The Impact of Losing Andrew Copp

[Run the Jewels]

First off, hat tip to @datsyukfan for calling this out. I wanted to create a new thread both to bring it to the forefront, but also put some numbers around the claim, which seems spot on. Here are the splits from when Todd McLellan took over, both with and without Copp in the lineup. I didn't include the Toronto game on Dec 27 as McLellan was named coach earlier that day and didn't have the chance to coach the team prior to that game.

Red Wings record with McLellan + Copp in the lineup

• 15 wins, 2 OTL, 4 losses
• 1.52 points per game

This stretch included wins against Washington, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Florida, Tampa, Los Angeles, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.

Red Wings record with McLellan but without Copp in the lineup

• 5 wins, 0 OTL, 11 losses
• 0.63 points per game

The only wins were against Anaheim, Buffalo, Vegas (Knights coming off a back to back) and Utah.

I'm not sure how much 'credit' to give Copp for the strong start under McLellan - there could be a new coach bounce that played a role in the hot start- but I'd imagine Copp's absence is playing a role in the poor performance since his injury. The bad news is he's out for the season.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

I've stayed saying this. Andrew Copp is crucial to this team. Last man off the ice every night, seems to be the leader of the room. The contract is slightly high, but the defensive play and intangibles make up for that.

 

[deca guard]

remember how bowman turned yzerman into a two way center . now yzerman via copp is developing kasper then dannyson into two way centers . hes building the YZER'FENCE :
- big long reached dmen dominate territory
- two way centers shadow opponant stars
- spending early pix on goalies in effort to lock it down
- draft wingers later as you can find gems then

 

[GMR]

If losing Andrew Copp is a death blow, that tells you how devoid of talent this team is.

The dude is a 3rd line center on pretty much every NHL team.

 

[MBauer]

We've been about as fortunate as a team can ask for when it comes to injuries this season, if they can't overcome losing a 3c for a quarter of the season , they just aren't a playoff caliber team.

I think there was certainly a temporary boost when McLellan took over, winning some games they had no business winning, Larkin/Raymond cooling off is also a much bigger factor in the losing streak than Copp being out.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

if mclellan had been the coach all year we'd be first in the division

if lalonde had been the coach all year we'd be drafting first overall

crazy

 

[Run the Jewels]

If losing Andrew Copp is a death blow, that tells you how devoid of talent this team is.

The dude is a 3rd line center on pretty much every NHL team.

Thanks for adding to the conversation. Amazing insight.

 

[RED WINGS STOMP]

Here's the thing, this is the third year in a row where a late Feb injury is to blame for a March collapse. Two years ago, Ras got injured, and the excuses from that came. Last year Larkin and we all had excuses again. Now it's Copp.

I am done with this line of excuse making. The Red Wings have to be better than this, one injury can't cause a total downward spiral.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

i’m thinking more correlation than causation on this one. I don’t think the McClellan Copp combo is what magically turned the wings into a wagon and the split turned them into a lottery team. Does losing copp hurt the C depth? absolutely. But not even close enough to have them be this bad.

 

[Holden Caufield]

I don’t put too much stock in it. We had a really prolonged ‘new coach’ bump under McLellan. Have since regressed to the median.

Coincidentally the timing was the exact same as Copp’s injury.

There is a similar massive win/loss disparity over the last few years when Rasmussen is out with injury.

I personally don’t think Copp and Rasmussen are the deciding factors in wins or losses. But I guess on a larger scale it could reflect the lack of overall depth.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Here's the thing, this is the third year in a row where a late Feb injury is to blame for a March collapse. Two years ago, Ras got injured, and the excuses from that came. Last year Larkin and we all had excuses again. Now it's Copp.

I am done with this line of excuse making. The Red Wings have to be better than this, one injury can't cause a total downward spiral.

Copp provides legit NHL caliber center depth. Ras...does not.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don’t put too much stock in it. We had a really prolonged ‘new coach’ bump under McLellan. Have since regressed to the median.

Coincidentally the timing was the exact same as Copp’s injury.

There is a similar massive win/loss disparity over the last few years when Rasmussen is out with injury.

I personally don’t think Copp and Rasmussen are the deciding factors in wins or losses. But I guess on a larger scale it could reflect the lack of overall depth.

It's pretty obvious that Lalonde had nothing over the final 5 or so months of coaching this team. Like the players on the team had no idea what they were supposed to do towards the end.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

I just replied about this in the other thread before I saw this one. But there is definitely some correlation there with how bad we've been since. The production may have not been there but he still contributes in other ways. I won't say it's the main reason we've been horrible the last month, but do I think we have another win or three in that span if he's in the lineup? Yes.

There was also a few games there coming out of the break where we pretty much outplayed the other team but lost to a goalie standing on his head or a one stupid mistake here and there. But the last two weeks have looked as bad as March of last year.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I think the biggest impact of losing Copp is the ability to win faceoffs.

Compher's not great at it and Larkin seems to be hot and cold lately.

 

[Winger98]

I think the biggest impact of losing Copp is the ability to win faceoffs.

Compher's not great at it and Larkin seems to be hot and cold lately.

well, against Ottawa Larkin was going against Giroux a lot. That's a hard win for any one. Looking at the few games before that, and Larkin's been around or above 50% every game. He won 90% against Washington.

 

[GMR]

Thanks for adding to the conversation. Amazing insight.

Come off it. Copp is an overpaid sieve. He’s only important to this team’s depth because they have the depth of an AHL roster.

 

[DamonDRW]

we were pretty much in all of the games we lost. a couple of good defensive plays or a couple of goals here and there might be the reason for loosing, for example, two less games. Which basically means we would still be in the wc2 race.

