Salary Cap: The Impending Cap Ceiling Issue

[major major]

Arace has had that bitter tone for years now. It's always seemed to me to be more ingrained rather than in response to anything recent in particular.

A few minor corrections - Rielly's deal is $5m on average, not $6m. $22m total for D is not exceptionally high. And Dubinsky did not produce 48 pts as a top-line center. He only played 27 games (one third of the season) as #1C and in that time had 21 pts, which is in fact good value.

As a major point - giving the young players time to take a step is exactly what they should do. The roster has a core of pre-prime players at every position. It's understandable to feel impatient, and it's Arace's job to complain, but it's Jarmo's job to resist impatience and give the kids time to grow. To stick with the brick metaphor, if you don't give the mortar time to dry, you'll be the fool who let the walls of the Hagia Sophia collapse.

Bob, Dubi, Foligno, Savard, we knew Clarkson was gonna suck but him too, Tyutin, etc.

My point is that there's a lot of blame to go around, but at the end of the day it's those guys who are on the ice and aren't cutting it. Yeah, it makes sense that you want to earn as much money as you can, but there also needs to be an element of pride to your work.

I think it's unwarranted to lump all those guys together and say they don't take pride in their work. I doubt that's true for any them.

 

[theD86]

There are teams is worse cap issues than the Jackets. It'll work it's self out. I'm not worried.

 

[Fro]

looking at LA's cap issues, and they're as bad as ours...but then I think, well, they have two cups to show for it...and well....

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

There will be a lot of roster turnover over the next 2-3 seasons, which is why I am not too worried about our cap issues. We will be losing guys like Bourque, Boll, Campbell, Tyutin, etc. over the course of the next 3 seasons. Really the only player with a problem contract that will be here beyond that timeframe is Clarkson.

 

[JacketsDavid]

As others have alluded to there are many other teams in likely worst situations than us. But the problem is not many of those teams are buried at the bottom of the standing on a consistent basis.
If you're a bad team you'd like to have cap room to get better.
We're bad and have little cap room - which is the problem, not so much the cap room.

 

[Xoggz22]

Call me a homer but I simply don't see this team as bad as some of you think it is. The Cap situation may not be ideal but it is not impossible to manage. It all comes down to how bad you feel the players and team structure are in relation to the Cap. Personally I don't feel the team is devoid of talent and the system should be strong. There are definitely holes... Bottom D pair, 45th line... But I think they are much deeper with young talent and the contacts to be shed will be an improvement. There is depth on the farm to grow too.

That said, I'm not blind too think there are holes and concerns. Especially with some contacts. However, I believe betty strongly that Foligno bounces back and the defense improves dramatically with a healthy top4. Injuries still hurt this team if they happen and adding a big contract at the deadline would be tough as out looks right now.

I'm going to hold onto my optimism as it may be all I have to get through the off season.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Really the only player with a problem contract that will be here beyond that timeframe is Clarkson.

And it's "only" four more years.

 

[EspenK]

I'm going to hold onto my optimism as it may be all I have to get through the off season.

Don't forget the winning of a top 3 spot on Saturday!

 

[Viqsi]

There will be a lot of roster turnover over the next 2-3 seasons, which is why I am not too worried about our cap issues. We will be losing guys like Bourque, Boll, Campbell, Tyutin, etc. over the course of the next 3 seasons. Really the only player with a problem contract that will be here beyond that timeframe is Clarkson.

Pretty much this. My one and only concern, at this point, is this coming season. Beyond that, it should get much, much easier.

Of course, that could change if we do something boneheaded in the summer of 2017, but I don't think that's in the cards. At least, I sure as heck hope not.

* * *​

Don't forget the winning of a top 3 spot on Saturday!

I've always been skeptical w/r/t the chances no matter what our situation, but if it happened that would certainly help.

 

[We Want Ten]

Pretty much this. My one and only concern, at this point, is this coming season. Beyond that, it should get much, much easier.

Of course, that could change if we do something boneheaded in the summer of 2017, but I don't think that's in the cards. At least, I sure as heck hope not.

* * *​

I've always been skeptical w/r/t the chances no matter what our situation, but if it happened that would certainly help.

No way.... lol.

 

[Viqsi]

No way.... lol.

I know that may come as a shock, as I probably haven't been all that transparent about it...

 

[EspenK]

So cap hell is upon us. Samkow asked in one of the draft threads How does Jarmo free cap space to sign Jones? Answer is it is not easy.

Big problem seems to be as one of talking heads (Dreger, I think) indicated his agents were leaning to going to July 1 to see what top UFA's were commanding and of course seeing if an offer sheet would pop up.

By my calculations(with an assist from general fanager), even with buying out Tyutin, Boll & Campbell signing Jones at 6 doesn't quite work. We could go to 5.7425 and hit 73 mill on the nose.

