartnell or Tyutin.

You offer Jenner 2-3 and he is within shouting distance of Saad in points, again not a happy camper.

I was thinking this too, but Saad has roughly twice as much career production as Jenner. A bridge is a way of saying to Jenner "keep it up and we'll pay you". He doesn't have Saad's track record yet.

 

[major major]

Exactly why its better to do bridge deals.

Its better for the team long term to have those players locked up yes, but by doing bridge deals youre giving yourself more time to make moves to make sure you keep the players you want. You want to be paid like Saad, give us 2 more years of that same production and in your third year we'll start talking about long term.

And the reason you mentioned is why Murray and Jones will likely both get bridge deals, while Jenner is the likely long term signee. Its not necessarily saving the jackets $$, but its locking up a core player long term.

How much better do you think Jenner is going to get? How much better do you think Murray and Jones are going to get? I think the latter pair, in addition to being more valuable players right now, have higher upside than Jenner. That's the risk you have to watch out for: what if you bridge a guy and he explodes and you have to pay him $9m a year? Murray and Jones have that upside, I don't think Jenner does.

The best value deals in the NHL belong to the $4m D-men: John Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, etc*... Compare that to Subban's $9m. The difference? Subban got the bridge deal.

Our D have better pedigrees than the $4m club, so they will have to be paid a bit more, but it's the same principle in play.

*Also consider Faulk and Brodie's contracts.

but by doing bridge deals youre giving yourself more time to make moves to make sure you keep the players you want.

I just wanted to flag this line. I'm not sure what you mean, but I'm skeptical that we'll have more financial flexibility in any of the coming years. Right now the team isn't contending and they can prioritize long term. That's probably not the case in a few years, when they have to balance trying to lock up the young stars with keeping vets to win immediately.

 

[EspenK]

How much better do you think Jenner is going to get? How much better do you think Murray and Jones are going to get? I think the latter pair, in addition to being more valuable players right now, have higher upside than Jenner. That's the risk you have to watch out for: what if you bridge a guy and he explodes and you have to pay him $9m a year? Murray and Jones have that upside, I don't think Jenner does.

The best value deals in the NHL belong to the $4m D-men: John Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, etc*... Compare that to Subban's $9m. The difference? Subban got the bridge deal.

Our D have better pedigrees than the $4m club, so they will have to be paid a bit more, but it's the same principle in play.

*Also consider Faulk and Brodie's contracts.



I just wanted to flag this line. I'm not sure what you mean, but I'm skeptical that we'll have more financial flexibility in any of the coming years. Right now the team isn't contending and they can prioritize long term. That's probably not the case in a few years, when they have to balance trying to lock up the young stars with keeping vets to win immediately.

I agree that Jarmo has to be careful with Jenner. He is a good, hard nosed player who is having, for him, a breakout season. If he keeps up the pace he will have 27-21-48. Not bad but not superstar level. Cam with nearly identical career numbers signed for 3 yrs at 3.5. I guess the strategy is to bridge him 2.5-3.0 for 2 years. I haven't figured out when he is eligible for UFA but I'll assume he will be at least one year away in 2 years. Then if he is producing 50-60 pts a year he gets paid more for a longer term.

The more I think about your point about risk with Jones and Murray I'm more inclined to think the Jackets have to free up cap space and sign them longer term. Get rid of Tyutin, even if we get a 3rd or something for him. Buy out Boll and Campbell that frees up 2 mill in cap space for the next 2 years.

The above with Jenner @ 3 would allow Murray & Jones to be signed for 6 a year for as long as Jarmo & they want to go. Add in a couple of cheap D and another cheap F and we're at 72 mill. Doable and we would have a long term core signed consisting of
Murray
Jones
Saad
Foligno
Dubinsky
Savard

Hartnell still is a wild card in this. If we trade him for picks & prospects it will hurt in the short term but if we do it gives us plenty of cap room to lock up young core guys for a long time and provide flexibility with the cap. Unfortunately in today's NHL cap considerations are a major factor.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Sticky Limit would make a good band name

(channelling DSL, who is definitely on the "keep" list)

Nice. I tip my cap to you.

And if the thread stays active, people will find it, sticky or no.

 

[cslebn]

I love Jenner as much as everyone else, but there is no way he's a $4M right based on RFA status. If he were signing a UFA contract based on his Prod he'd probably be a $5M player but he's not UFA.

I posted the below in the Intriguing Info thread when we were discussing cap:

Derek Stepan who played 1C at the time for the NYR (who were competing for the cup) received basically a 3M/yr bridge.

Stepan's stats to date were:
212 GP, 56 G, 84 A, 140 PTS. That's .26 g/gm, .40 A/gm, and .66 pt/gm

Jenner to date (including this year) is:
150 gp, 41 G, 31A 72 PTS. That's .27 g/gm, .21 A/gm, and .48 pt/gm

bottom line, Stepan was a lot more productive. This is the difference between a 54 pts player and a 40 pts player.

Even if you count for the cap change 64.3M to 71.4M, that's an 11% increase. 11% * 3M is still only 3.33M. Then pro-rate that based on production and boom, you are closer to 2.5M for a bridge deal (probably really 2.42M but hey). Like I said, Buying UFA years is wholly different story.

Add in other similar RFA players that were signed in 2015:
Galyenchuk 2 yrs - 2.8 AAV
Zibanejad - 2 yrs - 2.625 AAV
Hoffman - 1 yr - 2M AAV (remains RFA)
Silfverberg - 4 yrs - 3.75 AAV (bought UFA years)
Nelson - 3 yr - 2.5M
Toffoli - 2 yrs - 3.25 AAV
Pearson - 2 yrs - 1.4 AAV

Nelson for example before his RFA Bridge had 154 GP with .22 g/gm, .22 a/gm and .44 g/gm. Very close to where Jenner is today.

