Blue Jays Discussion: The Good-bye Loup Version

[kb]

Even if 2-4 make an impact that’s a success. The fact that they’re succeeding in close proximity to the bigs is a plus.

When you look at when they were drafted and how they are performing today, very few scream impact players. I like a few of them, but we have to remember that other organizations are regularly churn out impact players/stars and the only real consistent star produced in the last decade was traded for Dickey.

 

[kb]

SRF and Borucki mid-rotation guys if health warrants. Murphy has a chance to be a #5 starter. Jansen will be a first division starting catcher, if health warrants. Alford\Davis\Tellez are lottery tickets that have graduated past Double-A, while Romano is a lottery ticket in Double-A.

That's a pretty good group of assets, regardless of who acquired them. Its disingenuous to really think otherwise.

The two extreme sides of the argument have engaged in an intellectually dishonest discussion. There's very clear positives to both front offices, and very clear negatives as well.

No, it really isn't disingenuous. I'm just not as high on most of these players being regulars, let alone stars. If I am proven wrong, I will be happy. Jansen needs his bat to play up as his D and arm are still a work in progress. Mid/late rotation starters are nice, but not going to win you championships. An entire decade with the only consistent star player developed now playing for the Mets.

 

[kb]

Just curious, does that also mean Shapiro doesn't get credit for Jose Ramirez who had only had 1hr and a .763ops in AAA and .631ops in the MLB when he left since he hadn't yet broken out?

I'm almost getting the sense that you'd be happy for these guys to fail to validate your pathological hatred of the previous front office.

Sure, but I am giving Jansen his props as an AA draft. Contrary to popular belief, I am simply playing devil's advocate. Truth be told, they both have their failings. I just don't think that one should be put on a pedestal for failing to win anything, and spending most prospect capital on players who were old, broken, and had no control - except for the old and broken ones. Nothing to show for it. I loved AAs ballsiness even as I disagreed with it. But let's not kid ourselves, he left this organization old, broken, and with a bottom 5 prospect pool.

 

[phillipmike]

Agreed. The narrative of the barren farm system due to trades is not fully accurate. The farm became barren due to bad drafting for 2 years. You can blame AA for hiring Parker, but I don't see a lot wrong with trading prospects like Norris and Hoffman, who we had clearly soured on, outside of who else we could have gotten in return.

Yup, in fact you can probably applaud him for recognizing which of the two players from the 3 drafts would be most valuable to trade (Graveman and Boyd). He extracted the most value from the least amount that was given to him. Now if anyone wants to make the argument that who he traded for rather than what he traded was/is an issue then i dont see a problem in that - a valid argument can be made.

 

[Garlando]

To you, not to me. It was a pointless endeavour because in my opinion, I really didn't think they had a good enough team to go all the way at the time. Of course, in hindsight, time has proven me 100% correct. They won nothing. It was a waste of assets by not keeping what they had and trading off to replenish the system. They could have been competing this year with a young club had they done the smart move and cashed in their aging chips instead of going all in.

I’m shocked that there is some suggestion that AA’s work to give the Jays at least a two year window wasn’t worth it just because they didn’t end up winning the World Series. Remember where the franchise was when he took over after JP Riccardi, it was a wasteland of talent and bloated contracts (Vernon Wells, Alex Rios etc.) and he slowly but surly rebuilt both the farm system and the MLB roster up with higher ceiling talent. He notably doubled the size of the scouting department to 54 in 2010 and it led to drafting talents like Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. He also took chances on higher ceiling players that had fallen out of favour with their respective organizations like Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus and Brandon Morrow. Those players may not have been a part of the successful 2015/2016 teams, but they raised the talent level of the organization. He then made the famous deal with the Marlins which was a steal both at the time and in hindsight as none of the players that he sent to Miami have turned into anything while a guy like Mark Buehrle was a good veteran arm to both provide stability in the rotation and mentor the Jays young arms like Stroman. The R.A. Dickey deal looks bad in hindsight, and really it wasn’t great at the time either with Syndergaard a top 100 prospect (according to MLB Prospect watch, he was the #83 overall and the #2 prospect in the system behind Sanchez who was #38 overall and ahead of Justin Nicolino who was ranked 86th overall). I understood AA taking the shot on Dickey though, he was coming off of an NL Cy Young award and obviously presumed to be a top level arm, and he thought the team was going to be competitive after the Marlins deal and the thought of adding a top arm would be enticing. It didn’t work out as planned but every GM has those deals that they wish they could take back.