Or at least I thought. That was with a 12 F roster. I believe we will go with 13 but 12 won't work.

Buying out Hartnell saves $4.167 over the deal and saves 3.6 and 3.1 against the cap for each of the next 2 years. Problem solved. Or we could trade him for a bag of pucks (picks & prospects) or trade him and retain a couple mill or so.

I haven't tried to figure out who might be a trading partner or who might offer sheet him.

Timing is a big issue. If a deal for Tyutin and/or Hartnell isn't done by Monday I think Jarmo has to take the plunge on 3 buyouts.

 

[blahblah]

So cap hell is upon us. Samkow asked in one of the draft threads How does Jarmo free cap space to sign Jones? Answer is it is not easy.

No, it's on us in a week. If we buy out Tyutin, we should be ok with that move alone.
As it stands now we can pay Jones 5.5, that has to be getting close to the number already. There are no other contracts we need to dead with.

Let's not be overly dramatic, when you might not even need to move any cap space at all. It would be smart to move some, to deal with injuries and deal with rookies making the team, but we're hardly in a dangerous cap position.

Unless there is an issue with their math we're at $67,557,143 in cap space right now. That's almost 5.5 million in cap space before a Tyutin buyout. I have no idea where you are coming up with your number with a Tyutin buyout.

Columbus Blue Jackets 20 44 $67,557,143 $5,442,857 $5,442,857

On a side note he can go over by 10%, there is no deadline and he can still match an off sheet.

 

[SuperGenius]

Do you really think Jones gets 6m immediately? I see a deal that maybe works its way up to 6m, but it's not going to be 6m in 2016-17 IMO.

 

[major major]

If Tyutin isn't bought out I'm convinced it's because ownership vetoes it. I think it's understood he can't be moved even with half retention. Buffalo was the closest option and it never really made sense to them, and now they have Kulikov.

** One final consideration, and this is something that I would strongly consider if I was GM, is that stretching out 1/3 of the cap-hit over twice the length of the contract is a really bad idea for a team that is not good now but might be very very good in a couple years. You think our cap situation is bad now? Wait until we're in win now mode and we're simultaneously trying to lock up guys like Werenski and Bjorkstrand AND keep all the pieces to win now. This year we can lose a win now piece like JJ and it doesn't matter that much.

Though the FO still would have to have some plan for Tyutin's NMC - either a plan to move him pre-expansion draft (the next buyout window is after the expansion draft), or a surety that he will waive. The idea that the FO might allow a situation where they protect Tyutin and let Savard go is too far fetched - Savard is much harder to replace than Atkinson or any other player that might seriously be exposed.

 

[EspenK]

2016-17

1 Clarkson 5.25
2 Jenner 2.9
3 Foligno 5.5
4 Calvert 2.2
5 Atkinson 3.5
6 Dubinsky 5.85
7 Hartnell 4.75
8 Saad 6.00
9 Wennberg 0.96
10 Bjorkstrand 0.6558
11 Karlsson 1.2
12 Boll 1.7
13 Campbell 1.5
Forwards
41.9658

Murray 2.825
Prout 1.5625
Jones
Johnson 4.375
Tyutin 4.5
Savard 4.5
Golo 0.75
Werenski 1




Defense Subtotal 19.5125


Goalie 8.2


Total 69.6783

Cap 73

Available 3.3217

So unless we can sign Jones for small $ we have to do something. With certainty not wait to see what happens over the summer.

 

[Xoggz22]

2016-17

1 Clarkson 5.25
2 Jenner 2.9
3 Foligno 5.5
4 Calvert 2.2
5 Atkinson 3.5
6 Dubinsky 5.85
7 Hartnell 4.75
8 Saad 6.00
9 Wennberg 0.96
10 Bjorkstrand 0.6558
11 Karlsson 1.2
12 Boll 1.7
13 Campbell 1.5
Forwards
41.9658

Murray 2.825
Prout 1.5625
Jones
Johnson 4.375
Tyutin 4.5
Savard 4.5
Golo 0.75
Werenski 1




Defense Subtotal 19.5125


Goalie 8.2


Total 69.6783

Cap 73

Available 3.3217

So unless we can sign Jones for small $ we have to do something. With certainty not wait to see what happens over the summer.

Except Karlsson is $1M and Werenski and Bjork aren't on the roster. They may very well be in September but to sign Jones this money is currently available. So approximately $5.4M in Cap room currently.

Regardless, they need to shave some salary and a buyout of Tyutin is the most likely at this point.

 

[blahblah]

Regardless, they need to shave some salary and a buyout of Tyutin is the most likely at this point.

We're determined to be drama queens. We are not in a cap crisis. Now that isn't to say that ownership might want to shed some payroll, but there is no evidence of that to this point.