On the D men, yeah if you could lock them up on a 4x4 contract. That would probably be pretty sweet (probably look at Josi and Klingberg for comps).

 

[major major]

would allow Murray & Jones to be signed for 6 a year

I get the appeal of signing them both to the same deal, but it shouldn't take $6m a year to lock up Murray to a 6-8 year deal. Maybe not even $5m.

 

[Light the Lamp]

I get the appeal of signing them both to the same deal, but it shouldn't take $6m a year to lock up Murray. Maybe not even $5m.

Murray's contract is risky from the point of games played vs. IR. He's only played a half-season. Make it through April and then consider the term. I think CBJ offer a two year contract to Murray.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Hartnell is probably gone.

Tyutin may also join him if Jarmo can find a team to take him.

Boll or Campbell buyout is likely.

They'll have the space next year. They might not be able to make a big splash in FA, but they can re-sign the RFAs. Probably time to just call a couple guys up on ELC's if they can move out Hartnell, Tyutin, etc.

 

[EspenK]

I get the appeal of signing them both to the same deal, but it shouldn't take $6m a year to lock up Murray to a 6-8 year deal. Maybe not even $5m.

I think the issue is because they are both getting new deals this year you have to be a bit careful. A year apart and it is a different ball game. In my mind the best thing to do is make them as close as possible in dollars and term. Jones at 6 and Murray at 5.5 nobody is going to complain. Jones at 6 and Murray at say 4.5 now that is a problem imo. Murray = Savard ? Unless Murray is a very special person sooner or later that will gnaw at him. Jarmo is walking a tightrope here imo.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I think they can trade Hartnell, Tyutin (with salary retained), and Campbell. We can maybe get something good for Hartnell. We won't get much for Tyutin, and we won't get much for Campbell. I only think we can trade Campbell because a team like Florida or another young ish team can use veteran experience for a playoff push.

 

[major major]

I think the issue is because they are both getting new deals this year you have to be a bit careful. A year apart and it is a different ball game. In my mind the best thing to do is make them as close as possible in dollars and term. Jones at 6 and Murray at 5.5 nobody is going to complain. Jones at 6 and Murray at say 4.5 now that is a problem imo. Murray = Savard ? Unless Murray is a very special person sooner or later that will gnaw at him. Jarmo is walking a tightrope here imo.

Murray hasn't done enough to merit more than a few million a year. I would offer him more than that, but it's entirely based on potential, and if he wants to take the risk and go for a bridge deal instead, in an effort to prove himself, that's up to him. I don't think he could question the fact that Jones is more established at the moment, and they wouldn't be offered the same $ if long term deals were tendered now.

I'm not worried about players getting paid different amounts down the line either. Is Weber twice as good as Josi? I think players understand how it works.

 

[major major]

If I'm Jarmo, these are the deals I'm offering our RFA's. These aren't necessarily opening offers, but guidelines for final deals that you can budge at most 10%, if need be:

Jones - $5.5m for 8 years.

Murray - $4.5m for 6 years.

Jenner - $3.25m for a two year bridge.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Interesting point regarding Murray. I guess it depends on how risk-averse he is

 

[EspenK]

If I'm Jarmo, these are the deals I'm offering our RFA's. These aren't necessarily opening offers, but guidelines for final deals that you can budge at most 10%, if need be:

Jones - $5.5m for 8 years.

Murray - $4.5m for 6 years.

Jenner - $3.25m for a two year bridge.

So you're saying you would go as high as 6 for Jones and 5 for Murray? I guess that makes sense. If I'm Jones I'm not taking that for 8 years. I'd be more inclined to do 6. Still set for life but my bigger payday gets here 2 years sooner.

Do we know anything about the agents for these guys?

Edit: Murray is with a guy named Rick Valette & Jones is with CAA.

 

[major major]

If I'm Jones I'm not taking that for 8 years. I'd be more inclined to do 6. Still set for life but my bigger payday gets here 2 years sooner.

Cutting out those 2 UFA years is a big difference for the Jackets. I don't see 5.5x8 and 5.5x6 as interchangeable.

 

[EspenK]

Cutting out those 2 UFA years is a big difference for the Jackets. I don't see 5.5x8 and 5.5x6 as interchangeable.

and the opposite for Jones and his agent. Do we know when he is eligible for UFA? I'll take a look a the CBA. I'm guessing he's got 4 years after this. Term could be the sticking point.


Edit: By my reading both Jones and Murray have 4 years to UFA.

 

[Xoggz22]

Not that I would expect it, but Jones, Murray and Jenner could all be offered one year deals and then he arbitration eligible. I'm one in favor of bridge deals as it buys more time to know where these guys fit. Yes, we risk paying more on their next deal but the cap won't remain flat forever which also provides some freedom. JJ and Tyutin are off the books in two years which frees the money for Jones and Murray regardless. I think of PK Subban when it comes to bridge deals. He was expected to be a top pair guy long term and proved it. He got paid.

We have no one that should command more than $2.5-3.0 on bridge deals. Just my opinion. After two years you'll know if Werenski will be an impact player and where Jones and Murray are. You may also be able to move Hartnell then or before and possibly Clarkson. I simply don't were this year as the problem unless bridge deals are off the table. Adding a top young center would create the challenges. Let's see what Wennberg turns into next year. That's a big issue too.