Next up was the 2014 offseason in which he learned the value of leadership and defence and it led to the signing of Russell Martin who has brought stability to the C position that the Jays lacked for soooooo long before. His contract hangs over them now, but he was a valuable part of the team success in 2015/2016 and still provides value with his glove. He then made the deal with Oakland that brought a future MVP talent to the team and changed the complexion of the organization from a pretender to a legit team. He then made then made the Tulowitzki deal with the Rockies which stabilized the middle infield defensively and gave us another power bat. David Price was acquired shortly after and while he didn’t perform in the playoffs, he was considered a true ace at the time and in theory gave the team a stud that they were missing beforehand. The result was a Blue Jays team that had a case as the best team in the league by far, as they paced the league in Run differential while having the toughest strength of schedule of any playoff team, a 1.6 Simple Rating system which was far and away the best in the league (simple rating system is the number of runs a team is better or worse than league average), and had the best Pythagorean win-loss record by far as well. The 2015 Blue Jays were an INCREDIBLE team and deserved a better fate, but that’s playoff baseball. Anthopolus left the organization that offseason after ownership brought in Mark Shapiro.

To put it another way, in 2008 the year before Anthopolus was hired (hired in the 2009 offseason), the Jays position players accrued 16.1 WAR and the pitchers accrued 23.3 WAR (51% of the WAR that year came from Halladay and Burnett on their own) for a total of 39.4 WAR.

In 2015 when he left the organization, the Jays position players accrued 35.8 WAR (7.2 WAR more than any other team) and the pitchers accrued 14.4 WAR for a total of 50.2 WAR.

Anthopolus added 10.8 WAR to the organization over his tenure plus gave the new management group a year of contention while having some interesting prospects leftover in the lower-levels of the system. The Jays were a joke when he started with dwindling attendance outside of Doc starts, and he made the team relevant again. He was a terrific GM and easily one of the best in the franchise history and his efforts were 100% worth the upper level exodus of prospects.

 

[Eyedea]

When you look at when they were drafted and how they are performing today, very few scream impact players. I like a few of them, but we have to remember that other organizations are regularly churn out impact players/stars and the only real star produced in the last decade was traded for Dickey.

Really? Because Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, and Osuna have had impact performances. Gurriel has impact potential, alongside Vlad, Bo, Jansen, SRF, and the slew of lotto tickets in behind them.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

No, it really isn't disingenuous. I'm just not as high on most of these players being regulars, let alone stars. If I am proven wrong, I will be happy. Jansen needs his bat to play up as his D and arm are still a work in progress. Mid/late rotation starters are nice, but not going to win you championships. An entire decade with the only star player developed now playing for the Mets.

Disingenuous in the sense that, whether it be to prove a point within this given argument, or out of a genuine dislike for the former GM, you're choosing to see the negatives or discount said players.

Marcus Stroman is a three time 3+ fWAR starter, and a 5.7 bWAR starter in 2017. That is a star. Ditto for Sanchez (5.1 bWAR in 2016).

Osuna is the war leader for any reliever in the modern era through age 23. He is a superstar.

Danny Jansen is projected by steamer to be 104 wRC+ hitter now. His defense is average. He's essentially Kurt Suzuki, today, and is still developing.

Mid to late rotation starters are profoundly valuable. The Jays just traded one, and people were genuinely upset by the return (on both the Yankees and Jays side).