Now if things still look like this on July 6th, then we can start to scratch our heads a little.

The is just some premature paranoia. I couldn't even imagine what some of our fans would do if they had to deal with Chicago's cap situation every offseason. They have real issues they need to address and they constantly end up losing valuable players in the process.

He didn't dispute my numbers he just decided to give people spots and assume we'd start the season with 8 D.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

the worst part of buying out Tyutin is the 1.4 million that count against the cap in 2 years when his contract should have been off the books anyway. It creates a short term fix of saving 3.2 million this year and 2.5 next year.

 

[EspenK]

We're determined to be drama queens. We are not in a cap crisis. Now that isn't to say that ownership might want to shed some payroll, but there is no evidence of that to this point.

Now if things still look like this on July 6th, then we can start to scratch our heads a little.

The is just some premature paranoia. I couldn't even imagine what some of our fans would do if they had to deal with Chicago's cap situation every off season. They have real issues they need to address and they constantly end up losing valuable players in the process.

He didn't dispute my numbers he just decided to give people spots and assume we'd start the season with 8 D.

As a drama queen I have to say you have your head stuck in the sand, to be polite about it.If you take the time to think about the cap situation and add some salary to fill out the roster for the season you will find out that we are indeed in cap hell as of now. Maybe not technically until Friday but logically we are there. If Jones was going to be easy to sign don't you think it would be done by now? As I mentioned before one of the talking heads indicated his agents said not before July 1 which to me means they are looking to maximize his deal.

The buyout window closes in 5 days. After that it is trade Tyutin if you can or eat his 4.5 million cap hit for next season. Decision time is now not after July 1.

Boll and Campbell can be sent to the AHL with about the same cap savings as a buyout provides but why keep them? Especially Boll.

So if we ignore the cap situation now and do nothing we will have 4.5 mill to give to Jones. And no roster spot to give to Werenski or a 14th F. Maybe you and others are right that we can dump cap over the summer but maybe not. I believe the prudent thing to do is dump as much as we can now and have a bit of flexibility rather than have to make panic moves to be able to match a Jones offer sheet.

 

[EspenK]

Do you really think Jones gets 6m immediately? I see a deal that maybe works its way up to 6m, but it's not going to be 6m in 2016-17 IMO.

Should he? Probably not but in this NHL maybe. Morgan Reilly got 5 mill.

Jones is worth at least that much and given what the Jackets expect from him an AAV of 6 is not out of the question imo. Especially if the Jackets want max term.

 

[blahblah]

As a drama queen I have to say you have your head stuck in the sand, to be polite about it.If you take the time to think about the cap situation and add some salary to fill out the roster for the season you will find out that we are indeed in cap hell as of now.

Don't be silly. Buy out Tyutin or trade JJ or Savard. Done. See, easy. I think you would have a heart attack as a Hawks fan.

These are your options.

1. Jones on a bridge deal.
2. Buy out Tyutin - or another player or two
3. Move a contract, such as Hartnell. You might have to keep some of that salary. You might even find someone interested in Prout.

So either sign Jones for less, buy someone out, or make a trade. There are options abound.

I don't see us starting the season with 8 D-Men, so you might see a Golo moved or exposed to waivers.

This isn't going to be remotely difficult, even if the final decision causes some discomfort.

You, and others, are going to be paranoid until something gets done. Having said that something will get done. Jones will be matched if it comes to that and we'll find a way to get under the cap.

This has the easiest solutions to "cap hell" that I've ever seen in my life. This is more like "Man I have to spend the weekend entertaining the mother-in-law" "cap hell".

Now having said that, we probably want to clear a little more space to cover injuries if we can. I don't see us wanting to be right up on the 73 million, that is where the real cap management will come into play. The stuff you are talking about is something that any AGM can take care of while negotiating on the can.

I'm sure the FO isn't like "Oh hey, you know we might have a cap issue coming up. I didn't see that right until after the draft. Silly me.". They already have a plan along with contingencies. They are already working on trying to deal with some of these NMC's as well and have been for months.

My only issue is that they seem to want to squeeze every last bit of value out of these deals, I'm more pragmatic. If you get 80% or more of what you think value is, go for it. That 20% isn't likely to impact your team in any meaningful way.

 

[Jackets16]

We will be able to shed the salary we need to. We may have to keep some salary and we may not be able to get anything good in return, but that is fine. We don't need to get anything in return. We already have a ton of good prospects. I'd be trying to trade a couple of guys for some future draft picks. Even if we have to add one of our lesser prospects to do it. The key is keeping Jones and not keeping some lower level prospect or some overpriced older player.

 

[DarkandStormy]

There's not quite $5.7m in cap space without Jones. This is shaping up to be a terrible summer already.

 

[theD86]

Portzline was on the radio and said he expects Hartnell, Boll, & Toots to be gone "fairly soon."