Blue Jays Discussion: The Hunt For the Pennant is On: Meaningful Jays Ball in September

[EpochLink]

He was excellent the year after his MVP and very good two years after. And he's been flat out dominant since the end of July this year.

I hope he can get it together next year, there's a lot left in him.

Matt Harvey guarantees he will pitch in the playoffs...diva much?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Man, Revere was a spectacular pickup. Adds so much to this lineup it's not even funny.

 

[King Mapes]

Man, Revere was a spectacular pickup. Adds so much to this lineup it's not even funny.

Ya it's nice having that speed infront of the big boys.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Man, Revere was a spectacular pickup. Adds so much to this lineup it's not even funny.

For someone who gets so many hits, that sub 100 wRC+ is most certainly spectacularly perplexing.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Don't look now but Jays 4 games behind Kansas!

 

[BertCorbeau]

Catching Kansas City doesn't mean anything unless the Jays can stay ahead of the Yankees

Until the Jays are 3 games or more up on New York, I'd not bother with KC

 

[dredeye]

i think the plan is to have sanchez as a starter next season. he was 5-4 with a 3.55 era (same # wins a shelby miller) as a starter this season. bullpen help is pretty easy to find imo. the rotation next yr, imo hopefully is price, stroman, sanchez, hutch, estrada

You can pretty much bank on dickey's option being picked up.

 

[A1LeafNation]

price
stroman
sanchez
dickey
hutch

 

[Canada4Gold]

No chance we bring him from high A to the majors this early. Most likely we see him next in Arizona fall league.

He's got to be on the 40 man next year to avoid being eligible for the rule 5 draft. So I was thinking maybe that's how they got him to quit football. A guarentee of being put on the 40 now and being called up for an MLB paycheck and some pinch running duties.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Is there anyway to view a players WAR when they're only playing a certain position. Like Colabello's WAR in games he plays 1st for example?

Colabello is still bad defensively at 1st, but he was putrid in the outfield and it really brings down his WAR because of it. His defense would have less of an anchor effect on his WAR if we only look at his 1st base games I think, but I have no way to check.

none of the guys whith knowledge of these advanced stats websites can help with this? It's probably not possible.

I can find his offensive and defensive stats as a 1B and LF(his 1B offensive stats are better and more sustainable btw, but it could be SSS), but I'm not great at calculating fWAR from that, I was hoping I could find it online since their offensive stats have been broken up based on position on fangraphs.

 

[93LEAFS]

He's got to be on the 40 man next year to avoid being eligible for the rule 5 draft. So I was thinking maybe that's how they got him to quit football. A guarentee of being put on the 40 now and being called up for an MLB paycheck and some pinch running duties.

I think more his issues drove him from football more than anything we did, but maybe it happens just very rare for a guy to get called up on a contending team (even in Sept) straight from high A. Especially when we have a very similar but more advanced version of him in Pompey. He will clearly be on the 40 man if he already needs Rule 5 protection, donno if that means he gets a call up now. He's played alot in the last year between the Australian league stint and a full season in the minors. Just wondering but is this a theory of yours or something you heard/read somewhere?

 

[King Mapes]

Catching Kansas City doesn't mean anything unless the Jays can stay ahead of the Yankees

Until the Jays are 3 games or more up on New York, I'd not bother with KC

I'm not even bothering looking at New York. Just get out there and win. If they continue winning every series, they will win the division. Just do their thing. It's funny 2-3 weeks ago, I was called crazy for thinking we could catch KC (we were 7 back then). We can. But that likely means a Yankees matchup first round, if we finish first. I think Id rather Houston.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think more his issues drove him from football more than anything we did, but maybe it happens just very rare for a guy to get called up on a contending team (even in Sept) straight from high A. Especially when we have a very similar but more advanced version of him in Pompey. He will clearly be on the 40 man if he already needs Rule 5 protection, donno if that means he gets a call up now. He's played alot in the last year between the Australian league stint and a full season in the minors. Just wondering but is this a theory of yours or something you heard/read somewhere?

Mostly speculation. There's been a fair bit of speculation that maybe we promised him something to get him to quit football, and since he needs to be on the 40 man soon it makes sense. His running could be useful down the stretch. The other day we could have used a pinch runner after we had used Pompey but there were nobody else with that speed on the bench.

There's no real downside to it, he has to be on the 40 during the offseason to protect him then so might as well do it now, and once he's on there he can be on the team now so it's not illogical or anything.

I wouldn't expect it, but it's a possibility.

 

[93LEAFS]

Mostly speculation. There's been a fair bit of speculation that maybe we promised him something to get him to quit football, and since he needs to be on the 40 man soon it makes sense. His running could be useful down the stretch. The other day we could have used a pinch runner after we had used Pompey but there were nobody else with that speed on the bench.

There's no real downside to it, he has to be on the 40 during the offseason to protect him then so might as well do it now, and once he's on there he can be on the team now so it's not illogical or anything.

I wouldn't expect it, but it's a possibility.

are you sure he has to be Rule 5 protected, quickly doing the math I don't think he's eligible til 2017. He was drafted at 18 in 2012 which means he has 5 years protection from the rule 5 draft, so far we have only passed 3 Rule 5 drafts if I'm correct.

Edit: Wouldn't have to be protected til the December 2016 Rule 5 draft.

 

[Canada4Gold]

You're actually correct. I was thinking the rule 5 draft was in 2016 and was looking at the 2016 table(on bluebirdbanter). Alford is good for another year which pretty much negates any chance he'd be put on the 40 now.

This id good news though because there's a bunch of guys in the 2016 listt hat I want to keep but it'd be too early for the 40 man.

Dwight Smith Jr, and Matt Dean are the only notables on the 2015 list that aren't on the 40 yet.