 

[Judas Tavares]

I’m shocked that there is some suggestion that AA’s work to give the Jays at least a two year window wasn’t worth it just because they didn’t end up winning the World Series. Remember where the franchise was when he took over after JP Riccardi, it was a wasteland of talent and bloated contracts (Vernon Wells, Alex Rios etc.) and he slowly but surly rebuilt both the farm system and the MLB roster up with higher ceiling talent. He notably doubled the size of the scouting department to 54 in 2010 and it led to drafting talents like Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. He also took chances on higher ceiling players that had fallen out of favour with their respective organizations like Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus and Brandon Morrow. Those players may not have been a part of the successful 2015/2016 teams, but they raised the talent level of the organization. He then made the famous deal with the Marlins which was a steal both at the time and in hindsight as none of the players that he sent to Miami have turned into anything while a guy like Mark Buehrle was a good veteran arm to both provide stability in the rotation and mentor the Jays young arms like Stroman. The R.A. Dickey deal looks bad in hindsight, and really it wasn’t great at the time either with Syndergaard a top 100 prospect (according to MLB Prospect watch, he was the #83 overall and the #2 prospect in the system behind Sanchez who was #38 overall and ahead of Justin Nicolino who was ranked 86th overall). I understood AA taking the shot on Dickey though, he was coming off of an NL Cy Young award and obviously presumed to be a top level arm, and he thought the team was going to be competitive after the Marlins deal and the thought of adding a top arm would be enticing. It didn’t work out as planned but every GM has those deals that they wish they could take back.

Next up was the 2014 offseason in which he learned the value of leadership and defence and it led to the signing of Russell Martin who has brought stability to the C position that the Jays lacked for soooooo long before. His contract hangs over them now, but he was a valuable part of the team success in 2015/2016 and still provides value with his glove. He then made the deal with Oakland that brought a future MVP talent to the team and changed the complexion of the organization from a pretender to a legit team. He then made then made the Tulowitzki deal with the Rockies which stabilized the middle infield defensively and gave us another power bat. David Price was acquired shortly after and while he didn’t perform in the playoffs, he was considered a true ace at the time and in theory gave the team a stud that they were missing beforehand. The result was a Blue Jays team that had a case as the best team in the league by far, as they paced the league in Run differential while having the toughest strength of schedule of any playoff team, a 1.6 Simple Rating system which was far and away the best in the league (simple rating system is the number of runs a team is better or worse than league average), and had the best Pythagorean win-loss record by far as well. The 2015 Blue Jays were an INCREDIBLE team and deserved a better fate, but that’s playoff baseball. Anthopolus left the organization that offseason after ownership brought in Mark Shapiro.

To put it another way, in 2008 the year before Anthopolus was hired (hired in the 2009 offseason), the Jays position players accrued 16.1 WAR and the pitchers accrued 23.3 WAR (51% of the WAR that year came from Halladay and Burnett on their own) for a total of 39.4 WAR.

In 2015 when he left the organization, the Jays position players accrued 35.8 WAR (7.2 WAR more than any other team) and the pitchers accrued 14.4 WAR for a total of 50.2 WAR.

Anthopolus added 10.8 WAR to the organization over his tenure plus gave the new management group a year of contention while having some interesting prospects leftover in the lower-levels of the system. The Jays were a joke when he started with dwindling attendance outside of Doc starts, and he made the team relevant again. He was a terrific GM and easily one of the best in the franchise history and his efforts were 100% worth the upper level exodus of prospects.

I honestly wouldn't change a thing that led to 2015 and 2016. Well the Dickey trade was awful, but one way to look at it is that no one else really panned out from the other trades, so as a whole, pretend Noah was dealt for someone else you mentioned above.

I hate the state we are in now, but it was worth it for the runs in the sense that, would we really be that much better today with those failed prospects and Noah on the DL every minute? Tough to tell but I'd be shocked.

And the situation we are in now could have been mitigated if this group (but more likely the Rogers bosses) had properly sold off when it was time aka a year ago.

I hate to bring up the regime argument as I know the board is trying to get away with it. But both regimes had (have) their faults. And hey, I do love the raising of the floor by this regime. I really do. It means that when it is time to compete, we aren't brought down by the Goins and Barneys of the world.

But in the end to me, the belittling of 2015 and 2016 is shocking. Not having made the playoffs in 2.5 decades would be a joke. Again I mention, this the MLB, not the NHL. If you have a chance to go for it and you aren't one of the big boys, you better go for it.