 

[DanielMarois]

Or, like last year's temporary boost, the goaltending was overperforming and when it came back down it exposed the team for what it truly was. It has very little do with a C who has 23 pts in 56 games.

 

[FissionFire]

Copp getting hurt didn’t help but let’s not forget our schedule was always rough in the second half. Struggling was sort of expected.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Or, like last year's temporary boost, the goaltending was overperforming and when it came back down it exposed the team for what it truly was. It has very little do with a C who has 23 pts in 56 games.

You may be correct, but it's not clear that you are. Last season Husso and Reimer had horrific quality start stats. Husso was .333 and Reimer was .450. Goaltending has actually been better this year although Lyon is still far too unreliable.

This season Talbot and Mrazek have raised the bar, with quality start stats of .543 and .600 respectively. Mrazek is the only one who reaches the 'good' threshold, and only just barely. Talbot is average. Every other goaltender has been pretty crappy.

So in looking at the data, I'm having trouble finding anything that suggests goaltending elevated Detroit's performance from Dec 29, 2024 - Feb 22, 2025. Over those games, the Red Wings averaged .906 save percentage, which is above the league average, but not by much (.900). So it's not like the team was getting maginificent goaltending. It was about what you would expect with average goaltending, which is probably in line with expectations when a new coach comes in and installs systems that allow the team to perform better from a defensive shape standpoint.

But what happens when you lose your very limited center depth? Save percentage drops to .881 from Feb 23 - Mar 27. Mrazek has actually been good over this stretch, with two shutouts and one .903 SV% in his 5 starts. Goaltending is clearly better this season, although it's clearly not a strength.

So we're getting better goaltending (71 starts last year from guys who are mostly incapable of producing an average number of quality starts compared to 40 starts from guys who are average or a bit above this season). but the goaltending save percentage is dropping since Copp exited the lineup. That likely suggests the goalies are facing more difficult shots. As someone else pointed out, we also went through a poor stretch of play last season when Larkin was out of the lineup. We simply don't have the depth at center, and hopefully Kasper can get up to speed fairly quickly.

 

[Gniwder]

If losing Andrew Copp is a death blow, that tells you how devoid of talent this team is.

The dude is a 3rd line center on pretty much every NHL team.

This is the root of the problem. Despite being a 3C, he played 2C and any team that loses their 2 C midseason has a tough road ahead of them.

We've been about as fortunate as a team can ask for when it comes to injuries this season, if they can't overcome losing a 3c for a quarter of the season , they just aren't a playoff caliber team.

I think there was certainly a temporary boost when McLellan took over, winning some games they had no business winning, Larkin/Raymond cooling off is also a much bigger factor in the losing streak than Copp being out.

Copp was playing 2C, and Todd dropped Kasper from 1LW to 2C to fill the void. Thaht's when the first line cooled down.

Come off it. Copp is an overpaid sieve. He’s only important to this team’s depth because they have the depth of an AHL roster.

Yup, in fact 3 AHLers and Smith/Holl played the last game.


I hate Copp's contract, but I liked the way he played for Todd as opposed to Fester/Blash. He's been outplaying Compher all season, even now on IR, lol. Having an overpaid 3C playing 2C isn't ideal roster structure, but it was looking good enough to get into the playoffs. I was even rooting for him, which is why he probably got injured, and the reason why we can't have good things. Next season I promise to mock him with every post so that he stays healthy.

The lack of depth happened because Stevie signed Watson, Tank, and Motte this summer. He's got to do better if he wants to see the playoffs next season.

 

[better Red than Dead]

Had Copp not gotten injured we wouldn’t know that Marco Kasper is developing into a second line center, worse case 3rd line center and Copp replacement right before our eyes

 

[SirloinUB]

Copp is an underrated center. He’s not an ideal 2C but he can hold it down with solid results.

He’s the kind of Swiss Army knife that can move up and down your lineup. He also does the little things that make life easier for his linemates.

Solid player and we’re better with him in the lineup.

Also people bitch about the contract but I’m not even sure he is overpaid

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

First off, hat tip to @datsyukfan for calling this out. I wanted to create a new thread both to bring it to the forefront, but also put some numbers around the claim, which seems spot on. Here are the splits from when Todd McLellan took over, both with and without Copp in the lineup. I didn't include the Toronto game on Dec 27 as McLellan was named coach earlier that day and didn't have the chance to coach the team prior to that game.

Red Wings record with McLellan + Copp in the lineup

• 15 wins, 2 OTL, 4 losses
• 1.52 points per game

This stretch included wins against Washington, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Florida, Tampa, Los Angeles, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.

Red Wings record with McLellan but without Copp in the lineup

• 5 wins, 0 OTL, 11 losses
• 0.63 points per game

The only wins were against Anaheim, Buffalo, Vegas (Knights coming off a back to back) and Utah.

I'm not sure how much 'credit' to give Copp for the strong start under McLellan - there could be a new coach bounce that played a role in the hot start- but I'd imagine Copp's absence is playing a role in the poor performance since his injury. The bad news is he's out for the season.

I wish we still had the angry reaction because this doesn’t fit my narrative of Copp being trash.

 

[DangerMouse]

Copp is an underrated center. He’s not an ideal 2C but he can hold it down with solid results.

He’s the kind of Swiss Army knife that can move up and down your lineup. He also does the little things that make life easier for his linemates.

Solid player and we’re better with him in the lineup.

Also people bitch about the contract but I’m not even sure he is overpaid

Copp was overpaid given the previous salary cap, but will be appropriately paid (under?) for the last two years of it under the new cap. Wings may even have suitors for him in the offseason.