 

[93LEAFS]

You're actually correct. I was thinking the rule 5 draft was in 2016 and was looking at the 2016 table(on bluebirdbanter). Alford is good for another year which pretty much negates any chance he'd be put on the 40 now.

This id good news though because there's a bunch of guys in the 2016 listt hat I want to keep but it'd be too early for the 40 man.

Dwight Smith Jr, and Matt Dean are the only notables on the 2015 list that aren't on the 40 yet.

Yea, having to make calls on players like Davis, Smoral and Nay right now would be annoying.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yea, having to make calls on players like Davis, Smoral and Nay right now would be annoying.

having to waste a spot on the 40 with Urena would be annoying too. He's too good of a prospect to let go, but he's not close yet so having him there for 2-3 years while he develops wouldn't be fun. Now we can wait a full year.

 

[Bjindaho]

none of the guys whith knowledge of these advanced stats websites can help with this? It's probably not possible.

I can find his offensive and defensive stats as a 1B and LF(his 1B offensive stats are better and more sustainable btw, but it could be SSS), but I'm not great at calculating fWAR from that, I was hoping I could find it online since their offensive stats have been broken up based on position on fangraphs.

Most sites don't break down WAR that way...that being said, he is an atrocious 1B defensively, who actually hits well enough to play there (ie he needs to work hard at it in the offseason).

The closest I see is looking at depth charts on fangraphs (which only does the list 100 PA or so for a position) which has had him at 0.0 over his last 14 AB at 1B.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Most sites don't break down WAR that way...that being said, he is an atrocious 1B defensively, who actually hits well enough to play there (ie he needs to work hard at it in the offseason).

The closest I see is looking at depth charts on fangraphs (which only does the list 100 PA or so for a position) which has had him at 0.0 over his last 14 AB at 1B.

he's bad at 1st, but not as brutal as he was in the outfield. I made a similar reply 5 or 6 pages ago when I made the post originally last night.

His UZR/150 at 1st is around -11, in LF it's like -40.

1st base does have a worse positional adjustment than left field(I'm fairly certain anyway, I haven't checked), but his UZR/150 at 1st is -11.6, while in LF it's -40.3. The negative impact his fielding would have on his WAR in LF overcomes the positive the positional portion has from playing left instead of 1st.

I did a rough calculation a few weeks back based on pro-rating his 1st base defense into the entire season and his fWAR would almost increase by a full point, but I'd like a more definitive answer which I could get if I could split his WAR based on the position he was playing at said time.

His defense wouldn't be as big of a anchor on his WAR at 1st, but I'd like to have actual numbers to support that instead of an estimate, and 14 AB's isn't really enough.

The best I can do is look August/September data(hasn't played LF since we acquired Revere), where he's at 0.7 fWAR in 51 PA's, for the full season he's at 0.7 fWAR in 308 PA's, so pre trade deadline he was replacement level in 257 PA's(Mostly in the outfield), and post he's 0.7 in 51 playing all 1st base and DH.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the defensive components of his fWAR by Month, pre-trade deadline he was -15.9 in 65 games which is like -1.6 fWAR because 10 runs for 1 win is the rule of thumb. Most of those games were in left, though he did play less LF and more 1B in July and his defensive portion is much better in July.

So -1.6 fWAR in LF in 65 games defense only.

-3.2 in 18 games in August/September, which is -0.3 fWAR in 18 games defense only. Pro-rated to 65 games that would be -1.1.

So in 65 games his WAR would be 0.5 better at 1st, over 162 games that's 1.2 better WAR just from playing 1st base instead of left field.

It's not perfect, because some of those pre-August games he was playing some 1st base, mainly in July when the defensive portion wasn't as bad, so I actually think he could gain more than 1.2 WAR over 162, but it's pretty close.

 

[trellaine201]

Interesting FA Marco Estrada. Apparently these stats say he's been a bit lucky. I don't really get into stats other than wins at the end of the day but here is a link.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/free-agent-stock-watch-marco-estrada.html

As for watching him this year I think he's been excellent.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the July breakdown of games, he played 13 games as 1B, DH or PH(without going into the field), and 4 as LF so it'd probably make more sense to put July as a 1B month. If we do that then it goes like this

LF - 48 games, -1.24 fWAR on defense
1B/DH - 35 games, -0.67 fWAR on defense

Prorate both to 162 games, and we get

-4.19 fWAR on defense in LF
-3.10 fWAR on defense at 1st

which means about 1.1 fWAR better over a full season if he's playing at 1st instead of left.

I would still prefer is I could find the actual splits instead of guestimating based on around the time his switch from mostly LF to mostly 1st happened.

 

[93LEAFS]

Interesting FA Marco Estrada. Apparently these stats say he's been a bit lucky. I don't really get into stats other than wins at the end of the day but here is a link.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/free-agent-stock-watch-marco-estrada.html

As for watching him this year I think he's been excellent.

He's been lucky but fly ball guys always depend a bit on it. Whatever luck we've gotten through Estrada has been balanced out by the bad luck Hutch has had.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Estrada has been extremely lucky. Worst K rate of his career, worst BB rate of his career. Buoyed by an extremely low unsustainable BABIP, and a HR/FB rate well below his career norm despite coming to this hitters ballpark.

His ERA really shouldn't be this low, and despite being thrilled with the results he's had to this point, I don't want to sign him this offseason as he should regress, and regress hard. We could likely get a pitcher of Estrada's level for very cheap if we look for one who's been unlucky this past year so we could buy low instead of buying high with Estrada.

 

[tooproforyou]

anyone know where i can buy the style of cap Estrada was wearing in his interview today? The one with the white front and rest of the cap is blue? I've tried looking and I don't see New Era carrying it