You can build up the farm all you want, but if the farm leads to decades of nothing, what's the point? then take your shot when you have it. No, don't trade Vlad and Bo for McCutchen and Posey, but don't lament trading our 10th ranked prospect who may only have a cup of coffee in the MLB if it means bringing you closer to winning.

 

[zeke]

The two extreme sides of the argument have engaged in an intellectually dishonest discussion. There's very clear positives to both front offices, and very clear negatives as well.

this argument was not about both front offices - just about AA.

and only one side is presenting disingenuous arguments here.

 

[Mike Jones]

I had a chance to watch the Jays' game last night and came away thinking that this Houseboat guy was a nice signing. As much as I'm still a little unsure of what to make of Atkins I must say that he has to be one of the better dumpster diving GMs in the league.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

this argument was not about both front offices - just about AA.

and only one side is presenting disingenuous arguments here.

The last few pages have most certainly seen more offending on that side of the argument. The other side is by no means innocent when one views a larger sample.

Wilful ignorance (more accurately described as artificial aloofness) from some otherwise intelligent people.

 

[Nineteen67]

Disingenuous in the sense that, whether it be to prove a point within this given argument, or out of a genuine dislike for the former GM, you're choosing to see the negatives or discount said players.

Marcus Stroman is a three time 3+ fWAR starter, and a 5.7 bWAR starter in 2017. That is a star. Ditto for Sanchez (5.1 bWAR in 2016).

Osuna is the war leader for any reliever in the modern era through age 23. He is a superstar.

Danny Jansen is projected by steamer to be 104 wRC+ hitter now. His defense is average. He's essentially Kurt Suzuki, today, and is still developing.

Mid to late rotation starters are profoundly valuable. The Jays just traded one, and people were genuinely upset by the return (on both the Yankees and Jays side).

In 2017 How can he have such a discrepancy between fwar 3.4 v bwar 5.7?

 

[dredeye]

Question I've always been curious about:

Does the actual, physical Jays store in Rogers Centre sell player T-Shirts for the whole roster? Because if you go online to the Jays Shop, you can only get a handful of prominent players (Stroman, Sanchez, Donaldson, Estrada, Morales, Tulo, Travis, Pillar, Martin) but I know I've seen other guys (I'm pretty sure at one point I've seen a Jason Grilli shirt and that was never available online)

So like is it possible to get, say, a Grichuk or Gurriel player T at the stadium? Or are the oddball shirts something special or knockoffs or whatnot?

I was at a game last week and as always it’s not whoever you want. At least on display you can’t find them.

 

[kb]

this argument was not about both front offices - just about AA.

and only one side is presenting disingenuous arguments here.

I'm glad you see your side finally.

As I said, I am not anti AA. I thought he did a pretty good job overall except for his Dickey, Miami, and to a lesser extent - Colorado - trades. Getting not one single decent younger controllable assets back in any of those 3 trades that is a farce. He made good trades like the steal for Donaldson.

But the disingenuous one is the one who puts AA on a pedestal and takes potshots at nearly every move that is made today.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

In 2017 How can he have such a discrepancy between fwar 3.4 v bwar 5.7?

fWAR values strikeouts highly, or more specifically, the percentage of outs a pitcher achieves independently. While bWAR credits the entire performance, independent of how said pitch achieves their results (IFFB%, GB%, etc.). Warp is similar to fWAR. If you were to place them on a spectrum, it would be as so:

(Strikeouts) ----- WARP ------ fWAR --------------------------- bWAR --- (contact based outs)

 

[kb]

The last few pages have most certainly seen more offending on that side of the argument. The other side is by no means innocent when one views a larger sample.

Wilful ignorance (more accurately described as artificial aloofness) from some otherwise intelligent people.

Exactly. And here is the thing. There is as much or more willful ignorance from the other side. ie - "common knowledge" used as a defense where specifics were required. I like a lot of the things that AA did, and in fact was sad to see him depart.....just like I was sad to see Brian Burke depart.

But I digress. All that to say I am not impressed with 2 playoff appearances and no success at the expense of any hope of sustainable success/contention.

 

[Eyedea]

fWAR is FIP based, bWAR is ERA based. Think of RA9-WAR as FG’s equivalent to the bWAR stat.

 

[Nineteen67]

fWAR values strikeouts highly, or more specifically, the percentage of outs a pitcher achieves independently. While bWAR credits the entire performance, independent of how said pitch achieves their results (IFFB%, GB%, etc.). Warp is similar to fWAR. If you were to place them on a spectrum, it would be as so:

(Strikeouts) ----- WARP ------ fWAR --------------------------- bWAR --- (contact based outs)

Thanks. Makes sense.

Personally I want to know how many outs were made by K, weak contact and hard contact.

Same with hits allowed

 

[TF97]

Question I've always been curious about:

Does the actual, physical Jays store in Rogers Centre sell player T-Shirts for the whole roster? Because if you go online to the Jays Shop, you can only get a handful of prominent players (Stroman, Sanchez, Donaldson, Estrada, Morales, Tulo, Travis, Pillar, Martin) but I know I've seen other guys (I'm pretty sure at one point I've seen a Jason Grilli shirt and that was never available online)

So like is it possible to get, say, a Grichuk or Gurriel player T at the stadium? Or are the oddball shirts something special or knockoffs or whatnot?

When I was there a few weeks back, they had most of the roster. Last year, they even had Barney and Goins shirts for sale.

I asked an employee about Gurriel shirts, she told me that they had some, but only a limited amount. When a player is new to the team and isn’t a huge name, they make a small amount to start and if they sell quick, they will make more.

There’s also a few stores near the Rogers Centre that sold players you don’t see everywhere as well (Granderson, Happ, etc)

 

[Garlando]

Somewhat related but I guy a colleague of mine went to a Reds game for his bachelor party and couldn't find a Votto Jersey:

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Top 10 farm systems in MLB

5. Blue Jays
Preseason rank: 9
Top 100 Prospects (5): 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (No. 1), SS/2B Bo Bichette (No. 9), C Danny Jansen (No. 73), RHP Nate Pearson (No. 90), OF Anthony Alford (No. 92)
Blue Jays Top 30 list
Prospect points: 240 (7th)
Guerrero is the best prospect in baseball and Bichette isn't far off. While those sons of former big league stars hog most of the spotlight in the Jays system, there's also plenty of promising pitchers such as Pearson and RHPs Eric Pardinho, Sean Reid-Foley and recent trade acquisition Hector Perez. 3B/SS Jordan Groshans and RHP Adam Kloffenstein, teammates at Magnolia (Texas) High, highlight a strong 2018 Draft.

 

[phillipmike]

Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: One of my favorite players in the 2018 draft class was Jordan Groshans, high school infielder from Magnolia, Texas. In the pre-draft report I mentioned that he seemed lost in the shuffle of high school bats when it came to mock drafts but that his power, defense, and overall athleticism really stood out, noting that “Jordan is generally mocked in the supplemental or second round but it would not surprise me to see him go earlier than that.”

Indeed, that happened, with Groshans going 12th-overall to the Toronto Blue Jays. And so far that looks like a terrific choice: he’s hitting .380/.439/.593 with four homers, 12 walks, and 19 strikeouts in 108 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League. I put a “young David Wright” comp on Groshans a few days ago. It seems early to make that sort of call, but, well, I believe. Your mileage may vary.

Sickels also provided an update of his pre-season top 20 list;

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 prospects for 2018: mid-season review

Sickels says he "loves" Groshans and would give him a B+ which would put him inside our top 5 prospects.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Other than going to a few live games I only watch Jays games. Playoffs included. Can’t remember the last WS game I’ve watched

With the Leafs looking like they’ll at least be interesting for the next few years the Jays will be able to slide under the radar during their rebuild. As long as they don’t do anything too ridiculous no one will know they’re in town

Really? I really like watching the championship series and world series. Its so intense, esp in elimination games.

The crowds are great, the narratives and matchups are great.

I really like playoff baseball

 

[Bluelines]

fWAR is FIP based, bWAR is ERA based. Think of RA9-WAR as FG’s equivalent to the bWAR stat.

I love when the amateur stat "experts" that use stats as reference proof to support their bias but they can't agree on which stat is appropriate.

Lets just settle on Win/Loss as the measuring stick for pitchers.